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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #2,461
  • Jul 27, 2021 5:12am Jul 27, 2021 5:12am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Hi FX-Petra! Thank you for your story! It is possible to be profitable with long-term for sure. No questions. But. It is also possible to be profitable with short-term, scalping, algo trading. I have read and saw a lot of stories about trading. They are all the same. There are no successful scalping stories ever. Every story has the same scenario: started with scalping, failed, moved to long-term. Also there are exactly the same scenarios about algo trading: tried, failed, returned to manual trading. And then there are always a lot of excuses...
lol.
I was just the other way around, I started trading long term, but I wasn’t happy. because I did not feel my style and my long-term analyzes were not reliable.
now i trade inside the d1 candle.
and I made the right decision when I chose this style.
  • #2,462
  • Jul 27, 2021 6:31am Jul 27, 2021 6:31am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Hi FX-Petra! Thank you for your story! It is possible to be profitable with long-term for sure. No questions. But. It is also possible to be profitable with short-term, scalping, algo trading. I have read and saw a lot of stories about trading. They are all the same. There are no successful scalping stories ever. Every story has the same scenario: started with scalping, failed, moved to long-term. Also there are exactly the same scenarios about algo trading: tried, failed, returned to manual trading. And then there are always a lot of excuses...
Hi ryuryu

I think the problem with retail traders attempting to trade EA's is they optimize them on shocking bad combination of manipulated data and faulting testing platforms.
The best method I have come accross is to download raw data off a CTrader platform from your broker straight onto a custom build Excel sheet.
Here you can build your own testing parameters that can be verified by yourself as accurate, providing meanilful test results that may just give you a chance of success.

But those dreaded optimized runs you have to do to get possible profitable results will destroy your dreams of making it in the Algo trading world.
That's because good Algo traders have NO LIFE, they may as well marry their office full of 5 computers busy testing away all day / night / week / month.

On the other hand, you may be the one to do it
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #2,463
  • Jul 27, 2021 7:14am Jul 27, 2021 7:14am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} We shall see. Peter
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} Ya, 4 hours later then continue the left side story
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: K3QWaNB.png Size: 32 KB


After 3 hours, will leave the last hour for you to update the left side story.

btw I removed the rectangles and FIBO it might anger somebody.
  • #2,464
  • Jul 27, 2021 9:40am Jul 27, 2021 9:40am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Why most fail? Because if we will check the statistics the vast majority of traders are part-time "after main job" traders. Scalping is not for them in any case. For the same reason they have no time, no money, no skills for development.
Hi Ryu

How are you i was back from my job and saw your post thought i should motivate other part time scalpers, who want to develop their skills.

I am sure you will help, guide and motivate others like Rick does!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: da09d635c0c8fa4a91a4afab9afb77ba.png Size: 107 KB
"Exchange of hands"
  • #2,465
  • Jul 27, 2021 9:53am Jul 27, 2021 9:53am
Quoting PeterCaleb
Quoting PeterCaleb For most of you 'brought up' on mt4 and 5 and the like, I will show you what I mean in a format you are familiar with here ..... {image} Here and now, you can make whatever assessment (or judgment) you like about what is shown in this picture. IT IS FOR YOU. Not me. SO have at it. But remember, the more you judge the less you observe and learn and THINK. ........ Value and Ratings. Peter Quoting Bilal1947 {quote} =========================================...
Hi Peter

I knew your chart has alot of details and for sure if you dont explain i may not have a clue about it, i like that you have a setup like Rick using futures data and on top the deviation of Gbp vs Eur, for me it get difficult when they move apart to figure out which one going to follow the other, and on top the interest paid aspect was above my head to be frank as interest are paid monthly/quarterly. Any way thanks for taking time out writing the post.

