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vsa with Malcolm

  • #34,061
  • Sep 18, 2021 1:48pm Sep 18, 2021 1:48pm
Quoting Winston Reed
First it seems this is what VSA traders are looking for: In an uptrend: 1. Signs of weakness that might forecast a possible reversal of an uptrend to a downtrend. 2. Signs of strength that support uptrend continuation. In a downtrend: 1. Signs of strength that might forecast a possible reversal of a downtrend to an uptrend. 2. Signs of weakness that support downtrend continuation.
Brillant. Elegantly simple.

This also points to the "duality" that plagues many traders attempting to learn Volume Spread Analysis (VSA):

While VSA can and often does ferret out "tops and bottoms" (1), for most practitioners of VSA the higher probability entries are found with the trend (2).
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #34,062
  • Sep 18, 2021 2:10pm Sep 18, 2021 2:10pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} High volume, lack of volume, and bar formations at the right levels.
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1. Highest Volume bar for Wed. (using 1700 Tues. to 1700 Wed).

2. UP bar on volume less than the previous two bars: Lack of volume/Lack of willingness to buy (no buyers)

3. Down bar confirming the No Demand. This interval makes a slightly higher high and closes near its low. And while the volume is less than the previous two bars, it satisfies the PRES78 two bar reversal pattern requirements (the second bar should have less volume than the first)

And 2 & 3 are happening at HB (the hinge).
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #34,063
  • Sep 18, 2021 2:19pm Sep 18, 2021 2:19pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} {image} 1. Highest Volume bar for Wed. (using 1700 Tues. to 1700 Wed). 2. UP bar on volume less than the previous two bars: Lack of volume/Lack of willingness to buy (no buyers) 3. Down bar confirming the No Demand. This interval makes a slightly higher high and closes near its low. And while the volume is less than the previous two bars, it satisfies the PRES78 two bar reversal pattern requirements (the second bar should have less volume than the first) And 2 & 3 are happening at HB (the hinge).
Also, bar 3 is the first close below the green/red MA, not sure when it would have turned red during the live market. That lovely little bit of PA which all of which occurred on/after the break of the zone low was beautiful. Pinged the low on that narrow range increasing volume up bar which was chock full of hidden sellers. Beauty.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #34,064
  • Sep 18, 2021 10:07pm Sep 18, 2021 10:07pm
This goes to Anotans image the other day of the EURUSD H1 ... I attach an original image from Toms work which he shared with me about SOS 6 which in his and my opinion is the safest and most reliable VSA pattern and principle available bar none

My own considerable research has shown this to be the one principle that well just works

Anotans image is text book SOS 6

Enjoy
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  • #34,065
  • Edited 3:18am Sep 19, 2021 2:25am | Edited 3:18am
Im wondering if anyone could add some feedback to this question I posted a few days ago, in relation to one of HiddenGaps charts.

I see the term "spring" used as a bar label on some charts over a few different posts.

I know what it means from a "wyckoff" structure perspective (Phase C of a type 1 Accumulation), but not sure of the VSA Bar meaning.

Tom Williams mentions a "spring-board" in MTM which he describes as a low volume test which also grabs stops, is that what you mean by "spring"?

Edit: Just read a quote in Undeclared Secrets where he says a shakeout can be sometimes known as a "spring", which correlates with the wyckoff label, so ive answered my own question
  • #34,066
  • Sep 19, 2021 2:33am Sep 19, 2021 2:33am
Quoting SyntaxError
This goes to Anotans image the other day of the EURUSD H1 ... I attach an original image from Toms work which he shared with me about SOS 6 which in his and my opinion is the safest and most reliable VSA pattern and principle available bar none My own considerable research has shown this to be the one principle that well just works Anotans image is text book SOS 6 Enjoy {image}
Hi,
What is the book name?
  • #34,067
  • Sep 19, 2021 8:30am Sep 19, 2021 8:30am
Quoting Winston Reed
This EURUSD 480min chart
Nice explanation, it seems like you're a seasoned trader with some solid experience under your belt.

Looking forward to more of your posts.
  • #34,068
  • Edited 9:23am Sep 19, 2021 8:44am | Edited 9:23am
Quoting trezo
{quote} I have a question to you, do you look at Risk:Reward Ratio? I think sometimes is hard to get a good RR. But maybe you have a high effiency.
I don't specifically look at RR these days, I just go where the market takes me. The trade on Friday, I think the initial risk was right around 8 pips and banked 13.8 pips. I was hoping for more, but price was struggling with the HVC from Thursday's London session so I had to exit the trade.

Big RRs are great for making the most money out of your trades, but you have to have a lot of resolve. You will get stopped out often especially during ranging times (almost the whole month of July was ranging on EURUSD). When you do get a trade that sticks, then you keep adding to it as price moves in your favor but you have to keep your risk under control. I.E. have a set amount that you will not risk more than and each time you add to your position you trail your stop.

If you find that you're getting frustrated easily from being repeatedly stopped out then, you end up taking quick profits in hopes trading basically just becomes paycheck and you have an idea of what you expect to maker per week/month.
  • #34,069
  • Sep 19, 2021 11:57am Sep 19, 2021 11:57am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} I don't specifically look at RR these days, I just go where the market takes me.emphasis added
“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. I’ve known many [traders] who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level that should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine; that is, they made no real money out of it. [Traders] who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make the big money. It is literally true that thousands come easier to a [trader] after he learns to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance" - Jesse Livermore

I like the idea of surrendering to the market, letting it take me where it wants to go. So here's the rub: You can never know your Reward ahead of time, only your Risk.

