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  • #3,161
  • Aug 14, 2021 4:59am Aug 14, 2021 4:59am
Quoting ficibald
{quote} thanks for sharing,but there is problem with DeltaRiver, my antivirus say that in files is virus,I doubt that its safe to download it,seems good software but I am afraid to download it edit: now I installed ATAS its working great,they offer 14 days free trial
Hello
You can install DeltaRriver.
You had to deactivate the antivirus programme.
I have been using DeltaRiver for over 1 year and it is free.
Alternatively 30 days demo AMP.



https://demo.ampfutures.com/quantower-free
  • #3,162
  • Aug 14, 2021 5:04am Aug 14, 2021 5:04am
Have a nice weekend everyone
best wishes to the demo traders,they know everything
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  • #3,163
  • Aug 14, 2021 5:18am Aug 14, 2021 5:18am
Quoting kette
Have a nice weekend everyone best wishes to the demo traders,they know everything {image}
I trade both. I show demo TE. I don't show live TE.
  • #3,164
  • Aug 14, 2021 5:33am Aug 14, 2021 5:33am
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} Dear Gepards, Generally, I do not intend to discuss anything, I expressed my concerns and justified them. If I am wrong, sorry is my fault, but this is how I perceive your posts. I'm not any guru, I don't even call myself a trader, I'm learning, I'm just trying to think logically. I don't often write on FF because I don't have anything to write about. Here on FF 90% of the texts are stupid verbal scuffles in which I do not want to participate anymore. I even compiled a list, a long list of Hedge Funds that have gone bankrupt, an even longer...
tnx BlackNapkins for pointing out on insurance companies bankruptcies. Made some quick google...

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Here are some list with bad insurance companies cases (insolvance/bankruptcies etc) - counted 80 cases since 1991. At this moment we have 5954 insurance compaies in USA.. seems bankrupcies % is not so big.. about 1.3%.

Here are huge insurance companies bankruptcies:

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What is very interesting... why those huge went to bankruptcies...

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"bad investments"... corruption. TOP managers get corrupted and purchased stupid companies/stocks. Same story as with General Electric.

the reason here is not a business model with insurance policies.. that works fine. generates a lot money. statistics for insurance companies work fine. that's math.

for me seems everywhere is corruption. It looks like "success" but actually is corruption. All big deals might be coruptive. Think Soros the same. He had some insider info...

Regarding hedge funds even no question... they take for example 100 clients. 50% put on short and 50% put on long. Then half of clients are happy (and reference new clients), other half get info "you know investing is risky and not allways can win".
  • #3,165
  • Aug 14, 2021 5:33am Aug 14, 2021 5:33am
i find demo trading very good, it helps a lot in the beginning.
  • #3,166
  • Aug 14, 2021 5:35am Aug 14, 2021 5:35am
Quoting tiborf71
i find demo trading very good, it helps a lot in the beginning.
Thank goodness for demo. It's a great way to forward test new strategies without risk. I'll be starting 4 new demos this week.
  • #3,167
  • Aug 14, 2021 5:36am Aug 14, 2021 5:36am
Quoting ohyeah
{quote} I trade both. I show demo TE. I don't show live TE.

I let my fun away.
Demo trading is ok, those who trade for real know best.
Before someone paints a chart and tells what is going on, he should show a live trade, which I showed here last week in USDJPY.
  • #3,168
  • Aug 14, 2021 5:42am Aug 14, 2021 5:42am
Quoting ohyeah
{quote} Thank goodness for demo. It's a great way to forward test new strategies without risk. I'll be starting 4 new demos this week.
excellent for testing.
  • #3,169
  • Aug 14, 2021 5:45am Aug 14, 2021 5:45am
Quoting gepards
{quote} tnx BlackNapkins for pointing out on insurance companies bankruptcies. .
few more ...

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  • #3,170
  • Aug 14, 2021 5:54am Aug 14, 2021 5:54am
Quoting ohyeah
{quote} I trade both. I show demo TE. I don't show live TE.
I think that simulation is more productive than demo.

I use this system on weekends when I want to review something and I can practice hundreds of trades in little time.

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However, if one does not have a simulation system, then demo is ok but slow imo.
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  • #3,171
  • Aug 14, 2021 6:02am Aug 14, 2021 6:02am
Quoting scherzi
{quote} Another blocked account... Please, keep your testosterone for yourself, I am not going to discuss these stupid things here.
  • #3,172
  • Aug 14, 2021 6:03am Aug 14, 2021 6:03am
Quoting ohyeah
{quote} I trade both. I show demo TE. I don't show live TE.
Alternatively, you can show it like this.
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  • #3,173
  • Aug 14, 2021 6:34am Aug 14, 2021 6:34am
Someone sent me a pm with a query about confluence etc.

