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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #3,521
  • Sep 4, 2021 6:32am Sep 4, 2021 6:32am
Quoting Zeus20
The brutal truth about day trading is that it is GAMBLING.
Use all the statistical measures and See for yourself.
As long as you accept and understand that and use a gambler's mentality, you may have a slim chance!

Hi Zeus,

Yes, I agree it is gambling that we do.

And now you’re talking some lingo, or background, or heritage, or whatever it is, that I have had some experience with .

But this “gambler’s mentality” needs to be defined please.


I might venture at this point, before clarification/definition, to suppose that it just CANNOT be the same for ALL ….. gamblers.

Imho it is NOT a trait. It is a psychological abherration, that is temporary and therefore not STATIC.

Because we are all, in some way, individuals (well I reckon).

But how this mentality plays out though for each person, will likely have its variances AND its similarities.


Let me say this

I do NOT agree with the common held belief, I came across, that is written so often about trading, or traders.

And that is the dual venom of --- GREED and FEAR.


To me there is only one weakness, one mistake or one gambling error.

And that is quite singular.

GREED.
  • #3,522
  • Sep 4, 2021 6:34am Sep 4, 2021 6:34am
For example a ‘GAMBLER’ might take a good win from the roulette spin.

And think to themselves, “I am on a roll”. So they bet up, “again”, with the houses money (or so they now think).
That equals GREED imo. As they already HAD their profit.


That same gambler though might have lost their full brief on some roulette spins.

And then go off to the ATM and withdraw some more $$.

Thinking it ‘must’ be their turn now to get a winner. Still it's greed imo, by wanting MORE than what they have.


Wanting MORE is the ultimate weakness. In many folk.

I remember a terrific movie from ages past. Humphrey Bogart and Edward G Robinson.

Key Largo.

Bogie has to work out Edward G’s (Johnny Rocco) weakness, his soft underbelly if you like.

And they had a clip of it on You Tube (of course they did, lol, love the tube)


Inserted Video
  • #3,523
  • Sep 4, 2021 6:38am Sep 4, 2021 6:38am
Quoting gepards
{quote} {quote} All those links cost some money. kette advocates a volumes trading strategy. And show no evidence about consistent results at least for 3 months. Only some screenshots with positive days results. Not honest. Brutal truth - do not buy any indicator. Trade stocks. See when a good company stock price drops X% - go BUY. Observe stocks, see what X% is reasonable. Maybe 5%, maybe 15% - depends on stock. No indicators are needed. Very simple. Go use finviz.com to filter out stocks to trade. Trade only SP500 stocks with trading volumes >...

from now on you are sympathetic to this saying
"do not buy any indicator"

IT'S ALL FREE TO TEST
a complete footprint
only available for mt5 if interested


DeltaRiver.Pro MT4/MT5 - Beta Project Running
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  • #3,524
  • Sep 4, 2021 12:56pm Sep 4, 2021 12:56pm
Quoting kette
{quote} from now on you are sympathetic to this saying "do not buy any indicator" IT'S ALL FREE TO TEST a complete footprint only available for mt5 if interested DeltaRiver.Pro MT4/MT5 - Beta Project Running {image}
Installed. For now it is working. Not clear how long will be "beta". Yes for now it is free.

Watched videos that were available for free on their website. Paid learning how to trade that strategy is 350 usd.

From free video one statement "DeltaRiver show where ... bla bla bla... with high probability". As all this cant be used in strategy tester then cant check what is that "high probability".

As nobody provides statistics where can see that "high probability" number and not possible to test with an EA.. then cant use that.

The only option is to forwardtest several months, and trade manual. They promissed algo trading ~1 year ago as I see in FAQ - not done jet.

Think their business model is gaining money with courses to invest and develop their platform, then from "beta" it will become non-beta and some subscription fee will be applied.

Still as I understand - they rely on volumes from limit orders and market orders. All those red/green bars with numbers does not provide info about big guys with deep pockets who just put their finger on ENTER button and wait... money in account... but no pending order, and no opened deal jet. Still that vollume exists under 1 button press. Who can predict that? Who can say what order they will put in market after 1 second? No data about that i think... so all this volumes strategy still relies on some past data and fake future data (pending orders). as any indicator.

I might be wrong. I m newbie and ask stupid questions
  • #3,525
  • Sep 4, 2021 1:25pm Sep 4, 2021 1:25pm
One thing you will never see from any "day-trading" guru or "expert"...is a three
year independent audit of their trading account.

