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vsa with Malcolm

  • #33,941
  • Edited 11:36am Sep 4, 2021 10:09am | Edited 11:36am
The candle I entered on might actually look like a no supply due to it being a down candle, but I reckon that could be "a polar bear in Hawai" . I saw it more like a test of the HVC/Trigger number due to the spread/wick.

The candle also closed lower than the previous candles close, so be definition would this be a hidden upthrust? But it had volume <2 so im not so sure

Edit: Just read one of Malcolms posts from back in 2011, he points out a similair bar that closed up on <2 volume and said it was an up-thrust. So going by that I would call the bar I entered on a "hidden upthrust" due to it closing down.
  • #33,942
  • Sep 4, 2021 12:02pm Sep 4, 2021 12:02pm
Quoting trezo
Hi, can someone for me do analyze of this chart. Where you will looking for an entry, SL etc. {image}
I'll bite.

Just a few caveats before I get started:

(1) Since I had to use your screenshot, I had to guestimate the HVZ lines, so they may be off and that could change everything

(2) Since you declined to provide the market and time frame, I am doing this analysis without respect to the Global Trading Hours (GTH) Open. For me, that could affect whether either or any of the trades would be taken. I only want to trade Long above the GTH Open and Short below the GTH Open using this style of trading.

(3) While I am a huge fan of using HVZs/trigger numbers, I use Supply/Demand Zones for my trading. Most people here are using HVZ/Trigger Numbers so I have attempted to answer the question from that perspective. However, there are certainly people more adept at how to spot, and or, trade the nuances associated with this style.


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The Analysis:

(1) A wide spread UP bar on Ultra High Volume closing off its high. This is Supply. This is confirmed with the next interval DOWN.
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) tells us that Weakness, when it appears, usually appears on UP bars. Which does turn out to be the case here.

(2) A narrow range UP bar on volume less than the previous two bars. This is No Demand. Price is above HB (50% level), so I'm not yet looking to enter. The next interval is DOWN, confirming the No Demand.

(3) A narrow range UP bar on volume less than the previous two bars that closes in the middle of its range. This is No Demand. Note that the high of this interval touches (but doesn't breach) HB and that the interval closes below HB.

I want to get short.
Options:
(A) get short on the close of this interval
(B) place a limit order at the low of this interval
(C) wait for the next interval to confirm the ND by closing DOWN.

Any of those options are valid, I tend to like (C).

My stop is just above the 75% line. Many people would simply use HB in this case. This makes sense as HB is the "line in the sand".

(4) This DOWN interval confirms the ND and brings me into the market.

(5) This is a key interval and not one I like seeing. Note that this bar fails to take out the low of the Ultra High Volume interval. It makes a lower low but turns around and closes near its high on increasing volume. This is Stopping Volume. Which is a sign of strength.

(6) Price is closing above HB now, I absolutely do not like my trade.

(7) This interval is an Up Thrust which would take me out of my short. Although an Up Thrust is a sign of weakness, this interval is closing above HB, so there is no reason to get back in on the short side. Note that the next interval that confirms the Up Thrust still fails to close below HB and volume had dried up.

(8) This interval makes a lower low than the previous interval but closes UP and near its high on volume less than the previous two bars. This is a Hidden Test.

We've just had a No Supply bar at HB immediately followed by a Test (Hidden). I'm looking to get long.

My options are the same, just in reverse. My stop loss would be placed at or just below the 25% line.

(9) I don't really like the price action to this point, and the interval prior to (9) actually closed below HB. But this interval is a Spring.
If you're not already long , this is an ideal "second chance" entry.