regards
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #2,466
  • Jul 27, 2021 9:56am Jul 27, 2021 9:56am
Quoting RickM
No spread markets that have light volume zones due to order book imbalances - WE HAVE NEVER HAD IT SO GOOD {image}
Intraday Liquidity is everywhere from 1M chart and onwards, i am struggling at the moment to measure it with tick volume, and end up in wrong trades

perhaps i need futures data to get the spots.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #2,467
  • Jul 27, 2021 10:04am Jul 27, 2021 10:04am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Intraday Liquidity is everywhere from 1M chart and onwards, i am struggling at the moment to measure it with tick volume, and end up in wrong trades perhaps i need futures data to get the spots.
FX is a decentralized market, meaning that counterparties trade between themselves, not on an exchange such as the NYSE. As such, to get a reliable volume indicator you'd have to get every major ECN and brokerage firm of the world over to publish their volume in a standardized format. Volume is used most often in stock trading, where it shows the number of shares that are being traded. Each market or exchange will track its own volume and distribute the data to traders.

There is no volume reported for currency trading because there is no central clearing of fx trades.
  • #2,468
  • Jul 27, 2021 10:49am Jul 27, 2021 10:49am
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} {quote} {image} After 3 hours, will leave the last hour for you to update the left side story. btw I removed the rectangles and FIBO it might anger somebody.
LOL...my charts on the G$ and E$ still have fibo's on them, which I know will enrage a few folks here. But the results on both pairs has been outstanding. Hope you got your share, too. I'm hanging in on two trades in the G$ but have exited my E$ trades. Good trading everyone!
  • #2,469
  • Jul 27, 2021 10:53am Jul 27, 2021 10:53am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Intraday Liquidity is everywhere from 1M chart and onwards, i am struggling at the moment to measure it with tick volume, and end up in wrong trades perhaps i need futures data to get the spots.
strategies, ideas come and go.
but eventually there will be a solution.
just never give up.
  • #2,470
  • Jul 27, 2021 11:24am Jul 27, 2021 11:24am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi Ryu How are you i was back from my job and saw your post thought i should motivate other part time scalpers, who want to develop their skills. I am sure you will help, guide and motivate others like Rick does! {image}
Hi bilal1947! Fine, thanks. You?

More motivated part-time scalpers = more winning trades for me. So please don't stop
Observer effect
  • #2,471
  • Jul 27, 2021 11:28am Jul 27, 2021 11:28am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Hi bilal1947! Fine, thanks. You? More motivated part-time scalpers = more winning trades for me. So please don't stop
Good too, thanks
"Exchange of hands"
  • #2,472
  • Edited 2:27pm Jul 27, 2021 1:21pm | Edited 2:27pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
Quoting PeterCaleb For most of you 'brought up' on mt4 and 5 and the like, I will show you what I mean in a format you are familiar with here ..... {image} Here and now, you can make whatever assessment (or judgment) you like about what is shown in this picture. IT IS FOR YOU. Not me. SO have at it. But remember, the more you judge the less you observe and learn and THINK. ........ Value and Ratings. Peter Quoting Bilal1947 {quote} =========================================...
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi Peter I knew your chart has alot of details and for sure if you dont explain i may not have a clue about it, i like that you have a setup like Rick using futures data and on top the deviation of Gbp vs Eur, for me it get difficult when they move apart to figure out which one going to follow the other, and on top the interest paid aspect was above my head to be frank as interest are paid monthly/quarterly. Any way thanks for taking time out writing the post. regards bilal
Don't you see the contradiction? Peter was bashing Rick's and others "reliance" on external sources of information (like Futures Data) in order to make quicker and better informed trading decisions; but now, after staying quite for a while, he finally mentions using it, LOL

* [EDIT]: ... after staying "quiet"...
  • #2,473
  • Jul 27, 2021 2:00pm Jul 27, 2021 2:00pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Hi bilal1947! Fine, thanks. You? More motivated part-time scalpers = more winning trades for me. So please don't stop
same here as billaei, part time scalper.

no pun intended and no disrespect and also no intention of advertising.
i have an entire thread devoted to my style of trading (as others do)

i am a purelly technical trader and i use naked charts (yes, absolutly naked) and i dont give a damn about news.

below you can see my last 10 days of projections and results on HTF (4hrs ++) (i made a summury)
if you need more confirmation that retail traders can win, i challenge you to read the entire thread.

ps. no disrespect to any other system out there. everything respected, and if it works DO NOT CHANGE IT. i do not disregard anything, this is simply what works best for me. thats all.

