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  • #41
  • Jul 27, 2021 5:59pm Jul 27, 2021 5:59pm
My advice for you is to think of trading as a profession.
There are so many people who come to forex in search of easy money. There is no easy money, and everyone has to work hard to make some profits. Forex is not an exception: successful traders devote much time and efforts to understand and analyse the market which is really unpredictable and more often than not spoils many trading strategy. That is why it is important for you to learn risk and money management in order to be able to manage your deposit in the most efficient and profitable way. As for studying materials, I support the basic opinion that babypips have one of the best free tutorials about forex. More than that, I advise you not to spend any money on some tutorials or courses or webinars because all you need to know is available for free.
  • #42
  • Jul 27, 2021 11:00pm Jul 27, 2021 11:00pm
dont rush in to a trade, dont chase a loss, start with demo, move on to small amounts

have a written down trading plan, and stick to it
  • #43
  • Jul 28, 2021 5:01am Jul 28, 2021 5:01am
Hi,

I just started trading today and lost my very first position (less than 1 % of course as I'm trading with very very little money capital and very very very little risk).

I wanted to present my challenge of coming from a total noob to an expert to the people of the forum.

So I guess I haven't a lot to say to help as I'm only starting. But I'll say all I've seen in many fields and not only trading is that the people that persevere and go for the long haul have a much higher chance to succeed than the others.

If you're gifted, that can happen, you maybe haven't a so much big need to persevere (natural muscular guys for fitness game, natural good speaker for success with women, natural good memory and focus abilities for success as a student, etc). But more than often it's a question of who will continue to train and who won't.

I bet everything on the ability to persevere, I'm gifted in some areas and don't need it that much, but in most of them I'm not that much gifted and have to put the time, energy, effort, and working on my mindset and habits to succeed.

I hope you guys will help me to reach that goal of noob trader to hero trader ! I'll show you how great I'm ! How bad I want it.

Have a wonderful day everybody

P.S : Sorry if my english isn't perfect, it's not my first langage, I apologize for mistakes in sentences. Thank you very much for your understanding
  • #44
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:50am Jul 28, 2021 9:50am
Quoting Focusedmind
Hi, I just started trading today and lost my very first position (less than 1 % of course as I'm trading with very very little money capital and very very very little risk). I wanted to present my challenge of coming from a total noob to an expert to the people of the forum. So I guess I haven't a lot to say to help as I'm only starting. But I'll say all I've seen in many fields and not only trading is that the people that persevere and go for the long haul have a much higher chance to succeed than the others. If you're gifted, that can happen,...
Hi and welcome to the turbulent, volatile, heartbreaking, amazing, exciting, wonderful world of forex trading!

We have all been where you are starting now - If I can give some advise - don't ever give up. There will be days where you want to throw your PC out of the window, just dont ever give up. This either is for you or not for you, only you can decide. Have fun, be patient, FOLLOW YOUR TRADING RULES and hope you have a lot of green pips!
Janus Return Today: 28.1%
  • #45
  • Jul 28, 2021 10:27pm Jul 28, 2021 10:27pm
Quoting Focusedmind
Hi, I just started trading today and lost my very first position (less than 1 % of course as I'm trading with very very little money capital and very very very little risk). I wanted to present my challenge of coming from a total noob to an expert to the people of the forum. So I guess I haven't a lot to say to help as I'm only starting. But I'll say all I've seen in many fields and not only trading is that the people that persevere and go for the long haul have a much higher chance to succeed than the others. If you're gifted, that can happen,...
If you can share why you took the trade than can examine why it went against you. "Trading is an evolution of thought processes" For myself I trade based on institutional sentiment and has been a process for the past 20 years to get to this point.
  • #46
  • Jul 29, 2021 11:07am Jul 29, 2021 11:07am
Quoting janusforex
{quote} Hi and welcome to the turbulent, volatile, heartbreaking, amazing, exciting, wonderful world of forex trading! We have all been where you are starting now - If I can give some advise - don't ever give up. There will be days where you want to throw your PC out of the window, just dont ever give up. This either is for you or not for you, only you can decide. Have fun, be patient, FOLLOW YOUR TRADING RULES and hope you have a lot of green pips!
Thank you for your welcoming !

