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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #2,481
  • Jul 27, 2021 7:05pm Jul 27, 2021 7:05pm
Quoting gepards
{quote} {quote} it seems to me only 25% correlation then.. 75% trades involved in averaging... 25% was correct entries without averaging to exit wrong entries.
Hi gepards

I don’t average down when I trade with Futures Data, that’s a quick way to a margin call.
I am a manic hedger and will defend my position at all costs. I hedge both when in profit to defend against a liquidity spike and hedge when in draw down if the Cumulative Delta flips against me.
So I defend my position if I feel their is value still being in the market.

Those comments were about that particular day where I struggled to get grips of what the big players were doing. On that day, my win rate was well below average at about 60% but I hedged my way to profit my increasing trade size on my next entry to cover trading costs.

The point of that post was to show over trading can overcome incorrect decisions with astute hedging. I still managed to end the night with a nice profit.

Lets look at last night where I hit 95% win rate because I was able to understand the intend of the big players. Please refer to the EURUSD only thread to see my post on some live calls I made. My total trades were only 45 and my hedges were only 8, 4 were while in profit and 4 were in draw down.

As a guide, a 5 pip draw down is not acceptable for me, that will be hedged very quickly.

I trade liquidity imbalances that can change at any second, it’s hard to nail trade after trade when the big players only make their plays 10 to 20 seconds before there orders are executed.


Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #2,482
  • Jul 27, 2021 7:19pm Jul 27, 2021 7:19pm
Quoting Viktory
{quote} Yes, that's one way of doing it; not the only one. And we're not talking about "forex -tick- volume", but centralized volume & liquidity data from all the centralizedly traded contracts, while also seeing some passive ones [which of course can change to become misleading]; utilized for very short-term trading (not swinging like you), even if it's "only" from a couple of small exchanges (compared to the total flow of central & commercial banks). {quote} As it has been already stated and clarified many times, since years ago, tick-"volume"...
Hi Viktory

I think he would be shocked if he sat next to me while I traded the EURUSD.
I am talking about being shocked into how every single Futures imbalance reading is reflected in the price of Forex 0.5 seconds later.
I think whe would also be shocked to watch my broker block the execution of my trade by 0.5 seconds until Forex price CAUGHT up with Futures data.

All he has to do is look, then he could make up his own mind instead of believing all the market bullshit.

I am sure he has a perfectly good set of eyes, he needs to use them.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #2,483
  • Jul 27, 2021 7:30pm Jul 27, 2021 7:30pm
Quoting Viktory
{quote} {quote} Don't you see the contradiction? Peter was bashing Rick's and others "reliance" on external sources of information (like Futures Data) in order to make quicker and better informed trading decisions; but now, after staying quite for a while, he finally mentions using it, LOL * [EDIT]: ... after staying "quiet"...


You're a tool. I sense your brain is made of mayonnaise. If you knew ANYTHING worth knowing and understanding, you could AT LEAST keep things in context. I said - The problem with constantly utilizing external sources THAT YOU HAVE TO PAY FOR, is that they are beyond your control and can disappear at anytime AND they can be corrupted or generate omissions in their loadout. Hehehehe, tool. I only use data that is in the common because it is something EVERYONE wants to know. AND it is marketed to big firms and traders AND it is talked about and HAS BEEN talked about and utilized for years and years and years. You bloody tool. Please go and sit down at the back of the bus where you clearly belong.

So there's no contradiction in the minds of people who CAN THINK and READ. I too have used Futures data. But I use it to see ALL TF's not just the 1M AND I have used it to MAP my market of choice SO THEN I do not have to keep paying for it. You just have no idea do you. So what RickM and I do are WORLDS apart. Same desired outcome but different approaches.

Any other ridiculous things to say?


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #2,484
  • Edited 8:09pm Jul 27, 2021 7:31pm | Edited 8:09pm
Quoting Viktory
{quote} Nowadays, there's much more than just "brute force". Have you read about Super Computation, Parallel Processing, Neural Networks, Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning (from specialized software AND now also hardware) and Data Science? And from here to 2035 approx, Quantum Computing + further advances in A.I. will change EVERYTHING. And no one chooses to be born with X or Y I.Q or logical-mathematical "genius-level" intellect. That's mostly genetics; and not losing because "nurture". In fact, you don't need to be a "genius" to succeed...
As one that chose; I confirm with absolute certainty that you are incorrect. If a child is aware of the growth of their own neurons in adolescence then they realize their own biological potential and actively choose to develop them into a complex neural network over the years. There's nothing fascinating about doing it with silicon circuits if you've been actively doing it with your own neurons since before you could fully control your bladder muscles in your sleep. Some are genetically incapable but, most of us, as genetic homosapiens, have always been genetically capable of cultivating our neurons IF we chose to do so. I didn't choose to be a genius; most children simply chose not to be.

