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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #7,241
  • Aug 19, 2021 4:04am Aug 19, 2021 4:04am
Hit the bull support????? start looking for those long signals
  • #7,242
  • Aug 19, 2021 10:15pm Aug 19, 2021 10:15pm
It has also hit the AB = CD so I would think a long trade is due in an attempt to stop the EMA making a LL
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  • #7,243
  • Aug 20, 2021 6:47am Aug 20, 2021 6:47am
Looks like the average is trying for that LL so price should hit the next level at 3574....
  • #7,244
  • Aug 20, 2021 7:29am Aug 20, 2021 7:29am
Looks like the bears are just content to sit in the bath and do nothing allowing the EMA to keep falling.

I took a single long trade earlier on the 1 hour div but got stopped out for nothing..

Tooooooo quiet even for a Friday, roll on next week.
  • #7,245
  • Aug 21, 2021 9:47pm Aug 21, 2021 9:47pm
Hi Alan,

How long have you been developing this trading system? And compared to the early days, is there much change now?

I mean do you research and improve it year by year to keep up with market fluctuations? For example EMA, RSI, Divs, targets, entries or even other indicators are added...?

Regards,
  • #7,246
  • Aug 26, 2021 2:32am Aug 26, 2021 2:32am
Quoting tbyen
Hi Alan, How long have you been developing this trading system? And compared to the early days, is there much change now? I mean do you research and improve it year by year to keep up with market fluctuations? For example EMA, RSI, Divs, targets, entries or even other indicators are added...? Regards,
More a question of what I find I can do without in order to make it as simple as I can.

I suppose I must have been developing my methods ever since I started trading, trying different things and dismissing some for the sake of others.

I am happy with the way things are now, I have....

1) Timing
2) Signals
3) Money management
4) Targets

I don't use any theories at all, just what I see on the charts. If I see nothing I don't trade.

Mind you I don't believe in Gods, Ghouls, Goblins, Gremlins, Ghosts, Greys, so you see I am a realist.
  • #7,247
  • Aug 26, 2021 2:35am Aug 26, 2021 2:35am
My 1 hour looks like this currently, very little to go by and sitting at the EMA is for me not a trading situation.
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  • #7,248
  • Aug 26, 2021 4:05am Aug 26, 2021 4:05am
Quoting Nala66
My 1 hour looks like this currently, very little to go by and sitting at the EMA is for me not a trading situation. {image}
Hi Alan,
Is my chart valid?
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  • #7,249
  • Aug 26, 2021 6:05am Aug 26, 2021 6:05am
Quoting tbyen
{quote} Hi Alan, Is my chart valid? {image}
No not really, in fact not even close. You have only recognized the the regular bear divergence

The HD should be compared with where I have the X.

An ABCD triangle has to have B and C on opposite sides of the EMA

Like this....
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  • #7,250
  • Aug 26, 2021 9:40am Aug 26, 2021 9:40am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} No not really, in fact not even close. You have only recognized the the regular bear divergence The HD should be compared with where I have the X. An ABCD triangle has to have B and C on opposite sides of the EMA Like this.... {image}
Thank you for all of your time, patience, and guidance
  • #7,251
  • Aug 26, 2021 11:51am Aug 26, 2021 11:51am
Quoting Nala66
...
3) Money management ...
Not so long ago https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post13288602
you promised to "continue" the MM theme, but for some reason you did not. Maybe this time there will be a continuation.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13290283
  • #7,252
  • Aug 26, 2021 12:53pm Aug 26, 2021 12:53pm
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Alan can those H4 / H1 sup/res be of any use; i have seen price testing and rejecting those levels more than once.
  • #7,253
  • Aug 27, 2021 3:47am Aug 27, 2021 3:47am
Quoting Pilygrim
{quote} Not so long ago https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post13288602 you promised to "continue" the MM theme, but for some reason you did not. Maybe this time there will be a continuation. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13290283
I thought I did this in posts 6685/7... Is there something else I need to add?
  • #7,254
  • Aug 27, 2021 4:04am Aug 27, 2021 4:04am
Quoting huskyboy
{image} Alan can those H4 / H1 sup/res be of any use; i have seen price testing and rejecting those levels more than once.
Lots of people refer to these levels as supports or resistances but to me the support you have there was just a div on the left side and this happened in a slack time when price was just bouncing along.

