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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #3,481
  • Aug 26, 2021 12:37am Aug 26, 2021 12:37am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} B, A rule cannot trade a nuance or circumvent a data lapse. A rule based approach is and can only be solitary. The opposing force to objective is 'seen' as subjective but this is not Life. True objective merit and trading comes from going beyond rules and evidence and incorporates real learning. This is where people are lagging. If the knowledge and skill set isn't transferable between trading and real life, then it is false. And in my experience no rules or evidence can fill that gap. Peter
PC, every trader apply some form of objective rules in their trading. There will always be discretionary thinking in the decision making process. 100% objective rules based approach don't yield optimal result. The question is to what extent that's based on empirical evidence and what's left for discretionary thinking.
Know what you trade
  • #3,482
  • Aug 26, 2021 1:33am Aug 26, 2021 1:33am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} PC, every trader apply some form of objective rules in their trading. There will always be discretionary thinking in the decision making process. 100% objective rules based approach don't yield optimal result. The question is to what extent that's based on empirical evidence and what's left for discretionary thinking.


For me, your query runs deep into "too much of this vs too much of that". A simple eg is two people, one looks at the chart and has no idea what is going on and what could be building, while the other looks at the chart and sees what is happening and observes the options of what COULD come next and these options are based on experience and nothing more or less. 100,000 hrs exposure to charts is useless if the person is not taking notes AS the market exhibits different behaviors, movements and repeated interests. Regardless of platform of choice, starting capital amount etc, discretionary thinking is really just fancy language for "think for yourself". No mystery. This is a commodity in itself today in 2021.

It is alien or foreign for most people to see or want to see the whole picture. Why? Too task oriented. Too much 'school time' thinking. And do not know how to use their free time better. Objective vs subjective is misunderstood. Polarized thinking and Dialectics in play. "Choose this side or that side". Why not both?

Empirical really just means "Give me the basics that are real and observable and can be noted down on my note pad."

Up, down, left to right (usually) on price chart, time, open and close etc etc etc.

Industry structure AND infrastructure.

Where do the facts end and the personal side or opinion/belief begin? Hehehehehe ...... at that point where your next step is either off the cliff for a thousand foot DROP, or, over the edge wearing a parachute AND a wing suit so you are prepared.

Being prepared with contingencies (or not) is what helps to separate it all. It's not actually the parachute or wing suit itself, that is gonna save you, but the ability to CHOOSE to see more than what other people deem "necessary". Therefore, it's the buildup and lead up of all your thinking, observations, processes and knowing yourself. Sounds corny I guess, but that's how it is.

Knowing there's a market on that screen doesn't help.

I'm not sure if that helps but there it is.

It's where the 'facts and figures' cease to be effective and the person takes over.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #3,483
  • Aug 26, 2021 1:49am Aug 26, 2021 1:49am
Quoting jmn5611
I want red diamond well.. i just want it. that's it. people want things... you know.. so make me red diamond. Keep posting. One of the worst trolls I have ever seen on this site is a high impact member. Keep posting. It is not that hard.
I would give back my red diamond if I could. It only attracts unwanted attention. The wisest wisdom on ForexFactory can come from a new member, and sometimes has.
  • #3,484
  • Edited 9:06pm Aug 28, 2021 12:09pm | Edited 9:06pm
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  • #3,485
  • Aug 28, 2021 11:18pm Aug 28, 2021 11:18pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I can hedge if I have two separate accounts. I am experimenting with a hedge strategy where I buy and sell at a set price. Stop loss is ATR. It's still in development. I had an idea to trade without a stop loss using a hedge strategy. I would place a buy and sell trade at the current price, and then wait to see price move strongly in one direction. When the stronger currency would become clear, I would then close out the weaker trade. I would let the winner run until it reached 2x, then subtract the loss from the winner, and still be left...
If you dont want to tie up funds and you are a US resident , then look for assets having two levels of contracts . Indices have Full, split into 5 minis or into 50 macros. You buy 1 Full and sell 5 minis at same time you will enjoy may be a maximum of $20 margin reflecting the spread difference between the two contracts.
Once you decide to drop sell or buy to continue, your margin deposit reverts to full.
Hedging this way works for who have patience to hold hedge for hours, and days and dont release hedge lock out of boredom . This way of trading is tough and helps train mindset in a big way. It takes years of practice to experience how it turns you in consistently profitable trader having no fear or greed.
This strategy puts a lot of pressure when compressed rang trading continues for almost 3 weeks.
Deterimation of Range level and exhaustion point determination is crucial for it success.

