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PipsAccumulator

  • #81
  • Sep 22, 2021 5:43am Sep 22, 2021 5:43am
Quoting wilson
Just open up your data window in MT4 or MT5 and compare the 5 vs 10 MAs thereby confirming if there is a cross or not. Different brokers have slightly different prices and thus the EMAs although it shouldn't vary much compared to what time your broker starts the new day at.
Fantastic idea, why didn't I think of that?

How do you read this data then; did the 5 EMA below the 10 EMA on the 21 September Closed?

Your knowledge is very valuable, thanks for sharing.

Cheers

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  • #82
  • Sep 22, 2021 7:26am Sep 22, 2021 7:26am
Quoting Erebus
My observation of the entry condition of 1-pip is that I find that in my experience, that is too small of a tolerance. In no way do I mean this as a criticism of the method; I reckon it works fine. But I have seen time and time again, trades can be triggered only a few pips beyond a day that has just closed, and then totally reverse. This is not a problem if the trend is strong enough to continue the trend later on in the day. My criteria would usually be a percentage of the ADR as each pair is different or a lower time frame close beyond low or...
One bad trade does not invalidate PIPSACUMULATOR. The win rate is about 75%
We have factored the losing trades into the system. If this trade ends in a loss, another trade will make the money back.
The few home runs are the key to mega profiits
  • #83
  • Sep 22, 2021 7:28am Sep 22, 2021 7:28am
My mouse is on yesterday's bar as indicated by the Date in the data window. MA(5) is 1.269090 vs 1.269640 for MA(10). So did it cross down? Yes, so I don't place the stop trade there.
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  • #84
  • Sep 22, 2021 7:37am Sep 22, 2021 7:37am
Quoting wilson
My mouse is on yesterday's bar as indicated by the Date in the data window. MA(5) is 1.269090 vs 1.269640 for MA(10). So did it cross down? Yes, so I don't place the stop trade there. {image}
Broker effects. My broker data is slightly different.
However since 5ema crssed belowb 10ema on your chart, wait and continue to watch out for higher high to generate your short entry parameters.
  • #85
  • Sep 22, 2021 7:49am Sep 22, 2021 7:49am
Quoting bpola
{quote} Broker effects. My broker data is slightly different. However since 5ema crssed belowb 10ema on your chart, wait and continue to watch out for higher high to generate your short entry parameters.
Yes definitely broker's feed and to a greater extent, the different time my broker crosses over to a new day thus affecting the daily bar's opening and closing prices. So back test using the data from your charts as you are relying on them for signals and entries.
  • #86
  • Sep 22, 2021 8:31am Sep 22, 2021 8:31am
Quoting wilson
{quote} Yes definitely broker's feed and to a greater extent, the different time my broker crosses over to a new day thus affecting the daily bar's opening and closing prices. So back test using the data from your charts as you are relying on them for signals and entries.
Please check while using EMA settings as per the OP rules

Thank you
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  • #87
  • Sep 22, 2021 2:24pm Sep 22, 2021 2:24pm
Been a wild ride today with Powell and gang in the new.s. 3.5% drawdown is excessive for a single day loss.
Though PIPSACUMULATOR looks steady after today's hit, I will look to make it more robust in backend and provide updates if I can find a way to improve the results.
Meanwhile I keep trading the system as given
  • #88
  • Sep 22, 2021 2:26pm Sep 22, 2021 2:26pm
More updates after the daily close
  • #89
  • Sep 22, 2021 3:27pm Sep 22, 2021 3:27pm
Is it just me or are there a ton of set ups forming?
  • #90
  • Sep 22, 2021 4:11pm Sep 22, 2021 4:11pm
The drawdown today was excessive. I deleted all pending orders to filter them. You can still follow my setup from the trade explorer.
  • #91
  • Edited 9:02pm Sep 22, 2021 7:30pm | Edited 9:02pm
Quoting bpola
One bad trade does not invalidate PIPSACUMULATOR. The win rate is about 75% …
A 75% Win-Rate with a 3:1 Risk-to-Reward Ratio won’t take us anywhere …
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What will the win-rate be if pipcumulator only uses TP2?

