The brutal truth of day trading | Page 171 | Forex Factory

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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #3,401
  • Aug 21, 2021 3:59pm Aug 21, 2021 3:59pm
Quoting Wags
{quote} Powerful Question, did you enter on that small candle with all the positive deltas or wait until footprint also broke above as well? This is something i look for without the footprint charts in my trading previously before i was trading pivots but using broker tick volume But i think delta is very misleading with tick volumes Wags
Check out this thread.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...e-delta-volume
Know what you trade
  • #3,402
  • Edited 4:17pm Aug 21, 2021 4:01pm | Edited 4:17pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Check out this thread. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...e-delta-volume

I went back to image, and realised i may have totally misinterpreted the what was being said
  • #3,403
  • Edited 5:24pm Aug 21, 2021 5:09pm | Edited 5:24pm
After 8 plus years of learning , testing and trying i am now at the point again where i am asking myself

How much more can i give this, should i have put all i have into this or into my website instead, which is profitable but would be a lot lot better if i had put in the same amount of time and energy

Do i give this anymore of my precious time?

Thats where i am, any trading technique aside.
  • #3,404
  • Edited 7:46pm Aug 21, 2021 7:23pm | Edited 7:46pm
Quoting Inadame
no one has 90% win rate consistently, it is all a lie
This is how one should think even in real life, be skeptical as always. Specifically when some fellows are too sweet to good to be with, they are the most bitter ones. Where everything is just so perfect something is fishy

Hahah dont ask my how did it happen then. I am not selling any course, signals. And i wouldn't be able to respond either except below chart to have some idea

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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trio:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #3,405
  • Aug 21, 2021 8:09pm Aug 21, 2021 8:09pm
Quoting Inadame
no one has 90% win rate consistently, it is all a lie
Don't have to be a genius at Forex trading, plain common sense tells us what's possible and what's not. We all understand the implication of such a high win rate. That's why I question the motive of such a claim regardless whether it be true or not. I know I won't be here on FF if it were true for me. Like I wrote earlier, the best elite trader will never point the finger at himself. Common sense.
Know what you trade
  • #3,406
  • Aug 21, 2021 8:30pm Aug 21, 2021 8:30pm
Quoting Wags
After 8 plus years of learning , testing and trying i am now at the point again where i am asking myself How much more can i give this, should i have put all i have into this or into my website instead, which is profitable but would be a lot lot better if i had put in the same amount of time and energy Do i give this anymore of my precious time? Thats where i am, any trading technique aside.
Hi Wags mate, your mention of 8 years send me down memory lane, love your thread will always remember the fun time on it.

About this choice in front of you, follow the "safe" money - the long term consistency. Forex may appear to have unlimited upside by adding zeroes to the lotsize. But this business is inherently risky that can easily come crumbling down to nought if hit by black swan event. Or the infamous tilt day where we go mad with revenge trading to destroy all we have built.

I'm sure you know that already and wise enough to make the right decision for yourself. If you need advice ask wifey, mum and dad mate.
Know what you trade
  • #3,407
  • Aug 21, 2021 8:49pm Aug 21, 2021 8:49pm
Quoting Inadame
no one has 90% win rate consistently, it is all a lie
No one has 90% win rate, its all a lie if your take profit is set at 100 pips.

YES

What if you knew how to enter a trade that goes almost straight into profit THEN you protect your equity with a stop set at Break even plus 1.

YES ITS POSSIBLE
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #3,408
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:03pm Aug 21, 2021 10:03pm
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In this picture sits a person's perception, opinion, and belief about basically everything. Basically ANY 'thing', idea, topic or subject you can think of.

The world of trading is a great spotlight.

Here is another ......


Attached Image



Now, before you dismiss this as BS etc, consider this - information is not an answer. It's a mile marker.

When a person externalizes their problems, they cannot find a solution. More information is no answer either. It only intensifies the problem.

