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  • #3,441
  • Aug 22, 2021 1:35am Aug 22, 2021 1:35am
Quoting RickM
{quote} No one has 90% win rate, its all a lie if your take profit is set at 100 pips. YES What if you knew how to enter a trade that goes almost straight into profit THEN you protect your equity with a stop set at Break even plus 1. YES ITS POSSIBLE
Very clever, Rick.

I used to do it with final runs for liquidity but, to be sincere, I felt like trading on FOMO. Maybe poisoned by the popular idea that we need to set RRRs and all that.

But you're right, that the stunt for that particular technique is rapidly moving your SL to BE.

Now, considering the proximity of your planned SL to your entry and the relative cost of your order, doing something like that, maybe, on M15 and above would reduce a lot the friction caused by the broker's commission.
  • #3,442
  • Aug 22, 2021 1:44am Aug 22, 2021 1:44am
Quoting scherzi
{quote} Very clever, Rick. I used to do it with final runs for liquidity but, to be sincere, I felt like trading on FOMO. Maybe poisoned by the popular idea that we need to set RRRs and all that. But you're right, that the stunt for that particular technique is rapidly moving your SL to BE. Now, considering the proximity of your planned SL to your entry and the relative cost of your order, doing something like that, maybe, on M15 and above would reduce a lot the friction caused by the broker's commission.
to be honest, moving SL to BE and taking of 80% off the trade after some 10 pips will helps in equity growth. once the daily target is met no need to take off any thing, make it BE and sit, tried and tested thing but entries have to be perfect, and aggressive in closing the trades if price goes against.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #3,443
  • Aug 22, 2021 1:47am Aug 22, 2021 1:47am
Quoting bilal1947
now we are left with how much one want to gamble of his equity, so its all comes down to risk management and amount of equity available where a small 3% can be enough for living, for that either he should have that much equity and trust on broker and a contingency plan in place or a Funded account.


or if one think he is so perfect and can make 20% from a small equity and still make a living is the dream every other person wants to achieve (95% of the case perhaps), and if one is so perfect he should still look for a funded account as a safer...
This is the traditional conservative "safe" road that we all understand.

Quoting bilal1947
or if one think he is so perfect and can make 20% from a small equity and still make a living is the dream every other person wants to achieve (95% of the case perhaps), and if one is so perfect he should still look for a funded account as a safer bet.
This is the "gambling" stigma that many traders naturally shun because of the negative propaganda.

There are other "gambling" models that offer a better chance for success if the trader opens his restricted mindset to explore the world of forex trading.

If I'm not wrong I must be the first person on FF to advocate this "gambling" mode for forex trading.

Bilal, as a fellow accountant, think deep and hard why I would suggest such an approach.
Know what you trade
  • #3,444
  • Aug 22, 2021 1:51am Aug 22, 2021 1:51am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} to be honest, moving SL to BE and taking of 80% off the trade after some 10 pips will helps in equity growth. once the daily target is met no need to take off any thing, make it BE and sit, tried and tested thing but entries have to be perfect, and aggressive in closing the trades if price goes against.
Also, the more confidence you get, the more you will let your trades run as you take partial profits here and there.
  • #3,445
  • Aug 22, 2021 2:10am Aug 22, 2021 2:10am
At the end of the day its just basic math.

The winrate is irrelevant, if you have a strategy that wins around 50% and it pays you out 1:3 most of the time, your good if you follow your plan. For me if im very patient i could achieve a 65/75% winrate but thats not what im aiming for. If im right about 50% of the time im content, this is with built in human mistakes! Also i understand why some chase the 80/90+ winratio. It sounds majestic right? Try achieving a 90+% ratio for the rest of your trading carreer.....
These are burdens you lay upon yourself without you even knowing its irrelevant.

And this comes from someone you is quiet a perfectionist.
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #3,446
  • Aug 22, 2021 2:46am Aug 22, 2021 2:46am
Quoting JustPipping
At the end of the day its just basic math. The winrate is irrelevant, if you have a strategy that wins around 50% and it pays you out 1:3 most of the time, your good if you follow your plan. For me if im very patient i could achieve a 65/75% winrate but thats not what im aiming for. If im right about 50% of the time im content, this is with built in human mistakes! Also i understand why some chase the 80/90+ winratio. It sounds majestic right? Try achieving a 90+% ratio for the rest of your trading carreer..... These are burdens you lay upon yourself...
fully agree.

but if people say 90% winrate not possible I have fun and post some EAs where winrate is 97%. just for fun. I know that EA have 13% SL. And eventually that EA will hit SL several times. And question is about how fast it recovers after SL. And total profit year by year. But not winrate.

regarding investors... most of them are like traders... 80% make bad investments. Put all capital in 1 signal. Or run away from signal when it hit SL or dd... people... the very best moment when to start copy any signal is when it recently had dd. and stop copy when it BE after dd.