And it took quite a while to figure out what was wrong with most of you. I thought it was oobvious.The thing about genius level intellect is that it isn't proven by any recitation of mathematical constructs or any trivial evidence of 'intelligence'. The proof, much like an AI, is in at which point of it's development it becomes self-aware and continued through it's own inherent recursive processes to further develop it's complexity. I, genetically, have more neurons than some and less neurons than others. But by choosing to cultivate the networks in childhood I accessed our genetic potential much sooner than most.

No one told me not to or that I couldn't... and I saw no reason not to. But one of the first things I learned is that most of the adults who believed children couldn't be self-aware were once children that took forever to do so. Just because YOU may have required decades to do so does not mean that I waited nearly so long... even most elementary school teachers are incredibly inept at figuring out which students are self-aware; children are fussy and will satisfy them by demonstrating their intelligence only if they perceive that their intelligence has already been recognized. Dumb teachers beget dumb students.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,485
  • Jul 27, 2021 7:49pm Jul 27, 2021 7:49pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi Peter I knew your chart has alot of details and for sure if you dont explain i may not have a clue about it, i like that you have a setup like Rick using futures data and on top the deviation of Gbp vs Eur, for me it get difficult when they move apart to figure out which one going to follow the other, and on top the interest paid aspect was above my head to be frank as interest are paid monthly/quarterly. Any way thanks for taking time out writing the post. regards bilal



bilal,

As I have done numerous times, I will point out that FX Futures and Spot FX are NOT the same market - not the same category nor do they carry the same conditions of management. Can be similar in some ways - eg. movement and noted interest but are effectively different market entities. I use a GBP index divided by EUR index equation because the GBP is deeply founded in the global economy vs the Euro that may be 'bigger' via no. of countries involved but carries greater instability from a conglomerated perspective. Simply take the current value of the GBP index and divide it by the Euro index value. Then find your own adjustments for your own use and approach. You COULD use FX Futures price of interest chart (this is what most people consider their 'price chart' re: futures) but it's really an 'interest level' viewing. The conditions and rules for trading futures differs from Spot and so interest is weighted more than just price. Something to keep in mind if you want to access the FX futures arena to help with Spot. Interest paid is usually one of two things - a trader has closed out in profit and because all FX Spot is interest bearing, all profits are interest paid. The other type is a level or area where traders HAVE and CAN begin to take interest in opening trades.

I hope that helps.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #2,486
  • Edited 8:58pm Jul 27, 2021 8:38pm | Edited 8:58pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} As one that chose; I confirm with absolute certainty that you are incorrect. If a child is aware of the growth of their own neurons in adolescence then they realize their own biological potential and actively choose to develop them into a complex neural network over the years. There's nothing fascinating about doing it with silicon circuits if you've been actively doing it with your own neurons since before you could fully control your bladder muscles in your sleep. Some are genetically incapable but, most of us, as genetic homosapiens,...
You clearly didn't understand the totality of my message, nor the philosophy behind.
Also, I suggest you to study a little more in depth about neuroscience ;-)

[EDIT]:
And besides all that:
- You are talking about ME as if you know me; how pretentious.
- You're basically saying that there's "nothing fascinating" with science & technology R&D; how sad.

You're so confused about some concepts. Better keep living in your fantasy world...
Cheers!
  • #2,487
  • Jul 27, 2021 8:48pm Jul 27, 2021 8:48pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} You're a tool. I sense your brain is made of mayonnaise. If you knew ANYTHING worth knowing and understanding, you could AT LEAST keep things in context. I said - The problem with constantly utilizing external sources THAT YOU HAVE TO PAY FOR, is that they are beyond your control and can disappear at anytime AND they can be corrupted or generate omissions in their loadout. Hehehehe, tool. I only use data that is in the common because it is something EVERYONE wants to know. AND it is marketed to big firms and traders AND it is talked about...
LEL, nothing more ridiculous that your laughable incongruity and constant re-arrangements; cheap "word play" intent.
You talk too much and say so little. You're an oxymoron...

