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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #3,461
  • Edited 3:30pm Aug 22, 2021 2:45pm | Edited 3:30pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Wags mate, your mention of 8 years send me down memory lane, love your thread will always remember the fun time on it. About this choice in front of you, follow the "safe" money - the long term consistency. Forex may appear to have unlimited upside by adding zeroes to the lotsize. But this business is inherently risky that can easily come crumbling down to nought if hit by black swan event. Or the infamous tilt day where we go mad with revenge trading to destroy all we have built. I'm sure you know that already and wise enough to make...
Yes mate great memories when binary options was at its peak, weird thing is i have been chatting to you on and off for the last 8 months or so and didnt even realise who i was talking to lol, you took me under your wing on that thread

I am taking a little time out to concentrate on my website not saying i wont be posting and chatting on here as i enjoy all the bits of banter and knowledge all share on this thread

Trouble is i dont like giving up lol

I have always said in my posts that DD is key for me so when i get hit with a bad one where all things were in place for the trade to work out good i need to reevaluate, its the holding over each night which is the problem at the moment but that said if i had large account with the risk i would like to use that would not be a problem with the results i normally achieve everyweek, the good by far outweighs the bad

I was a lot more aggressive in my positions last week and got hurt

Wags
  • #3,462
  • Aug 22, 2021 10:43pm Aug 22, 2021 10:43pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Its still strongly Bullish delta, I have been trading with volume with a bias in the same direction - Long. Taken about six different longs, all brief trades but the profits tick over like money in the till. Cheers
did you take a lot of profit on the long?)))
  • #3,463
  • Aug 23, 2021 2:34am Aug 23, 2021 2:34am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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No needs for High winrates....... Started this 80K FTMO Challenge 16-8-2021, close to 22k profit which is like a 25% increase.
This is not done by High risk trades but Low risk trades with good reward opportunities. Not even risking 1% of the account per trade!
This is done by daytrading and scalping, not swing or position. I dont post this because i want to flaunt my profits but this is what happens when you dont strive for perfection. You dont have to make 25% per week, thats not the point. The point is growing your account even being wrong most of the time.

If you as a trader can do that and dont over leverage your account......... you will have the Holy Grail.
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #3,464
  • Aug 23, 2021 3:10am Aug 23, 2021 3:10am
Quoting JustPipping
{image} No needs for High winrates....... Started this 80K FTMO Challenge 16-8-2021, close to 22k profit which is like a 25% increase. This is not done by High risk trades but Low risk trades with good reward opportunities. Not even risking 1% of the account per trade! This is done by daytrading and scalping, not swing or position. I dont post this because i want to flaunt my profits but this is what happens when you dont strive for perfection. You dont have to make 25% per week, thats not the point. The point is growing your account even being...
This hype of high win rate is buried, dead and gone.
Know what you trade
  • #3,465
  • Aug 23, 2021 3:14am Aug 23, 2021 3:14am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} This hype of high win rate is buried, dead and gone.

Amen.
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #3,466
  • Aug 23, 2021 4:10am Aug 23, 2021 4:10am
Quoting Stanislav-A
{quote} did you take a lot of profit on the long?)))
Hi Stanislav

I took about 6 trades for a total about 0.20% increase in equity.
They were just my working trades to get to my daily profit target, then I have freedom to trade larger and for longer time periods.

I normally manage about 0.14% increase in equity per hour scalping, the real fun begins once I achieve 0.25%.


Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #3,467
  • Aug 23, 2021 4:33am Aug 23, 2021 4:33am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{image} In this picture sits a person's perception, opinion, and belief about basically everything. Basically ANY 'thing', idea, topic or subject you can think of. The world of trading is a great spotlight. Here is another ...... {image} Now, before you dismiss this as BS etc, consider this - information is not an answer. It's a mile marker. When a person externalizes their problems, they cannot find a solution. More information is no answer either. It only intensifies the problem. If a person REALLY spends enough time observing every facet of their...
I belive you. I just dont care about all thease things you write
  • #3,468
  • Aug 23, 2021 6:17am Aug 23, 2021 6:17am
Quoting ficibald
{quote} I belive you. I just dont care about all thease things you write

Attached Image


Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #3,469
  • Aug 23, 2021 8:15am Aug 23, 2021 8:15am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} {image}
Brrr
  • #3,470
  • Aug 23, 2021 11:56pm Aug 23, 2021 11:56pm
Dear mates,
If i may ask question and opinion regarding Bayesian probability in trader decision making tool.

