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vsa with Malcolm

  • #33,921
  • Aug 31, 2021 3:36am Aug 31, 2021 3:36am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} First of all.. I want you to talk to me about the bar I marked off in red. Second of all, using tight stop losses works well in VSA... but if you're going to take trades like a machine gun then you're going to experience what death by a thousand cuts feels like. Trading like this you may as well use a big stop loss, it would be cheaper. Using a tight stop loss, you have to pick your trades carefully and if your trade fails you need to sit back and figure out what went wrong. If I take a trade and it gets stopped out, then I'm done with that...
That bar you marked is SOW.

I agree with you, maybe I made too much trades, but it is faster TF.

But I think my broker is paiting diffrent candles, and this is giving me fake signals.
Daytrader
  • #33,922
  • Aug 31, 2021 3:50am Aug 31, 2021 3:50am
Not one of my proudest trades, but its a trade.

Looking at the H1 chart down bar where price failed to push below the close, good sign for the bulls.

Drop down to M15 climatic volume, this occurred after H1 was unable to break the close.

My entry kinda hard to explain. The bar after the climatic bar is a test-like bar. There is too much volume on this bar to be a test, but drop down to a M5 and there is very clear test within the M15 test-like bar. I was watching the pair and there was a fast down spike and I saw that price wasn't able to break the m5 test so I bought.

My exit, I was hoping to see price break the HVC from Aug 27th, but price spiked up and started retracing down and I closed as it retraced. Really sloppy on my part, I should have let the bar complete and trailed a stop.
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  • #33,923
  • Aug 31, 2021 4:06am Aug 31, 2021 4:06am
Quoting trezo
{quote} That bar you marked is SOW. I agree with you, maybe I made too much trades, but it is faster TF. But I think my broker is paiting diffrent candles, and this is giving me fake signals.
Maybe look into OBS. Its a screen capturing software, you can record your screen and compare afterwards.

But honestly I think you need to move up a few time frames. I started out on M5, as I progress I kept going up time frames.
  • #33,924
  • Aug 31, 2021 5:33am Aug 31, 2021 5:33am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Maybe look into OBS. Its a screen capturing software, you can record your screen and compare afterwards. But honestly I think you need to move up a few time frames. I started out on M5, as I progress I kept going up time frames.
Im trying not to go below H1 at the moment. I feel that anything lower and im jumping into trades left right and centre, an least with H1 if I see a potential setup, then there is plenty of time to react and even double check.
  • #33,925
  • Aug 31, 2021 6:12am Aug 31, 2021 6:12am
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} Im trying not to go below H1 at the moment. I feel that anything lower and im jumping into trades left right and centre, an least with H1 if I see a potential setup, then there is plenty of time to react and even double check.
It sounds like you're doing everything right. Working on your written trading plan, staying on the higher time frames. Keep doing what you are doing, there is no guarantees in trading but sounds like you're making things easier on yourself.

One of the mistakes I made early on that I regret is not keeping a better journal with screenshots of my trades. What I do now is pretty simple, the day after the trade is complete I take a screenshot of the trade and notate the screenshot with any mistakes made or anything I could've done better. Screenshots are great references, they reinforce good trades and also the notes have a way of highlighting problem areas.
  • #33,926
  • Aug 31, 2021 6:50am Aug 31, 2021 6:50am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} It sounds like you're doing everything right. Working on your written trading plan, staying on the higher time frames. Keep doing what you are doing, there is no guarantees in trading but sounds like you're making things easier on yourself. One of the mistakes I made early on that I regret is not keeping a better journal with screenshots of my trades. What I do now is pretty simple, the day after the trade is complete I take a screenshot of the trade and notate the screenshot with any mistakes made or anything I could've done better. Screenshots...

Yeah some good advice there, I do get a bit lazy with journaling myself tbh.
  • #33,927
  • Aug 31, 2021 6:58am Aug 31, 2021 6:58am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} It sounds like you're doing everything right. Working on your written trading plan, staying on the higher time frames. Keep doing what you are doing, there is no guarantees in trading but sounds like you're making things easier on yourself. One of the mistakes I made early on that I regret is not keeping a better journal with screenshots of my trades. What I do now is pretty simple, the day after the trade is complete I take a screenshot of the trade and notate the screenshot with any mistakes made or anything I could've done better. Screenshots...
I don't like higher timeframes so for me m15 is max I think.