The only public & delayed data you can refer to, is in fact even worse in many aspects, more manipulated, incomplete, partial; and nothing similar as the charts you've shown. If payed-access data can get corrupted or dispensary, just imagine the rest
  • #2,488
  • Jul 27, 2021 8:49pm Jul 27, 2021 8:49pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} I said - The problem with constantly utilizing external sources THAT YOU HAVE TO PAY FOR, is that they are beyond your control and can disappear at anytime AND they can be corrupted or generate omissions in their loadout.
No, that is not what you said. You said this:

"If you constantly use outside sourced data then you are at the whims of outside your control. If you haven't yet learned to be self sufficient within your trading then you better start."

Count me among those who can think, read, and remember. Obviously you are having trouble keeping your bullshit straight.
  • #2,489
  • Jul 27, 2021 8:58pm Jul 27, 2021 8:58pm
Quoting Viktory
{quote} LEL, nothing more ridiculous that your laughable incongruity and constant re-arrangements; cheap "word play" intent. You talk too much and say so little. You're an oxymoron... The only public & delayed data you can refer to, is in fact even worse in many aspects, more manipulated, incomplete, partial; and nothing similar as the charts you've shown. If payed-access data can get corrupted or dispensary, just imagine the rest


If you say so.
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #2,490
  • Jul 27, 2021 9:00pm Jul 27, 2021 9:00pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} bilal, As I have done numerous times, I will point out that FX Futures and Spot FX are NOT the same market - not the same category nor do they carry the same conditions of management. Can be similar in some ways - eg. movement and noted interest but are effectively different market entities. I use a GBP index divided by EUR index equation because the GBP is deeply founded in the global economy vs the Euro that may be 'bigger' via no. of countries involved but carries greater instability from a conglomerated perspective. Simply take the current...
"You will point it out again"? Many other members have been pointing it out much before you appeared
In posts like this one, you just say the obvious; nothing new... and explained in a sub-par way.
  • #2,491
  • Jul 27, 2021 9:03pm Jul 27, 2021 9:03pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} No, that is not what you said. You said this: "If you constantly use outside sourced data then you are at the whims of outside your control. If you haven't yet learned to be self sufficient within your trading then you better start." Count me among those who can think, read, and remember. Obviously you are having trouble keeping your bullshit straight.


Another one that doesn't understand context before literary prose.

Those who are constantly 'on the hook' re: paid data and don't do MORE with it while they have it (!!!), than just create a day job for themselves, are not trading self sufficiently.

THAT is the concept. Tools will argue over prose all day long but clearly the concept and principle eludes you.

I am sorry but since I have to point this out YOU are not someone I would respect as a person who can observe, read, think and understand.

Have Fun.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #2,492
  • Jul 27, 2021 9:05pm Jul 27, 2021 9:05pm
Quoting Viktory
{quote} "You will point it out again"? Many other members have been pointing it out much before you appeared In posts like this one, you just say the obvious; nothing new... and explained in a sub-par way.


I was just trying to keep it simple for Bilal. I'm sure that person will figure out what you seem to make excuses for.

The other thing for you to appreciate is this - you only have a 'modern day mind' so you treasure "information" over stronger and deeper elements. I'll choose my way over yours ANY DAY. Thank you.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #2,493
  • Jul 27, 2021 9:06pm Jul 27, 2021 9:06pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} Another one that doesn't understand context before literary prose. Those who are constantly 'on the hook' re: paid data and don't do MORE with it while they have it (!!!), than just create a day job for themselves, are not trading self sufficiently. THAT is the concept. Tools will argue over prose all day long but clearly the concept and principle eludes you. I am sorry but since I have to point this out YOU are not someone I would respect as a person who can observe, read, think and understand. Have Fun. Peter
Dude, JFYI, most traders who pay for such data, do it for a reason: doing something more than just watching it: using it to their advantage.

And you have also stated many times that you help yourself with external tools, both public and personalized...
  • #2,494
  • Jul 27, 2021 9:11pm Jul 27, 2021 9:11pm
Quoting Viktory
{quote} Dude, JFYI, most traders who pay for such data, do it for a reason: doing something more than just watching it: using it to their advantage. And you have also stated many times that you help yourself with external tools, both public and personalized...

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Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #2,495
  • Jul 27, 2021 9:13pm Jul 27, 2021 9:13pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Intraday Liquidity is everywhere from 1M chart and onwards, i am struggling at the moment to measure it with tick volume, and end up in wrong trades perhaps i need futures data to get the spots.
Hi bilal

If you are interested, jump into my own discord server one day and I can run over the live markets with you for a couple of hours during a active London session.
We can study retail trades (Cumulative Delta), we can study liquidity manipulation (DOM), we can watch imbalance figures come through on the footprint chart and lastly attempt to determine the big players intentions.