From a practical point of view, Reward is equivalent to Profit target. Accordingly, when a trader says, "I use a 1:5 Risk: Reward ration", he means, for example, he is willing to risks 10 pips and has a profit target of 50 pips. The question becomes, why 50 pips? Why not 25, or 100? Or 500? In other words, 50 is arbitrary and not based on the reality of the Market.

If you are in tune with the Market and it wants to give you 63 pips instead of the 50 you want, you should take the 63.

In this hypothetical (i.e. no trade taken) example, no target would have been set. The stop is trailed. But once the Ultra High Volume bar appears, you know it is time to move the stop even closer.

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If you're using the Market to tell you when to get in, why wouldn't you use the Market to tell you when to get out?
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #34,070
  • Sep 19, 2021 1:00pm Sep 19, 2021 1:00pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} If you're using the Market to tell you when to get in, why wouldn't you use the Market to tell you when to get out?
Mic drop... the best advice I've seen on here in a long time.

When I can watch the charts, I manage my trades manually by the market using zones as I would for entries.

When I am away, I use an EA that trails for me, so I never get caught with an unmanaged trade when I cannot do so manually.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #34,071
  • Sep 19, 2021 5:16pm Sep 19, 2021 5:16pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Mic drop... the best advice I've seen on here in a long time. When I can watch the charts, I manage my trades manually by the market using zones as I would for entries. When I am away, I use an EA that trails for me, so I never get caught with an unmanaged trade when I cannot do so manually.
Hi Pres, im nearly at the end of the thread and have been following along your journey throughout.

I think you said a few years ago one time along the lines that ideally you would be able to trade full time, but due to having a small account and a young family etc it wasnt possible at the time.

Im wondering with all the new opportunities with prop firms and capital funding offered, if you have been able to quit your job and trade full time?

Or do you still trade part time as more of a hobby/side income.
  • #34,072
  • Sep 19, 2021 5:27pm Sep 19, 2021 5:27pm
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} Hi Pres, im nearly at the end of the thread and have been following along your journey throughout. I think you said a few years ago one time along the lines that ideally you would be able to trade full time, but due to having a small account and a young family etc it wasnt possible at the time. Im wondering with all the new opportunities with prop firms and capital funding offered, if you have been able to quit your job and trade full time? Or do you still trade part time as more of a hobby/side income.
I remain a part-time trader whose sole purpose is to retire as young as possible. My trading is part of that plan as it allows me to invest and grow funds outside of my retirement plans through my work and bank. When I retire, I plan to maintain a trading account for added growth and spending money.

I will still not trade full-time, just a few hours each week.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #34,073
  • Sep 19, 2021 6:20pm Sep 19, 2021 6:20pm
I cant see gaps in this morning, now price at 1.17265, based on Bollinger band now price in the lower band, the price drops on last week, seems because the Fed meeting giving hawkish impact, it's possible the lower band act as support zone, but let see if price continue to decline the next support target 1.1667.

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  • #34,074
  • Sep 19, 2021 8:39pm Sep 19, 2021 8:39pm
Quoting KevinZeng
{quote} Hi, What is the book name?
Master the Markets is really the only book you need, read it a few times as there is a lot of information hidden in analogies.

After that this thread contains a wealth of information, especially from posters like Malcolm, HiddenGap, Intel, Pres78 plus a lot more. 1700 pages seems daunting at first, but it goes by quicker than you think.

If you have questions about concepts or you don't understand a chart then ask away, this thread is becoming active again so its a perfect time to take advantage of it.
  • #34,075
  • Sep 20, 2021 12:38am Sep 20, 2021 12:38am
Quoting pres78
{quote} I remain a part-time trader whose sole purpose is to retire as young as possible. My trading is part of that plan as it allows me to invest and grow funds outside of my retirement plans through my work and bank. When I retire, I plan to maintain a trading account for added growth and spending money. I will still not trade full-time, just a few hours each week.
Nice one mate, thats good that you have built your own capital without having to use outside sources.

And sounds like youve got a good solid plan, and your on your way to acheiving your goals. Good job
  • #34,076
  • Sep 20, 2021 5:50am Sep 20, 2021 5:50am
US/CH peaked out on Friday, this is going to fall nicely from today's top IMHO.
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Meditate -> Workout -> Good Food = Good Life!
  • #34,077
  • Sep 20, 2021 6:28am Sep 20, 2021 6:28am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} “After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. I’ve known many [traders] who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level that should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine; that is, they made no real money out of it. [Traders]...
damn. always learning from your posts.

Chart: XAUUSD
I try not to trade before london open but couldn't resist this setup.

EDIT:
bar marked 6 is actually 7.
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  • #34,078
  • Sep 20, 2021 7:51am Sep 20, 2021 7:51am
Don't have time to comment and mark up this chart but it's a beauty. If anyone wants to go at this one please do. Otherwise I'll get to it later.
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  • #34,079
  • Sep 20, 2021 8:07am Sep 20, 2021 8:07am
Quoting attique08
{quote} damn. always learning from your posts. Chart: XAUUSD I try not to trade before london open but couldn't resist this setup. EDIT: bar marked 6 is actually 7. {image}
Nice trade mate
  • #34,080
  • Sep 20, 2021 10:05am Sep 20, 2021 10:05am
Quoting Winston Reed
Don't have time to comment and mark up this chart but it's a beauty. If anyone wants to go at this one please do. Otherwise I'll get to it later.
I took this one, but on the 30 minute chart:

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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
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