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DAX Futures December 2021

  • #141
  • Sep 16, 2021 2:51am Sep 16, 2021 2:51am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} 705 closed now, but I hold shorts orders as previously indicated
+14 p DAX CFD=+3 pips FDXM
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #142
  • Sep 16, 2021 3:38am Sep 16, 2021 3:38am
Quoting Brixen
Today and tomorrow all eyes on Qadruple witching. This is not a game for we humans, so let them play their games...... Anyway for today KEY LEVEL imho should be around 15685 for DAX CASH INDEX = 660/665 for DECEMBER futures. {image}
Mid morning update: slight adjustment vs early morning chart, 693 KEY LEVEL until US session for DAX CASH INDEX.
I remain flat while BigBoys are working on their rollover.......
+39 pips FDXM gained so far today and no will to engage on new trades in this typical lethargic pre-expiration market phase.
See you later.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #143
  • Sep 16, 2021 3:43am Sep 16, 2021 3:43am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Mid morning update: slight adjustment vs early morning chart, 693 KEY LEVEL until US session for DAX CASH INDEX. I remain flat while BigBoys are working on their rollover....... +39 pips FDXM gained so far today and no will to engage on new trades in this typical lethargic pre-expiration market phase. See you later. {image}
thanks for your take. Yes, Im also 690 in this one. Been doing some sells on 72x, but limited activity.
enjoy time off
  • #144
  • Edited 4:16am Sep 16, 2021 3:51am | Edited 4:16am
Market already showed us a false breakout in this current session (image attached). Key level is prety close, so that was the first warning. What you guys need to see in order to consider a breakout confirmation? I feel like this DAX does not give confirmations.. when it runs, it just runs.. no look back.. so the classical break and retest might not do the job here..


I'm also thinking about hedging strategies. In stead of stops, you could hedge your position... for example if you are short.. you hedge your position in your mental "stop loss". If the market keeps going up, your loss doesn't get bigger.. Then you wait for another bearish signal, and take profit on the long position you used to hedge.
Now depending on the market.. you close at BE, or let both shorts run.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #145
  • Sep 16, 2021 4:18am Sep 16, 2021 4:18am
Quoting averied
Market already showed us a false breakout in this current session (image attached). Key level is prety close, so that was the first warning. What you guys need to see in order to consider a breakout confirmation? I feel like this DAX does not give confirmations.. when it runs, it just runs.. no look back.. so the classical break and retest might not do the job here.. {image}
i myself have not found this breakout-confirmation-fakeout-etc. approaches very useful, i. e. not in the sense that you just look at the shape of candles (but i have not a lot of experience in forex, don't know if it works there). also, my understanding of the market is that it does not give us "signals" or "information" in the strict sense. i see it only as a structure developing in real time and trader's task would be to interpret what's happening (so in a certain sense it's actually the trader himself who generates the signals and information here. but that's not so important.)
these breakout things work better if you try to see why it's breaking out, try to see why it's pulling back and then if/why it's maybe bouncing back up (in case of a upwards breakout i mean). so trying to find out who's actually driving the breakout-(and confirmation)-move. for this i find real time futures data very helpful. but that's all only my ideas on this..

here's some more on this topic
https://atas.net/volume-analysis/str...xample-of-dax/
"Breakouts should only be considered in case of appearance of a high volume. A comparatively low volume may testify to a false signal with high probability."


https://atas.net/volume-analysis/str...alse-breakout/
https://atas.net/volume-analysis/str...ade-breakouts/
  • #146
  • Sep 16, 2021 4:32am Sep 16, 2021 4:32am
Quoting karuner
trying to find out who's actually driving the breakout

I find real time futures data very helpful.

Breakouts should only be considered in case of appearance of a high volume
Makes a lot of sense. A big difference between DAX and Forex are the market drivers. In my experience, the fundamentals in forex ar so many, that it's better not to have a fundamental bias, unless it's a very big one. Trading the news is just crazy in FX, so I just trade based on tech. analysis, and do not trade news.