We need to establish whether the big players are performing one of these tasks.
1.. Feeding Retail traders and smaller institutions.
2.. Withdrawing liquidity to imbalance the order book.
3.. Create order blocks to prevent price movement which destabilises the order book.
4.. No interest in the market whatsoever.

I feel we trade with a similar mindset, data can bridge that gap.
You can make your own mind up then, but not for a month or two as I have other commitments.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #2,496
  • Jul 27, 2021 9:19pm Jul 27, 2021 9:19pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} Another one that doesn't understand context before literary prose. Those who are constantly 'on the hook' re: paid data and don't do MORE with it while they have it (!!!), than just create a day job for themselves, are not trading self sufficiently. THAT is the concept. Tools will argue over prose all day long but clearly the concept and principle eludes you. I am sorry but since I have to point this out YOU are not someone I would respect as a person who can observe, read, think and understand. Have Fun. Peter
I pulled a standalone quote and re-posted it here, to give context to your most recent comment. Context is something that is fixed, not variable, as you tend to do. You are nothing more than a liar, and your ever changing context underscores this fact. For the record, your new "context" is that people who pay for data are not self sufficient, and somehow, you know that they are not doing more or enough with this data, and therefore feel obligated and justified to demean them and their trading style. That's just you being "real".
  • #2,497
  • Jul 27, 2021 9:19pm Jul 27, 2021 9:19pm
Quoting Viktory
{quote} Dude, JFYI, most traders who pay for such data, do it for a reason: doing something more than just watching it: using it to their advantage. And you have also stated many times that you help yourself with external tools, both public and personalized...



The difference between your thinking and mine is this -

YOU - I can access it now and so I will use it.

ME - I can access it but how far up the chain does it reach? This indicates its efficacy and its feasible use - short and long term.

What I use is my concern. How I use them is also my concern. If you are so shortsighted to believe there is only 1 way to use something you should just get a job at McDonalds and accept their "training".

I learned a long time ago that some things just are and some things you need to dig for. Bad luck if you don't believe that or me. If all your data access is nulled out, where will you be re: trading? Up a creek without a paddle. Where will someone like me be standing? In a clearing somewhere away from the floodplain.

Have Fun.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #2,498
  • Jul 27, 2021 9:19pm Jul 27, 2021 9:19pm
Quoting Viktory
{quote} You clearly didn't understand the totality of my message, nor the philosophy behind. Also, I suggest you to study a little more in depth about neuroscience ;-) [EDIT]: And besides all that: - You are talking about ME as if you know me; how pretentious. - You're basically saying that there's "nothing fascinating" with science & technology R&D; how sad. You're so confused about some concepts. Better keep living in your fantasy world... Cheers!
Not confused at all. I've been watching confused children play pretend since I was one.

The only fascinating part about watching children learn about science and technology when you've understood molecular physics since adolescence is why it takes them decades longer than some of the other children. Usually it's because they incompetently chose their role-models.

I, personally, thought Einstein's special relativity was simple and obvious. But that's only because, relatively, I was self-aware decades before most children. So, of course it was obvious to me.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,499
  • Jul 27, 2021 9:27pm Jul 27, 2021 9:27pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} The difference between your thinking and mine is this - YOU - I can access it now and so I will use it. ME - I can access it but how far up the chain does it reach? This indicates its efficacy and its feasible use - short and long term. What I use is my concern. How I use them is also my concern. If you are so shortsighted to believe there is only 1 way to use something you should just get a job at McDonalds and accept their "training". I learned a long time ago that some things just are and some things you need to dig for. Bad luck if you...
Well, yeah; same as what other traders use is also their concern. Right? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
But you're always interfering or trying to, like wanting to impose your own world view.

* And many other members have been saying (also before you; me included), that there are many ways and "scales" to interpret the markets, execute trades and manage equity-balance.

It also seems that you only know how to read your own words...
  • #2,500
  • Jul 27, 2021 9:34pm Jul 27, 2021 9:34pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Not confused at all. I've been watching confused children play pretend since I was one. The only fascinating part about watching children learn about science and technology when you've understood molecular physics since adolescence is why it takes them decades longer than some of the other children. Usually it's because they incompetently chose their role-models. I, personally, thought Einstein's special relativity was simple and obvious. But that's only because, relatively, I was self-aware decades before most children. So, of course it...
Of course; there are many different kinds of children/adults in the world, for different kind of reasons, with many variables involved in the infinite "nature+nurture" universe of possibilities, from an endless combination of deterministic & random factors, continuously happening all the time; past, present and future...
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