At least four major unversity studies that either tracked, for example...300 day-
traders or trading indicators (like MACD etc...) over the course of a few years
determined that 98% lose their money over any one year. The 2% that do make any
money one year, will most probably lose their money the following year.

It's hilarical to hear the system-sellers say how much they "love to help people", so
that's why they're spending time "giving away" their system, instead of spending
time trading. If they really loved to help people, why are they CHARGING people for
their "system"???. Not very charitable.

Understand this: On any average day in the market...5% of stocks will trend up. 5%
of stocks will trend down. 90% of stocks will oscillate, rendering any breakouts or
movement false...up or down. That makes the odds 9 to 1 against any day-trade. If
you try to be selective in any way...the best your odds will be is 8 to 1 against you. Would
you walk into a bar and tell eight people you want to fight them? That's your average
day trader.

There are THOUSANDS of hedge funds whose algorithms see any movement in the
market and immediately move against them to take profits. How? Because odds
are...they took a position much earlier because of their massive computer programs
that study price action. Like any casino, a hedge fund's 2% edge will destroy your
trading account.

Their strategy is to buy 2000 stocks long and sell 2000 stocks short each day and
hold one day or two days at most. Odds are...there's always massive money against
ANY position you take, no matter which direction you take. This is why you often
hear, "As soon as I jump on a trend...it moves in the opposite direction".

There is no other way for hedge funds to get IN or OUT. Their algorithms must spot
any volume coming into the market. Day-trading is a sucker's game at best.
  • #3,526
  • Sep 4, 2021 4:06pm Sep 4, 2021 4:06pm
Quoting gepards
{quote} Installed. For now it is working. Not clear how long will be "beta". Yes for now it is free. Watched videos that were available for free on their website. Paid learning how to trade that strategy is 350 usd. From free video one statement "DeltaRiver show where ... bla bla bla... with high probability". As all this cant be used in strategy tester then cant check what is that "high probability". As nobody provides statistics where can see that "high probability" number and not possible to test with an EA.. then cant use that. The only option...

i sell nothing
or program anything
only use these options for my trading classic market profile
the best indicator for me buy low sell high

unfortunately an EA cannot do that
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  • #3,527
  • Sep 5, 2021 12:58am Sep 5, 2021 12:58am
Quoting gepards
Still as I understand - they rely on volumes from limit orders and market orders. All those red/green bars with numbers does not provide info about big guys with deep pockets who just put their finger on ENTER button and wait... money in account... but no pending order, and no opened deal jet. Still that vollume exists under 1 button press. Who can predict that? Who can say what order they will put in market after 1 second? No data about that i think... so all this volumes strategy still relies on some past data and fake future data (pending orders)....
Stocks are listed in exchanges like London, Newyork etc... So info regarding volumes of real stocks is centralized and publicly available for free.

You can get real volumes for stocks in MT5 with real (not CFD) stocks trading account (only BUY posible).

But you can on 1 computer open 2 stocks accounts one real and 2nd CFD. Then you can make 2 EAs which work on each account and exchange data via mt5 shared data folder.

For backtests and strategy tester you will have to export real volumes data for past in an csv file and load in array object to use.

Doable. Stocks only.
  • #3,528
  • Sep 5, 2021 3:39pm Sep 5, 2021 3:39pm
The brutal truth about trading is:

When you no longer feel like you are guessing your trades ,,, thats when you have made it
  • #3,529
  • Sep 6, 2021 8:45am Sep 6, 2021 8:45am
Wow i`m surprised from the majority of day traders.
  • #3,530
  • Sep 13, 2021 12:58pm Sep 13, 2021 12:58pm
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} ... Remonpilip, Again, I have bad feeling you are comparing wrong group of markets participants, and doing conclusions ... Compare Hedge founds with other hedge founds ... big sample, not only the best ones. Find this broke ones for last 15 years, include them ... Compare individual traders with individual traders ... short- term traders with long-term traders... but I am afraid you do not find reliable data for this, because nobody will pay for such research having no interest or idea how to use them for own benefit. You are doing everything...
Hi, thanks for the good article. If you have a bad explanation about quantitative analysis, thank you
  • #3,531
  • Sep 13, 2021 4:38pm Sep 13, 2021 4:38pm
Quoting toncuz
One thing you will never see from any "day-trading" guru or "expert"...is a three year independent audit of their trading account. At least four major unversity studies that either tracked, for example...300 day- traders or trading indicators (like MACD etc...) over the course of a few years determined that 98% lose their money over any one year. The 2% that do make any money one year, will most probably lose their money the following year. It's hilarical to hear the system-sellers say how much they "love to help people", so that's why they're spending...
You guys are all the same you want this and that when you get it you move the thresh hold and keep moving it, I use macd and have a strike rate so high it will spin your head, but you have already made up your mind without learning, after reading this post I want to puke all over it, I personally have not sold anything to anyone and some many out there that help traders for nothing like me but you tar and feather us because you write without knowledge
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #3,532
  • Edited 6:55pm Sep 13, 2021 6:41pm | Edited 6:55pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} You guys are all the same you want this and that when you get it you move the thresh hold and keep moving it, I use macd and have a strike rate so high it will spin your head, but you have already made up your mind without learning, after reading this post I want to puke all over it, I personally have not sold anything to anyone and some many out there that help traders for nothing like me but you tar and feather us because you write without knowledge
I have been accused of selling pdf. I have been accused of being a charlatan. I have also been accused of not revealing my strategy. Adults under anonymity make false accusations and their buddies condone such accusations.
Know what you trade
  • #3,533
  • Sep 13, 2021 9:20pm Sep 13, 2021 9:20pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I have been accused of selling pdf. I have been accused of being a charlatan. I have also been accused of not revealing my strategy. Adults under anonymity make false accusations and their buddies condone such accusations.
yes the same happened to me mate , my strategy is simply easy to understand, and those guys can't understand themselves, kindest regards
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #3,534
  • Sep 13, 2021 10:01pm Sep 13, 2021 10:01pm
Quoting toncuz
One thing you will never see from any "day-trading" guru or "expert"...is a three year independent audit of their trading account. At least four major unversity studies that either tracked, for example...300 day- traders or trading indicators (like MACD etc...) over the course of a few years determined that 98% lose their money over any one year. The 2% that do make any money one year, will most probably lose their money the following year. It's hilarical to hear the system-sellers say how much they "love to help people", so that's why they're spending...
I think what you are saying makes a lot of sense.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #3,535
  • Sep 14, 2021 12:14am Sep 14, 2021 12:14am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} You guys are all the same you want this and that when you get it you move the thresh hold and keep moving it, I use macd and have a strike rate so high it will spin your head, but you have already made up your mind without learning, after reading this post I want to puke all over it, I personally have not sold anything to anyone and some many out there that help traders for nothing like me but you tar and feather us because you write without knowledge
Please teach us your method.Thanks in advance.
  • #3,536
  • Edited 1:27am Sep 14, 2021 1:15am | Edited 1:27am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} yes the same happened to me mate, my strategy is simply easy to understand, and those guys can't understand themselves, kindest regards

They will be all losers until they can shake off their own bullshit Aussie,

Until then just ignore them,
because if they cannot get their sh1t together soon,
the forex market is going to disappear and it will be too late,

The fiscal/monetary system as we know it is on its way out folks,

And it's happening right in front of your eyes as we all type,

Stupid cannot help the stupid.

  • #3,537
  • Sep 14, 2021 1:49am Sep 14, 2021 1:49am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} You guys are all the same you want this and that when you get it you move the thresh hold and keep moving it, I use macd and have a strike rate so high it will spin your head, but you have already made up your mind without learning, after reading this post I want to puke all over it, I personally have not sold anything to anyone and some many out there that help traders for nothing like me but you tar and feather us because you write without knowledge
Liar.

The probablity being a profitable retail forex trader is below 0.2% after a time periode of 5 years. Looking at your statements over the years it is likely much lower in your case. Complete distortion of reality - what a waste of time and waste of life. Get some help.

Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers.
  • #3,538
  • Sep 14, 2021 3:04am Sep 14, 2021 3:04am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Liar. The probablity being a profitable retail forex trader is below 0.2% after a time periode of 5 years. Looking at your statements over the years it is likely much lower in your case. Complete distortion of reality - what a waste of time and waste of life. Get some help. Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers.
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #3,539
  • Sep 14, 2021 3:06am Sep 14, 2021 3:06am
Quoting edge540
{quote} Please teach us your method.Thanks in advance.
well you know where to look if you are serious
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #3,540
  • Sep 14, 2021 3:43am Sep 14, 2021 3:43am
[quote=Aussi;13705045]{quote} well you know where to look if you are serious[/quote

If you are serious about wanting to learn how to trade then follow Aussie,

If you are expecting to be spoon-fed every step of the way,
then don't waste his time, or yours,
It's you that needs to put the effet in and learn.

Or you can keep listening to stupid people if you wish,
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