{quote} Everything ok, you are doing the right thing by not trade that much this week. Wish you great friday/weekend
Ignored
Thanks DA!!! I feel better now. I think the Jackson Hole Symposium will affect the market strongly on Monday so i better stay away the market too. I hope next week can join more trade from your ideas.
It is a bit sensitive today to take a stand regarding Oil but I will present what I can see/interpret from charts.
Oil has fallen dramatically in 7 days after creating the last high at 70.00 / 10 level and led to us getting a new lower low at 62 levels.
The daily structure is bearish as long as 70 areas is not broken.
At 4hr, the price has created bearish divergence that failed and turned into wolf wave. Right now point 5 is under creation if this works then the price can aim for line between d1-d4 or deeper.
This scenario fails if the price breaks 70.
We also have 123 bearish at 4hr to support this scenario and are active as long as the price does not close above 68.80 on the 4hr timeframe where the target is 60/61 area.
We need to take into account Fed speech today of about 50min and be extra careful under these circumstances.
thank you DA, i got big profit today by your chart Gold @1789 to 1814.50 = 250 pips, GA from yesterday 40 pips, EJ from yesterday 30 pips
have a great weekend DA,
i still on oil with sl 70.12
in Gold from 1695 with sl positive 1755
Oil:
Weekly: Still waiting for the price to reach 60.20-58.60 area to look for buy long term, right now the price in the middle of nowhere.
Daily: Still not clear yet, If the price closes above the 25/08 bar then that will be a bullish sign, but if price went down and close below it then we may in the way of creating 123 bearish daily. Take into your account that the daily structure is still bearish.
4hr: The price did have a bearish divergence which failed and create point 4, right now price in creating point 5 (certain zone) if that has been done then we may see some down move targeting the line 1-4 area. Remember that point 5 in a zone so there is some more place to move up before starting a possible down move.
30m: The price is in a bearish divergence but will soon reach the risk zone which can offer some support, breaking this area then we are resuming down move.
I think Friday's news is already priced as the market had anticipated that the Fed is about to end its financial aid program and get shocked by Friday news. The thing is that the Fed has made up for this through a lot of announcements and now is the time to pay the price.
In fact, there is no reason for Eur, Aud or Gbp to become stronger not by purely economic measures, all continue with their financial aid program that provides no real reason to gain more strength. I expect the market to find this very soon and show us a different direction.
I don't believe that Eur, Au, Cad will keep their gain instead we will see some reaction after the market succeeds to see the reality.
That the NFP at the end of the week is another strong reason tells us that hesitation is still here as the Fed has linked its future decisions with the unemployment figures.
Based on this I am still dollar bullish at least until NFP news.
Good start for the week, Oil did move into point 5 zone only to find some resistance and start falling down, lets see if the wolf waves do the work for us.
EurUsd did move up as expected and find some resistance (never closed above 1806) now we should use 1810 as referens. SL close above 1810 and target the line 1-4