I'm at my day N°2 of trading and made many mystakes, drawdown 1,39 % total with 6 trades in total in 2 days and many stupid things done !

I'm trying to correct now my main mystake of the day, and be better for next week. Hope it will work. Thank you for your message
  • #47
  • Jul 29, 2021 11:20am Jul 29, 2021 11:20am
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} If you can share why you took the trade than can examine why it went against you. "Trading is an evolution of thought processes" For myself I trade based on institutional sentiment and has been a process for the past 20 years to get to this point.
Well I was on m1 EUR / USD, stop loss to 6 pips (can't have a shorter stop loss because I'm on a real account but on a limited risk special account so my stop loss is guaranteed by my broker no matter what happen on the market).

Took a buy on 9h11 AM at Paris Hour (UTC +02:00), as I saw a down trend be broken, with confirmation of my noob system (a little positive on DEMO trading) with the heiki ashin chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIRST TRADE.png Size: 13 KB

At the end it started to range a little then go down a little, I wanted to stay in the trade and was ready to accept a loss.

The problem is my system worked with a 4 pips stop loss and going to break even at 4 pips positive, that means a lot of neutral trades, but it gives a very low probability of a loser.

Now can't go to 4 pips, and also strangely can't go to breakeven as the stop loss don't move, I'll have to ask to my broker if it's linked to my "stop loss guaranteed" account.

Also the system was positive between 7 and 8 A.M at the hour of Paris, meaning the one hour before the Longon session opening. With the possibility to stay in a good trade for as much as needed, but no position taken outside this hour. At least it's the basis of the system, and I didn't respected this.

I'm very glad that someone like you with 20 years of experience dare to answer to a noob like me that is now today to only 2 days of trading, with also many mystakes made today.

Thank you a lot !!!
  • #48
  • Jul 29, 2021 7:56pm Jul 29, 2021 7:56pm
Quoting Focusedmind
{quote} Well I was on m1 EUR / USD, stop loss to 6 pips (can't have a shorter stop loss because I'm on a real account but on a limited risk special account so my stop loss is guaranteed by my broker no matter what happen on the market). Took a buy on 9h11 AM at Paris Hour (UTC +02:00), as I saw a down trend be broken, with confirmation of my noob system (a little positive on DEMO trading) with the heiki ashin chart. {image} At the end it started to range a little then go down a little, I wanted to stay in the trade and was ready to accept a loss....
Just to be clear, since this was USD related this was traded on a FOMC day? Did you review any recent economic news or scan any news services to get a feel of how the markets were behaving at that time?
  • #49
  • Jul 30, 2021 1:07pm Jul 30, 2021 1:07pm
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} Just to be clear, since this was USD related this was traded on a FOMC day? Did you review any recent economic news or scan any news services to get a feel of how the markets were behaving at that time?
Hello, thank you for your answer.

On the FOMC day I saw the event was late in the evening, at 8 PM. My trade was taken in the morning and I didn't intended to stay with it all the day. It's more like a scalping system with a possibility to aim for some hours, or a day, but never when big news are released and never staying in the night.

I know there is the technical analysis method on the graphs and the news trading with a more focus on the events in the world. I'm on technical analysis mainly, mainly on scalping m1, mainly on EUR-USD (later GER30 I think). I've learned to not stay engaged in a trade when big events are released as it can totally change the way the market is moving and give very bad results at those times.

Thought, as my stop loss is guaranteed by my broker, I thought the other day that maybe I could try trading news with less risk... I'm not sure about this for now.