However DAX is a sentiment indicator for a very clear market that is German equity and European financial sentiment as well. So market catalyst are a lot less than in forex. (Just my opinion). There is no collition in DAX, business is good or bad. In FX, we have 2 regions, once against another.

For sure will look for fundamental bias when trading DAX. Very good point.

Is there any source of real time volume data you can recommend? As I trade with a FX broker, we only have tick data, so it's not the actual future's volume.
  • #147
  • Sep 16, 2021 4:57am Sep 16, 2021 4:57am
Quoting averied
I'm also thinking about hedging strategies. In stead of stops, you could hedge your position... for example if you are short.. you hedge your position in your mental "stop loss". If the market keeps going up, your loss doesn't get bigger.. Then you wait for another bearish signal, and take profit on the long position you used to hedge. Now depending on the market.. you close at BE, or let both shorts run. {image}
Newbie here, you mean when you short, instead of SL above you have a buy order?
  • #148
  • Sep 16, 2021 5:11am Sep 16, 2021 5:11am
Quoting averied
{quote} Is there any source of real time volume data you can recommend? As I trade with a FX broker, we only have tick data, so it's not the actual future's volume.
the real futures data (times&sales, orderbook) is only sold by EUREX itself. you can buy the data feed via some brokers (any futures broker), costs about 20 eur/month. you need this to use a platform like the above linked ATAS
  • #149
  • Sep 16, 2021 5:13am Sep 16, 2021 5:13am
Quoting Strykes
{quote} Newbie here, you mean when you short, instead of SL above you have a buy order?
Correct, but it's just an idea, not advice. I'm also a newbie myself.

If you are for example short (sell), and without closing the trade you go long (buy), it's called "hedging" a position. So basically, no matter if the market goes up or down, you profit/loss doesn't change until you close a position.
  • #150
  • Sep 16, 2021 5:41am Sep 16, 2021 5:41am
Institutionals, BigFunds and so on very active this morning ahead of tomorrow expiration, look at FDAX volumes so far today........

Today VOLUMES AT 12:35CET, source EUREX official:

DAX FUTURE DECEMBER (FDAX1221): 15348
DAX FUTURE SEPTEMBER (FDAX0921): 23397

MINI DAX FUTURE DECEMBER (FDXM1221): 4427
MINI DAX FUTURE SEPTEMBER (FDXM0921): 20489

MICRO DAX FUTURE DECEMBER (FDXS1221): 219
MICRO DAX FUTURE SEPTEMBER (FDXS0921): 3787
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #151
  • Sep 16, 2021 5:50am Sep 16, 2021 5:50am
Some German language friend here may find something about sharp free fall of CONTINENTAL today on XETRA DAX?
-14,5% right now, and DAIMLER MERCEDES, VOLKSWAGEN, PORSCHE and BMW all roughly -1%, probably for chip and cars shortages.......

Thanks
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #152
  • Sep 16, 2021 6:12am Sep 16, 2021 6:12am
Quoting Brixen
Some German language friend here may find something about sharp free fall of CONTINENTAL today on XETRA DAX? -14,5% right now, and DAIMLER MERCEDES, VOLKSWAGEN, PORSCHE and BMW all roughly -1%, probably for chip and cars shortages....... Thanks
i found this on continental - https://translate.google.com/transla...co-ab-10537788

https://translate.google.com/transla.../27610906.html

daimler, i talked with someone who works there yesterday. he said they massive problems with chip shortage and expect this to go until january.
  • #153
  • Sep 16, 2021 6:14am Sep 16, 2021 6:14am
Quoting Brixen
Some German language friend here may find something about sharp free fall of CONTINENTAL today on XETRA DAX? -14,5% right now, and DAIMLER MERCEDES, VOLKSWAGEN, PORSCHE and BMW all roughly -1%, probably for chip and cars shortages....... Thanks
vitesco tech - powertrain unit started to trade td. spinoff from continental...also included in dax