Compressed range means a long wait of 3 to 4 weeks to release lock.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #3,486
  • Aug 28, 2021 11:25pm Aug 28, 2021 11:25pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I can hedge if I have two separate accounts. I am experimenting with a hedge strategy where I buy and sell at a set price. Stop loss is ATR. It's still in development. I had an idea to trade without a stop loss using a hedge strategy. I would place a buy and sell trade at the current price, and then wait to see price move strongly in one direction. When the stronger currency would become clear, I would then close out the weaker trade. I would let the winner run until it reached 2x, then subtract the loss from the winner, and still be left...
If you dont want to tie up funds and you are a US resident , then look for assets having two levels of contracts . Indices have Full, split into 5 minis or into 50 macros. You buy 1 Full and sell 5 minis at same time you will enjoy may be a maximum of $20 margin reflecting the spread difference between the two contracts.
Once you decide to drop sell or buy to continue, your margin deposit reverts to full.
Hedging this way works for those who have patience to hold hedge for hours, and days and dont release hedge lock out of boredom. This way of trading is tough and helps train mindset in a big way. It takes years of practice to experience how it turns you in consistently profitable trader having no fear or greed.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #3,487
  • Aug 29, 2021 12:11am Aug 29, 2021 12:11am
Quoting simnz
{quote} If you dont want to tie up funds and you are a US resident , then look for assets having two levels of contracts . Indices have Full, split into 5 minis or into 50 macros. You buy 1 Full and sell 5 minis at same time you will enjoy may be a maximum of $20 margin reflecting the spread difference between the two contracts. Once you decide to drop sell or buy to continue, your margin deposit reverts to full. Hedging this way works for who have patience to hold hedge for hours, and days and dont release hedge lock out of boredom . This way of...
Or I could simply use smaller lots for hedging, and leave enough capital for a weekly or monthly swing trade.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #3,488
  • Edited 5:47am Aug 29, 2021 1:40am | Edited 5:47am
Quoting here2there
{quote} Or I could simply use smaller lots for hedging, and leave enough capital for a weekly or monthly swing trade.
US residents have no choice except to trade on a futures platform offering at least two contract sizes in the same asset.

Any new idea has to be tested with minimum capital outlay.
If your broker allows hedging then go for what you can afford.

If you are not starting with a hedge to slide or jump from a strong resistance or support line (the way your and my strategy works)
then think of how many times you can go wrong.

If you estimate it at 20 times, each time re-locking at a distance of 50 pips, then 20 x 50 pips is going to be your tolerance level.

You have to close the bad hedge before it hits 21 times drawdown and treat as loss happening from bad hedge.

But it has not happened in my trading life. But it will happen if your psychology is not helping you bear the pain from being forced to consistenly keep relocking for 20 times .

The eventuality can't be discounted. It is better to be ready for it. In such a plan, your margin will be: 21 times x 50 pips = 1050 pips.
Pips will be same whether your contract value is 0.1 or 1. Money value will change .

You can start with 1050 x 0.10 lot = 105 full contracts
For each contract of US$1000 if you don't use leverage then 105 contracts will require $105,000

Leverage will decide your margin capital. You have to use money which you can afford to lose and which is not going to affect your normal life-style, keep your family in tact without jeopardizing kids welfare.

Which broker will you be using?

The broker who is offering you margin liquidation at 0% then plan accordingly and look for brokers from small islands of Vanuatu, Bahamas, Belize, Viring Islands which have no investor protection nor any regulations or laws to control the activities the bucket shops masquerading as Cfd brokers. Publicly listed brokers like IG and CMC also use such destinations to offer high leverage and make huge profits which can be easily ascertained from their quarterly reports and balance sheets.

If you believe in saving initial deposit then margin cutoff 50% will be ideal and look for EU regulated broker like Darwinex.

I always want to look for brokers who can offer me high leverage but ensure my initial deposit remains in tact, no matter what happens.
I look for leverage at 2% and margin cutoff at $500 (or less). In case I sustain I at least save 2% of my deposit for future tries.
I trade only futures and it is very difficult to find such brokers. So I stick to Interactive Brokers or AMP futures (MT5)

When I started a few years ago for hedging , I used to treat 8 to 12 weeks holding period counting the size of pips from high to low in the past period.
But now I look for symbols which can mean revert fast so that I don't have to have a high tolerance period.
I now look for 4 weeks trading range and then trade.
It worked well so far in last two years. However, in Aug month I got only one chance to release lock that helped recover my 10 days drawdown in one day.
All times highs (ATH) breaking new records with no respite in sight. Compressed ranges are not good for any hedging system.
I am hoping September first Friday (job report) will break this unprecedented all time high spree and unleash normal trading ranges.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #3,489
  • Aug 31, 2021 6:47pm Aug 31, 2021 6:47pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Just have to wait now for someone to ask 'does it repaint' ......
Hello mate
With this comment, You have made my day!
  • #3,490
  • Sep 1, 2021 11:38pm Sep 1, 2021 11:38pm
ryuryu why unsubscribed from RickM? You liked RickM very much. Do you still trade with his method of volumes?