I won't say who due to privacy but it is a very good area to comprehend clearly.

Despite all the who-ha online etc about this, it's actually a really fun area to play with. Well I find it so anyway.

My trainer years ago explained it as so =

Say you are driving down the highway and you want to take the next off ramp. What is the process you would use to exit safely and successfully?

Look around. See what is happening around you. Note the path you want/need to take. Observe the possible alternative options if needed.

Most new traders, even some veterans I've seen around, only use the "this and this and that" approach. And while this can work I learned a different approach. Not saying it's "better" but it does have deeper strength at times.

The basics of it =

Confluence is the process of removing coincidence from an observed scenario. Each situation has its own 'optimal circumstantial peak'. And this is possibly where people think using a lot of indicators will help/solve the problem. But not if you don't factor in the expectation peak properly. Think of this as the idea of using 10 different momentum indications for price movement that only lasts say max 15 mins. The assumption here is "more is better". But the peak factor is very different when you introduce outside influences. Eg - using 10 may only substantiate approx 60% probability of a profitable return. But what if we introduced something from a different category of evaluation?

I've tried to help people see that fragmenting your approach to understand what you're seeing, is backwards thinking. Admittedly, many think "near enough is good enough". But confluence is steadily multiplied or amplified when you inject ALL the categories. Yes this is not new for some, great. But over the years I have seen many lose all their money because they 'trade for today' but do not plan for tomorrow.

Confluence multipliers are free and easy to apply. Yes you can use HTF's or Interest rate data, or you can use other data but the mistake is not in the "tool" of choice but in understanding the amplification that naturally occurs, without ANY help from the trader or from their manipulations and calculations. It was explained to me years ago as looking down on a round table where you have the option to cover all your bases with real world information and then to look on the chart to understand that trade. The multiplier is in the co-operation of these things not in any one as a standalone tool. While many will simply apply a set/calculated % of use, performance or weight to each confluence point or tool, you can use the multiple factor. So instead of adding up all %'s you can weigh and multiply the weights.

Eg -

Direction. Speed/momentum. Pro or counter major figures for commerce (Interest Rate Diffs, Production etc). Level of interest from Transitional markets (Eg - Energy/Other Commodities/Consumer). Sentiment from medium or large caps.

Here you will assign a % according to how you see each line item listed above.

Eg -

50%, 20%, 15%, 15%, 40%.

The idea here is it has nothing to do with adding up to 100%, but focuses on each category's "performance input" as you see it or have determined from your own research.

Although day traders keep thinking/believing that 'big picture' doesn't affect small quick movements, you need to understand the big picture is processing the "little picture". Here is where scalpers and trend traders are basically at a loss with each side of their proposed argument. For instance just because you are sending an order to market that will be cashed out in say 5-10mins, at 10K lot size, it has no bearing on what type of trading is going on, on the other side that fills your order. You = scalper. Them = swing trader or longer time horizon.

100% does not and has never meant "perfect".

The multiplier factor is a natural phenomenon in the financial world. Although it doesn't guarantee anything as some will probably want to argue for or against here, I tend to use it more as "insurance". I suppose in the same way as "trade with the trend" but with a tad more sophistication and emphasis on being real about my trading instead of chasing things around the screen.

The reason why the multiplier can be stronger (than the usual way) is in its basis of real life and not in recycling data that has already been accounted for in some other part of the process. I admit most people don't believe some of the things I have said. Fair enough. But reality is something different to YOUR version of what you think/believe exists and permeates these markets everyday.

Then there's the time factor. But that's a whole different factor.

I hope that helps.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #3,174
  • Aug 14, 2021 6:51am Aug 14, 2021 6:51am
OK.
but why it should be written in capital letters.
lol.
  • #3,175
  • Aug 14, 2021 7:23am Aug 14, 2021 7:23am
Quoting BWilliam
100% ROI. I assume annual returns on investment. Which newbie has achieved that milestone ? ZERO. Not even the pros.
100% ROI yearly is not so imposible... maybe...

Just thinking regarding webinar and NQ100 - mentioned in this my post...

maybe even buy the dips is too complicated... what could be more simple? Answer = BUY. Just one activity. No closing trades. Why complicate?

Entry rules for NQ100? hmmm.. no rules... for example BUY at NY open every 6 working days... here are backtest results (made EA to see how that idea would work out).

Results from 2018. Start with 1000 usd. Leverage 1:100. Deal volume 0.01. This result is without scaling..