shareholders got equity in that...thats why adjustment in pricing
  • #154
  • Edited 6:53am Sep 16, 2021 6:22am | Edited 6:53am
Quoting averied
...What you guys need to see in order to consider a breakout confirmation? I feel like this DAX does not give confirmations.. when it runs, it just runs.. no look back.. so the classical break and retest might not do the job here...
I would recommend reading through at least a few weeks of Brixen's journals. Despite him using a different trading style his experiences and market assessments while riding the horse are of utmost value for everyone here. You should watch behavior and price action for some time first. Only with time you will recognize the hours to trade and the ones to avoid. Using his analogy the horse has a run and afterwards it needs a rest. This repeats over and over again.

Then we have a very special situation this week. It's expiration time and enough has been said by Brixen.

Said that, let me show you a setup for trading intraday breakouts. That's non-repainting ZigZag + Donchian, essentially classic Turtle style trading and almost 40 years old. The chart shows you what an intraday market is willing to offer. If you can't get it to work your execution needs to be worked on. I will not explain a lot as this is not my thread, just so much: Don't try to predict, that's not possible. Just follow. There are no confirmations (= safe guards, if it was that easy). Confirmation is when your position goes into profit, and does not hit your SL.

A breakout is not when the last ZigZag level is exceeded. Breakout signal is the first touch of the channel (the first little dot). In ZigZag terms that's the moment when a new leg appears which essentially creates the former ZigZag reversal point.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DE30,M1-breakouts.png Size: 74 KB


Otherwise I would go with Morpheus: "You think that's air you are breathing? AGAIN!"

Inserted Video
It takes blood, sweat and enough tears to wash away the blood.
  • #155
  • Sep 16, 2021 7:01am Sep 16, 2021 7:01am
Quoting karuner
{quote} i found this on continental - https://translate.google.com/transla...co-ab-10537788 https://translate.google.com/transla.../27610906.html daimler, i talked with someone who works there yesterday. he said they massive problems...
OK, thank you very much, so nothing to worry about it, only a special Company operation.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #156
  • Sep 16, 2021 7:04am Sep 16, 2021 7:04am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} vitesco tech - powertrain unit started to trade td. spinoff from continental...also included in dax shareholders got equity in that...thats why adjustment in pricing
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #157
  • Sep 16, 2021 7:09am Sep 16, 2021 7:09am
Here we go, US retail sales in sight.....and they are pushing down after they consolidate and probably reload some shorts.....we'll see.

I'm out for now, waiting for some sharp moves later otherwise
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #158
  • Sep 16, 2021 7:41am Sep 16, 2021 7:41am
Quoting averied
{quote} Dips and only longs.
look how nice the opportunities for some long trades, in the last hour alone
  • #159
  • Sep 16, 2021 7:50am Sep 16, 2021 7:50am
Quoting karuner
{quote} look how nice the opportunities for some long trades, in the last hour alone
eehh! old usual tricks, catch some stops, scare weak hands, expecting the worst...and then they shoot up

anyway these days are not for us, they are doing their job, they dont care of anything for now, every data is an excuse is good to move prices wherever they want.

after rollover is closed, REAL GAMES will start, so save your bullets cause new fireworks will start nexr week, for sure, with DAX40, US FED and German elections.

anyway I suspect they want see at least 15800 tomorrow at 13CET......but it's only an idea and market dont care of any idea, of anyone.
and better dont think too much here, better move as a sheep follwing the sheperd
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #160
  • Edited 8:22am Sep 16, 2021 8:10am | Edited 8:22am
In the SPOOs an explosive situation is slowly building up. Some serious move is going to happen soon there...

"10 Points On Why Investors Are Bearish For The Last Two Weeks Of September"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/go...eeks-september

September 16th - This is the highest point of the day-by-day peak for September, before closing lower on the month.
Attached Image
It takes blood, sweat and enough tears to wash away the blood.
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