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The Swamp

  • #89,581
  • Aug 27, 2021 3:15pm Aug 27, 2021 3:15pm
Quoting Boulder;13684810[COLOR=Red
]Be prepared for next week chop... first three days will be month end rebalancing...[/color]..you know how that goes... I have been mentioning that in this thread many times before... after that NFP next Friday... Be ready!!!!
that's why I can just do a little one. 1824 may get pressure.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #89,582
  • Aug 27, 2021 4:45pm Aug 27, 2021 4:45pm
Quoting saninvestor
Eu is still bearish. Based on weekly I think price could be trapped between a tight range for several weeks. Maybe 1.1610 and 1.1860. Below 1.1610 could be rejected for several weeks. Overall trend is bearish on weekly and very bearish on daily and extremely bearish on H4. But those tough levels below have some serious bouncing potential. I will be aware of gator's numbers. They are really dangerous. Thanks to boulder for COT sharing. Seems it's flashing red light for bears....
On a bearish market, such fast up moves could reverse anywhere. I will closely look at 1.1824 ish as boulder day downtrend stop. Maybe we are at beginning of an uptrend, but fundamentals and COT telling another story.
I have still my shorts underwater. Hope bears hold the day trend.

Have a nice weekend all.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #89,583
  • Aug 27, 2021 5:05pm Aug 27, 2021 5:05pm
expecting a CAT 4. 140 mph winds.
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #89,584
  • Aug 27, 2021 6:07pm Aug 27, 2021 6:07pm
fyi.
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  • #89,585
  • Aug 27, 2021 6:23pm Aug 27, 2021 6:23pm
Quoting gatorinla
expecting a CAT 4. 140 mph winds. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9f3KlJtV-M
or Cat 5.

oil rigs in the gulf in front a cat 5, dont look good. A rise in oil, favors gbp.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #89,586
  • Aug 28, 2021 12:07am Aug 28, 2021 12:07am
nest week eur/usd
areas of interest. https://charts.mql5.com/29/798/eurus...al-limited.png
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #89,587
  • Aug 28, 2021 12:16am Aug 28, 2021 12:16am
gbp/usd

https://charts.mql5.com/29/798/gbpus...al-limited.png
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #89,588
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:31am Aug 28, 2021 7:31am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Aug 24th COT report , for the week Aug 18 to Aug 24th,GU price moved from 1.3786 high on Aug 18th to 1.3632 low on 8/21, hedge funds closed some longs and add massive GU shorts for the week {image}
but why after COT release both EU and GU moved up?
  • #89,589
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:34am Aug 28, 2021 7:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} or Cat 5. oil rigs in the gulf in front a cat 5, dont look good. A rise in oil, favors gbp.
Gator, is it true that US printed 40% of USD amount during covid period (last 2 years)? (i mean they increased quantity of USD by 66%)
  • #89,590
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:38am Aug 28, 2021 7:38am
Quoting genadi
{quote} Gator, is it true that US printed 40% of USD amount during covid period (last 2 years)? (i mean they increased quantity of USD by 66%)
total quantity of USD increased by 66% during 2019-2021
and 40% of todays total USD amount is printed during 2019-2021
  • #89,591
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:51am Aug 28, 2021 7:51am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} or Cat 5. oil rigs in the gulf in front a cat 5, dont look good. A rise in oil, favors gbp.
sorry, english is not my first language, i am not sure if i am asking correctly, so i will show in graph