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what volumes? what charts? what all this hype of secrets and gurus etc... the truth might be very very simple... just buy entire haystack and don't search for holly needle

in 3 years from 1000 usd made 11000 usd profits. even without compounding. Just buy 0.01 lots NQ100 with leverage 1:100.
  • #3,176
  • Aug 14, 2021 7:29am Aug 14, 2021 7:29am
noticed here some nice nickname... do you see that?

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  • #3,177
  • Aug 14, 2021 7:40am Aug 14, 2021 7:40am
Quoting gepards
noticed here some nice nickname... do you see that? {image}
  • #3,178
  • Aug 14, 2021 7:43am Aug 14, 2021 7:43am
Quoting gepards
Just buy 0.01 lots NQ100 with leverage 1:100.
what dd I can survive with leverage 1:10 if I for example open BUY 0.01 lots with 1000 usd on account in max bad time - going down and down after that... ? how big dd I wont be stop out if stop out is on 50% ?

just thinking of this idea that I can put X usd lets say every months as on saving account for example in some FCA regulated broker... so money protected.
  • #3,179
  • Aug 14, 2021 7:46am Aug 14, 2021 7:46am
Quoting PeterCaleb
I admit most people don't believe some of the things I have said. Fair enough. But reality is something different to YOUR version of what you think/believe exists and permeates these markets everyday. Then there's the time factor. But that's a whole different factor. I hope that helps. Peter
Of course Pete Lol, everyone else who doesn't agree with you or holds a different opinion ..... Just has an opinion. Yours is always the fact, the reality.

Personally, i think the lesser the factors of confluence one considers the better. In my experience, a need for too many confluence parameters can cause analysis paralysis or unnecessary hesitation. After all, no two moments in the markets are exactly the same.
The sad truth is that no matter how many confluencing factors one looks for, there will always be losses and while looking out for many confluences may help prevent some losses, it will definitely rob you of some or many wins. Finding the balance is the challenge.
If using a strategy for example, i allow myself lose only $100 per loss trade and win at least $200 per win and a success rate of 50%, and i decide to introduce the use of Volume analysis to my confluence arsenal. Fortunately, this new addition helps me cut down my losses from 6 to 3..... But also cuts down my Wins from 10 to 4 (due to potential winning trades missed or not taken because the new confluence factor disqualified them).
In a situation such as this where the said strategy had a clear positive expectancy, isn't it better to throw the Volume analysis filter in the bin and accept those extra 3 losses for a chance to also gain the missed potential winning opportunities?

I believe that is the most crucial phase of developing or improving a trading strategy. Finding the balance is the challenge.

P.S Those are just random numbers, no maths done.
  • #3,180
  • Aug 14, 2021 9:37am Aug 14, 2021 9:37am
Quoting Koop
{quote} Of course Pete Lol, everyone else who doesn't agree with you or holds a different opinion ..... Just has an opinion. Yours is always the fact, the reality. Personally, i think the lesser the factors of confluence one considers the better. In my experience, a need for too many confluence parameters can cause analysis paralysis or unnecessary hesitation. After all, no two moments in the markets are exactly the same. The sad truth is that no matter how many confluencing factors one looks for, there will always be losses and while looking out...


Koop,

A lot of the time I simply have more experience and or competency, that's all. You'd be surprised what can happen when that opinion has to step aside for something more real.

I sense you are confusing consistent evaluation with execution. As in - 'what is setup ongoing' vs 'in the moment of sending an order to market'. Yes those things you are mentioning are relevant and important, however, it's the same internal blockage I have seen in many many people.

Without trying to be antagonistic here, in that moment of execution (referring to manual trading here) there need not be any part of evaluation still in contention. Whether a 'scalp' or a 'trend trade' the issue is the same, fundamentally. I have seen it far too often where a trader has not done their homework and speculates instead of stepping away to consider the lackings in their approach.

Confluence really should never be done "on the fly". Not even when placing lengthy time horizon positions. Being organized is the key. Knowing what is static or generic and is therefore concrete. These are your evergreens. Also, I see where you're coming from here. When thinking about cutting out losers and maybe also end up cutting out winners, this is a "True/False Readout" approach and I DO appreciate that some work with EA's or an EA style of approach here. All I will say is - whenever people try to avoid learning how to manually trade before doing anything else, their work and efforts suffer. It always happens and it should. So we can learn where we're going wrong. So for me, I'm not trying to avoid losses or trouble, I'm asserting a position that is not encouraged by many because it gets me better results. Through and through. You cannot learn about wet/dry trades just by utilizing a true-false approach. One is blindly systematic and the other less so.

If you are making improvements then good.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
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