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WTI Crude Oil Trading

  • #9,781
  • Aug 19, 2021 3:52pm Aug 19, 2021 3:52pm
Quoting teddy5550134
Dear Hutch, Succeed with renko installation from your folder, chart looks almost like yours. Today, I was trying to play online and I see that arrow/line colour repaints. I think the candle was closed so it was looking like ready to enter, but later it dissapeared. Do you have change smthg in paramaters of those indicators to avoid this? Thanks in advance!
The Half Trend TT indicator repaints but I like it because it gives early signals of changing trends. Repainting is normally on an opposite color brick when the FxBayMACD is still valid as shown in the pictures below. If you don't want to use this indicator there are other Half Trend indicators that don't repaint but expect to lose a few bricks when opening a trade and another few brick on closing the trade as shown in this thread:

Renko channel + Fast EMA = simple and profitable | Page 19 | Forex Factory
Attached Images
  • #9,782
  • Aug 19, 2021 4:40pm Aug 19, 2021 4:40pm
WTI went down 93¢ or 1% today with an average ATR that produced 11 winning trades, 3 losing trades and 4 break even trades. The chart starts with the first signal of the day. This was by far the most atrocious trading day this year but I was lucky to miss most of it.
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  • #9,783
  • Aug 20, 2021 5:21am Aug 20, 2021 5:21am
Maybe I should change my way of thinking about trading false signals since this one was a good trade that I missed.
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  • #9,784
  • Aug 20, 2021 8:41am Aug 20, 2021 8:41am
Delta emerging in the US has hammered oil prices. India and UK got over Delta pretty quickly but so far it's still raging in the US. I still expect WTI to be trading well above the $55 handle for the rest of the year. OPEC is due to meet again September 1st and while there's been no rumors yet, I expect talk start to emerge about maybe slowing down the pace at which they start to increase oil supply for at least the rest of 2021. That would likely happen if we see some further declines in oil prices next week.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #9,785
  • Aug 20, 2021 1:43pm Aug 20, 2021 1:43pm
$62 being a bit stubborn today. if it doesn't break fully today i'm pretty sure it will next week
  • #9,786
  • Aug 20, 2021 4:23pm Aug 20, 2021 4:23pm
WTI went down $1.83 today with an average ATR that produced 5 winning trades (the best being the false signal of the second arrow), 2 break even trades and 1 losing trade.
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  • #9,787
  • Aug 21, 2021 5:08pm Aug 21, 2021 5:08pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Sorry for the delay in responding but I upload the charts after midnight my time so there isn't much time for replies that require a little thinking I tried to advise you but you not yet have access to personal messages.

To clarify how the system works a trade is open when the next Renko brick is the same color as the one where the arrow is located and the FxBayMACD line is at zero or crossed the zero line. The trade is closed on the next arrow in the opposite direction while the FxBayMACD line is close to zero also but in the...
Ok, let me make sure I've understood everything correctly.

ENTRY under buy conditions:

  1. Blue Brick #1 closes with the arrow pointing up and Blue Brick #2 closes with the FxBayMacD at or crossed the zero line from below, OR...
  2. Blue Brick #1 closes with both the arrow pointing up and the FxBayMacD crossover having happened.

EXIT under buy conditions:

  1. Red Brick #1 closes with the arrow pointing down and Blue Brick #2 closes with the FxBayMacD at or crossed the zero line from above, OR...
  2. Red Brick #1 closes with both the arrow pointing down and the FxBayMacD crossover having happened.

Two options with false signal:

  1. Wait until you get valid signal in opposite direction of your trade and exit (although by then you likely hit your stop loss)
  2. Wait to see if you confirm a valid entry in the desired direction of your trade

Is this right? To be honest I'm more confused and I need to re-read the text included in the system. Because if I follow your rules than the trades on your pictures only correspond to when the arrows appear and not to the boxes where the FXBayMacD made the crossover in order to create a valid entry.