Thank you for your answer, as you can see I'm more a noob, a focused and ready to persevere noob, but a noob nevertheless. Had 6 trades only, 2 days on trading only, had made something like 15 stupid mystakes in those first 2 days (taking trades outside of the hours decided for it, not moving my stop loss to breakeven despite it's a rule of the my system, chasing trades, take more than one trade a day despite having decided to start with this for now to see how it's going, being VERY VERY affected by how the trade was going and clearly NOT calm and detached at all.... etc !). Sorry for being a loser for now but it will change.

I will make it change !

P.S : I don't even know how to trade with news, I learned a lot in technical analysis but never in news trading
  • #50
  • Jul 30, 2021 4:57pm Jul 30, 2021 4:57pm
Quoting Focusedmind
{quote} Hello, thank you for your answer. On the FOMC day I saw the event was late in the evening, at 8 PM. My trade was taken in the morning and I didn't intended to stay with it all the day. It's more like a scalping system with a possibility to aim for some hours, or a day, but never when big news are released and never staying in the night. I know there is the technical analysis method on the graphs and the news trading with a more focus on the events in the world. I'm on technical analysis mainly, mainly on scalping m1, mainly on EUR-USD (later...
Don't beat yourself up too badly, at this point you are developing your "War Wounds" . What you did is what 99% all retail do (and you broker knows this). I remember what I thought was the "Holy Grail" using a P&F chart with Hull MA. I was like this is it, and thought "What island am I going to be able to buy". This setup was a disaster, however just kept plugging away at it. Sometime this weekend I'll try to share how to read the news (what to look for and more importantly waiting for institutional sentiment to push things, because this is what drives prices and not indicators. My suggestion is get rid of all indicators on your chart and get use to looking at naked chart setup with candlesticks.
  • #51
  • Edited Jul 31, 2021 6:26am Jul 30, 2021 6:53pm | Edited Jul 31, 2021 6:26am

The 20/20 Project


Purpose:
Is an ongoing “Vetting” trading development system, meant to produce strategies and methodologies into workable
trade models in the Forex markets. The purpose is to create a factor of 0 in emotion, relying on “hindsight” to
avoid jumping from one system to another when one trade or a string of bad trades goes against you.

Goal:
Produce 1-viable trading system/modal at the end of every quarter with each system producing a 65%-win rate or
higher.

Sample Size:
Consists of 20 trades based on fixed parameters (time frame, target, stop loss, session traded, pairs traded, indicators used, etc.)
Once these parameters are in place DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING during the sample size, let the results at the end
of the 20 trades dictate what needs to be tweaked or in most cases is not a viable strategy.


Consist of 6 Phases:
Phase 1: Initial 20 sample in “Demo” mode
Phase 2: 2nd set of 20 sample still in “Demo” mode (avoid being lucky from phase 1)
Phase 3: 3rd set of 20 sample however in “Live mode” however trades at .01 lot sizes. (Trading this small, there is no room for error and will not blow up your account). Going from demo to a live environment are 2 different animals.
Phase 4: 4th 20 sample at ½ of normal size lot size with additional money management in place (trading multiple lot size with varies targets, etc.)
Phase 5: 5th 20 sample size of normal trading lot sizes. “Maybe I can be a full-time trader now”
Phase 6: Strategy has stop producing positive results (happen as market dynamics change from time to time) in this sample size, move back into phase 2 or 3 for review.

Here is an examples a sample size to give an idea:
System Name: X192-R
Time Frame: Hourly chart
Duration: Intra-day and hold til the end of day.
Pairs trades: USD based only.
Condition: Does not trade on major USD related news days.
Indicators: None, uses candlestick formations (Do not ask about this as this is for example only)

-13

Summary of Phase 1 (see image below):
20 trades: 75%win rate: Overall +207 pips
Wins: 15
Loss: 5
b/e: 0

In reviewing this sample size, low drawdown (nice), however “concerned” with too many winning trades in a row warrants this to conduct another sample size of 20 or moves into phase 2.

