The brutal truth of day trading | Page 135 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The truth about trading 164 replies

Truth about trading 9 replies

Truth about online trading...Is this us also? 5 replies

Pulos Bill - The Truth About Fibonacci Trading (Attached) 4 replies

The Bonehead Trader..please be brutal!! 47 replies

Attachments: The brutal truth of day trading
Exit Attachments

The brutal truth of day trading

  • #2,681
  • Jul 31, 2021 2:01pm Jul 31, 2021 2:01pm
Quoting bfx17
{quote} The correct wording would be "demo accounts", so plural. But in all fairness, I have never ever read anyone saying or even implying that Aussi sells or intends to sell anything. While about you I am not so sure...
no need to sell here anything. platforms where i publish my trades have good tools for investors to filter out appropriate investment opportunities by various criteria. investors make portfolios of different kinds of signals - make proportions according to rules how portfolios are made. they make an analysis of past performance, see audited results see already pre-calculated n factors provided by platforms. nobody needs any text from me to make decisions. investors need only numbers.

no forum posts can lead to an investor's decision. so here I just communicate, get ideas for my new EAs, do training, learning, have fun with trolls etc
  • #2,682
  • Jul 31, 2021 3:33pm Jul 31, 2021 3:33pm
Quoting tommydoginti
like differentiating a cup-and-handle from a simple 3-leg swing, try code an EA that can do that
This is the main mistake of coders. They are trying to create bot to trade like human. For example to detect useless 3-leg swing on 4h timeframe. Algo is algo. It must do only what human cant. It must not trade on higher TFs, draw lines and make other useless electricity spendings. It must act fast. 500 trades daily with 0.005% profit each. Can human trade like that? Nope. Second example: on crypto exchanges in most cases there are no hedge account, they are all netting. Can you manually trade on 2 accounts simulating hedge account behavior? Nope. But bot can. Easy.
So short-term trading aka scalping can be profitable and long-term can be too. It's all about preferences.
Observer effect
  • #2,683
  • Edited 3:46pm Jul 31, 2021 3:36pm | Edited 3:46pm
Quoting tommydoginti
I believe market is chaotic but not random (these two words have very different meanings to unpredictability).
Good point! Chaotic process depends on initial state/params. Random not. Chaotic processes with similar initial state/params create similar results. Random not.

Chaotic process is predictable. Random not. You are right that market is chaotic. When you trade with fundamentals you trade chaotic process. When trade with techical you trade random process because No point on chart can guarantee where will be next point. But fundamentals can predict... Lotery is random process. When use technical it is the same as lotery. Take any indicator or draw any line... nothing can predict future. May continue oversold or retrace. Fluctuate around 50%.. Some times 51% then you win if 1:1 rr. When 49% then you lose. Therefore indicators "Some times works and then stop working". Technical=gambling.

Just thinking... What you think?
  • #2,684
  • Jul 31, 2021 6:50pm Jul 31, 2021 6:50pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} This is the main mistake of coders. They are trying to create bot to trade like human. For example to detect useless 3-leg swing on 4h timeframe. Algo is algo. It must do only what human cant. It must not trade on higher TFs, draw lines and make other useless electricity spendings. It must act fast. 500 trades daily with 0.005% profit each. Can human trade like that? Nope. Second example: on crypto exchanges in most cases there are no hedge account, they are all netting. Can you manually trade on 2 accounts simulating hedge account behavior?...
In chess we used to think that computer chess programs will never be able to play like humans because we can think irrationally at times until AI came along (back in the days I used to choose variations that were not logical to the computer just to beat it and yes most of the time I was successful by taking it out of the library). If you can add AI to the bot - like what some banks might be doing - it can trade like a human on top of what we think as limitations in computer programming. Just play against Fritz 17 (chess program) and choose handicap and see if you can beat it easily.

So an algo must be able to do what humans can and can't do (it can't discard the possible irrational behaviour of humans). 1 + 1 = 2 is not always true in trading.
  • #2,685
  • Edited 8:58pm Jul 31, 2021 7:27pm | Edited 8:58pm
Quoting Pumi
{quote} In chess we used to think that computer chess programs will never be able to play like humans because we can think irrationally at times until AI came along (back in the days I used to choose variations that were not logical to the computer just to beat it and yes most of the time I was successful by taking it out of the library). If you can add AI to the bot - like what some banks might be doing - it can trade like a human on top of what we think as limitations in computer programming. Just play against Fritz 17 (chess program) and choose...
Hi Pumi

Bots already are in control of the market and if you sat with me one night viewing a Futures chart, you can see them trade most nights.