no win rate can guarantee you anything. Or I see signals which run with averaging or martingale or grids or all those together what worked 2-3 years... o yes this is moment when newbies investors start to copy... wrong... this is most dangerous moment... any signal worked without SL/dd 2 years is very high probability to hit that disaster.

when better to buy an stock? when price down right? why to buy expensive stocks? the same for signals... actually for any trading (automated or manual). trade on demo - when have X% dd start to trade live. get out of dd - stop trading live continue to trade on demo. try that... I have n EAs designed to work like that.. for 20 years history that worked fine. Follow this thread to see how it will work out after 1-2 years.
  • #3,447
  • Aug 22, 2021 2:57am Aug 22, 2021 2:57am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Since Gambling is inherit in forex business, either one win some or lose all of it, no in between like in other businesses where even if one loose the value of his product due to excess supply he still can get something of his item, or worst case all the stocks burnt some scrap can be made out of it which is not the case in Forex so it is gambling. now we are left with how much one want to gamble of his equity, so its all comes down to risk management and amount of equity available where a small 3% can be enough for living, for that either...
Hi bilal, few months back I took the trouble to write this post. People fail to understand what it means. This post ties in with my gambling post here. The trader can't understand and not open to gambling concept with Forex trading unless he rise above the 3 issues that I listed. How good a trader depends on how well he master these 3 aspects. I'm sharing with you my thoughts.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post13443170
Know what you trade
  • #3,448
  • Aug 22, 2021 3:20am Aug 22, 2021 3:20am
Quoting gepards
{quote} fully agree. but if people say 90% winrate not possible I have fun and post some EAs where winrate is 97%. just for fun. I know that EA have 13% SL. And eventually that EA will hit SL several times. And question is about how fast it recovers after SL. And total profit year by year. But not winrate. regarding investors... most of them are like traders... 80% make bad investments. Put all capital in 1 signal. Or run away from signal when it hit SL or dd... people... the very best moment when to start copy any signal is when it recently had...

Well im not interested in your EA and your trading style wouldnt fit me at all so i pass on that. I know it can be achieved but it doesnt matter, especially manually keeping up with 90+% winratio while having multiple variables that effect your decision making. For example having a bad day, being depressed to a certain degree, you havent had your coffee, bad sleep and go on.

There are little to none persons on this planet that can achieve a kind of zen like state for the rest of their lives without excessively training for years of their lives. Your not a computer!

That being said, most traders who make claims to win almost everything are newbies excited about all the new info they are gaining and the possibilities that comes with it, while not considering that they have to maintain that for the rest of their lives and the mental stress it will bring if they cant achieve it.

I was the same over optimistic beginner and i still am a beginner with only 4,5 years under my belt. In this 4,5 year i lost a down payment on a house trying to master the fx market, but it learned me a valuable lesson. Dont chase perfection in this god forgiven business, keep it simple,find a edge that offers a good return against your risk and your set. It doesnt matter if its a Fibonacci retracement, trendline bounce/break, moving average crossover or whatever.

One advice i can give is if your searching for the answer...... Find your niche and let the business roll instead of chasing high winrates.
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #3,449
  • Aug 22, 2021 3:35am Aug 22, 2021 3:35am
Quoting gepards
there is 1 thing i want. here is the deal - I want red diamond well.. i just want it. that's it. people want things... you know.. so make me red diamond (engage needed count of people to follow me) then I will trade 3 months manual with 1 trade per week and no scalping. Will post chart before entry and explain why exit. like I did here. agree?
Dear gepards. I like quite a lot of your posts. But never subscribed... because some of your posts are strange... ok we all have some child inside but... dont know how old you are... what is your connection with Peter... fake whatsap "screenshot".. (it is funny but fake, addmit that) the same as thread dedicated to Peter... wtf? well your behaviours here in FF is... dont know.. childish...

but then I remember auricforecas. Liked his approach and thinking a lot. Sorry he left FF more than year ago. He told not ignoring anyone. He told sometimes genuine info comes out from even evil haters. He was so focused on his cheetah strategy..

Ok.. you get +1 subscriber.

trade safe.
  • #3,450
  • Aug 22, 2021 3:58am Aug 22, 2021 3:58am
Quoting JustPipping
At the end of the day its just basic math. The winrate is irrelevant, if you have a strategy that wins around 50% and it pays you out 1:3 most of the time, your good if you follow your plan. For me if im very patient i could achieve a 65/75% winrate but thats not what im aiming for. If im right about 50% of the time im content, this is with built in human mistakes! Also i understand why some chase the 80/90+ winratio. It sounds majestic right? Try achieving a 90+% ratio for the rest of your trading carreer..... These are burdens you lay upon yourself...
IMO People who stress themselves out of their minds to achieve a "90%" win rate are people who consider the importance of the second part of your equation as a myth ... I.E Positive Risk - Reward ratios.