I think you get the idea of how this works. The process takes a while, but after time you will have workable strategies along with a pipeline of many others in the works. Once you find a viable strategy that is in phase 5, you will than see hybrids systems evolve.

This system is meant to address the emotional aspect of trading. How often as traders, start incurring a loss or a string of losses, than second guess the setups, overanalyze, and end up missing what could had been a great trade.

Think of it this way, most companies have an R&D program, why can’t a trader have their own

Once you get your first workable strategy, you will be on the start of the road of confidence, making money, and trading for others.

This concept comes from the book "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas

Good Luck
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30-07-2021-06-52-08.png Size: 7 KB
  • #52
  • Jul 31, 2021 4:34pm Jul 31, 2021 4:34pm
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} Don't beat yourself up too badly, at this point you are developing your "War Wounds" . What you did is what 99% all retail do (and you broker knows this). I remember what I thought was the "Holy Grail" using a P&F chart with Hull MA. I was like this is it, and thought "What island am I going to be able to buy". This setup was a disaster, however just kept plugging away at it. Sometime this weekend I'll try to share how to read the news (what to look for and more importantly waiting for institutional sentiment to push things, because...
Thank you for your answer.

In fact in demo I started with someting like - 5 % / day, then tried to find ways to become a little less bad each day. I was at - 2 % day soon. Then - 1 % per day. Then - 0,50 per day. Then - 0,20 % day, etc, until I came for the very first time to the + 0,01 % / day in the positive zone, calculated on 100 days of demo trading.

It was some years ago, had a strike of bad events in personal life unfortunately (I'm not going to explain this here, it's just a sad story), I had to pause my progress in trading and focus to rebuild my life from scratch (body wounded, lost families members, nearly broke, etc).

Now I'll tell you something. I'll use the same tactic to improve. In 2 days I was stupid enough to lose - 1,39 % of my very small capital. That means - 0,70 % per day nearly. That's my level of now.

I NOW man, I'm SURE, that if I manage to go to - 0,60 % per day, then - 0,40 per day, - 0,20 per day, etc, etc, etc.... I'll go this time in the positive zone with this REAL account.

Then I'll have to do and repeat the same process but with increasing in positive mode. 0,01 % per day => + 0,10 % per day => +0,30 % per day => etc, etc ! Until I'm amazing. Of course the % will not grow forever and even go lower when far later I'll have a big capital. But it could make so much money.

I'll focus on this.

If you want to help about news trading that would be AMAZING as I've no clue about this, except the fact I should be out when BIG news are released, in scalping ! I'll love to hear about your way of doing this and to learn this skill !

Have a nice day / evening
  • #53
  • Edited 5:03pm Jul 31, 2021 4:43pm | Edited 5:03pm
Quoting XxixixX
The 20/20 Project Purpose: Is an ongoing “Vetting” trading development system, meant to produce strategies and methodologies into workable trade models in the Forex markets. The purpose is to create a factor of 0 in emotion, relying on “hindsight” to avoid jumping from one system to another when one trade or a string of bad trades goes against you. Goal: Produce 1-viable trading system/modal at the end of every quarter with each system producing a 65%-win rate or higher. Sample Size: Consists of 20 trades based on fixed parameters (time frame, target,...
Thank you a lot for sharing this, it gives me the want to test my strategy of now, but in fact I have to say I was sometimes shoked about the results it seems to be possible to have with it so now I'm testing it directly on the charts.

Some people say "NO DEMO NEVER !" others say "A LOT OF DEMO TO THE MAX POSSIBLE UNTIL GOING INTO REAL STUFF !". I'm saying let's get good in demo but when starting to get positive, let's switch to real to start to learn the real thing while having been able to be at least at neutral level with the market on demo. I didn't wanted to postpone the real thing for a too long time, so now I'm in real !