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  • #89,592
  • Aug 28, 2021 7:52am Aug 28, 2021 7:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} added a small short. . Speculators are usd long (eu short).. Yet eu price went up.... So evidently the speculators were wrong. But they usually end up right later.. later may be 18xx.. atm 5 min support at 1786..15 min 1779. even now on a 5min chart, speculators are wrong.
Agree.. large Speculators eg hedge funds made bearish bets on Eur and Gbp up to Jackson hole, ending up Powell didn't deliver the message. One thing made me very puzzled, why they sent all hawks to talk on CNBC last two days before Powell speech, while Powell delivered a completely different message.
I know we did have big option expires on bond/yields on Friday, which might have affected the market. Anyway, Speculators are good with trends if we look at big picture. I think sooner or later their bearish bets will play out...here is three year chart about Eur price and how big players positioned themselves..Large speculators are in green line in top chart..
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  • #89,593
  • Aug 28, 2021 8:17am Aug 28, 2021 8:17am
Hunker down Gator! Stay safe.
  • #89,594
  • Aug 28, 2021 8:30am Aug 28, 2021 8:30am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Agree.. large Speculators eg hedge funds made bearish bets on Eur and Gbp up to Jackson hole, ending up Powell didn't deliver the message. One thing made me very puzzled, why they sent all hawks to talk on CNBC last two days before Powell speech, while Powell delivered a completely different message. I know we did have big option expires on bond/yields on Friday, which might have affected the market. Anyway, Speculators are good with trends if we look at big picture. I think sooner or later their bearish bets will play out...here is three...
if I remember correctly, there were big option expires for 10 yr at 1.32% level last Friday

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  • #89,595
  • Edited 8:56am Aug 28, 2021 8:45am | Edited 8:56am
Quoting genadi
{quote} but why after COT release both EU and GU moved up?
Never use COT report for day trading.. for me COT report is more about the big picture related to trends which may take weeks or months to develop..
  • #89,596
  • Aug 28, 2021 11:19am Aug 28, 2021 11:19am
Quoting genadi
{quote} Gator, is it true that US printed 40% of USD amount during covid period (last 2 years)? (i mean they increased quantity of USD by 66%)
I dont know. I wouldn't worry about what makes the car run. All you need to do is, drive it. You dont have to be a mechanic to drive it.

Lots of printing went in during 2008/09.. Yet the usd strengthened. Things dont always do, what many think it should. If a shitload is printed, most think its diluting the usd. Yes, probably it does. But if the demand is greater. The usd may still strengthen. The diluting may have little or no affect. The usd could rise. Worry more about what you see, than what you think. KISS is probably best. Some analyst will explain the cause, and affect. Mostly after the move, they will try to make things fit. Its a world of bullshit. Tell me what will happen, before the move.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #89,597
  • Aug 28, 2021 11:28am Aug 28, 2021 11:28am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Agree.. large Speculators eg hedge funds made bearish bets on Eur and Gbp up to Jackson hole, ending up Powell didn't deliver the message. One thing made me very puzzled, why they sent all hawks to talk on CNBC last two days before Powell speech, while Powell delivered a completely different message. I know we did have big option expires on bond/yields on Friday, which might have affected the market. Anyway, Speculators are good with trends if we look at big picture. I think sooner or later their bearish bets will play out...here is three...
nobody sent them. The governors are independent. They all like to give an opinion. Human nature is to be right. Before the rest of them. Its a lot easier to give an opinion, when your not the first chair.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #89,598
  • Aug 28, 2021 2:05pm Aug 28, 2021 2:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} eu 1824 for day R. GU 3846
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #89,599
  • Edited 2:51pm Aug 28, 2021 2:34pm | Edited 2:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} {image}
Promise me to watch this, it may change your life......I watched this many years ago,,,I liked it... here just first 20 mins, you can find full movie in Netflix
Inserted Video
  • #89,600
  • Aug 28, 2021 3:33pm Aug 28, 2021 3:33pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Promise me to watch this, it may change your life......I watched this many years ago,,,I liked it... here just first 20 mins, you can find full movie in Netflix https://youtu.be/_b1GKGWJbE8?t=6
I never watched it. You can go see a live show.. I saw something about it about 1 year ago. I think one picks a bunch of predetermined facts about themselves. (A paper describing self) Then the man with great accuracy picks the the person those facts fits. I will watch it later..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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