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The Swamp

  • #90,241
  • Sep 18, 2021 2:38pm Sep 18, 2021 2:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
Bitcoin broke a flag formation. The flagpole suggest it will test the day, and maybe the week bear trend. A tough road. the 8h through the week is still bearish. The 6 turned bullish a few days back. 15 min through 6h is bullish. others are on the chart. {image}
Bitcoin 1h chart, its testing 30 min support. 1h is looking flaggish.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,242
  • Sep 18, 2021 3:00pm Sep 18, 2021 3:00pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Ethereum looks less bullish, and less organized to rise. Even so, it may have its own flag. A move from Bitcoin should aid any Ethereum rise. Using the flag as a target. Ethereum may see 4,24x again. {image}
Ethereum beat 1h R earlier. Now test 1h S.. The 3 h s is just below the 1 h s.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,243
  • Sep 18, 2021 8:16pm Sep 18, 2021 8:16pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bitcoin 1h chart, its testing 30 min support. 1h is looking flaggish. {image}
30 min bulls didnt hold. 1h support looks to be tested. 30 min is bearish now, see chart for 30 min R, day 20 sma is being tested as support.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,244
  • Sep 18, 2021 8:24pm Sep 18, 2021 8:24pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} 9/14 COT report, hedge funds continued to add dollar longs and cut dollar shorts for the week {image}
why so tired? Wake up;
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,245
  • Edited 7:43am Sep 19, 2021 7:29am | Edited 7:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 30 min bulls didnt hold. 1h support looks to be tested. 30 min is bearish now, see chart for 30 min R, day 20 sma is being tested as support. {image}
1h gave up. 2h testing. 1h it did give a scalp. 1h support will have a new number as R, above the 30 min.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,246
  • Sep 19, 2021 8:51pm Sep 19, 2021 8:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1h gave up. 2h testing. 1h it did give a scalp. 1h support will have a new number as R, above the 30 min. {image} {image}
2h did have a bounce 0f 500$ ish on a bounce. Not so bad on a scalp, if one got out at the right time. Scalp for some profit or swing to a B.E. One would have got on first or better.

Chart 2 with 12h BB, center looks to be tested. Smaller BB 6h and less look to be bottoming. Against the trend one has to chose a spot (with a stop, no need to hold losers, if your spot breaks. you were wrong, close and move on. ). The week through 8 h are against longs. so is the 1h and 30 min.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,247
  • Sep 19, 2021 9:54pm Sep 19, 2021 9:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
If bears manage to work the flag south, and close the Q below 1709.. I think you can pack your bags. For a Southern ride. 1709 area should be treated as a big S. A Q close below may help it be hard R later.
re-testing 1709
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,248
  • Sep 19, 2021 9:59pm Sep 19, 2021 9:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 2h did have a bounce 0f 500$ ish on a bounce. Not so bad on a scalp, if one got out at the right time. Scalp for some profit or swing to a B.E. One would have got on first or better. Chart 2 with 12h BB, center looks to be tested. Smaller BB 6h and less look to be bottoming. Against the trend one has to chose a spot (with a stop, no need to hold losers, if your spot breaks. you were wrong, close and move on. ). The week through 8 h are against longs. so is the 1h and 30 min. {image} {image}
Bitcoin pa is testing 6h trend support, 8h BB. USD Bulls are on a terror..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,249
  • Sep 19, 2021 10:27pm Sep 19, 2021 10:27pm
Here is some insight on market participants
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_3_Pillars_Of_Our_Constructive_USD_View_-_CACIB.pdf   255 KB | 262 downloads
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_5_Key_Risks_For_Major_Central_Banks_Right_Now_-_TD_Securities.pdf   957 KB | 213 downloads
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_A_US_Real_Yield_Bounce_Supports_USD_-_Morgan_Stanley.pdf   939 KB | 188 downloads
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_ECB_Sep_PEPP_Decision_Potentially_Awkward_-_Morgan_Stanley.pdf   80 KB | 146 downloads
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_Entered_Long_GBPUSD_&_AUDUSD_As_Both_Oversold_-_CACIB.pdf   330 KB | 434 downloads
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_GBP_Should_Outperform_On_Crosses_With_Hawkish_BoE_-_Morgan_Stanley.pdf   1.2 MB | 172 downloads
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_Growth_&_Policy_&_Real_Yield_Divergence_To_Push_EURUSD_Lower_-_Morgan_Stanley.pdf   1.3 MB | 156 downloads
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_Interesting_Observation_With_USD_Data_Reflex_Reactions_-_HSBC.PDF   299 KB | 176 downloads
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_Signs_of_Peaking_Core_Inflation_But_Risks_Abound_-_TD_Securities.pdf   929 KB | 144 downloads
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_Slowing_Global_Growth_&_Fed_Normalization_Upside_Drivers_For_USD_-_HSBC.pdf   405 KB | 140 downloads
  • #90,250
  • Sep 19, 2021 10:53pm Sep 19, 2021 10:53pm
Positioning is much different than the last dot plot fomc meeting where there was the hawkish tilt from members projection wise ... and Clarida moved from Dove to Neutral with his recent hawkish comments, dot plot supposed to be good but not great
  • #90,251
  • Sep 19, 2021 11:01pm Sep 19, 2021 11:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Tough for bears in the shadow of 1709..adr 1781. awr 1853. pa stuck between the 2 larger s/r 1792/1709/ center at 1750.9. closes above 1792 are not wanted by bears. As long as above 1709, nobody is safe.. The same with -93.233 usdx {image}