I can totally understand why someone who risks $1000 to make $250 would seriously need to have a ridiculously high win rate.
  • #3,451
  • Aug 22, 2021 4:21am Aug 22, 2021 4:21am
Quoting Koop
{quote} IMO People who stress themselves out of their minds to achieve a "90%" win rate are people who consider the importance of the second part of your equation as a myth ... I.E Positive Risk - Reward ratios. I can totally understand why someone who risks $1000 to make $250 would seriously need to have a ridiculously high win rate.

Yes indeed! i have a friend who trades and he doesnt have a real set of rules. He doesnt use a SL, he doesnt have a systematic approach like if this happens according to my plan then i can expect this. He is a scalper and really does a good job and i can understand his points of buying or selling but yet he cant explain me why he buys or sells there........ and he scalps for like 2-10 pips. He doesnt watch which kind of news comes out and just doesnt care.

So i asked him, you dont use a SL? Then what is your risk to reward? He told me i just win most of my trades....... Then i asked what will happen if there is a flash crash? What if your long while there is a FOMC meeting or NFP or any other news of importance that will drive price down fast and eat a chunk of your capital? What is your Risk to Reward?

This is just one example of bad money management and there are probably millions of traders that make the same mistakes or different ones for that. As a trader your not in the game of winning all trades, your in the game of protecting your capital while at the same times growing it with a systematic/mathmetic/algorithmic/technical approach that allows you to take the risk!
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #3,452
  • Aug 22, 2021 4:54am Aug 22, 2021 4:54am
Quoting JustPipping
{quote} Yes indeed! i have a friend who trades and he doesnt have a real set of rules. He doesnt use a SL, he doesnt have a systematic approach like if this happens according to my plan then i can expect this. He is a scalper and really does a good job and i can understand his points of buying or selling but yet he cant explain me why he buys or sells there........ and he scalps for like 2-10 pips. He doesnt watch which kind of news comes out and just doesnt care. So i asked him, you dont use a SL? Then what is your risk to reward? He told me i...
Lol spot on.

Unfortunately, some think that just because they refuse to accept the existence of realized R to reward ratio each time they close a trade, then it doesn't exist.

It's just as important as Win rate. In fact, in my personal trading, it's more important..
Doesn't matter if you're daytrading or swinging, You automatically put the odds in your favour if your wins outweigh your losses in VALUE.... not just quantity.
  • #3,453
  • Aug 22, 2021 5:55am Aug 22, 2021 5:55am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi bilal, few months back I took the trouble to write this post. People fail to understand what it means. This post ties in with my gambling post here. The trader can't understand and not open to gambling concept with Forex trading unless he rise above the 3 issues that I listed. How good a trader depends on how well he master these 3 aspects. I'm sharing with you my thoughts. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post13443170
Hi BW

Thanks for sharing and referring me to it.

regards
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #3,454
  • Aug 22, 2021 8:08am Aug 22, 2021 8:08am
Quoting gepards
{quote} ...I want red diamond well.. i just want it. that's it. people want things... you know.. so make me red diamond (engage needed count of people to follow me) then I will trade 3 months manual with 1 trade per week and no scalping. Will post chart before entry and explain why exit...
I have a rule when it comes to following people on FF. If someone follows me, then I follow back. That is why you see I have no subscribers but only Buddies. If a Buddy decides to kick me to the curb, then I do the same to that unfriendly person. In short, if you want me to follow you, then you now know what to do.

I am not interested in your EA. I wouldn't be able to use it anyway. I believe I know how you trade. You are a hedger, right? I can't trade like that (not in the same way), because my broker does not allow me to do so. It's one of the unfortunate things of being a US citizen trader.

Hedging strategies work well for people who are not bound by 'no hedge' rules.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #3,455
  • Aug 22, 2021 8:12am Aug 22, 2021 8:12am
Quoting joyny
{quote} Dear gepards. I like quite a lot of your posts. But never subscribed... because some of your posts are strange... ok we all have some child inside but... dont know how old you are... what is your connection with Peter... fake whatsap "screenshot".. (it is funny but fake, addmit that) the same as thread dedicated to Peter... wtf? well your behaviours here in FF is... dont know.. childish... but then I remember auricforecas. Liked his approach and thinking a lot. Sorry he left...
some day will told you about Peter.. for now it is what it is.. ok let me be whatever you call me. respect that.