I would be watching for the EMA to make the LL (arrow) and price to pull it down there.

Then after this happens I would be on the lookout for long signals.

I have added a few things to your chart here....
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  • #7,255
  • Aug 27, 2021 7:05am Aug 27, 2021 7:05am
Quoting Nala66
I thought I did this in posts 6685/7... Is there something else I need to add?
Sorry, but these pages were not displayed for me. I had to log in from another browser.
I have a question on the first point. It is not entirely clear to me how the first record of the minimum size affects the required target of 1k per session, if the main third trade is profitable?
Isn't it easier to wait for the movement to go in our direction and open a full lot at the place of the third deal? In this case, we do not periodically lose transactions with the minimum lot, and we will not need to work them out in order to return to the previous amount of the deposit.
  • #7,256
  • Aug 27, 2021 9:12am Aug 27, 2021 9:12am
Quoting Pilygrim
{quote} Sorry, but these pages were not displayed for me. I had to log in from another browser. I have a question on the first point. It is not entirely clear to me how the first record of the minimum size affects the required target of 1k per session, if the main third trade is profitable? Isn't it easier to wait for the movement to go in our direction and open a full lot at the place of the third deal? In this case, we do not periodically lose transactions with the minimum lot, and we will not need to work them out in order to return to the previous...
These actual numbers no longer work because of the change from 400:1 down to 30:1 leverage, it means having a much larger account and it is not possible to double the account in 40 pips.

However back to the question. If we enter with our full lot size and suffer a 10pip stop out rather than a 40 pip win we are risking 1:4. If we lose 4 trades our account is wiped out. Else if we win one our account is doubled. Obviously the risk is not worth it so we scale in our entries as our confidence grows in our trade.

The result is a much lower risk and it is the risk that is important.

You said that only the third trade pays but that isn't correct the previous two are also winning and I use these to cover the cost of future losses.

Since going to 30:1 leverage the situation has changed so we have to manage things a bit different in that we lots more pips to double and conversely risk far less.

Hope this helps.
  • #7,257
  • Aug 27, 2021 9:15am Aug 27, 2021 9:15am
Wow... Look at that from one side to the other.
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  • #7,258
  • Aug 27, 2021 9:32am Aug 27, 2021 9:32am
It really doesn't matter how you scale in as long as you do so. Putting ones eggs in one basket is risky.

You could make multiple entries and more of them as per the chart below but to put ones money all on the first entry is a recipe for ruin.

Once one is all in then the opportunity to hedge presents itself and good money can be made with the hedge for hardly any risk.

So in the chart below the trade would have started with the short at the div top and the hedge would be at the div bottom. Once the stop is safely protecting the long hedge the shorts can all be closed for the profit and as you see the hedge makes a huge profit also.

People should talk more about trade management because that is where the money is.
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  • #7,259
  • Aug 27, 2021 12:38pm Aug 27, 2021 12:38pm
Quoting Nala66
...People should talk more about trade management because that is where the money is.
That's all that interests me. ))
Quoting Nala66
...the hedge makes a huge profit also.
Thus, if I understood correctly, we open the oncoming hedge in the reverse order, starting at a minimum, and then increase the lot in accordance with the oncoming hegery?
  • #7,260
  • Aug 27, 2021 1:38pm Aug 27, 2021 1:38pm
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my bias this morning was bearish, the rrbud took price back to its ema but in a bear div near the 50% level off the possible ab=cd and failing to take out the bull support while price was below the h4 ema
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