The brutal truth of day trading | Page 155 | Forex Factory

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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #3,081
  • Aug 13, 2021 12:18am Aug 13, 2021 12:18am
Quoting BWilliam
ROI% claims that's bandied about on FF is grossly flawed. That figure is totally meaningless. There's so many more required parameters behind that sacred number before it bears any valid meaning. Have you guys figure it out yet?
Maybe you can enlighten us the parameters you consider to make the return% more meaningful as you claimed?
  • #3,082
  • Aug 13, 2021 12:26am Aug 13, 2021 12:26am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} Maybe you can enlighten us the parameters you consider to make the return% more meaningful as you claimed?
No claims from me, never made one on FF.

If anyone is so hell bent to make claims on FF, then be prepared to include ALL the money parameters to give context to his sacred ROI% claim. Basic finance.

What's funny is that such members don't even know he has opened himself to obligation to provide complete personal financial info for internet strangers to validate his claim.

Quoting ohyeah
{quote} Why is it the golden rule? Give a good reason and I'll delete my posts.
The reason written above.
Know what you trade
  • #3,083
  • Aug 13, 2021 12:40am Aug 13, 2021 12:40am
Quoting ohyeah
{quote} Okay well, I wasn't claiming anything in terms of being a show off. I was just saying, I'm not a newbie.
There's a lot more benefit to assume the role of a newbie and loser on forum. The inverse gain us nothing. Perhaps there's ulterior motive. Think about that.
Know what you trade
  • #3,084
  • Aug 13, 2021 12:42am Aug 13, 2021 12:42am
Quoting joyny
{quote} And what is your smart plan for all your trading when USD will collapse and EUR stop existing? Or electricity stop existing because of abnormal sun activities? Or aliens come and make us all slaves? When Roman empire ruined there were some chaos in some parts of it and humans for several centuries lost a lot knowledge and skills what was achieved... World without internet is quite possible. Then what? How you will trade then? Therefore for all future posible armagedons there exists 1 phrase printed on us dollars bills... and nothing else...
Hey joyny what do you mean? Why aren't you referring to the content on probability and just joking around?
The text concerned the marginalization of the importance of the system's Hit rate in trading. It was about probability. And you tell some fairy tales. I have given examples of underestimating the importance of things that could be taken into account that seemed improbable and yet happened in our lifetime. What I wrote was not a criticism of anyone, it was just a point of underestimating the hit rate which I discussed. You attacked me, please refer to the main content of my message. Please do not drag me into the sandbox during the discussion.
  • #3,085
  • Aug 13, 2021 12:47am Aug 13, 2021 12:47am
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} Hey joyny what do you mean? Why aren't you referring to the content on probability and just joking around? The text concerned the marginalization of the importance of the system's Hit rate in trading. It was about probability. And you tell some fairy tales. I have given examples of underestimating the importance of things that could be taken into account that seemed improbable and yet happened in our lifetime. What I wrote was not a criticism of anyone, it was just a point of underestimating the hit rate which I discussed. You attacked me,...
Hi BN, you made a good point in the discussion. Retail trading forum is like the wild wild west. Showing off the big dick. You brought up this point about risk of ruin. Nobody interested to discuss how to structure their capital exposure allocated to Forex trading based on their networth. All the bs talk is about win rate, pips gain and ROI - "I am the greatest."
Know what you trade
  • #3,086
  • Aug 13, 2021 1:36am Aug 13, 2021 1:36am
Quoting ohyeah
{quote} To keep it unbiased, I talk in terms of pips. To me, the first milestone is to bring a demo account to 100%. The second is to bring a live account to 100%. At that point, I'd say it's good enough, they've made it, and are a "profitable trader."
I think that it is not only either a matter of absoluter or relative pips or money in terms of a static picture.

One needs certain consistency and repetition.

The key is when one finds a repetitive event in markets, when you can visualize it clearly and spot the small details that validate that (or those) event (or events); then you have the first piece.