  • #9,788
  • Aug 21, 2021 5:23pm Aug 21, 2021 5:23pm
Quoting Hutch
WTI went down 93¢ or 1% today with an average ATR that produced 11 winning trades, 3 losing trades and 4 break even trades. The chart starts with the first signal of the day. This was by far the most atrocious trading day this year but I was lucky to miss most of it. {image}
I attempted to trade using your system on August 19th and I came across several issues. Trading this system live is an entirely different experience compared to how it is portrayed on the charts looking backwards.

Chart #1 shows what my entry was and the earliest snapshot I took. The trendline between the two vertical white lines was blue, and the drawn-in yellow arrow is what the indicator was showing me. Therefore, I entered in at the close of the second blue box (i.e. right where the green dot was, which signifies the opening of what would be the third box). Unfortunately, this appeared to be a false entry and the only thing saving me was a 3-box stop loss (30 cents, with each box being worth 10 cents of movement).

Chart #2 shows what happened as price carried on. As you can see the next yellow arrow didn't appear until the third blue box in a row (the one right before the most recent red box). So it looks on the charts like I entered while the trend was still going down, even though trading live I followed Hutch's rules.

Chart #3 shows what happens as price continued further on. I sadly closed out the trade by accident but hindsight rewarded me despite breaking the rules of the systems. But I stuck out with the trade despite having a clear signal pointing down after another red box went down (compared to Chart #2). Price eventually went up. Yet if I closed the trade according to the rules I would have only won 2 boxes worth of movement in favor of my buy trade.

Unless there's something I missed with the system, the repainting makes it very difficult to trade live. It's one thing when the ongoing box being formed shows some repainting activity. That's fine. But when I have a valid buy entry get completely erased from the charts 1-2 boxes later by live price action, it gives me great pause with using and testing the system further.

Hutch, what am I missing or failing to understand here?
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  • #9,789
  • Aug 22, 2021 3:25pm Aug 22, 2021 3:25pm
the long term sell about to start
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  • #9,790
  • Aug 22, 2021 3:50pm Aug 22, 2021 3:50pm
Quoting TransparentT
{quote} Ok, let me make sure I've understood everything correctly. ENTRY under buy conditions: Blue Brick #1 closes with the arrow pointing up and Blue Brick #2 closes with the FxBayMacD at or crossed the zero line from below, OR... Blue Brick #1 closes with both the arrow pointing up and the FxBayMacD crossover having happened. EXIT under buy conditions: Red Brick #1 closes with the arrow pointing down and Blue Brick #2 closes with the FxBayMacD at or crossed the zero line from above, OR... Red Brick #1 closes with both the arrow pointing down...
From your text with changes in bold:

ENTRY under buy conditions:

Blue Brick #1 closes with the arrow pointing up and Blue Brick #2 OPENS with the FxBayMacD at or crossed the zero line from below.
Waiting until the Blue Brick #2 closes normally results in a lost Brick of profit.

EXIT under buy conditions:

Red Brick #1 closes with the arrow pointing down and the FxBayMacD at or crossed the zero line from above.
There is no need to wait for red brick #2 to close if the FxBayMacD is at or crossed the zero line from above at the beginning of the brick. Sometimes you will get an arrow that will disappear because the FxBayMacD has only slightly crossed the zero line from above and quickly reversed on the same candle.

I checked Friday's chart and in a valid trade the brick after the arrow always crossed the FxBayMacD zero line or is very close to it. I always say that our eyes are the best indicators because you normally see the trend direction of the FxBayMacD.

Your understanding of false signal entries is correct but it's best to close an ongoing trade on the the brick after the false signal to avoid further losses.
  • #9,791
  • Aug 22, 2021 9:26pm Aug 22, 2021 9:26pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} From your text with changes in bold: ENTRY under buy conditions: Blue Brick #1 closes with the arrow pointing up and Blue Brick #2 OPENS with the FxBayMacD at or crossed the zero line from below. Waiting until the Blue Brick #2 closes normally results in a lost Brick of profit. EXIT under buy conditions: Red Brick #1 closes with the arrow pointing down and the FxBayMacD at or crossed the zero line from above. There is no need to wait for red brick #2 to close if the FxBayMacD is at or crossed the zero line from above at the beginning of...
So what happens when Blue Brick #2 doesn't open with the MacD at or crossed the zero line before? Do I wait for it to close before I place the trade at the open of Blue Brick #3?