If a person REALLY spends enough time observing every facet of their "opinion", they will find out the dark secret to it all...... It's hollow and without form. It has no strength and carries no wisdom. This should be your FIRST eye opener.

It is your ability to clarify the information that matters. Otherwise, you have to rely on "facts" and put your trust in something you cannot see a possible/feasible conclusion based on your own foresight of the possible outcomes. For this, there are ONLY two options = Either it is a natural skill, or, it is an acquired skill. But either way, the process is the same.

When people only practice practical and pragmatic thinking, they stop using their natural skill of combining vision with foresight. This is a KNOWN truthful fact about people and life. It's not a superstition or religious or spiritual or 'modern scientific belief'. Modern day living generally teaches/breeds it out of people.

The reason I am saying this here, is because some people find 'trading' more difficult than others. And if none have access to "insider information" then what would be the real life difference between these people?

When you get to my age, you are forced to face certain things. And some things are more practical than I care to admit. But this doesn't dilute the necessary appreciation one must have for these things.

From those above pictures I have shown here, there is ONE other perspective that is not accounted for. It is the perspective of all perspectives. It is the overview of it all.


Attached Image


This picture CAN represent gambling or luck etc. But it can also represent .... options. It is a 6 sided dice and it is a great representation of how many options for perspective someone has available to them at any one moment IN any situation.

I have been reading and following what many people here have been saying and speaking of. Only the troublemaking bozos and idiots will argue with the opportunity to learn something REAL that goes beyond personal conjecture or opinion or "belief" or their agenda. I know it's more than just opinion etc because I have spent my whole life learning, not collecting information in my head but actually learning.

Neurotic people love talking about the problem, complaining about the solving of that problem and tend to "create" an issue towards both the problem AND the solution/s. Therefore achieving and solving nothing.

Everything mentioned here is capable of helping each person solve their problems and improving their trading. Of course the people too afraid to face themself will say something to deflect attention off their problems, but to better eyes, it's easy to observe.

If you are still clinging to the "Oh you think you're better than us!" silly BS attitude, then you will fail at every turn of Life. Maybe today, tomorrow or next year, but it IS there.

If you're obsessed with only one perspective, you're missing the rest of what is happening.

My suggestion = Learn the REAL lessons and see what presents. You're no adult until you face this and learn these lessons. If you don't agree or believe me, you have 7 billion case studies to look at and see the basic truth and proof.

NB = If your faculties are not working properly, what good is a great strategy?


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #3,409
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:09pm Aug 21, 2021 10:09pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} No one has 90% win rate, its all a lie if your take profit is set at 100 pips. YES What if you knew how to enter a trade that goes almost straight into profit THEN you protect your equity with a stop set at Break even plus 1. YES ITS POSSIBLE
Find a strategy that allows you Move to B.E as safely and quickly as possible. Holy grail of trade management in my opinion. Sadly only started applying it later than i would have wanted in my journey.
Sure, you miss out on some opportunities that would have eventually worked out, but will help prevent some losses.

Where i don't necessarily agree with you is taking money off the table too early. Of what use is a 90% win rate if one is not confident enough or patient enough to milk the move on profitable trades?
  • #3,410
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:17pm Aug 21, 2021 10:17pm
Quoting Koop
{quote} Find a strategy that allows you Move to B.E as safely and quickly as possible. Holy grail of trade management in my opinion. Sadly only started applying it later than i would have wanted in my journey. Sure, you miss out on some opportunities that would have eventually worked out, but will help prevent some losses. Where i don't necessarily agree with you is taking money off the table too early. Of what use is a 90% win rate if one is not confident enough or patient enough to milk the move on profitable trades?
Yes, holy grail of zero pips loss. But if entries are executed in the wrong place, example a consolidation whipsaw area the cost will kill the account. If long entry is executed in falling market the stop will be taken vv, the cost adds up.

Your question is mine too.

To ME, the Holy grail is to know the future direction from some marked price. The accuracy of the entry is not important. So long as price does not hit our stop loss and hit the targeted exit.