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  • #3,491
  • Sep 3, 2021 3:17am Sep 3, 2021 3:17am
Quoting joyny
ryuryu why unsubscribed from RickM? You liked RickM very much. Do you still trade with his method of volumes? {image}
Looks like you are from CIA...
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #3,492
  • Sep 3, 2021 8:13am Sep 3, 2021 8:13am
Quoting simnz
{quote} Looks like you are from CIA...

KGB sends its regards
i laugh my ass off only idiots (DEMOTRADERS) care about everything
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  • #3,493
  • Sep 3, 2021 8:32am Sep 3, 2021 8:32am
Quoting simnz
{quote} Looks like you are from CIA...
what would you like to know?
  • #3,494
  • Sep 3, 2021 8:54am Sep 3, 2021 8:54am
think this thread was going to be dead... but now with help of CIA and KGB agents it will have a fresh restart

any conclusions so far? Did anybody read this entire thread and made some analysis? what is that "truth" everybody speaking?

here some my truth...

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yep... in 16 weeks just humble 6 swing trades... daytraders, please beat that performance

I am allways in a trade (BUY or SELL) here on FB stock. so simple - when to close opened BUY deal? when starting to stall? might be too early... when the perfect SELL setup arrives? Yes!! And vice versa. When closing BUY immediately open SELL and vice versa.

this is the real truth. With numbers and evidence. All the rest if no real results are provided is cheap talking only.
  • #3,495
  • Sep 3, 2021 9:02am Sep 3, 2021 9:02am
Quoting gepards
think this thread was going to be dead... but now with help of CIA and KGB agents it will have a fresh restart any conclusions so far? Did anybody read this entire thread and made some analysis? what is that "truth" everybody speaking? here some my truth... {image} yep... in 16 weeks just humble 6 swing trades... daytraders, please beat that performance I am allways in a trade (BUY or SELL) here on FB stock. so simple - when to close opened BUY deal? when starting to stall? might be too early... when the perfect SELL setup...

I
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  • #3,496
  • Sep 3, 2021 9:06am Sep 3, 2021 9:06am
Quoting kette
{quote} I {image}
please show 16 weeks performance stats. Something similar FF TE or MQL5 or myfxbooks stats provide. Some basic numbers - dd, profit %, trades count, profit factor etc.

consistency facts.. not 1 day results. some longterm. at least 16 weeks ok 12 weeks. daytrading results. so we can compare consistency.
  • #3,497
  • Sep 3, 2021 9:10am Sep 3, 2021 9:10am
Quoting gepards
{quote} please show 16 weeks performance stats. Something similar FF TE or MQL5 or myfxbooks stats provide. Some basic numbers - dd, profit %, trades count, profit factor etc. consistency facts.. not 1 day results. some longterm. at least 16 weeks ok 12 weeks. daytrading results. so we can compare consistency.

I CANNOT
because that says nothing
3 real I show times
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  • #3,498
  • Sep 3, 2021 9:29am Sep 3, 2021 9:29am
Quoting kette
{quote} I CANNOT because that says nothing 3 real I show times {image} {image} {image}
you show some good days thats it. clear - you cant show anything consistent. because you have bad days too. And you dont want to show us those bad days.

"says nothing"..well.. dd, profit factor... "says nothing"...? for 3 months period it says a lot. so you use MT4, please export report and hide money if you dont want us to see you trade 100 usd account... (I trade 100 usd account, not hiding that, who cares.. we are interested here in % not in ammount of money you trade).
  • #3,499
  • Sep 3, 2021 10:17am Sep 3, 2021 10:17am
Quoting gepards
{quote} you show some good days thats it. clear - you cant show anything consistent. because you have bad days too. And you dont want to show us those bad days. "says nothing"..well.. dd, profit factor... "says nothing"...? for 3 months period it says a lot. so you use MT4, please export report and hide money if you dont want us to see you trade 100 usd account... (I trade 100 usd account, not hiding that, who cares.. we are interested here in % not in ammount of money you trade).



YOU CAN FIND ALL MY TRADES HERE
EACH ONE IS PERFECTLY CHOSEN

Auction Market Theory and Market Profile
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  • #3,500
  • Sep 3, 2021 10:17am Sep 3, 2021 10:17am
Quoting joyny
{quote} what would you like to know?
About you.
Practice makes a person perfect
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