Summary:

1 Loss 1 Win Profit +++

What? There are losses with VSA? That's right. You might be wrong more than you're right. That's why your focus needs to be on cutting losses short and letting profits run. You may call that trite; I call it wisdom.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,943
  • Sep 4, 2021 1:09pm Sep 4, 2021 1:09pm
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1 old bottom
2 down thrust
3 shakeout (news??)
4 another shakout
5 long entry
  • #33,944
  • Sep 5, 2021 8:20am Sep 5, 2021 8:20am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} I'll bite. Just a few caveats before I get started: (1) Since I had to use your screenshot, I had to guestimate the HVZ lines, so they may be off and that could change everything (2) Since you declined to provide the market and time frame, I am doing this analysis without respect to the Global Trading Hours (GTH) Open. For me, that could affect whether either or any of the trades would be taken. I only want to trade Long above the GTH Open and Short below the GTH Open using this style of trading. (3) While I am a huge fan of using HVZs/trigger...
Thanks for your analysis. Here is screenshot from my entries. The instrument was NASDAQ
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Daytrader
  • #33,945
  • Edited 8:13am Sep 7, 2021 5:15am | Edited 8:13am
HG, was wondering your opinion on this one mate.

I was watching this old trigger line (dotted), and the HVC 50% for a reaction.

Noticed a squat bar forming which was up for most of the candle duration and was waiting to place a pending order for a break below, but last few seconds it closed down so I avoided the trade which would have hit target on the 2nd candle.

Do you reckon I was being too picky here by watching the candle hover up and down its open, and only accepting an up candle.

Or was the squat bar relevant enough to place a pending, regardless of whether it closed up or down as I was happy with the location of the trade?

Cheers.
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  • #33,946
  • Sep 7, 2021 10:15am Sep 7, 2021 10:15am
Quoting Paulscaff1
I was watching this old trigger line (dotted), and the HVC 50% for a reaction. Noticed a squat bar forming which was up for most of the candle duration and was waiting to place a pending order for a break below, but last few seconds it closed down so I avoided the trade which would have hit target on the 2nd candle.
Quoting Paulscaff1
Do you reckon I was being too picky here by watching the candle hover up and down its open, and only accepting an up candle. Or was the squat bar relevant enough to place a pending, regardless of whether it closed up or down as I was happy with the location of the trade?
The basic squat can be relatively easy to spot: Narrow range bar with volume greater than the previous bar. Nevertheless, nice pick-up.

Looking for UP and DOWN closes can be important, but so can higher highs or lower lows than the previous bar. The Smart Money knows that many traders, including some professional fund traders, look for higher highs to buy and lower lows to sell. That is why the best Tests tend to make lower lows and the best No Demands tend to make higher highs.

With that said, bars that fail to make a higher high or a lower low are inside bars and the power/significance of inside bars can be found with a simple google search.

Context matters

When you noticed there was a squat forming, you should have also noticed it was forming as an inside bar. Inside bars represent "equilibrium" and usually precede a strong breakout to one side or the other. So let's think about the context.

(1) Price is below the MA (diamonds). For me, I am never going long below the MA.
(2) Price ultimately closes below HB (50%) of the recent "Zone". Note: this is not the highest volume bar, so I am assuming you "FiBBED" this bar due to its large range. I would love to hear your thoughts on this.
(3) Price is below the old HB trigger line in yellow.

So price can break either way, but we only want to get short on the break below. It would be reasonable to keep the short entry and have a pretty tight stop above. Or you could wait for confirmation that the Squat represented weakness by waiting to see if the next interval closed DOWN.

Having said all that, standing aside because you don't see what you like, or you don't like what you see, is always the best move. Being on the sidelines IS a trading decision.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,947
  • Edited 11:35am Sep 7, 2021 11:05am | Edited 11:35am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} {quote} The basic squat can be relatively easy to spot: Narrow range bar with volume greater than the previous bar. Nevertheless, nice pick-up. Looking for UP and DOWN closes can be important, but so can higher highs or lower lows than the previous bar. The Smart Money knows that many traders, including some professional fund traders, look for higher highs to buy and lower lows to sell. That is why the best Tests tend to make lower lows and the best No Demands tend to make higher highs. With that said, bars that fail to make a higher high...
Thanks HG,

Yeah I had the original HVC marked, as well as the newer WRB, I deleted the first one just for clarity. But although the one I marked had lesser volume, it stood out to me due to its wide range, and also the confluence of levels.