What is Bayesian probability in simple term for new begginer like US ?

I like imagine if we have that Bayesian probability tool in our decision that always update (manually) new evidence or information based on price reaction on stimuly or other fundamental and teknikal indikator info.

Its good idea I think.

Hope Iam not bother this thread.

Better to focus on SOLUTION than explain the problem we face in trading.

Best regards
  • #3,471
  • Edited 12:48am Aug 24, 2021 12:35am | Edited 12:48am
Quoting deanyakobs
Dear mates, If i may ask question and opinion regarding Bayesian probability in trader decision making tool. What is Bayesian probability in simple term for new begginer like US ? I like imagine if we have that Bayesian probability tool in our decision that always update (manually) new evidence or information based on price reaction on stimuly or other fundamental and teknikal indikator info. Its good idea I think. Hope Iam not bother this thread. Better to focus on SOLUTION than explain the problem we face in trading. Best regards
Hi bang deano, you ask a very good question.

The first thing to understand bayesian is to compare it to it's opposite. The frequentist philosophy is the bedrock of my math. Watch the video pls.

Inserted Video
Know what you trade
  • #3,472
  • Aug 25, 2021 3:13pm Aug 25, 2021 3:13pm
Attached Image
Grit; Knowledge; Right Mindset; All you need to overcome. KIS!
  • #3,473
  • Edited 4:49pm Aug 25, 2021 4:19pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting pipibrasci
{image}
It’s hard to say

Probably
G…. What is the M1 delta doing

Followed closely by
H…. …….. Where is my hedging point.

When in a trade, I never look at the bar chart but focus on the blue or red delta signals coming through from live data - looking for a reason to stay in or cover my position.
In the corner of my eye, I pick up if the profit box is green for profit or red for loss.

It’s all over in 10 seconds to 5 minutes.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #3,474
  • Aug 25, 2021 5:49pm Aug 25, 2021 5:49pm
Quoting pipibrasci
{image}
Neither.

How much I can make on a new trade does not come into play and I already have determined how much I can lose before placing the trade.

Some additional input:

Bag up the traditional risk/reward and throw it away.

Stop asking yourself is it worth it (how much you can make vs how much you can lose) and start telling yourself you cant afford not to take the trade, risk is an opportunity that others are not willing to do.

A little perspective switch and it will revamp your entire trading existence.

Real active trade example:

AUDUSD
Bought at .7141
Sunday night (US Central time)
6 Standard lots

Mindset in play here, thinking .7100 is protected for the time being, I was ready to risk 50 pips on this trade. Among a few other observations, I went long and here we are.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #3,475
  • Aug 25, 2021 7:35pm Aug 25, 2021 7:35pm
Quoting pipibrasci
{image}
"How much I can make?"
Why would I think of that?

"How much I can lose?"
Why would I think of that?

If both means nothing to YOU, carry on.

If either means something to YOU then act accordingly.

Ofc there's a proper manner and reason to think and act but the discussion would insult others who think differently and set off another quarrelling drama. So why say anything specific.

Answer - do what YOU think is right for YOU, nobody is changing other people's mind.
Know what you trade
  • #3,476
  • Aug 25, 2021 11:50pm Aug 25, 2021 11:50pm
I was asked yesterday by someone about building an account with intraday trading in a fast but safe way. Hehehe .... safe ?! Ok.

As it relates to day trading, I want to post this here. Also it needs to be said, that I'm not in the habit of reading other people's 'stuff' then calling it my own. What I speak of here is what I use everyday and has been used for decades very successfully. But remember, this will be basic so apply to your own situation after reading it and understanding it.

Day trading, is, in some ways, akin to fishing. Some people like to chase their prey while others lay in wait, letting time be their erosive probability tool. As probabilities swing both ways, you can have positive and negative erosion. It's just the nature of the waiting game.