I think it’s important to know they only engage the market to trade direction of the market only and they normally perform there duties by creating continuous order blocks using large volumes to absorb movement.

The one on EURUSD at about 1.1883 absorbed six different bearish moves before price was reversed. The task the bot performs is to restock the order instantly the moment the order is eroded, it that case it started at 160 units and was restocked about 5 times in 4 seconds back to 160 units - no human can think that fast.
The reason I believe is they were trying to break a expansion move starting from the previous leg. That move was a 15 pips and if the next leg continued at that pace, it threatened their control of the order book. For them to make money, they prefer to be either the dominant buyer or seller and they can’t risk breakout traders getting the upper hand.

To put it bluntly, the bots weapon is just large volume but they also may remove liquidity in front of price to create gaps. This data is unfortunately hidden from liquidity traders like myself.

I believe they will never be used to trade PA, they are just designed to manipulate liquidity which is a very easy task to perform if you have large pockets.
One on Thursday I even caught a video of the block that turned the market at the high. That block was followed soon after with three aggressive large volume Sells within a 15 second period to ensure price turned bearish.

I sold

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #2,686
  • Edited 9:43pm Jul 31, 2021 9:15pm | Edited 9:43pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Pumi Bots already are in control of the market and if you sat with me one night viewing a Futures chart, you can see them trade most nights. I think it’s important to know they only engage the market to trade direction of the market only and they normally perform there duties by creating continuous order blocks using large volumes to absorb movement. The one on EURUSD at about 1.1883 absorbed six different bearish moves before price was reversed. The task the bot performs is to restock the order instantly the moment the order is eroded,...
I gave a serious thought about your volume strategy to assess the usefulness to compliment and enhance the risk management of algo math trading. If I'm not wrong going by the few pictures ryuryu and you posted previously the trades mostly sit on the opposite side of the spectrum as expected. Therein lies the problem. The other issue is to set up separate resources to host your volume strategy. And then incorporate both in a practical manner. Merging ying and yang is not a simple task of 1+1=2.

Quoting Pumi
So an algo must be able to do what humans can and can't do (it can't discard the possible irrational behaviour of humans). 1 + 1 = 2 is not always true in trading.
This should be true where the base strategy is objectively quantified. However, the level of logic based on the required parameters is beyond me, possibly beyond MT4 platform and beyond retail sector as well. Therefore there's the possibility but it's outside retail traders resources to create such bot traders.
Know what you trade
  • #2,687
  • Jul 31, 2021 9:16pm Jul 31, 2021 9:16pm
Mmmm. Sometimes there's nothing worse or more damaging than someone saying in the same breath - "this is what usually happens" and "I believe this is what is happening". And this is the problem, whether day trading or not, people get to a point where they think "Oh that'll do, I'm tired and can't be bothered to do anymore. I'll just stick with behaviorism. That should be enough to get me what I want."

For me, "I believe" doesn't cut it. Doesn't EVEN COME CLOSE.

These things called orders come in and then .........


Attached Image


Yeah I think there might be more to the "story".

I find it somewhat unscrupulous, if not a tad reckless, that some people insist on running a 100m sprint race, only to pull up at the 70m or 80m line and just stop "because they think that's all they need".

The real life problem I see with many "traders" is - you have never met someone AND spent time with that person to learn that most people only operate out of a place of 'convenience' instead of doing their work properly and more thoroughly. So it's no surprise that many people make the assumption that "day trading" is about 1-5 pip TP and that's it. There's a whole sub-culture, now, built around the cult-like following and belief system that data and point to point interaction is the "future". Let me tell you a little secret - the future will be what OTHERS say it is NOT you. So if you have ANY gumption, you will try to see it all as a 'stepping stone' and nothing more. This means it is NOT a corner stone but a side stream of insight.

After something like this is said, it's always funny to see how many people want to try and "argue" their way out using common sense.

