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my trade plan for next week

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 11, 2006 7:20am Nov 11, 2006 7:20am
trade plan for week beggining sun 12 november 2006

every week i publish a trade plan, i have decided to publish this on factory forex for critique, the general idea is recognising
times and trends and predicting them, the trades will be placed once the trend has been established and results published, and
perhaps you can all see the benefits of planning your week

Sunday 12th

Market open:

Looking for a slight weakening of the dollar upto 1.2900 based on the JPY trade balance figures 0.31t to over
1 trillion is quite some movement

First trade for Sunday

Eur/usd buy @ 1.2850 limit 1.2925 close before 5.00 am gmt

Monday 5-6 a.m. gmt

Gbp/usd buy @ 1.9075 limt 1.9125 close before 2.00

monday watch for a long run on jpy gdp @ 0.2% with the trade balance @ over 1 trillion, nah, no change expect a surprise here
and get in early, this will also have a good effect on the usd so if we have not yet reached 1.2900 expect it to to over 1.2925

Tuesday 14 november

eur/usd

If i can get in on a sell @ 1.2925 i will, however what ever the high point is i will go in on a sell at around 5.30 a.m.
and leave it run with no limit and will close the trade at 3.00 p.m. hopefully with around 120 pips profit at the low end
of 1.2800


wednesday 15th november

get up very very early 5.00 am hopefully the gbp/usd will be around 1.8750 and about to reverse trend so i am looking
to get in on a buy for another 100 pip movement - get out at 3.00p.m. gmt

eur/usd buy at 1.2800 also very early for a 140 pip upward movement to 1.2950 get out before 1.00 regardless

thursday 16th november

again i am looking for a reversal and would like again to enter the market early in the morning again about 5 a.m. on a sell
for both the eur/usd and the gbp/usd again 140 pips on both exit at 5.45p.m. gmt

friday buy eur/usd & gbp for 60 pips

Sunday/monday tuesday wednesday thursday friday

eur/usd 1.2845/1.2925 1.2925/1.2800 1.2825/1.2910 1.2900/1.2800 1.2800/1.2880
gbp/usd 1.9075/1.9125 1.9125/1.8800 1.8800/1.8905 1.8900/1.8800 1.8800/1.2850
buy sell buy sell buy


these are rough targets, the general idea is to get the trend right and rough entry points
  • #2
  • Nov 11, 2006 8:58am Nov 11, 2006 8:58am
Why not just let the market tell you about direction beginning Sunday pm and plan your trades according to the actual price.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #3
  • Nov 11, 2006 12:13pm Nov 11, 2006 12:13pm
It kinda helps to remind me what i should be looking out for, and which fundamentals to watch, as for the actual price there are certain places at which i will not enter the market, Also with retracements, support/resistance points these are mearly targets to look out for.

Second i am a big believer in chasing stops 10, 15 20 & 25 to add momentum to a trade and the market makers flushing out loosers in the a.m.

Third, if i am right, or close to right the trade becomes less emotional, and more mechanical.

fourth , i have been using this new system for a couple of weeks and with currency combinations and multiple contracts can net 3000 pips per week, easily

fifth and final, if i am wrong i wil not trade, but will learn why i am wrong, and correct the trade next time, this has happened twice in the last 33 trades, so i hope it serves as a guide for all
  • #4
  • Nov 11, 2006 12:35pm Nov 11, 2006 12:35pm
Quoting magicfx
It kinda helps to remind me what i should be looking out for, and which fundamentals to watch, as for the actual price there are certain places at which i will not enter the market, Also with retracements, support/resistance points these are mearly targets to look out for.

Second i am a big believer in chasing stops 10, 15 20 & 25 to add momentum to a trade and the market makers flushing out loosers in the a.m.

Third, if i am right, or close to right the trade becomes less emotional, and more mechanical.

fourth , i have been using this new system for a couple of weeks and with currency combinations and multiple contracts can net 3000 pips per week, easily

fifth and final, if i am wrong i wil not trade, but will learn why i am wrong, and correct the trade next time, this has happened twice in the last 33 trades, so i hope it serves as a guide for all

I think also that price moves have mechanical principals and that a system can tell you many things, I use also a mechanical system, but what for you must predict prices for the next 2 years ?!

can't you do day by day ? I hope for you that your forecast in long term and with such precision are correct, thats great, but sounds a bit fantascentific
  • #5
  • Nov 11, 2006 12:48pm Nov 11, 2006 12:48pm
and by the way, i cant do this every week, on the week of nfp i can only usually trade one or two days, then catch the retracement about 30 pips if either the eur/usd or gbp/usd is near a strong resistance at 3p.m. gmt, the same goes for fomc meetings.