Margin - While some (or many people) subscribe to a 'use X% of account for SL/hedge)' practice, I prefer to use margin capacity. What is it? In a market that allows margin to be applied to trading, every contract you send to market carries a 'security deposit' AKA margin requirement, in line with the leverage attached to that trade order (or now, for many, the instrument).

Seeing as this margin amount is unusable while that order is in play, it is reasonable to assess your trading approach, to make available the option to 'distance trade' your order. Eg - 1 ticket for a scalp, 1 for costings and 1 for a bigger anticipated move. I've done it this way for a long time and with the appropriate setup, it is simple enough to do. The one part that has to be clarified .... track the body of the market and trade with the wicks. Body of the market is Open to Close of the overview time frame or tick value chart view you use consistently. It is your way to observe big vs small fluctuations while seeing the overall movements.

Margin on call ....

Eg - you trade the EURAUD and it costs $50 USD per 1K contract with leverage applied. So for every 1K order it will need X to multiply/enhance the margin capacity. That is, $50 divided by X profits (total profitable trades in whole pips). Each whole pip is worth something for each market. EURAUD is right now, about $0.10 per pip with 1K. So about $1.00 for 10pips. And $10.00 for 100 pips. So $50 / $10 = 5. Do your own divisions and multiplications as needed here to suit your approach. Psychologically speaking, $50 is certainly more realistic than say $1000 or more. This is why all this talk about "double your account" etc, to me, sometimes, is highly counterproductive. Some people have never gained $50 from their trading, imagine how far away $1000 would seem and feel.

So now look at you trading approach and strategy. What is the nature of it? People get far too caught up in just one or two things and forget that $50 is accumulative. Be it with 1 trade generating the full $50 in one go, or many smaller gains added together. This is obvious to some but while you're busy trying to get rich day trading, the markets always offer something for every choice of approach. Hence the reason why I speak about being well rounded.

So now, how many trades (net profit) would you need to retain, to then acquire your $50 for the margin requirement for the NEXT 1K order you want to activate?

What many fail to see, is that longevity in trading is ALL about THIS and almost nothing to do with much else....... in this particular context.

"Making money" is an idea, a gimmick even. But obtaining your knowledge and then 'keeping what you work for' IS the name of the game.

A good step to add here, is to gain appreciation of how long it feasibly takes your trading to accumulate that $50. Always use usual trading conditions as the starting point for doing this as legitimate black swans come and go.

Compounding interest = Money. Time. Price.

Once all this is done, look at your analysis. And look at what you have learned. I sense people are too focused on contract size and the whims of 'what this means' and forget that even a small contract can bear fruit. If you are objective about this, you can see in many markets you have to pay to play. Even if you get it back later. It's something you cannot use while you're playing with just that one card. So it helps to have many cards.

Profits are good but profits+growth is better. Why would someone perpetuate a trading approach that only uses 1K orders with a $200K account? Putting aside broker corruption or 'end of the world' stuff, what is the point in having a large account (that is in someone ELSE's hands) if you're not going to use it? So something is always compounding somewhere. Think about this.

The Perpetual motion of time is either helping you or hurting. And margin is a great way to determine if your approach/es actually work. I am saying that it requires less time, usually, to accumulate the amount for margin than it would to "double your account" or 'make a thousand dollars'. Therefore there are also the psychological factors in all this to consider. In YOUR mind, is it easier or 'safer' to set goals of incremental nature rather than big lofty pipe dream goals? If you're being truthful here, the answer is clear and obvious.

And so for me, margin capacity is a great tool to grow what I do. $50 is FAR easier to achieve than $1000. So although that $1000 may be your wage etc, it might be the 'quiet end goal' building in the background meanwhile, your trading's growth is in play. It's about foreseeable goals versus a BEHEMOTH goal that may scare you out of the game.

And then, on a day in the future, your 1K order has become a series of 1K orders, or perhaps of larger size. If you are doing your trading properly, you will be organized enough to make the market bend to its own greed and fill your orders, you just have to find where and when. And then all this BS people go on about re: large orders being filled or not, will be just that crap you scrape off the bottom of your shoe...... pointless and irrelevant.

For me, there's already far too much banter about what is real/true or not from people, when talking about financial markets and trading them, that we don't need to add more to it.