The second piece is to develop a professional attitude and wait for it to happen iof gambling each time you see something that could be profitable in your opinion.

And after the above, money may come if you find the right conditions for it.

In particular, I find exahusting sometimes waiting for something to happen and sometimes one enters trades after spotting something interesting, just to realize the second after that some important detail was missed. Or maybe you have been waiting for hours and you click too early and, when this happens, drawdowns are more painful than when you enter at the right time, for instance, and the risk of just cutting your loses when you should be trusting your setup comes in. I missed yesterday very good trades just for waiting at the right time that never was given by price. That hurts, but it is part of the game and one needs to wait and miss good trades and accept that not every time or every day the best setups will be offered.

To mitigate all that I personally have always something I can partially spend my time while I am waiting, such as watching tv series, writting or creating something and so on. But the ultimate step should be always automating when possible.
  • #3,087
  • Aug 13, 2021 1:57am Aug 13, 2021 1:57am
Quoting scherzi
{quote} I think that it is not only either a matter of absoluter or relative pips or money in terms of a static picture. One needs certain consistency and repetition. The key is when one finds a repetitive event in markets, when you can visualize it clearly and spot the small details that validate that (or those) event (or events); then you have the first piece. The second piece is to develop a professional attitude and wait for it to happen iof gambling each time you see something that could be profitable in your opinion. And after the above, money...
Hey scherzi, here's a suggestion. Get a few like minded traders to trade together in a room. Each one of us is allotted responsibility to scan certain pairs. Wait for the shitty setup to appear then sound the alarm. This is one solution provided every member is on the same page with more or less similar piece. You watch tv series, I watch poker stars videos while trading. Keeps me in a state of mind to jump in to gamble when I find nice set up. There's also live partypoker tv.

Inserted Video
Know what you trade
  • #3,088
  • Aug 13, 2021 2:59am Aug 13, 2021 2:59am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Leverage isn’t important for us, we just trade at a size to achieve a profit result between 0.02 to 0.08 of total equity, or more if we can crack it. ...
Hi Rick,

I like your post. However, this is the part that lost me "...We have now zero sellers at the present spot so price collapses. Here is our chance to jump into the order book and become a seller...". As we have zero sellers now, shouldn't it be our chance to become a buyer ?

David
  • #3,089
  • Edited 4:03am Aug 13, 2021 3:18am | Edited 4:03am
Quoting RickM
On a bullish drive, buyers out number sellers 3 to 1 and we see this in the Sellers imbalance on the order book. Their orders are absorbed by larger aggressive buying orders so price continues to rise....
Rising bullish market.

Quoting RickM
until imbalance is so strong. - all sellers are removed from the chart within reach of spread.

We have now zero sellers at the present spot so price collapses.
Bullish turning point spotted. All living sellers massacred with none in sight. No more sellers to play ball with the bulls.

Quoting RickM
Here is our chance to jump into the order book and become a seller, small in size and we go in unnoticed. Thin liquidity is therefore when either the order books is barren of buyers or sellers at current price. We can entry and sell in that example but the big players can’t because they are too large to take advantage of this situation. Price retraces which of course encourages more sellers to enter onto the market and therefore removing the imbalance. Only small traders can trade order book imbalance, we have a edge and the big players can’t touch...
That's when RickM and his merry band of underweight retail volume scalpers stealthily dive in their 90+% sure win short trade with basket hedging in case there are bulls teleported from some other domain.

There you have it, the flaw in the forex auction market system. Exploit it fast else the market makers mess with it.
Know what you trade
  • #3,090
  • Aug 13, 2021 3:36am Aug 13, 2021 3:36am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hey scherzi, here's a suggestion. Get a few like minded traders to trade together in a room. Each one of us is allotted responsibility to scan certain pairs. Wait for the shitty setup to appear then sound the alarm. This is one solution provided every member is on the same page with more or less similar piece. You watch tv series, I watch poker stars videos while trading. Keeps me in a state of mind to jump in to gamble when I find nice set up. There's also live partypoker tv. https://youtu.be/5Edp0DnTvz0
While working as a software engineer we used to perform peer reviews.I was trying in the past peer trading, but no one showed the consistency for joining the session on a regular basis. People only shared setups after they were already in profit if they did (that was not the case most of the time).