i suppose its more about knowing when to trade, and whats going to move the markets, along with knowing how the market works that will make you more money than trying to trade when there is no trade to be had

on days when the market range trades i can usuall get in on every peak and trough, chasing stops, its funny, but a little to jeuvenile to want to make a career out of it, plus any new breaking news will blow the trade
  • #6
  • Nov 11, 2006 12:53pm Nov 11, 2006 12:53pm
two years is easy, its a buy 2500 - 3000 pips

why, budget deficit, and an ageing workforce - unless the us eases imigration you guys are gonna need a lot of low paid young labour to survive
  • #7
  • Nov 11, 2006 1:21pm Nov 11, 2006 1:21pm
Quoting magicfx
two years is easy, its a buy 2500 - 3000 pips

why, budget deficit, and an ageing workforce - unless the us eases imigration you guys are gonna need a lot of low paid young labour to survive
Regarding an ageing workforce.... have you considered that more and more of those approaching what used to be retirement age are in much better physical and mental health than ever before. These workers, since they are living longer, will want/need to work longer into their sixties and beyond. Businesses will also want their expertice and work place values.

Lou
  • #8
  • Nov 11, 2006 1:27pm Nov 11, 2006 1:27pm
your right trucco, so develop a trading strategy and a trading plan, and when everything works spot on for you, and the trade is comfortable, gives a nice smiley happy feeling, then you can take 50 pips at least on every good trade, start with $300 get 50 pips per trade, 24 trades $1 million. (trade 10% cap)


when your wrong you dont loose, you dont trade, you learn

win win win win!!!
  • #9
  • Nov 11, 2006 1:43pm Nov 11, 2006 1:43pm
good point, but business being business and people being people, that wont happen, remember the first to go when companies hit trouble are those that hit close to retirement age, example: -

fords vr programme was first offered to 60's + then 55's plus, now 50's plus

now age discrimination is illegal in the u.k.

and you can bet at any age with many years service under their belts they took it and retired early, very very happy.

the fact that they are going to live longer means the young will have to pay even higher taxes for medicare, and other state benfits they are likely to claim for longer, the cost being an estimated 12% of GDP by 2020
  • #10
  • Nov 11, 2006 2:04pm Nov 11, 2006 2:04pm
another point, i am 30 years old, i have been planning for retirment at the age of 50 since i was 20, i have a good job, around $80k per annum, my wife earns the same, how much money do you think corporations are gonna have to pay us to work till we are 75....... not a cat in hells chance

how many healthy 75 year olds do you think will be flipping burgers, its a harsh reality, but a well salaried person will live longer, but retire early and enjoy life, a low salaried person has a lower life expectancy and will rarely reach retirement age, the average in the u.k. is to die 3 years after retirement at 65, the point being 5% of the people in england own 95% of the wealth, anyone earning over $50k will fall within the worlds top 5% earners.

everyone is fighting for freedom, ask yourself why are you trading, answer wealth, health, freedom

food for thought..
  • #11
  • Nov 11, 2006 5:16pm Nov 11, 2006 5:16pm
Tomorrow lets not forget the brave, god bless those who laid down thier lives so that we would not have to.

For every sole that gave everything, there is a son, wife, mom, dad, aunt, uncle that has also suffered a loss, a loved and blessed soul, it is now their battle, their struggle, their loss that lives on day by day, hour by hour, minute by minute. All they ask is a little help one poppy, one pound, one dollar, one yen, not to heal the wounds because that cant be done, but to eat.

world war II - my uncle joey died when his tank blew up

give generously
  • #12
  • Nov 13, 2006 6:45am Nov 13, 2006 6:45am
The wave was down last nite for the gbp you just came up into the a 2 wave down hope you had your stop in place for a few points! Down into the 3 wave which was a monster.
  • #13
  • Nov 13, 2006 6:49am Nov 13, 2006 6:49am
3 to 5 wave corrections! Elloitt wave!
  • #14
  • Nov 13, 2006 11:42am Nov 13, 2006 11:42am
Well another lesson learnt. sundays trade was good and netted 25 pips

i was then a little spooked by the unexpected change in trend direction, so my second trend went belly up, I am hoping that this was becuase whilst there was an increase in the eur ppi, cpi figures these were still minus so the effect was on the eur was the opposite to that expected, this being the case i am letting the trade run [email protected] with good support at 1.800 this should not be a problem, to recoup some of the losses.

the worst that can happen is that we have a small retracement, plus a bit more stop loss chasing will help me close the trade with a smaller loss, also counting on that jpy gdp figure being wildly wrong giving strength to the jpy and further weakness to the dollar, fingers crossed

will also need to double check the rest of the weeks figures and trades and hope that this time i have got it right, in the first instance i shall wait this one out untill tomorrow
  • #15
  • Nov 13, 2006 12:01pm Nov 13, 2006 12:01pm
sorry i have not studied elliot wave, are you saying this was a more technical driven movement and should go down further?
  • #16
  • Nov 13, 2006 12:21pm Nov 13, 2006 12:21pm
I have not studied elliot wave, however i believe it is as good as fibonacci, which is why normally as the trend did not confirm my trading plan i would not have traded, As always, deviate from your trading plan and you will loose.