Well, in fact your way to create strategies might be a very interesting thing also to compare the result of the same strategy with one thing different. Example : ICHIMOKU GER30 M15 9AM-2PM when the price go under / up the cloud + a signal needed from another indicator, stoping the trade when the reward is 2 X more than the risk taken ////// VS ////// exactly the same strategy BUT on M5 //// or //// BUT going out when the price is coming from the other side of the cloud //// or //// BUT at 3PM-8pm.

This open the possibility to improve the strategy and see if it can get even better. Even if I know trying to optimize too much can get worse results at some point.

Well, I feel incredibly good even if exhausted of those first 2 days of real trading. I'll try to rest and relax one or 2 days, then go back to this fight !

Have a nice day / evening !!
  • #54
  • Aug 1, 2021 5:29am Aug 1, 2021 5:29am
Quoting Focusedmind
{quote} Thank you for your answer. In fact in demo I started with someting like - 5 % / day, then tried to find ways to become a little less bad each day. I was at - 2 % day soon. Then - 1 % per day. Then - 0,50 per day. Then - 0,20 % day, etc, until I came for the very first time to the + 0,01 % / day in the positive zone, calculated on 100 days of demo trading. It was some years ago, had a strike of bad events in personal life unfortunately (I'm not going to explain this here, it's just a sad story), I had to pause my progress in trading and focus...
Life has a way of doing that "GETTING IN THE WAY" . Trading is unforgiving, requires focus, and if your dealing with personal issues take care of what is needed or the markets will treat it like an open wound and add salt to it.

Drawdowns happens, its how you handle it. When you are trading for others risk assessment is also view as #1 priority. Some of the strategies I use start with a small position and build once the trend is underway. Not every trade is going to work out, however I can have 9 trades in a row be losers, and the 1 winning one makes up for those loses and then some.

Trading news can be tricky and I always, mean always wait at least 15 - 60 mins (Depends on the strategy), for the larger players to decide which way to move things. News is one thing, it is the institutions that move prices.

I started another thread to start discussing varies concepts in trading "Concepts to assist New and struggling traders"
  • #55
  • Aug 1, 2021 5:48am Aug 1, 2021 5:48am
Quoting Focusedmind
{quote} Thank you a lot for sharing this, it gives me the want to test my strategy of now, but in fact I have to say I was sometimes shoked about the results it seems to be possible to have with it so now I'm testing it directly on the charts. Some people say "NO DEMO NEVER !" others say "A LOT OF DEMO TO THE MAX POSSIBLE UNTIL GOING INTO REAL STUFF !". I'm saying let's get good in demo but when starting to get positive, let's switch to real to start to learn the real thing while having been able to be at least at neutral level with the market on...
Demo has its place and so does trading live. That is why I recommend in phase 3 at .01. There is no room for error at this size, once you get past this phase, you than move up and can scale out (target levels) your trades as needed.

Just keep in mind "the smaller the time frame, the greater the noise".

I am not a big fan of indicators, (been down 1000's of rabbit holes) only to come to the same outcome. Indicators are based on fixed data points. (Just look at the code), meaning 1+1 =2, 2 +2 =4, etc. However the market may decide 1+ 1 = 3 one day and the next 1+1 = 0. Case in point those that trade Bitcoin, did any of those indicators predict that Elon Musk would send tweets that would have a huge impact? I remember when Trump took office he would send tweets early morning that would ruin a setup in progress. I still review them, just the new ones being developed to help foster ideas for possible strategies.
  • #56
  • Aug 2, 2021 2:16am Aug 2, 2021 2:16am
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} Life has a way of doing that "GETTING IN THE WAY" . Trading is unforgiving, requires focus, and if your dealing with personal issues take care of what is needed or the markets will treat it like an open wound and add salt to it. Drawdowns happens, its how you handle it. When you are trading for others risk assessment is also view as #1 priority. Some of the strategies I use start with a small position and build once the trend is underway. Not every trade is going to work out, however I can have 9 trades in a row be losers, and the...
You're right it's not possible to have a personal life very stressful + a professional life that can be also very stressful... at least one area needs to be peaceful so the other can thrive.