Then one sees 2 or 3 lot sized positions on H4 and realized most of them were playing in demo mode and that all they said was crap.

I think that most people are not obsessive enough to become traders, I don't know. People only hear themselves because are willing to be admired by others.

A complete disaster trying to trade with a team.

See, I lost this short today. It was a bad trade I think. Now I see that price is moving up yet but it is too high to be bought to my taste. I know price usually boundes off prior retracements and that it could be a valid entry. But I think it is better for me to close my terminal for now and wait till Americas will open later.

I have a rule that is not so obvious and I skipped it when I sold it. It was not a really terrible setup, but it missed only one of the several conditions I have defined for my setup.

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That is the terrible truth. I think that even if you know what gives money, it does not guarantee you will be applying it when you must.

Big companies have support teams to help traders with these kind of issues while retail traders must cope alone with it.
  • #3,091
  • Aug 13, 2021 3:45am Aug 13, 2021 3:45am
Quoting scherzi
I was trying in the past peer trading, but 1. no one showed the consistency for joining the session on a regular basis. 2. People only shared setups after they were already in profit. 3. Then one sees 2 or 3 lot sized positions on H4 and realized most of them were playing in demo mode and that all they said was crap.
Those are few reasons why I don't waste time with group trading with bs traders.

Quoting scherzi
I think that even if you know what gives money, it does not guarantee you will be applying it when you must. Big companies have support teams to help traders with these kind of issues while retail traders must cope alone with it.
That's the brutal truth of forex trading. Reducing the opt out or mistakes or missing due to scanning error or wrong scan focus is part of the solution. Somehow as a lone wolf trader we have to cope with all that shit and try find objective answers on our own. One solution at a time. Isn't it strange that there's no transparent discussion about this topics that we real traders face everyday ?

At least now I know there's a scherzi who face the same problems.

How many lone wolf real traders out there who face same problems, hands up pls.
Know what you trade
  • #3,092
  • Aug 13, 2021 3:47am Aug 13, 2021 3:47am
Most of what is told in the public arena is bs.

See these two pairs. Anyone believing correlation matters must be completely paralized.
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GU moving down, EU moving up!!

Financial markets are multidimensional, even time is multidimensional and the charts may become a chaos.

See these pinbars, lol. Jap. candlestick patterns are bs.

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lol

This is what it was really happening. I would love to sell that structure later today if I am given the opportunity when USA comes into play.
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  • #3,093
  • Aug 13, 2021 3:55am Aug 13, 2021 3:55am
Quoting scherzi
Most of what is told in the public arena is bs.
That's the brutal truth.

When the real trader risk real money that hurts only then his eyes open to "see", his brain awaken to "think", and he starts learning to separate the bs from the truth.

Risking real money makes him acquire the skill to spot a forum bullshitter from a real trader.
Know what you trade
  • #3,094
  • Aug 13, 2021 4:16am Aug 13, 2021 4:16am
Quoting scherzi
Most of what is told in the public arena is bs. See these two pairs. Anyone believing correlation matters must be completely paralized. {image} GU moving down, EU moving up!! Financial markets are multidimensional, even time is multidimensional and the charts may become a chaos. See these pinbars, lol. Jap. candlestick patterns are bs. {image} lol This is what it was really happening. I would love to sell that structure later today if I am given the opportunity when USA comes into play. {image}

There are times pairs are correlated or same for negatively correlated pairs on a different TF than another, there is a great indicator which is either pearsons or spearmans which shows this across all symbols and available MT4 TF,s helping to select which is available at the present time, this is where if you are using this as a strategy you can take advantage of a flexible strategy rather than sticking to just a single TF