Forex trading is gambling whether price hit our stop loss or profit target first. Doesn't matter the accuracy. Accuracy is not a required ingredient to profit from our trades. Accuracy is overly hyped.

The role that entry accuracy play is to minimise the pip cost of the trade.
Know what you trade
  • #3,411
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:26pm Aug 21, 2021 10:26pm
Quoting Inadame
no one has 90% win rate consistently, it is all a lie
I think it is possible. But I doubt anyone on FF is able to achieve this.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #3,412
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:31pm Aug 21, 2021 10:31pm
Quoting Koop
{quote} Find a strategy that allows you Move to B.E as safely and quickly as possible. Holy grail of trade management in my opinion. Sadly only started applying it later than i would have wanted in my journey. Sure, you miss out on some opportunities that would have eventually worked out, but will help prevent some losses. Where i don't necessarily agree with you is taking money off the table too early. Of what use is a 90% win rate if one is not confident enough or patient enough to milk the move on profitable trades?
It's my guess it would be a lot more than 'some'. I don't believe you have a 90% win rate consistently. Prove me wrong. Start a thread in the journals section and post your trades for the next 3 months.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #3,413
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:33pm Aug 21, 2021 10:33pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I think it is possible. But I doubt anyone on FF is able to achieve this.
90% winrate easily can be done with TP 1 and SL 100 or no SL at all... Then for several months win rate can be 90%... Several months you can be king and brag about your "success".
  • #3,414
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:41pm Aug 21, 2021 10:41pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Yes, holy grail of zero pips loss. But if entries are executed in the wrong place, example a consolidation whipsaw area the cost will kill the account. If long entry is executed in falling market the stop will be taken vv, the cost adds up. Your question is mine too. To ME, the Holy grail is to know the future direction from some marked price. The accuracy of the entry is not important. So long as price does not hit our stop loss and hit the targeted exit. Forex trading is gambling whether price hit our stop loss or profit target first....
And what would you choose:
To gamble with a minimal capital if lost no worries or trade for a living 50k make 3-5% every month?
"Exchange of hands"
  • #3,415
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:41pm Aug 21, 2021 10:41pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Yes, holy grail of zero pips loss. But if entries are executed in the wrong place, example a consolidation whipsaw area the cost will kill the account. If long entry is executed in falling market the stop will be taken vv, the cost adds up. Your question is mine too. To ME, the Holy grail is to know the future direction from some marked price. The accuracy of the entry is not important. So long as price does not hit our stop loss and hit the targeted exit. Forex trading is gambling whether price hit our stop loss or profit target first....
Quote
But if entries are executed in the wrong place, example a consolidation whipsaw area the cost will kill the account. If long entry is executed in falling market the stop will be taken vv, the cost adds up.
Well, that's where the efficiency or effectiveness of the chosen trading strategy comes into play. If losing trades are often being taken against the market direction, then there's something else fundamentally wrong with that strategy that mere trade management may not be able to fix.
Also B.E for me usually covers commission and spread costs, unless there's some slippage as price returns.


As for the issue of accuracy, i think that's a subjective because that's basically all i personally concentrate on these days. Accuracy to an extent allows one the confidence to stay in longer for a potentially big move and even if it doesn't go as far as hoped, the fact that you got in early or as close to a turning point as possible ensures that you at least get something out of it..

My planned trade progression is -

SL
Entry
Level 1 (trigger to move to B.E)
TP level.

My whole goal as a trader currently is fine tuning my system as much as possible that 7 times out of 10 price must get to Level 1 at least(which is not usually very far away).