This is my first live account, only $200 so nothing really to worry about, the small loss is a good lesson learnt fot me, it wont be the first or the last, but worth every $

Another reason for doing this on a forum, the lessons of forex trading are always learnt the hard way, and hopefully we can all learn.

One final thought, trading live is totally different from demo trading, i didnt have the guts the hedge the trade, or cross trade to minimise the loss


lesson learnt, more comments appreciated
  • #17
  • Nov 13, 2006 12:23pm Nov 13, 2006 12:23pm
Quoting magicfx
Well another lesson learnt. sundays trade was good and netted 25 pips

i was then a little spooked by the unexpected change in trend direction, so my second trend went belly up, I am hoping that this was becuase whilst there was an increase in the eur ppi, cpi figures these were still minus so the effect was on the eur was the opposite to that expected, this being the case i am letting the trade run [email protected] with good support at 1.800 this should not be a problem, to recoup some of the losses.

the worst that can happen is that we have a small retracement, plus a bit more stop loss chasing will help me close the trade with a smaller loss, also counting on that jpy gdp figure being wildly wrong giving strength to the jpy and further weakness to the dollar, fingers crossed

will also need to double check the rest of the weeks figures and trades and hope that this time i have got it right, in the first instance i shall wait this one out untill tomorrow
I dont think that UK CPI or PPI or what ever was the real reason. Not even elliot waves..

I said in other posts that they/we always will find a reason after things have happend, and then start to say' lesson learned'..we will learn a lesson for the next 10 years every day, until we dont understand that the only reason because forex market moves is to let big players make money
ofcourse big players also do a good job, they give 'the right price' to currencies, but everything in forex market is organized to make it a nice business for few.
Think about this : you have maximum 20k on you account. So you can buy maximum 2 mil (1:100)
banks play real 1000 mil no problem, so they can play 1.000 mil.(example. if they can lev 1:100, then much more..)
There are many big players.
Moltiplicate all small traders X 'what they can play' and banks. who moves the market ?

My system was telling the same as yours, buy @1.9075 and sell again 1.90 etc..
I didnt play today, (i wrote this yesterday) because I was expecting a speculation in waiting of US CPI..and after Mr Moscow from FED said that there 'MIGHT' be a new rate increase, big players are alwaye there to speculate.

I tell you something more. Last night the news was $ bearish: 'China wants to diversify his currency reserves'.. maybe to trigger short position stops ?..
This morning the news was for a bullish $, UK data and 'EU might have stagnant inflation, so probably no more hikes are needed'....
Tomorrow probably they will say the opposite..

But the point is that anyway, they need to keep some economical balances between currencies and some 'walls' levels won't be crossed, and , like in stock market, you always know after 'WHY IT MOVED'..and you see in it a reason and think that you are wrong. But you are not

Its funny to see that good US news/expectations , or bad for euro and pound , come always when some key-economical level are touched and are needed to 'justify' the change of trend.

I think that the downtrend is not finished yet, until TIC, CPI ect are realeased.

I won't trade US pairs this week
  • #18
  • Nov 13, 2006 12:40pm Nov 13, 2006 12:40pm
Just a normal corrective wave from the main trend. It came back up to nuetralize on the macd (on center line bounce and cont down) I was trading the Jpy because it had a better set up at the time. The euro cont on down today because it broke the support...nice two am trade. Study up on neutral reading on the macd. That will help out a lot.
  • #19
  • Nov 13, 2006 1:16pm Nov 13, 2006 1:16pm
Quoting tras
Just a normal corrective wave from the main trend. It came back up to nuetralize on the macd (on center line bounce and cont down) I was trading the Jpy because it had a better set up at the time. The euro cont on down today because it broke the support...nice two am trade. Study up on neutral reading on the macd. That will help out a lot.
Hi Tras,

I was more talking about the pound.
But talking about the euro, for me the corrective wave was @1.2830 if the up trend has to continue now.
I think eur-usd will keep going down.

Going back about big players, I know what im talking about becasue I know people working in this field, so what ever reason you want to know and believe this was the reason of the move , they always know before you because they decide it
  • #20
  • Nov 13, 2006 3:07pm Nov 13, 2006 3:07pm
You need a good solid program like a good dog in the field to determine where the bird location before it take flight.
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