I think with a pinbar the higher the timeframe and the bigger rejection the bigger impact on the reversal, also i always thought a pinbar could only be veified when it had clearly made an exausted high in an uptrend and vice versa, looking to the left on your charts i would not call those pinbars, but pinbars also come in many shapes and sizes and would need many , many extra timeframes to see them all as actual pinbars
  • #3,095
  • Edited 5:00am Aug 13, 2021 4:40am | Edited 5:00am
Quoting scherzi
Anyone believing correlation matters must be completely paralized.
USD vs GBPUSD made a LL rather a HL
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GBPUSD vs EURUSD - made a HL
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #3,096
  • Aug 13, 2021 4:49am Aug 13, 2021 4:49am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} USD vs GBPUSD made a LL rather a HL {image} USD vs EURUSD - made a HL {image}
This would be an interesting indicator to play with. Could you post it here? Thanks
  • #3,097
  • Aug 13, 2021 4:52am Aug 13, 2021 4:52am
Quoting Wags
{quote} There are times pairs are correlated or same for negatively correlated pairs on a different TF than another, there is a great indicator which is either pearsons or spearmans which shows this across all symbols and available MT4 TF,s helping to select which is available at the present time, this is where if you are using this as a strategy you can take advantage of a flexible strategy rather than sticking to just a single TF I think with a pinbar the higher the timeframe and the bigger rejection the bigger impact on the reversal, also i always...
I was talking about being concise. I mean, focusing on correlation is not enough. Focusing on pinbars is not. "correlation may be useful", "pinbars may be useful". Yeah, I agree, but it is not trading. I gave this concise picture or EU before it actually happened with a chart in m1.

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The pinbar was a bs and the idea of linear regression (an application of correlation) is another bs in markets. That's all. There is not a direct application of pinbars and correlations, that is what I mean.

I also said that sometimes you know what to do but you do not do it. I did not buy this setup, you know why? Because I have a rule that tells me not to do it. That may seem stupid because I lost one trade and I did not take this that would have given me money. Yes, it is what it is. The brutal truth.

A friend of mine was asking me if I was sure that crypto markets will rise by the end of the year. I told him that I have not been buying since May because I thought that cryptos were going to move up. I have been buying because if cryptos move up, I will make money. But I have no idea if cryptos will move up or not. I completely ignore it.

It is not about what we think that may or may not occur, it is about the decision of risking a certain amount of money. It is about losing or winning money.

We are really concerned about our wealth, it is difficult to talk about theories and vague ideas when you are within such emotional state and mindset. I am not sure if I am being able to explain what I try, to be honest.
  • #3,098
  • Aug 13, 2021 4:54am Aug 13, 2021 4:54am
Quoting ohyeah
{quote} This would be an interesting indicator to play with. Could you post it here? Thanks
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 OverLayChart_bySB_14AB.ex4   43 KB | 404 downloads
"Exchange of hands"
  • #3,099
  • Aug 13, 2021 4:57am Aug 13, 2021 4:57am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} {file}
Any chance you have the source code? *.mq4
  • #3,100
  • Aug 13, 2021 5:08am Aug 13, 2021 5:08am
Quoting scherzi
{quote} I was talking about being concise. I mean, focusing on correlation is not enough. Focusing on pinbars is not. "correlation may be useful", "pinbars may be useful". Yeah, I agree, but it is not trading. I gave this concise picture or EU before it actually happened with a chart in m1. {image} The pinbar was a bs and the idea of linear regression (an application of correlation) is another bs in markets. That's all. There is not a direct application of pinbars and correlations, that is what I mean. I also said that sometimes you know what to...
bet small the stress and emotional side will relief in case of missing a setup or losing a trade at least works for me

cheers
Uncertainty of the market must be embraced and accepted.
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