Usual trade outcomes would be - Fewer losses, a couples of Breakevens and slightly more wins than losses.
Happy with that.
  • #3,416
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:42pm Aug 21, 2021 10:42pm
Quoting BWilliam
Being short term profitable is one thing. Being profitable over 10years is another. >$1 included. Having retired from trading for a living after 3-4decades is another. Being profitable that significantly change the traders life is another level. What FF members in similar discussions are interested in is this last category. 0.01% Such elite traders will never point to himself.
I see the difference now.

the OP was talking about “losing money in trading”, and the information provided is about net gain for day traders.

the second type/milestone you mentioned is what we have been always talking about - account net gain/loss

The definition of “consistently profitable” here in FF by many seems to be “no losing month/quarter/year”. It would be very difficult to achieve. It’s like elite athletes have to win all competitions in a given time.
Earning life changing amount of return also requires big capital (depends on what “life changing” is)

Top performing traders/funds averages at 20% annual gain and most suffered a drawdown in Q1/2 2020 and once in a while. They probably are regarded to be “unsuccessful”, “inconsistent” and “losing” according to some members here.

But yea broker reps would be happy to see many forum members talking about dreams instead of something more realistic and achievable for new traders.

trade well
  • #3,417
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:47pm Aug 21, 2021 10:47pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} It's my guess it would be a lot more than 'some'. I don't believe you have a 90% win rate consistently. Prove me wrong. Start a thread in the journals section and post your trades for the next 3 months.
Lmao why me? i'm not the one who made the claim..... That's RickM.

Traditionally, i aim for at least 2 times double my risk per trade so there's no way i could have such a win rate.... haven't found any yet. Maybe scalpers can?

I was only supporting his point about moving stops to breakeven quick.


Also, i think RickM's idea of 90% win rate is seriously skewed. There's a lot of rigorous hedging involved i believe.
  • #3,418
  • Edited 11:14pm Aug 21, 2021 10:47pm | Edited 11:14pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} It's my guess it would be a lot more than 'some'. I don't believe you have a 90% win rate consistently. Prove me wrong. Start a thread in the journals section and post your trades for the next 3 months.
I have 97% winrate. All trades audited here in myfxbook.

Go to this post for more details:

Quoting gepards
Here is my best account so far.. MSFT buy the dips. 1 manual deal was by mistake with TSLA sell... all other MSFT buy only fully automated. Optimized/backtested with 8 years history. Now 6 months working. Possible dd might be about 26%, using SL on 13% dd, so far max dd was ~5%.
regarding being king...

Quoting joyny
{quote} 90% winrate easily can be done with TP 1 and SL 100 or no SL at all... Then for several months win rate can be 90%... Several months you can be king and brag about your "success".
I have SL 13%. 8 years backtest shows SL can be hit on major stocks crash... when stocks crash 20-30%. This might happen 0 to 3 times per year. But as so high winrate then SL can be recovered in several months.
  • #3,419
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:51pm Aug 21, 2021 10:51pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} And what would you choose: To gamble with a minimal capital if lost no worries or trade for a living 50k make 3-5% every month?
I have written previously I will NEVER trade for a living. People get hurt and insulted by my post. Instead of try understand why I wrote it.

First of all, we are all gambling with Forex trading. If the trader assumes this gambling mindset instead of rejecting it, he has set himself up with a favourable mindset to win in this trading business.

Everyone is so ingrained to reject this gambling mindset that none have stop to think deeply on this subject. Don't expect me to explain why this is so. Even much harder to convince others about it.

I have written my opinion about this subject. It's up to each member to decide what they chose to believe in. However, whatever our individual choice will eventually contribute to the extent of our own success or failure.
Know what you trade
  • #3,420
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:53pm Aug 21, 2021 10:53pm
Quoting Koop
{quote} Lmao why me? i'm not the one who made the claim..... That's RickM. Traditionally, i aim for at least 2 times double my risk per trade so there's no way i could have such a win rate.... haven't found any yet. Maybe scalpers can? I was only supporting his point about moving stops to breakeven quick. Also, i think RickM's idea of 90% win rate is seriously skewed. There's a lot of rigorous hedging involved i believe.
I apologize. I misunderstood you. I doubt RickM has a 90% win rate consistently.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
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