Likewise with exiting, if Red Brick #1 doesn't have the FxBayMacD at the crossover point, do I wait until Red Brick #2 (or #3) where the MacD crosses below zero from above before exiting?

I'm guessing the exiting of an ongoing trade on the brick after the false signal is a cover-your-ass option: Better to take on the 20-cent loss and wait for a new entry in the same/opposite direction to make money than take on an even greater loss.

Do I have things understood correctly now with regard to entry and exit rules?
  • #9,792
  • Aug 23, 2021 9:56am Aug 23, 2021 9:56am
Quoting Kwame Freder
expecting a bounce $61-$62 region and if that breaks then $57-$58 region
Wow it touched around $61.74 at the open and the rocket launched. very sneaky of them
  • #9,793
  • Aug 23, 2021 9:57am Aug 23, 2021 9:57am
Quoting Kwame Freder
{quote} Wow it touched around $61.74 at the open and the rocket launched. very sneaky of them
CL futures has already made back Thursday and Friday's losses and looks like it's headed higher.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SNAG-0165.png Size: 23 KB
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #9,794
  • Aug 23, 2021 3:26pm Aug 23, 2021 3:26pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} CL futures has already made back Thursday and Friday's losses and looks like it's headed higher. {image}
WTI has run up into a bit of resistance just under $66. key area in determining whether the larger bearish trend will resume or if the current rally will continue.
  • #9,795
  • Aug 23, 2021 3:47pm Aug 23, 2021 3:47pm
Quoting TransparentT
{quote} I attempted to trade using your system on August 19th and I came across several issues. Trading this system live is an entirely different experience compared to how it is portrayed on the charts looking backwards. Chart #1 shows what my entry was and the earliest snapshot I took. The trendline between the two vertical white lines was blue, and the drawn-in yellow arrow is what the indicator was showing me. Therefore, I entered in at the close of the second blue box (i.e. right where the green dot was, which signifies the opening of what...
You're not missing anything. Looking at the 3 charts all show a flat market and it's very difficult to trade. This system is very sensitive to wicks and using wicks will give you a different result than not using wicks. Also, no indicator is perfect (missing signal) and no system is perfect. If they were brokers would be out of business. Please try not using wicks. The second and third pictures have missing signals. Maybe this system is not for you. There are plenty of Renko systems in FF but you might try the one of Dutchy Daxy (Renko with Ichimoku cloud) in this thread:

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13678883
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  • #9,796
  • Aug 23, 2021 4:24pm Aug 23, 2021 4:24pm
WTI went up $3.66 today with an extremely high ATR that produced 6 winning trades, 2 break even trades and 1 losing trade. The last signal being false is ignored. By the way I think this this is the biggest gain and biggest ATR of the year.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,797
  • Aug 23, 2021 6:08pm Aug 23, 2021 6:08pm
Quoting Hutch
WTI went up $3.66 today with an extremely high ATR that produced 6 winning trades, 2 break even trades and 1 losing trade. The last signal being false is ignored. By the way I think this this is the biggest gain and biggest ATR of the year. {image}

Yes itwas, and I didn't have the kahoonas to enter on the signal! :-(
  • #9,798
  • Aug 24, 2021 8:46am Aug 24, 2021 8:46am
Quoting Kwame Freder
{quote} WTI has run up into a bit of resistance just under $66. key area in determining whether the larger bearish trend will resume or if the current rally will continue.
It looks like it's a little bit of a risk environment with the usd selling and crude heading higher. Still early in the US sessions though.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #9,799
  • Aug 24, 2021 8:54am Aug 24, 2021 8:54am
looking like bulls are in the drivers seat, $70 could be on the radar
  • #9,800
  • Aug 24, 2021 9:31am Aug 24, 2021 9:31am
Crude making back all of last week's losses. Testing last week's highs.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
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