Look at auricforecas TEs in profile... amazing...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auric_tes.png Size: 74 KB

i get his idea... fx is very dangerous place to be with money. so instead on focusing on long-run he focused on short sprints but highly effective. there is some logic... 12 profitable trades in a row and olala... 100 usd to 400k done. have a similar idea (100% per week profits target) in my head, get 100% per week with demo account - posted here in this thread... but when trade with live money not so easy... if manual then need focus. need time. dont have such stable EA which could do that in automated fashion.
  • #3,456
  • Aug 22, 2021 8:24am Aug 22, 2021 8:24am
Quoting here2there
{quote} I have a rule when it comes to following people on FF. If someone follows me, then I follow back. That is why you see I have no subscribers but only Buddies. If a Buddy decides to kick me to the curb, then I do the same to that unfriendly person. In short, if you want me to follow you, then you now know what to do. I am not interested in your EA. I wouldn't be able to use it anyway. I believe I know how you trade. You are a hedger, right? I can't trade like that (not in the same way), because my broker does not allow me to do so. It's one...
tnx good rule. did the same.

yes have some EAs with hedge and some manual trades hedge too. I like hedge for stocks. I hedge 2 different stocks.

Have 1 strategy (very stupid) where I hedge GBPUSD - open 1 SELL, then 2x more volume BUY and thats it (keep both deal opened). If SL then close. I know very very stupid strategy but it was working 10 years. Here now some live results for that stupid hedging strategy:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hedge_gbpusd.png Size: 50 KB

not very impresive but lets give a try for 1-2 years then see..

you maybe can hedge with special ETFs... there are such ETFs intended for hedging for example you BUY SP500 index and BUY (yes BUY) special ETF which goes against it. So you can hedge too somehow maybe:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hedge_sp500.png Size: 24 KB
  • #3,457
  • Aug 22, 2021 8:30am Aug 22, 2021 8:30am
I want red diamond well.. i just want it. that's it. people want things... you know.. so make me red diamond.

Keep posting. One of the worst trolls I have ever seen on this site is a high impact member. Keep posting. It is not that hard.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #3,458
  • Aug 22, 2021 8:41am Aug 22, 2021 8:41am
Quoting gepards
{quote} tnx good rule. did the same. yes have some EAs with hedge and some manual trades hedge too. I like hedge for stocks. I hedge 2 different stocks. Have 1 strategy (very stupid) where I hedge GBPUSD - open 1 SELL, then 2x more volume BUY and thats it (keep both deal opened). If SL then close. I know very very stupid strategy but it was working 10 years. Here now some live results for that stupid hedging strategy: {image} not very impresive but lets give a try for 1-2 years then see.. you maybe can hedge with special ETFs... there are...
I can hedge if I have two separate accounts. I am experimenting with a hedge strategy where I buy and sell at a set price. Stop loss is ATR. It's still in development.

I had an idea to trade without a stop loss using a hedge strategy. I would place a buy and sell trade at the current price, and then wait to see price move strongly in one direction. When the stronger currency would become clear, I would then close out the weaker trade. I would let the winner run until it reached 2x, then subtract the loss from the winner, and still be left with a gain. But I don't like the idea of taking so much off a winning trade, and trading like this could tie up funds.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #3,459
  • Aug 22, 2021 8:43am Aug 22, 2021 8:43am
Quoting gepards
Have 1 strategy (very stupid) where I hedge GBPUSD - open 1 SELL, then 2x more volume BUY and thats it (keep both deal opened). If SL then close. I know very very stupid strategy but it was working 10 years. Here now some live results for that stupid hedging strategy: {image} not very impresive but lets give a try for 1-2 years then see..
actually that strategy was not so stupid.. just optimized and turned out on GBPUSD it worked with 2 loops only the best. But now I think it might work great for trendy stocks or indexes.

the idea is simple - we have 1 entry point and opened for example BUY with 0.01 lots. When trade go against X pips we open SELL with 0.02 lots. If again retraced back and crossed our initial point we open 2nd BUY with 0.02 lots (no more raise volume). If still choppy markets and again X pips against our now 2 opened BUYs then open SELL with 0.02 lots. So every time we have +0.01 lots for any direction price finally decided to go (breakout of flat).

spreads do badly here if super choppy market. but now thinking maybe there exist some asset like SP500 or DAX or MSFT which could perform better...

this works only with hedging allowed.
  • #3,460
  • Aug 22, 2021 8:51am Aug 22, 2021 8:51am
Quoting gepards
{quote} actually that strategy was not so stupid.. just optimized and turned out on GBPUSD it worked with 2 loops only the best. But now I think it might work great for trendy stocks or indexes. the idea is simple - we have 1 entry point and opened for example BUY with 0.01 lots. When trade go against X pips we open SELL with 0.02 lots. If again retraced back and crossed our initial point we open 2nd BUY with 0.02 lots (no more raise volume). If still choppy markets and again X pips against our now 2 opened BUYs then open SELL with 0.02 lots. So...
The good thing about using smaller lots on a hedging strategy, such as 0.01 and 0.02, is the risk is much lower. However, the gain is also much lower. Thus, it takes a great deal of time to grow your account.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
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