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  • #3,161
  • Sep 9, 2021 2:28am Sep 9, 2021 2:28am
Quoting Hutch
{quote} The analysist Stating that "Natural Gas points to further losses" looked at the wrong crystal ball. Yesterday Natural Gas ended up the day at $4.60 and is now at $4.95 while today's high was at $5.03. Here is the last part of today's chart. {image}
Yes, as other indicators, it's also far from perfect. However, it helps time to time. Traders with deep pocket can do whatever they want anyway....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,162
  • Sep 9, 2021 2:33am Sep 9, 2021 2:33am
Quoting heispark
{quote} This limit order has been triggered.
I am in some DD now. I closed Oct-Nov spread trading with BE to release margin. Because of high volatility, margins are increased. I will focus on this Mar-Apr-May butterfly spread. Still, it's high provability trading.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,163
  • Sep 10, 2021 6:11am Sep 10, 2021 6:11am
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,164
  • Sep 11, 2021 5:06am Sep 11, 2021 5:06am
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https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...omentum-775118

Although I am a bit skeptical, if it really happens, it will be devastating.......
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,165
  • Sep 11, 2021 5:12am Sep 11, 2021 5:12am
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https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natura...e-202109101048

As mentioned earlier, this is not a crystal ball. Instead, it should be viewed as a reference.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,166
  • Sep 12, 2021 7:21pm Sep 12, 2021 7:21pm
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,167
  • Sep 13, 2021 6:56pm Sep 13, 2021 6:56pm
Nat Gas price is crazy now......
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,168
  • Sep 14, 2021 12:09pm Sep 14, 2021 12:09pm
Quoting heispark
Nat Gas price is crazy now...... https://youtu.be/axugJFvWRcM
At $5.38 today it's crazy for sure

Gazprom announces that its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany is finished (msn.com)

With the completion of this pipeline more cheaper Russian natural gas will be available to Europe so that should take the the price lower.
  • #3,169
  • Sep 15, 2021 4:35am Sep 15, 2021 4:35am
Quoting Hutch
{quote} At $5.38 today it's crazy for sure Gazprom announces that its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany is finished (msn.com) With the completion of this pipeline more cheaper Russian natural gas will be available to Europe so that should take the the price lower.
But it will take at least 8 months before the gas starts flowing.......
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,170
  • Sep 15, 2021 4:38am Sep 15, 2021 4:38am
Quoting heispark
I will wait until 100% extension reached and then sell Sep-Dec spread. It's relatively safe and easy trade. Currently, the margin of Sep-Dec is only $450. {image}{image}
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Technically, it has already reached XOP but greedy speculators still look hungry..... Do we really see $10 gas this winter?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,171
  • Sep 15, 2021 5:05am Sep 15, 2021 5:05am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Ok, it came back to ending diagonal pattern.... Personally I don't trust any pattern but ending diagonal pattern is the most reliable one IMHO. Looks interesting anyway...... {image}
Nat Gas 4H chart has an ending diagonal pattern........
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,172
  • Sep 16, 2021 2:01am Sep 16, 2021 2:01am
Quoting heispark
I am interested in this butterfly spread (Mar-Apr-May 22). Limit sell @ 0.560. Margin is a bit expensive. It's $1325 at this time of writing. It's very illiquid so far..... My strategy is simple: Betting to high probability with low leverage. {image}{image}
Actually, it didn't work out as expected. I thought it had a high provability based on former historic data but it broke the record in 10 years! It was my mistake that I wanted to be involved with such an illiquid spread product. As a result, I had a significant dent on my account. That's ok, it happens time to time. Move on.
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Worth reminding of the risk of spread trading:

Quoting heispark
The Risk of Spread Trading: Overconfidence {image} https://www.seasonalgo.com/futures-spread-trading
You MUST have a stop loss!!
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,173
  • Sep 16, 2021 2:23pm Sep 16, 2021 2:23pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Actually, it didn't work out as expected. I thought it had a high provability based on former historic data but it broke the record in 10 years! It was my mistake that I wanted to be involved with such an illiquid spread product. As a result, I had a significant dent on my account. That's ok, it happens time to time. Move on. {image} Worth reminding of the risk of spread trading: {quote} You MUST have a stop loss!!
Hang in there Justin all traders suffer a loss from time to time and some quit trading as a result. Quitting is a weak solution but you are a strong person so you will recover the loss.
  • #3,174
  • Edited 7:07am Sep 17, 2021 6:34am | Edited 7:07am
In my opinion, there are two types of losers among traders. In the following picture, style A is killing your account slowly and style B is growing your account gradually and then killing it in split second. Many people adopt B because they are sick and tired of killing their account slowly and style B can give them some comfort. Breakout traders with SL at previous swing low mostly fall in this category. TMS people such as Tekkies, Lisat, ... are them. I also used to fall in this category.
Style B is obviously Martingale or Martingale variants adding to losing positions. Pivot factory, WCU, spread trading all fall in this category. Davit, Hilmy83 and me Justin are them. People adopted this style get an illusion that they are making money and believe they finally have cracked the market. Alas, in reality they are still dunning-krugering. They only buy time and sooner or later time will come in which they have to decide whether to cut loss at 50% DD or wait until they blow their account. This is not sustainable approach in the long run. My next endeavor is to remove any such ruining risk factor from my trading and find sustainability. I've got an idea.......
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,175
  • Sep 17, 2021 7:44am Sep 17, 2021 7:44am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Nat Gas 4H chart has an ending diagonal pattern........ {image}
It looks like Nat Gas finally found gravity. It's falling fast now.... IMHO, market in general is far from logical. The market is highly manipulated by greedy speculators who can drive the price extreme. Market is very dangerous place and market exposure is shorter the better.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,176
  • Sep 17, 2021 9:11am Sep 17, 2021 9:11am
Quoting heispark
{quote} https://youtu.be/YecxmHtPQh0 He doesn't need to be a successful trader. He can sell his tools & EAs, training courses or Youtube videos just like others. Single one million viewed Youtube video can generate about $40K of income. He's talented and has a better odd to succeed than trading. I know Jason Stapleton was a consistent loser before he quit trading. Ryan is no worse than Jason at least.
Just curious how Ryan's doing these days.... It looks still not very good unfortunately.....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,177
  • Sep 18, 2021 10:57am Sep 18, 2021 10:57am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Nat Gas market in the U.S. is quite isolated market even though LNG and pipeline export is getting expanding. That being said, CME /NG futures is hardly be affected by foreign nat gas markets. This is different from crude oil.
Perhaps, the trend would be changing..... However, if energy price is soaring too much, I think U.S. gov would ban energy export again.....
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Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Driving Up Natural Gas Prices Worldwide

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...Worldwide.html
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,178
  • Sep 18, 2021 3:33pm Sep 18, 2021 3:33pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Perhaps, the trend would be changing..... However, if energy price is soaring too much, I think U.S. gov would ban energy export again..... {image} Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Driving Up Natural Gas Prices Worldwide https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...Worldwide.html
This is why Europe needs more Russian natural gas the only country that did not want it and even tried to sabotage the pipeline at sea is Poland. By the way the US did not want Europe to have a new pipeline from Russia but I saw an article stating that the US is buying Russian oil when there is a shortage in Alaska. This shows the hypocrisy of US politicians.
  • #3,179
  • Edited Sep 19, 2021 5:28am Sep 18, 2021 4:06pm | Edited Sep 19, 2021 5:28am
I am considering buying Stream Deck Mini for my day trading.......
It also supports Mac OS.
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https://www.amazon.com/Elgato-Stream...s%2C337&sr=8-1

https://www.youtube.com/results?sear...ck+for+trading

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EDIT: I've just purchased it from Amazon. It will take a week before delivery. I will post a picture when it arrives.....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,180
  • Edited 11:17am Sep 22, 2021 4:51am | Edited 11:17am
Quoting heispark
The Natural Gas Rally Is Far From Over https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...To-An-End.html If this winter is cold, you are gonna have a perfect storm........
The problem of nat gas trading is it heavily relies on weather forecast which is unreliable at best and prone to quick change. Speculators drive up and down the price to the extreme level based on this unreliable news. This market can be a very dangerous place time to time. Be careful......
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https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...rm-tone-778806
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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