Yeah mate, I did notice it didnt maker a HH, that along with the closing low was what made me a bit unsure. I never even realised the significance of it being an inside bar to be honest, but like you say the breakout potential of the IB, diamonds, and levels should have given some weight to the trade. Thanks for pointing those out.

Kicking myself now though, it dropped 50 pips after the squat

Plenty more setups though, thanks for your input.
  • #33,948
  • Sep 7, 2021 11:51am Sep 7, 2021 11:51am
Legend has it if you say his name three (3) times he will appear................

Pres78
Pres78
Pres78

All this talk about HVZ has made me start to reread Pres78's thread (a.k.a the VZA Bible). I wanted to show this first chart because it's such a great example of every element coming together.

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The reason I did not take this trade is that I was not in front of my screen at this time.

I did take this one. I think I prefer to stay on the H1 chart, but I had to go down to the 5m chart because YHVZ was so narrow. The fact that the Zone was so narrow was a clue to expect large moves today. It doesn't tell us anything about the direction, only that the probability of movement is high. This is a basic volatility concept and its why we like our No Demands to be at least NR3s or NR5s (wow. it has been a while since that nugget has come to light)

So I dropped down to the 5 min. I actually entered twice. Once on the Shake Out and added on the EvR.

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I like bringing in an OrderFlow concept and entering on Delta Divergence. In these two entries, Delta Divergence is lower lows but positive delta. In the first screenshot, it's a higher high on negative delta.

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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,949
  • Sep 7, 2021 12:29pm Sep 7, 2021 12:29pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Legend has it if you say his name three (3) times he will appear................ Pres78 Pres78 Pres78 All this talk about HVZ has made me start to reread Pres78's thread (a.k.a the VZA Bible). I wanted to show this first chart because it's such a great example of every element coming together. {image} The reason I did not take this trade is that I was not in front of my screen at this time. I did take this one. I think I prefer to stay on the H1 chart, but I had to go down to the 5m chart because YHVZ was so narrow. The fact that the Zone was so...
Nice trade. I probably wouldnt have had the confidence to take your first entry, although im sure it will come with some experience.

I like when it broke out and retraced back to the hinge and reacted there, I also see a hidden test, making a LL after your EvR? I would have taken an entry there likely.

Yeah I notice reactions on these H1 zones all the time, but often cant find an entry on H1, I will need to grow a set and get down to lower timeframes and study the zone reactions there for an entry.
  • #33,950
  • Sep 7, 2021 12:39pm Sep 7, 2021 12:39pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Legend has it if you say his name three (3) times he will appear................ Pres78 Pres78 Pres78 All this talk about HVZ has made me start to reread Pres78's thread (a.k.a the VZA Bible). I wanted to show this first chart because it's such a great example of every element coming together. {image} The reason I did not take this trade is that I was not in front of my screen at this time. I did take this one. I think I prefer to stay on the H1 chart, but I had to go down to the 5m chart because YHVZ was so narrow. The fact that the Zone was so...
I don't need to appear as I have nothing to add to this great post. Yes NR3 or NR5 for ND's and NS's certainly add to their validity. I trade 1hr zones but will drop as low as the 5 minute chart to look for entries as we move back into the buy or sell area of a zone... Sometimes on the right days with the right zones a 1hr entry comes out clear as can be... most days however the entries get lost within the 1hr bars.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #33,951
  • Edited 1:16pm Sep 8, 2021 7:00am | Edited 1:16pm
EURUSD (Hit SL)

This was my trade for today, any comments would be appreciated.

I literally jumped on the charts and saw this setup.

I noticed price retracing to the London H1 HVZ so I switched to M5 to look for a possible entry.

1. Effort to rise.
2. Slightly lower spread than previous bar, but with higher volume showing potential selling.
3. Hidden Upthrust which reacted off the H1 Trigger Level (Yellow), this closed down potentially confirming selling.
4. No Demand bar confirming SOW, pending order placed on the break of this low, with stop loss directly on the HVZ 50% level.
5. Brought into the trade on this bar which did close up, but with even lower volume showing No Demand.
6. The trade moved into profit, but I noticed this squat bar showing very low spread with increased volume and making a LL, potential SOS?

