Alohomorus Grennenguard Macro Trading

Results so far:
Profit Factor: 1.44
Total Trades: 192

Goal
Trade #s -> to total -> 1442

LTCUSD Crypto Support Level: 174
Market seems to be accumulating at this level

LTCUSD Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Observation

interesting to see that in previous iteration of large rally, ie from 2017-2018, then 2019, the ichimoku 'wall' so to speak was wider than what it is now, suggesting much less path of resistance fwd...

Macro Trade Idea: RUB/KZT
Longs are a short-vol biased position, whereas shorts outperform during market risk-off.... with my broadly short vol view (short gamma, short vega), I like being long RUB/KZT on pullbacks.

source: yahoo-finance

cybersecurity relative-value idea: HACK vs CIBR
downtrending for a while now...
sell on pullbacks and tactical buy dips for reversals in favor of HACK?

very interesting to see 1y CIBR put-call skew quite bearish (more puts purchased relative to calls)? hahaha

more on CIBR ETF...
ratio call spreads look interesting here...

interesting relative value opportunity between CAD listing of CIBR vs UK listing of CIBR...

interesting way to sell one-touches in Eurocash SA (Warsaw Stock Exchange) when beta turns negative (counter-indicator).. at previous swing lows..
seems we got another opportunity here for such an idea...

trade idea: 'olive tree' greening of the euphrates -> idea: how to gain exposure to Euphrates linked water-preservation ESG themes?
red line is 2021 of Syrian Euphrates... how do we get exposure to this? we need to examine Syria's consumption patterns for water.

source for Syria's water resources: Water Resources in Syria - Fanack Water

"Rain is the main water resource in Syria, affecting the availability of all other water resources. The average annual rainwater resource is estimated at 46 billion cubic metres (BCM). In drought years, this figure is much lower. Furthermore, the rainfall is unevenly distributed in both space and time. Rain and sometimes snow fall between October and May, mainly in the mountains. The country is divided into five zones based on the average annual precipitation."

so we need to look UP at the mountains.... Bloudan perhaps? (been there before, very beautiful place in winter...)
bordering Iraq is where the Euphrates basin is most prevalent, if that's the right way to describe it...

so what's the trade? short USD/SYP? no, i think the trade is SYP/IQD... to be long. look how downtrending it was in the past, and now flatlining..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

at the consumer level? figure it out... we shall.

Inshallah, God Bless, We Can See A Prosperous Syrian Arab Republic,


Buena Patria

RV Value Arb Trade Idea:
$PSP ETF vs $BX (Blackstone)

for one last surge of leverage, seems $BX has upper hand vs rest of PE complex, in the short-term till year-end?

Renewable energy resources in Syria - ScienceDirect
ESG ideas for Syria - 2001 paper source

Syria's renewable energy potential - Power Engineering International
more recent example - 2010
#ESG

low vol, low beta, low gamma , low vega for the MMM (US)/MMM(Mexico) relative spread?

an idea for COPULA
LIBOR receivers / 3m3m basis receivers?

Iceland
144 key resistance in USD/ISK
Sourceref: 2008
Fwd to FINISH

#$fb stophunt opportunity

SMA 50 defence?

Bumpa! Nice to see you posting. All biz school graduated and all. Still riding bikes and jamming riffs?