Perhaps a significant blockage to people improving their trading, sits with the misunderstanding what a tangible goal really is all about.

Is it simpler for you to reach out and touch an accumulated $50 or $1000 RIGHT NOW?

There's your answer. THAT is where you need to begin. If your psyche shuts down or runs and hides, you're finished.

Something else many people may or may not have come across...... Crisis trading. Not worldly events but your own personal crisis. Why do you intend on building your account via day trading?

Again, this is where something tangible and understandable is necessary. And later on, you'll hopefully learn at some point, that the extra 0 you place on your total order lot size is inconsequential because the 0 doesn't 'make the trade', you do.

Margin capacity trading builds accounts but lofty goals usually stresses accounts and causes poor decisions and creates reckless thinking. This has been my experience thus far on the subject.


I hope that helps


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #3,477
  • Aug 26, 2021 12:04am Aug 26, 2021 12:04am
Quoting PeterCaleb
I was asked yesterday by someone about building an account with intraday trading in a fast but safe way. Hehehe .... safe ?! Ok. As it relates to day trading, I want to post this here. Also it needs to be said, that I'm not in the habit of reading other people's 'stuff' then calling it my own. What I speak of here is what I use everyday and has been used for decades very successfully. But remember, this will be basic so apply to your own situation after reading it and understanding it. Day trading, is, in some ways, akin to fishing. Some people...
As long as wishful and unrealistic entries and exits are not made, trading provides a source of income when the market is active and tradable.
Your approach makes sense for manual traders like me who treat speculation as a business. Betting is done but in a measured and disciplined way.
Incurring doubtful debts (drawdown) or bad debts (equity loss) and working for "less loss, more profits" works well.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #3,478
  • Edited 12:28am Aug 26, 2021 12:16am | Edited 12:28am
Quoting simnz
{quote} As long as wishful and unrealistic entries and exits are not made, trading provides a source of income when the market is active and tradable. Your approach makes sense for manual traders like me who treat speculation as a business. Betting is done but in a measured and disciplined way. Incurring doubtful debts (drawdown) or bad debts (equity loss) and working for "less loss, more profits" works well.
What then constitute "not wishful and realistic entries and exits"?

This is aimed at the core of this speculation business.

To ME, a quantified objective rules based approach backed by empirical evidence addresses your statement.

Like with all gambling activity, the aim is to reduce the uncertainty content of the bet.
Know what you trade
  • #3,479
  • Aug 26, 2021 12:23am Aug 26, 2021 12:23am
Quoting simnz
{quote} As long as wishful and unrealistic entries and exits are not made, trading provides a source of income when the market is active and tradable. Your approach makes sense for manual traders like me who treat speculation as a business. Betting is done but in a measured and disciplined way. Incurring doubtful debts (drawdown) or bad debts (equity loss) and working for "less loss, more profits" works well.


Indeed.

Re: entries and exits ...... the difference between ACTUAL price moves vs anticipated price fluctuations. Difference between blowback AKA floating loss (temporary negative price movements behind order fill price before market moves in your favor) vs "maybe" price moves.

Floating loss vs ACTUAL realized loss. I see people calling floating loss drawdown and other things. No wonder people are confused and arguing. Indeed, a nominal amount of float is acceptable but poorly contained realized loss can be harmful.

I will say to people here and now .....

= Schrödinger's cat + Occam's Razor.

= Emotional .... be honest, be truthful and be genuine about your intentions.

An on chart eg of Margin capacity ......


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Margin on call.png Size: 10 KB
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #3,480
  • Aug 26, 2021 12:31am Aug 26, 2021 12:31am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} What then constitute "not wishful and realistic entries and exits"? This is aimed at the core of this speculation business. To ME, a quantified objective rules based approach backed by empirical evidence addresses your statement.


B,

A rule cannot trade a nuance or circumvent a data lapse. A rule based approach is and can only be solitary. The opposing force to objective is 'seen' as subjective but this is not Life. True objective merit and trading comes from going beyond rules and evidence and incorporates real learning. This is where people are lagging. If the knowledge and skill set isn't transferable between trading and real life, then it is false. And in my experience no rules or evidence can fill that gap.




Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
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