If you want I have a indicator which is taking a screenshots automatically with opening a position, and maybe with closing I don't remember.
Daytrader
  • #33,928
  • Aug 31, 2021 9:48am Aug 31, 2021 9:48am
Quoting Anotan
I started out on M5, as I progress I kept going up time frames.Emphasis added
Someone once said, "The longer I trade, the higher the time frame I use." What he meant was: the more I learn how to trade, the higher the time frame I use.

I'm still working on the learning how part (that never ends), but I have moved to the 60 min chart. (Anotan's chart examples have been a part of this maturation).

I know people don't like my charts. But the point here is not that Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) works nor is it about the power of Wide Range Body Analysis (WRB), it's about the fact that even with the perfect entry (that's a big assumption I know) this trade would have taken almost 24 hours to develop. Good trades can take time. Yes, the Markets are fractal, but in many cases, lower time frames muddle up this fact.

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This example didn't take as long, but it still took more time than a 3 minute chart where every wiggle and waggle can be mind-numbing and account-draining.

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The late great Jessie Livermore talked about "being right and sitting tight". Higher time frames may or may not affect the being right part, but they certainly help with sitting tight.

And as for the haters, Tom Williams (the inventor of VSA) always said, " If it is here now, then it was there then."
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,929
  • Edited 10:49am Aug 31, 2021 10:21am | Edited 10:49am
USDCAD H1

I was watching this one earlier.

Price was trading within a volume zone from last week, failed to close below the low on Monday, and if it failed to close below today then I was looking for a long entry.

On the first candle marked price made a low volume test after showing some strength in the previous candles so I set a pending order for a break above.

On the second candle marked we had a shakeout with wide spread closing at the open showing strength.

After the 3rd candle failed to trigger me in, I cancelled the order due to the test being unconfirmed with a close above within the 2 candle rule.

Price rallied immediately after this and would have been a good trade but I'm debating if I could have done anything different here.

My thoughts are that I possibly should have considered the shakeout as a brand new entry candle and moved my pending order forward to this candle, which would have triggered me in.

Or was I right to cancel the order and wait for a further low volume test or NS to enter?
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  • #33,930
  • Aug 31, 2021 11:01am Aug 31, 2021 11:01am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Someone once said, "The longer I trade, the higher the time frame I use." What he meant was: the more I learn how to trade, the higher the time frame I use. I'm still working on the learning how part (that never ends), but I have moved to the 60 min chart. (Anotan's chart examples have been a part of this maturation). I know people don't like my charts. But the point here is not that Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) works nor is it about the power of Wide Range Body Analysis (WRB), it's about the fact that even with the perfect entry (that's...

Nice trade mate, The two bar pattern on mine had a higher volume 2nd candle so I would have missed that entry, but I do see a no-supply 2 candles later.
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  • #33,931
  • Sep 1, 2021 8:13am Sep 1, 2021 8:13am
GPBUSD H1

Current trade im in. Noticed a shared trigger number. Entry on the break above the test.
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  • #33,932
  • Sep 3, 2021 9:22am Sep 3, 2021 9:22am
Hi, can someone for me do analyze of this chart. Where you will looking for an entry, SL etc.
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Daytrader
  • #33,933
  • Sep 3, 2021 10:13am Sep 3, 2021 10:13am
Quoting trezo
Hi, can someone for me do analyze of this chart. Where you will looking for an entry, SL etc. {image}
What chart is it mate?
  • #33,934
  • Sep 3, 2021 2:21pm Sep 3, 2021 2:21pm
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} What chart is it mate?
just look at it
Daytrader
  • #33,935
  • Sep 3, 2021 2:27pm Sep 3, 2021 2:27pm
Quoting trezo
{quote} just look at it
would have taken you a split second to say the pair.