Moral of the story (hehehehe, yes pun intended) - you cannot take someone seriously if they place the use of common sense at the BACK OF THE LINE and the end of their process....... if you plan on keeping your money anyway.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #2,688
  • Jul 31, 2021 9:37pm Jul 31, 2021 9:37pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
Mmmm. Sometimes there's nothing worse or more damaging than someone saying in the same breath - "this is what usually happens" and "I believe this is what is happening". And this is the problem, whether day trading or not, people get to a point where they think "Oh that'll do, I'm tired and can't be bothered to do anymore. I'll just stick with behaviorism. That should be enough to get me what I want." For me, "I believe" doesn't cut it. Doesn't EVEN COME CLOSE. These things called orders come in and then ......... {image} Yeah I think there might...
Using common sense requires some effort and so day by day it is becoming a scarce thing. You put in quite a coherent way. Thank you.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #2,689
  • Jul 31, 2021 9:45pm Jul 31, 2021 9:45pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Pumi Bots already are in control of the market and if you sat with me one night viewing a Futures chart, you can see them trade most nights. I think it’s important to know they only engage the market to trade direction of the market only and they normally perform there duties by creating continuous order blocks using large volumes to absorb movement. The one on EURUSD at about 1.1883 absorbed six different bearish moves before price was reversed. The task the bot performs is to restock the order instantly the moment the order is eroded,...
You have put it well for a trader to plot the use of volumes for micro view trading . Traders putting in time and using common sense will immensly benefit from your insights. As a life-long learner of actionable ideas, I will join your Discord channel.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #2,690
  • Jul 31, 2021 9:50pm Jul 31, 2021 9:50pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
Mmmm. The real life problem I see with many "traders" is - Peter
The real life problem I see with many "traders" is they never done 69 and 99.
69 is wonderful 99 is fun the hole is small.
  • #2,691
  • Jul 31, 2021 9:54pm Jul 31, 2021 9:54pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
Mmmm. (hehehehe,
mmmmm, hehehee you reach climax ah.

Don't continue to talk cock (btw I don't think you have one to start with)
why not we take a challenge now on BTCUSD, from London Open to London Close.
  • #2,692
  • Jul 31, 2021 10:03pm Jul 31, 2021 10:03pm
Quoting kette
awesome room livetrader vs demo idiots i love the smart demo traders ,let everyone post a live trade and then discuss it
Wow, what a great trader you are, all winning trades, impressive just going through all your charts.
You're definitely on par with TraderRon.
  • #2,693
  • Jul 31, 2021 10:04pm Jul 31, 2021 10:04pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I gave a serious thought about your volume strategy to assess the usefulness to compliment and enhance the risk management of algo math trading. If I'm not wrong going by the few pictures ryuryu and you posted previously the trades mostly sit on the opposite side of the spectrum as expected. Therein lies the problem. The other issue is to set up separate resources to host your volume strategy. And then incorporate both in a practical manner. Merging ying and yang is not a simple task of 1+1=2. {quote} This should be true where the base strategy...
Hi BWilliams

I looked at your trades you post earlier in the year (only a few examples to be fair) and I feel those mostly matched up with a Volume only strategy, not necessarily a Volume / Delta strategy.

Many of the trades we take (that's my strategy and ryuryu using his manic bots) are timed with entry's after we get a strong Delta signal from Futures. Honestly we nail most of them on delta signals, then I later go shopping for some strong volume signals for additional trades.

Can I say if traders only stay on the order book side of Futures Delta when trading spot, you win most trades and take only small loses.

Can I also add something you may not want to hear. In all of Peters crap he posted in this thread, he has passed one very intelligent piece of information that may explain while your strategy works. You had better re-read his rubbish till you find it.

Do you get what I am talking about?.

Luckily dickhead Peter has ignored me now (there is a God after all) so he won't read this post and therefore won't comment.

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #2,694
  • Edited 10:30pm Jul 31, 2021 10:10pm | Edited 10:30pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi BWilliams I looked at your trades you post earlier in the year (only a few examples to be fair) and I feel those mostly matched up with a Volume only strategy, not necessarily a Volume / Delta strategy. Many of the trades we take (that's my strategy and ryuryu using his manic bots) are timed with entry's after we get a strong Delta signal from Futures. Honestly we nail most of them on delta signals, then I later go shopping for some strong volume signals for additional trades. Can I say if traders only stay on the order book side of Futures...
BTCUSD right now approx. 41940 is attacking the high. Can volume strategy pin point exactly when and where to execute sell entry? That's what I'm looking for when complimenting ying and yang.

About PeterCaleb, not everything he wrote is bs. The issue is in the manner he delivers them.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btc1.PNG Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: btc2.PNG Size: 30 KB
Know what you trade
  • #2,695
  • Edited 11:23pm Jul 31, 2021 11:05pm | Edited 11:23pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} BTCUSD right now approx. 41940 is attacking the high. Can volume strategy pin point exactly when and where to execute sell entry? That's what I'm looking for when complimenting ying and yang. About PeterCaleb, not everything he wrote is bs. The issue is in the manner he delivers them. {image} {image}
Here's the specific ying yang question. Can volume data pin point these 6 entry points in a rising market moving towards target ?
Can volume data pin point the turning point moving away from target ?
Is your volume strategy limited to 1m tf ?
An affirmative response means there's complimentary virtues in ying and yang vv.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btc3.PNG Size: 35 KB
Know what you trade
  • #2,696
  • Edited Aug 1, 2021 12:10am Jul 31, 2021 11:58pm | Edited Aug 1, 2021 12:10am
Quoting RickM
Luckily dickhead Peter has ignored me now (there is a God after all) so he won't read this post and therefore won't comment.
Wow.. A masive ignoring action by Peter..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_20210801_074703.jpg Size: 228 KB

Seems he was taking some advice from Aussi. But strange... For trolls it is "must have" to have oposition. He just turned off "food supply"... How he gona live?