eu testing 1709 while usdx 93.23 E test, Big levels as far as Q and year close goes. Older post has a typo, (92.23=93.23)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,252
  • Sep 19, 2021 11:18pm Sep 19, 2021 11:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}[/color] eu testing 1709 while usdx 93.23 E test, Big levels as far as Q and year close goes. Older post has a typo, (92.23=93.23)
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I don't trust this move done by big boys in Asian session. Although there is your big numbers here. I added more longs 1710. Let's see
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #90,253
  • Sep 19, 2021 11:26pm Sep 19, 2021 11:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}[/color] eu testing 1709 while usdx 93.23 E test, Big levels as far as Q and year close goes. Older post has a typo, (92.23=93.23)
.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,254
  • Sep 19, 2021 11:41pm Sep 19, 2021 11:41pm
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} {image}I don't trust this move done by big boys in Asian session. Although there is your big numbers here. I added more longs 1710. Let's see
I think it will eventually test 1492.. But I also think it can bounce in the area many times. I think it needs to close the year below 1598 and probably 1492 to continue lower. Until then, these areas have potential up swings. 1598 on the year. Q 164x/58. Different brokers with different Q levels. 1709 needs large closes below, for bears. The others are needed. too. Getting the timing right isn't easy.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,255
  • Edited 1:09am Sep 20, 2021 12:37am | Edited 1:09am
[quote=q_import;13706622]{quote} 1.36 is my target sell 1.41 is my target if they pull it up..
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I think it will eventually test 1492.. But I also think it can bounce in the area many times. I think it needs to close the year below 1598 and probably 1492 to continue lower. Until then, these areas have potential up swings. 1598 on the year. Q 164x/58. Different brokers with different Q levels. 1709 needs large closes below, for bears. The others are needed. too. Getting the timing right isn't easy.
It went 2 points and back off on GU hmm what do you think is going to happen next I am thinking buy..

Epairs Crosses need to reach target now. Possible ranging around while E pairs rise to targets..
  • #90,256
  • Sep 20, 2021 2:59am Sep 20, 2021 2:59am
Eur bearish in two systems.. testing day in system I
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  • #90,257
  • Sep 20, 2021 3:26am Sep 20, 2021 3:26am
fyi
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  • #90,258
  • Sep 20, 2021 4:06am Sep 20, 2021 4:06am
Quoting Boulder
fyi {image}
Getting Crosses to target will take
possible will see a ride to adr 1.16814
Tomorrow 1-2 days of possible spike ranging back to 17104 back to the low and back to 17104 the upside then a drop off on (Day 2)Wed or (Day3)Thursday
  • #90,259
  • Sep 20, 2021 4:46am Sep 20, 2021 4:46am
Quoting Boulder
Eur bearish in two systems.. testing day in system I {image} {image}
Added more longs 1.1701 against the trend. Hope for 1.1750 as a reaction to this strong support area. Maybe not good idea.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #90,260
  • Sep 20, 2021 5:26am Sep 20, 2021 5:26am
Quoting Boulder
Eur bearish in two systems.. testing day in system I {image} {image}
The same here trend wise. I'm not sure it wont bounce here. for Q3. I will wait it out mostly. i will try if it does bounce 184x/5x. I'm not so certain the trend is strong enough to get through 1598/164x/165x/1709. I think it will take several tries. It may not get past w/o a Fed rise/ or some strong usd catalyst news.

The pain here is, longing too close to 184x or shorting too close to 1709.. Scalpers can get killed here if they dont use a stop. Frog in a blender.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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