The squat bar did get me thinking if i should exit the trade, but I did let it run up to the SL

Do you guys reckon the squat was my cue to exit, what would you have done in this situation?

Edit: My thinking now is that, after the squat we had an up bar which made a HH which confirmed the strength from the squat bar. This would have been a sensible exit and would have got me out at breakeven.

Edit: Something else ive noticed is that my HVZ has 4 "lines in the sand" if I include the Trigger Number, which im assuming will add too much subjectivity and I will need to think about deciding between the HVZ or Trigger Number going forward.

Cheers.
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  • #33,952
  • Sep 8, 2021 7:55am Sep 8, 2021 7:55am
Quoting Paulscaff1
EURUSD (Hit SL) This was my trade for today, any comments would be appreciated. I literally jumped on the charts and saw this setup. I noticed price retracing to the London H1 HVZ so I switched to M5 to look for a possible entry. 1. Effort to rise. 2. Slightly lower spread than previous bar, but with higher volume showing potential selling. 3. Hidden Upthrust which reacted off the H1 Trigger Level (Yellow), this closed down potentially confirming selling. 4. No Demand bar confirming SOW, pending order placed on the break of this low, with stop loss...
To my mind, the entry was too late. it had previously good entry points with several signs. see attached charts 15m and tick chart with weis wave (it clearly shows the exhaustion of supply).
also, look at your chart, we have high vol down bar on 1h but the next bar is the same range but with 50% volume of the previous bar and it produced only minor down move so potential of shortening of the thrust. Also it has moved a lot today already, so the trade is riskier. worth putting ADR on your charts.
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The more you learn the more you earn
  • #33,953
  • Sep 8, 2021 8:47am Sep 8, 2021 8:47am
Quoting freemind
{quote} To my mind, the entry was too late. it had previously good entry points with several signs. see attached charts 15m and tick chart with weis wave (it clearly shows the exhaustion of supply). also, look at your chart, we have high vol down bar on 1h but the next bar is the same range but with 50% volume of the previous bar and it produced only minor down move so potential of shortening of the thrust. Also it has moved a lot today already, so the trade is riskier. worth putting ADR on your charts. {image}
Thanks Freemind, some good points there which I'll take on board.
  • #33,954
  • Sep 8, 2021 9:50am Sep 8, 2021 9:50am
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} Thanks Freemind, some good points there which I'll take on board.
I use ATR of 1 below the vol, so i can easier spot WRB. the 15m bar that i marked as "COB" thats the biggest in the down move. always important to see market reaction to such bars.
continue of the price chart- we see classic pattern previous support becomes the resistance. i marked that zone before the price bounced as the area of interest. What we see- SOT on 5m price bars and then the biggest down bar in that small up move. one could argue that we have UT on tick charts as well. having sow in the background we can sell right away with a stop above that wrb and first target as previous lows and then trail the stop.
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The more you learn the more you earn
  • #33,955
  • Sep 8, 2021 10:27am Sep 8, 2021 10:27am
Quoting freemind
{quote} I use ATR of 1 below the vol, so i can easier spot WRB. the 15m bar that i marked as "COB" thats the biggest in the down move. always important to see market reaction to such bars. continue of the price chart- we see classic pattern previous support becomes the resistance. i marked that zone before the price bounced as the area of interest. What we see- SOT on 5m price bars and then the biggest down bar in that small up move. one could argue that we have UT on tick charts as well. having sow in the background we can sell right away with...
Nice one mate, yeah I got to the charts a bit late and missed some good setups, I literally turned on my laptop, marked off the newest H1 HVC/trigger from london, down to M5 and saw the entry.

