The brutal truth of day trading | Page 167 | Forex Factory

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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #3,321
  • Aug 20, 2021 8:26am Aug 20, 2021 8:26am
Quoting PeterCaleb
Day trading (As with any trading) is very similar to thinking ..... * The difference between merely seeking answers to questions and actually learning something .... {image} * How it looks to make assumptions when it's unnecessary .... {image} * What a person needs to remember when faced with their own opinion .... {image} The main problem I have with people is the same problem they have with themself. They assume that an assumption and an opinion are healthy in any and every form. If you find this difficult to accept, just tell yourself a 100 times...
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  • #3,322
  • Aug 20, 2021 8:27am Aug 20, 2021 8:27am
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} It repaints like hell. FIBO is more reliable to be used as markers for us to pay attention to price action
tru tma dont i think but it takes away my focus, Fibo needs confluence otherwise it wont work and once it fits omg its unbelievable. there is no one way to use it, it has alot of variaties in it, can measure any session, any swing where it fits it fits, works for both retracement and extensions like charm.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #3,323
  • Aug 20, 2021 8:39am Aug 20, 2021 8:39am
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  • #3,324
  • Aug 20, 2021 9:10am Aug 20, 2021 9:10am
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} It repaints like hell. FIBO is more reliable to be used as markers for us to pay attention to price action
another entry on fib aligned to OB
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #3,325
  • Aug 20, 2021 9:26am Aug 20, 2021 9:26am
Quoting Winston Reed
{image}
Amen!!
  • #3,326
  • Aug 20, 2021 1:51pm Aug 20, 2021 1:51pm
hey brutalists! question from a newbie: what he is doing here? Why he withdraw on profit and deposit on loose? So he keeps the constant balance before any entry. What benefit of that?

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Is that somehow related to myfxbook how calculate "Gain" ? Is this some kind of manipulation/hack with ratings?

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  • #3,327
  • Edited 5:37pm Aug 20, 2021 4:47pm | Edited 5:37pm
What does the 95% have in common?
They daytrade, it's that simple.

NB: Check the poll
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #3,328
  • Aug 20, 2021 5:00pm Aug 20, 2021 5:00pm
Quoting remonpilip
What does the 95% have in common? They daytrade, it's that simple.
Thats sorted then , tell the forex retail trader world not to day trade and then we can have 100% winners
  • #3,329
  • Aug 20, 2021 5:08pm Aug 20, 2021 5:08pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Wags For me its about the relationship between volume / delta and expansion. Is this additional volume from big players been used to accumulate one sided delta within a order block / grind or are they releasing one sided delta to create a large bearish or bullish trend. Lets look last night at two different situations in EURUSD and GBPUSD. EURUSD was producing positive delta for me which means a average bullish delta candle was correctly producing a bullish trend. Therefore its easy to trade with just a Cumulative delta bar chart and...
Hi Rick

Thanks for the rundown which i get it, but im a little confused by this line below

"Was producing negative delta as the bullish delta"

Wags
  • #3,330
  • Aug 20, 2021 5:14pm Aug 20, 2021 5:14pm
Quoting remonpilip
What does the 95% have in common? They daytrade, it's that simple.
Yeah most of the retails are daytraders and scalpers as we can see in the poll. They make up the vast majority. There's one thing i want remind though when you add all the voters in this poll it makes 124% rather than 100%
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #3,331
  • Aug 20, 2021 5:34pm Aug 20, 2021 5:34pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Yeah most of the retails are daytraders and scalpers as we can see in the poll. They make up the vast majority. There's one thing i want remind though when you add all the voters in this poll it makes 124% rather than 100%
The exact reason why i made that poll was to make a quick survey whilst the thread is still hot.

And that's the proof ya need to make THE CONCLUSION on what I was rambling about in the beginning of this thread.

But hey, if you don't believe in statistics and still reject THE TRUTH, end of discussion.

And yeah for some reason it sums up to over 100%
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #3,332
  • Aug 20, 2021 5:50pm Aug 20, 2021 5:50pm
Quoting remonpilip
{quote} The exact reason why i made that poll was to make a quick survey whilst the thread is still hot. And that's the proof ya need to make THE CONCLUSION on what I was rambling about in the beginning of this thread. But hey, if you don't believe in statistics and still reject THE TRUTH, end of discussion. And yeah for some reason it sums up to over 100%
I am not saying it's impossible but i think it's harder and less possible to make money by daytrading and scalping. Longer term trading (swing, position) is more reliable and less risky. The truth is though whether you teach people long or short term trading, either way most of them will fail and won't be profitable. May be teaching them longer term trading decrease the losing rates from 95% to 85% but it won't change the fact that most people will suck at trading. There will always be that 85%
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #3,333
  • Aug 20, 2021 7:49pm Aug 20, 2021 7:49pm
Quoting remonpilip
{quote} The exact reason why i made that poll was to make a quick survey whilst the thread is still hot. And that's the proof ya need to make THE CONCLUSION on what I was rambling about in the beginning of this thread. But hey, if you don't believe in statistics and still reject THE TRUTH, end of discussion. And yeah for some reason it sums up to over 100%
Please get the facts right.