Note: With 1:3-RRR, any win-rate > 25% will make the system a profitable one …
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #92
  • Sep 22, 2021 7:45pm Sep 22, 2021 7:45pm
Quoting BataviaTrade
Is it just me or are there a ton of setups forming?
Definitely, and GOLD looks very tempting, with a daily Pin Bar as well

I don't see any pending orders yet

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  • #93
  • Sep 22, 2021 9:10pm Sep 22, 2021 9:10pm
This will settle the EMA crossover timing issue



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File Type: ex4 EMA_Cross_Arrow_with_Alerts.ex4   12 KB | 675 downloads
File Type: mq4 EMA_Cross_Arrow_with_Alerts.mq4   4 KB | 688 downloads
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  • #94
  • Sep 22, 2021 9:47pm Sep 22, 2021 9:47pm
Quoting 4for4
{quote} A 75% Win-Rate with a 3:1 Risk-to-Reward Ratio won’t take us anywhere … {image} What will the win-rate be if pipcumulator only uses TP2? Note: With 1:3-RRR, any win-rate > 25% will make the system a profitable one …
Thanks for your beautiful analysis.
My experience with trsdtra PIPSACUMULATOR is that most of our trades will not hit the 3:1 profit target. A large % of the winners may only return 0.5:1.
These small wiins pay for the trades that end in losses.
But it is few home runs that reach the 3:1 profit Target that brings the real profits.

However with the 3.5% drawdown from yesterday,I have to reaccess the trade selection process.

I need to find a way to identify only trades that have a greater probability of reaching the 3'1 profit targets. These are the AAA trades.
And ignore all other setups that show less potential.

I guess this needs more work.
  • #95
  • Sep 22, 2021 9:55pm Sep 22, 2021 9:55pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Definitely, and GOLD looks very tempting, with a daily Pin Bar as well I don't see any pending orders yet
Yes Gold has generated a short siignalI
But I think the pullback from the previous low, may have gone too far to continue the down trenf andbto hit our 3:1 profit target.
I want to stick to only AAA setups that have the potential to hit at least a 2:1 profit target.
  • #96
  • Sep 22, 2021 9:57pm Sep 22, 2021 9:57pm
Quoting bpola
{quote} Thanks for your beautiful analysis. My experience with trsdtra PIPSACUMULATOR is that most of our trades will not hit the 3:1 profit target. A large % of the winners may only return 0.5:1. These small wiins pay for the trades that end in losses. But it is few home runs that reach the 3:1 profit Target that brings the real profits. However with the 3.5% drawdown from yesterday,I have to reaccess the trade selection process. I need to find a way to identify only trades that have a greater probability of reaching the 3'1 profit targets. These...
May I suggest playing one trade at a time while maximizing the 1%-Risk?
From my experience, multiple trades (of the same methodology) going for the same direction are more harmful to the account than beneficial when the direction suddenly changes like yesterday …
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #97
  • Sep 22, 2021 9:58pm Sep 22, 2021 9:58pm
That's why I did not take the gold short.
  • #98
  • Sep 22, 2021 10:10pm Sep 22, 2021 10:10pm
Quoting 4for4
{quote} May I suggest playing one trade at a time by maximizing the 1%-Risk? From my experience, multiple trades (of the same methodology) going for the same direction is more harmful to the account than beneficial when the direction suddenly changes like yesterday’s move …
I risk only 1% per direction but I take 2 equal positions of 0.5% each..
It's a tactic to automatically close 50% of the position at 1:1 profit target. The second leg of the trade is set to 3:1 profit target.

Am thinking of reducing the profit target to 2:1 and to use the full 1% on only one trade.
  • #99
  • Sep 22, 2021 10:17pm Sep 22, 2021 10:17pm
Erebus has some good pointers......1. if there are no new lows or new highs, you will miss a fast moving train north or south... 2. 1 pip above a candle for entry is too little....your trade will be triggered by the ask while the bid is still under the high of the candle....I suggest to add 10% of the daily ATR to the high of the candle and subtract the same from the low of the candle....

The EMA`s are slow to catch up if the daily candles are going up and down fast.....a lot of the trend has already passed you by by the time the EMA`s catch up.....and then you still have to wait for a new high/low....I suggest forgetting about the EMA`s altogether......
If I would trade this, I would wait for 2 daily candles going in a new direction and would enter if the high/low of the second candle +/- 10% of the daily ATR is broken....
You wont miss any trend....
  • #100
  • Sep 22, 2021 10:20pm Sep 22, 2021 10:20pm
Quoting bpola
… Am thinking of reducing the profit target to 2:1 and to use the full 1% on only one trade.
Hopefully the win-rate can go above 33.3% …
Market is not random but unpredictable
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