I maybe rushed into it a bit, im still working out the balance of trying to keep it simple. But your right about the ADR, I noticed Pres keeps an eye on it aswell from reading the VZA thread, I totally overlooked that, its something I will need to start using.
  • #33,956
  • Sep 8, 2021 1:27pm Sep 8, 2021 1:27pm
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} Nice one mate, yeah I got to the charts a bit late and missed some good setups, I literally turned on my laptop, marked off the newest H1 HVC/trigger from london, down to M5 and saw the entry. I maybe rushed into it a bit, im still working out the balance of trying to keep it simple. But your right about the ADR, I noticed Pres keeps an eye on it aswell from reading the VZA thread, I totally overlooked that, its something I will need to start using.
dont rush into trades. i have lost a ton of money because of that. FOMO is a bad thing. i have criteria that if i open charts i dont open a trade faster than 10min. because you think you see a great setup and want to enter a trade right away especially if UK or NY session is about to open as volatility picks up then, BUT you need to zoom out to see the bigger picture, to check different TF, draw S/R, check tick charts, etc (depending on what you use in your trading).
I suggest you to do journaling. i did not want to do that for several years, but once started it helped me a lot to improve the game. this is worth the money: https://www.tradersmindjournal.com/
The more you learn the more you earn
  • #33,957
  • Sep 8, 2021 2:15pm Sep 8, 2021 2:15pm
Quoting freemind
{quote} dont rush into trades. i have lost a ton of money because of that. FOMO is a bad thing. i have criteria that if i open charts i dont open a trade faster than 10min. because you think you see a great setup and want to enter a trade right away especially if UK or NY session is about to open as volatility picks up then, BUT you need to zoom out to see the bigger picture, to check different TF, draw S/R, check tick charts, etc (depending on what you use in your trading). I suggest you to do journaling. i did not want to do that for several years,...
Cheers mate, yeah maybe "rushed" was the wrong word. I opened the charts and basicaly found "what I want to see, where I want to see it" almost instantly which doesnt often happen. But yeah taking 10 mins beforehand seems like good advice.

In hindsight Im trying to tell myself that I shouldnt take that setup again, but if im being honest I probably would, sure it was deep into the daily range, but the target was small,only 1:1R. (Before the low).
And meets the rules of the method im using, plus there was a potential exit when a sign of attength appeared which I should have acted on.

Its good chatting about it though as it gets me thinking more about the trade rather than just forgetting about it.

That journal looks descent mate, il look into it
  • #33,958
  • Edited 1:34pm Sep 9, 2021 12:08pm | Edited 1:34pm
How I see things:

  1. Background Weakness
  2. No Demand after Shortening of Thrust. Eligible for short
  3. Stopping Volume @ Support
  4. All 4 bars are testing Supply below the Support line. No Supply on the highlighted bar and so price is likely to go higher
  5. (Hidden) Test/No Supply -> Shakeout -> Move Higher

Questions:

  1. Are there any glaring issues with my analysis?
  2. Would you classify #5 as a No Supply bar or a Test or Hidden Test?
  3. Would you classify the bar before #5 as a ND or a (Hidden) Test? I want to say the latter since the majority of the bar is below the close of the prior bar? But since it closes higher than the prior bar, I'm not sure if that invalidates it as a test.
  4. Can someone break down how they would safely enter #5 on the chart?

    1. My inclination is to enter above #5 w/ a stop below the low of #5.

      1. When price dipped lower, would that invalidate the trade for you, or would your buy stop stay the same, and your stop loss widen to the lows of the shakeout bar?
      2. Or would you place a stop around 1.181 so that support also acts as an additional obstacle?

  5. Or is there no true trade here at all and this is all hindsight bias?

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  • #33,959
  • Sep 9, 2021 4:54pm Sep 9, 2021 4:54pm
Quoting Macallik
How I see things: Background Weakness No Demand after Shortening of Thrust. Eligible for short Stopping Volume @ Support All 4 bars are testing Supply below the Support line. No Supply on the highlighted bar and so price is likely to go higher (Hidden) Test/No Supply -> Shakeout -> Move Higher Questions: Are there any glaring issues with my analysis? Would you classify #5 as a No Supply bar or a Test or Hidden Test? Would you classify the bar before #5 as a ND or a (Hidden) Test? I want to say the latter since the majority of the bar is below the...
This is just what I see, the experienced guys will have a better explanation/opinion.

I reckon 5 is a No Supply - Down bar, narrow spread, closing in the middle with volume less that the previous 2 bars. The fact that it made a LL would give it some more weight. I would have put my pending order 2 pips above the high.