No worries though, you crack on
  • #33,936
  • Sep 3, 2021 2:28pm Sep 3, 2021 2:28pm
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} would have taken you a split second to say the pair. No worries though, you crack on
It's not that I don't have time to tell you what kind of instrument it is.
But If you have a chart with volume, thats all you need to make analyze for it.
Daytrader
  • #33,937
  • Sep 3, 2021 9:08pm Sep 3, 2021 9:08pm
Quoting Paulscaff1
GPBUSD H1 Current trade im in. Noticed a shared trigger number. Entry on the break above the test. {image}
What happened to the other post of yours where you asked a few questions on your stopped out trade? Those seemed interesting questions and I was hoping to see some enlightening responses
  • #33,938
  • Sep 4, 2021 5:20am Sep 4, 2021 5:20am
Quoting procmail
{quote} What happened to the other post of yours where you asked a few questions on your stopped out trade? Those seemed interesting questions and I was hoping to see some enlightening responses
Ahh sorry mate, yeah I deleted the post. I think I answered a couple of my own questions to be honest

I went over the trade a few times and think I realised my mistakes so didnt want to waste peoples time with having to come up with detailed answers.

Ive put it down partly to 2 things.

1. My stop was way too tight for the type of signal I took, I reckon it should have been above the swing high to the left. Also the candle that stopped me out never even touched my SL, my SL was actually hit due to rollover spread which I should have took into consideration.

2. With the time of day it was, just about every pair started printing low volume, narrow spread candles. So that is something im still a bit unsure of to be fair, but again, the wider SL would have helped here aswell.

So you could say the "Time of day for a H1 trade' question still stands

Ive started reading Gavin Holmes book aswell which has answered alot if my questions and will help me adjust my approach slightly coming into the new week. I recommend it mate
  • #33,939
  • Sep 4, 2021 7:00am Sep 4, 2021 7:00am
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} So you could say the "Time of day for a H1 trade' question still stands Ive started reading Gavin Holmes book aswell which has answered alot if my questions and will help me adjust my approach slightly coming into the new week. I recommend it mate
I also would like to know how other folks deal with the quieter times of the days as well. Do they still use the volume?

Also, which Gavin Holmes book, is it Shadow? Coincidentally I just started reading Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money (Vol 1) today after putting it off way too long.

Here's my take on your chart.

Due to the various reasons shown on the chart, I would hesitate entering on the candle you did. I'd be concerned price would retrace further due to the buying coming in, at least til a previous swing high to find selling. But if I did, the SL would be above the previous swing high, so entering nearer to the swing high would mean my SL is smaller.

I would be definitely TP once at the bottom blue bar and bring the rest of the trade to break even to see if prices continue down.

Now about whether the bar is an upthrust. Because price didn't upthrust then move down within the next 1-2 bars, I would not consider it a valid upthrust. Can't remember exactly at which point exactly you entered. But I'd probably wait for a confirming bar to be formed after that potential upthrust.

Just my 2 cents!
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  • #33,940
  • Edited 2:32pm Sep 4, 2021 10:03am | Edited 2:32pm
Quoting procmail
{quote} I also would like to know how other folks deal with the quieter times of the days as well. Do they still use the volume? Also, which Gavin Holmes book, is it Shadow? Coincidentally I just started reading Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money (Vol 1) today after putting it off way too long. Here's my take on your chart. Due to the various reasons shown on the chart, I would hesitate entering on the candle you did. I'd be concerned price would retrace further due to the buying coming in, at least til a previous swing high to find selling....
Yeah i think the bar was more of a reverse hidden test (if thats a thing ) a bit like a hidden test in an up move, only the opposite way round.

My sell stop was about 1-2 pips below the low of the candle, its a bit hard to see but the next candle tagged me in to the pip, then moved up, but it was a good few candles later when i was tagged out.

Overall so far I reckon im pretty happy with the trade, was only my stop placement in this particular scenario I got wrong I think.

If we had a nice high vol upthrust, followed by a test/no demand then I would have used a tighter stop above the upthrust. But due to the uncertainty I should have went for the swing high or at least above the HVC 50%.

My target was only something like 0.8R as I only needed 800 quid to get my mff evaluation back in the green for a retake, but im only 1% away so should manage that this week.

Aye mate, "In the Shadow of Smart Money"
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