25% of retail traders are profitable and the mix between day traders (hard to define) and swing traders etc. is about 50%

70% of trainee doctors fail to pass their exams or quit in their first year, does that mean there are no doctors working day shifts?
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #3,334
  • Aug 20, 2021 8:08pm Aug 20, 2021 8:08pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Please get the facts right. 25% of retail traders are profitable and the mix between day traders (hard to define) and swing traders etc. is about 50% 70% of trainee doctors fail to pass their exams or quit in their first year, does that mean there are no doctors working day shifts?
Are those 25% real market traders or forex factory traders???
  • #3,335
  • Edited 9:01pm Aug 20, 2021 8:10pm | Edited 9:01pm
Quoting Wags
{quote} Hi Rick Thanks for the rundown which i get it, but im a little confused by this line below "Was producing negative delta as the bullish delta" Wags
Hi Wags

This is just my opinion.

When Buyers enter the market, we get two results.

1.. Positive delta if the buyers volume produces bullish delta bars with a bullish trend.
2.. Negative delta if the buyers volume produces a bullish delta bars but a bearish trend.

Therefore Buyers and Sellers don't decide trend, its the big players liquidity (limit orders that are either real or fake) that's accept or reject price directional movement to suit their objectives. On Thursday London session, EURUSD was positive delta and the big players were just absorbing orders, GBPUSD was mainly negative delta so the big players were not happy with the market orders coming through so blocked direction of the move as it wasn't meeting their objectives.

The old story, work out which way the bulk of big players delta liquidity is and trade against them till exhaustion (Trade with positive Delta)

The chart below is positive delta from EURUSD last night. I took a handful of trades around this area because it going long offered me a very high likelihood the direction was moving bullish with the agreement of big players.


Again if you want to see 40 lot trades for hundreds of pips, you won't see them from me. I take only moderate size trades for just a handful of pips only -
BUT
I do that 30-50 times a day because I need to keep under the radar of liquidity providers.


Notice there is no price on this chart, its irrelevant to me as a liquidity trader.

Cheers Rick
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #3,336
  • Aug 20, 2021 8:41pm Aug 20, 2021 8:41pm
Quoting STrading
{quote} Are those 25% real market traders or forex factory traders???
The facts comes from two brokers I have seen via published documents online.

To be honest, forex factory members are not as easily fooled as some may think, if you want to find real suckers and gamblers, go to Cypto sites and forums.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #3,337
  • Aug 20, 2021 9:37pm Aug 20, 2021 9:37pm
Quoting remonpilip
{quote} The exact reason why i made that poll was to make a quick survey whilst the thread is still hot. And that's the proof ya need to make THE CONCLUSION on what I was rambling about in the beginning of this thread. But hey, if you don't believe in statistics and still reject THE TRUTH, end of discussion. And yeah for some reason it sums up to over 100%
Hi remopilip,

just the same inquiry regarding your assumption of “Day traders perform worse” since the thread started, there is no statistics showing performance of swing traders to be compared.

In one of your older posts, the Brazilian study actually found 50% of day traders had net gain in account size after 1 year. Should we jump to conclusion that day traders makes up most of the winners because many traders day trade and win 50%? No because there is no information of other aspects of trading.

Your conclusion of 95% losers are day traders because a poll shows 95% of traders participated are day traders... what is the logic behind linking these two irrelevant figures into a casual relationship?

Currently, about 20 persons per 200k population suffer from Breast Cancer at least once in their life. As of 2018, roughly 116 per million population are oncologists. These two studies show that the proportion of population having breast cancer and being an oncologist who treat cancers are the roughly same (1 in 10k)

So all oncologists will have breast cancer. Period. (Including male oncologists )

And that's the proof ya need to make THE CONCLUSION
But hey, if you don't believe in statistics and still reject THE TRUTH, end of discussion.

my point is statistics is not used this way, humble opinion from a statistician.
  • #3,338
  • Aug 20, 2021 9:48pm Aug 20, 2021 9:48pm
Quoting STrading
{quote} Are those 25% real market traders or forex factory traders???
First the 25% is real trading ACCOUNTS. How many actual persons is unknown. Although it is fine to assume it is same for number of traders as traders with multiple accounts mag be randomly distributed among winning and losing group

That is another misleading statistics that confuse many fx traders if not read carefully

look at this study
https://www.compareforexbrokers.com/...ng/statistics/

99% of traders lose? Or 71% lose?

what is the 99% fx traders represents, and what is the sentence immediately before this statement? Are these two talking about the same thing or just pulling two irrelevant figures together?

it is fun to read tho


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  • #3,339
  • Aug 20, 2021 9:59pm Aug 20, 2021 9:59pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} 99% of traders lose? Or 71% lose? what is the 99% fx traders represents, and what is the sentence immediately before this statement? Are these two talking about the same thing or just pulling two irrelevant figures together?
99% represents 99% of traders fail to make CONSISTENT profits more than a year (more than 4 continuous quarters)

71% is unclear, because the author did not dive into the specifics of the time-frame these surveys were taken.
But I assume the survey was less than a year, because the latter implies a time-frame “more than 4 continuous quarters” which in other words means: more than a year.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #3,340
  • Aug 20, 2021 10:10pm Aug 20, 2021 10:10pm
Quoting remonpilip
{quote} 99% represents 99% of traders fail to make CONSISTENT profits more than a year (more than 4 continuous quarters) 71% is unclear, because the author did not dive into the specifics of the time-frame these surveys were taken. But I assume the survey was less than a year, because the latter implies a time-frame “more than 4 continuous quarters” which in other words means: more than a year.

4 continuous quarters, meaning net gain in 4 quarters or more and not one red quarter.

say I performed pretty good year, gaining at 4%, 10%, 10% but losing -1% in last quarter.

I have net gain this year (29%)
But I cannot profit for more than 4 continuous quarters (99%)
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