The next bar fails to break the high and trigger you in, I would see it as a test, although technically it has increased volume, its not much of an increase in comparison to previous bars, I would move my order down to the high of this bar. With SL at the previous LL at 1.18050 to be more conservative, although your stop loss idea at 1.181 would be descent and give you a nicer RR.

I like how the test reacts off your daily support line.

I would have taken this trade.

Would be good to hear other opinions.
  • #33,960
  • Edited 4:35am Sep 10, 2021 4:22am | Edited 4:35am
Hey guys just wondering If I can draw on some of your experience.

With VSA Ive been trying to work out the method and timeframes that suit my lifestyle and trading personality.

From what I see there are traders here from all timezones, and I consider myself pretty lucky that I can attempt do this full time plus I live in the UK so I can catch the Frankfurt open, all of London and NY sessions.

Although Ive mainly been trying to look for H1 entries from HVZ's, I know they can be few and far between, so yesterday I decided to add in the 30 min timeframe on top of H1 which would open up more opportunities whilst still giving enough time to place entries and have chart breaks.

One thing that im sure is important to most is not only a "Return on Investment", but also a "Return on Time", so yesterday I was on the charts from 6.30am (30 mins before Frankfurt Open) up until London Close, and despite watching 10 pairs, and checking charts every 30 mins (2xM30 candles and 1x H1 candles per hour) I couldn't find any trades that met my rules (low Vol ND/NS/Tests at HVZ levels).

So ive been thinking about a better way to go about this by using lower timeframes whilst trying to mitigate some of the noise and lower probabilities.

Just to add aswell, whilst making my way through this thread I noticed a comment from Malcolm, he was talking about keeping it simple after previous posts of members posting "complex looking" charts with various indicators and theories, whilst getting no result. (EvR )

So logically im thinking " If an expert keeps it simple.... then why would someone less experienced make it more complicated"

So Im going to try and implement some of what I already know before VSA which is market structure. Order Blocks (SnD zones) with VSA to increase the probabilities because in my limited experience, just placing limit orders at order blocks doesn't work consistently even with a higher TF bias unless using some more confirmation I.E VSA. Whilst obviously keeping it as simple and efficient as I possibly can like Malcolm says.

This was the trade Idea on GU this morning and is discovered in Hindsight

Rules: Candle must make contact with the order block before considering an entry using VSA, also must have Hull confirmation (although this might not work in this example.


H1/H4- Hulls pointing up, long bias (simple HTF analysis/bias)

M15- We have a break of market structure to the upside confirming bullish intent. The point of interest is the OB that caused the break (White Box)

M1- Look for a confirmation entry using VSA one we have had a touch of the OB.

1. Reverse Up-Thrust? (had to look at MTM to define this), potential SOS, but this isnt confirmed within the next 2 bars which doesnt look to promising.

2. No Supply that makes a LL than the previous bar which is confirmed with the next bar being an up bar. Potential entry here, but would need at least a 5 pip SL to avoid being tagged on the next move down which I reckon would be acceptable on the 1M chart.

Issue with this entry is that we dont have hull confirmation, and I cant see a further entry when Hull turned green.


M5 - Alternative entry timeframe

1. I would class this as a hidden test which tested the OB, and the WRB to the far left (I know its not <2 volume but if I compare vol and spread then it is pretty low). To me this looks like the "better Looking" entry with a stronger SOS with a more defined SL placement. But again we dont have hull confirmation yet.

2. 2 bar pattern higher up into the move with hull confirmation. Yes we have hull confirmation but I guess this is a juggling act between risk/reward as we have already had an aggressive move with potentially less profit potential left.


This trade method/idea is based on a combination of trying to keep it simple, offer enough opportunities (return on time), and with a higher probability than just setting limit orders at OB/SnD zones by using VSA- "What we want to see, where we want to see it"

Any thoughts/Criticisms of the method/ideas/entries presented would be appreciated, and thanks for taking the time to read this post as I know it has been a long one

Cheers
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