It's amazing if you can take 9 loss and then recover with 1 win. You should have a mental of steel to trade this strategy. I'm more on the % of winning, so I can be more assured that i's slowly going up, nearly never having 3 consecutive loss. At least on the paper, real practice will tell me the truth.
  • #57
  • Aug 2, 2021 2:20am Aug 2, 2021 2:20am
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} Demo has its place and so does trading live. That is why I recommend in phase 3 at .01. There is no room for error at this size, once you get past this phase, you than move up and can scale out (target levels) your trades as needed. Just keep in mind "the smaller the time frame, the greater the noise". I am not a big fan of indicators, (been down 1000's of rabbit holes) only to come to the same outcome. Indicators are based on fixed data points. (Just look at the code), meaning 1+1 =2, 2 +2 =4, etc. However the market may decide 1+ 1 = 3...
Do you trade only with news + technical analysis ? Or do you have like me some system that just say "go away when big news are released" and focusing only on technical analysis ?

Also, about how many years did you need to get enough good so you could show your skills to others and starting trading for them ? I suppose it's at least 3 years of good results, so it's probably a very long term thing...

Have a nice day
  • #58
  • Aug 2, 2021 4:34am Aug 2, 2021 4:34am
Quoting Focusedmind
{quote} You're right it's not possible to have a personal life very stressful + a professional life that can be also very stressful... at least one area needs to be peaceful so the other can thrive. It's amazing if you can take 9 loss and then recover with 1 win. You should have a mental of steel to trade this strategy. I'm more on the % of winning, so I can be more assured that i's slowly going up, nearly never having 3 consecutive loss. At least on the paper, real practice will tell me the truth.
That is why you start small and build into a position. This develops a "No Fear" in trading. I cannot tell you how many times I got burned, than pass up on a trade that would had been a winner. It is very damaging mentally and had to figure a "workaround" this hurdle. It is essential to understand that not every trade will work out. The strategy that works (posted in thread started over at "Concepts for new and struggling traders") Covers a "Central Bank" trade setup. Start with a small position and as the intuitions finally decide which way to move prices, start adding into it on a hourly basis with increased size with each add based on intuitional activity. I posted an example of the USD/CAD trade based on the FOMC last week.
  • #59
  • Aug 2, 2021 4:45am Aug 2, 2021 4:45am
Quoting Focusedmind
{quote} Do you trade only with news + technical analysis ? Or do you have like me some system that just say "go away when big news are released" and focusing only on technical analysis ? Also, about how many years did you need to get enough good so you could show your skills to others and starting trading for them ? I suppose it's at least 3 years of good results, so it's probably a very long term thing... Have a nice day
It depends, I have about 15 working strategies I use throughout the week. Some are intra-day, vs. others are for the day. The FX markets are very fickle and just have not found anything viable that works for me longer term. (still have some in the 20/20 testing) however nothing has held up going into the 4th phase.

Trading for others, started at about year 10. Keep in mind trading for others is a different animal. Started with family members, who would ask and say sure why not. I learned along the way this can be a mistake. Certain expectations take place and it seemed like the smaller the amount of funds traded, the more I was scrutinized especially for losing days. There are enough prop houses these days, that you can trade for but they have restrictions. Once you get pass the evaluation phase and can prove you can mange risk while hitting their target they ease up a bit.
  • #60
  • Aug 3, 2021 8:43am Aug 3, 2021 8:43am
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} That is why you start small and build into a position. This develops a "No Fear" in trading. I cannot tell you how many times I got burned, than pass up on a trade that would had been a winner. It is very damaging mentally and had to figure a "workaround" this hurdle. It is essential to understand that not every trade will work out. The strategy that works (posted in thread started over at "Concepts for new and struggling traders") Covers a "Central Bank" trade setup. Start with a small position and as the intuitions finally decide which...
Yeah i'll check this on your thread, hoping trading with news isn't too difficult compared to technical analysis !
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