Meanwhile i noticed he desperatly wants that gepards delete an thread... what a pain for Peter...

Quoting gepards
so here I just communicate, get ideas for my new EAs, do training, learning, have fun with trolls etc
Poor Peter... For me seems gepards is playing games with Peter like cat with mouse.
  • #2,697
  • Aug 1, 2021 1:11am Aug 1, 2021 1:11am
Quoting joyny
{quote} Wow.. A masive ignoring action by Peter.. {image} Seems he was taking some advice from Aussi. But strange... For trolls it is "must have" to have oposition. He just turned off "food supply"... How he gona live? Meanwhile i noticed he desperatly wants that gepards delete an thread... what a pain for Peter... {quote} Poor Peter... For me seems gepards is playing games with Peter like cat with mouse.
he is just a childish singaporean guy.
  • #2,698
  • Aug 1, 2021 2:00am Aug 1, 2021 2:00am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Here's the specific ying yang question. Can volume data pin point these 6 entry points in a rising market moving towards target ? Can volume data pin point the turning point moving away from target ? Is your volume strategy limited to 1m tf ? An affirmative response means there's complimentary virtues in ying and yang vv. {image}
Hi BWilliams

I don't trade BTCUSD or have the data feeds set up on my platform at present so its hard for me to comment on that chart.

But to answer your question on volume, we are dealing with the relationship of aggressive market orders feeding off passive limit orders. The volume which is executed aggressive market orders is exact and clear. Limit orders however are hidden behind a thousand mirrors so this is the X factor.
Volume isn't always useful to determine pullback points because of the X factor but can be very exact in determining swing points.
Delta on the other hand is showing us executed imbalance signals in real time - this would have offered good signals on pullbacks as you outlined.

So a Volume / Delta combination of signals would have shown you a clear pathway to trade - if you have clarity & vision.

Get back to real money and I can be of more help.

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #2,699
  • Edited 4:36am Aug 1, 2021 4:12am | Edited 4:36am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 56a8c2cb5a4969691c4fb8b3cf19c835.png Size: 80 KB


Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Here's the specific ying yang question. Can volume data pin point these 6 entry points in a rising market moving towards target
The problem is that your chart makes no sense and there is nothing to discuss here. All I see are some numbers placed at random historical moments and also some dashed lines. There are no data to make a trading decision. Enter the trade because of drawings on the chart is that gambling approach you were talking about few pages earlier.

Quoting BWilliam
Is your volume strategy limited to 1m tf ?
There is no sense with trading on higher TFs because speed is a competitive advantage.

If you want to trade crypto I suggest you to use binance (the biggest crypto exchange) data from their api. It is totally free and works like a charm. You can have full volume data to make a trading decision. Remember that there are no volume data on forex. Even for BTCUSD.

One more observation. You fully don't understand how crypto works and how to trade it. It is meaningless to trade long on crypto since if you own some you are in long by default without any risk. Also there is no need to trade crypto derivatives on forex, because they are nominated in dollars (additional risk). It is better to short only with 1x leverage that gives you additional advantage because the dollar price is fixed, you will earn swap and there are no risk at all. It is win-win strategy.

We are talking about volume for more than 3 month already. You are arguing against it all the 3 month but even didn't try it. But your charts and your trades show that you even don't understand the things.

I'm sorry If I hurt you, but I think if you want to talk about volume you should try it first. If you want to trade crypto and discuss crypto you must learn it first. And only then you can make a poker face and start to teach others how to trade.
Observer effect
  • #2,700
  • Aug 1, 2021 4:35am Aug 1, 2021 4:35am
Quoting simnz
{quote} You have put it well for a trader to plot the use of volumes for micro view trading . Traders putting in time and using common sense will immensly benefit from your insights. As a life-long learner of actionable ideas, I will join your Discord channel.
Nooo!!! Why you want to join??? You are not a trader! I don't like to spend time for useless discussions! Please DO NOT join!
Please create your own discord channel and discuss your useless drawings there!!!
Observer effect
5 traders viewing now