wish you guys all to stay on the green side.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post13644434
offering my system to copy trade. check my link
  • #2,474
  • Jul 27, 2021 2:17pm Jul 27, 2021 2:17pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} That is a big topic to discuss. We are talking about volume in forex trading. Which is not reliable and can't be used in forex trading. It will give you negative results. With forex, you look at supply/demand on charts, and use fundamentals analysis and make sure that matches with supply/demand on the chart. Once that confirms, either buy/sell you add positions and keep adding, until something happens in fundamentals the numbers are no longer good and that is where you take the profit or you take the profit when it reaches the supply zone...
Yes, that's one way of doing it; not the only one.

And we're not talking about "forex -tick- volume", but centralized volume & liquidity data from all the centralizedly traded contracts, while also seeing some passive ones [which of course can change to become misleading]; utilized for very short-term trading (not swinging like you), even if it's "only" from a couple of small exchanges (compared to the total flow of central & commercial banks).

Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Intraday Liquidity is everywhere from 1M chart and onwards, i am struggling at the moment to measure it with tick volume, and end up in wrong trades perhaps i need futures data to get the spots.
As it has been already stated and clarified many times, since years ago, tick-"volume" information is very lacking compared to Futures real volume, specially for scalping fast few-ticks/pips moves.

Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} FX is a decentralized market, meaning that counterparties trade between themselves, not on an exchange such as the NYSE. As such, to get a reliable volume indicator you'd have to get every major ECN and brokerage firm of the world over to publish their volume in a standardized format. Volume is used most often in stock trading, where it shows the number of shares that are being traded. Each market or exchange will track its own volume and distribute the data to traders. There is no volume reported for currency trading because there is no...
Yes, some of us totally understand that. But it's also a fact that FX Spot (CFDs being derivatives just "following" it) and Currency Futures "price action", move perfectly in sync (although, with better and more stable spreads, REAL limit orders [if you, people, know how they are], and less slippage), so their proportional order flow, deltas and profiles, should be at least pretty similar to the hypothetical "aggregated" (if we could take it from most OTC & ECN networks) from the major Currency Pairs.

In the past, I also thought that Futures volume data wasn't representative from/for FX, but Rick and others have already proven to some (whoever who want's to actually see) that, in fact, IT IS. Moreover, that style of trading also utilizes real-time liquidity flow.

And I bet more than one will criticize me, openly or at least in their minds, with some foolishness like "cult following" or whatever...
  • #2,475
  • Jul 27, 2021 2:46pm Jul 27, 2021 2:46pm
Quoting Viktory
In the past, I also thought that Futures volume data wasn't representative from/for FX, but Rick and others have already proven to some (whoever who want's to actually see) that, in fact, IT IS. Moreover, that style of trading also utilizes real-time liquidity flow.
Quoting RickM
25% of those trades were attacking the market, 75% of those trades were defending my positions.
it seems to me only 25% correlation then.. 75% trades involved in averaging... 25% was correct entries without averaging to exit wrong entries.
  • #2,476
  • Jul 27, 2021 3:20pm Jul 27, 2021 3:20pm
Quoting gepards
{quote} {quote} it seems to me only 25% correlation then.. 75% trades involved in averaging... 25% was correct entries without averaging to exit wrong entries.
Gee. Haven't you read the rest of what he has written? Why so selective with that part only? I don't think I need to find the rest for you...

There, he isn't talking about the percentage of "FIFO" won closed positions, but the more significant/profitable ones (whether it's because of bigger volume traded, or more ticks/pips obtained from a faster-"longer" price move); decisions derived from the quality of the "setups" (price & order flow reaction in real-time), compared to the rest of the transactions (many average small wins and a few [around 20-25%] losses; information also stated).

Also, obviously, his text here isn't any "proof". You should SEE IT working with your eyes; of course not him {in case there's any further doubt}, but the actual market with a proper software platform.
  • #2,477
  • Jul 27, 2021 5:00pm Jul 27, 2021 5:00pm
many see the solution in IT.
though, there are much simpler approaches that work.
  • #2,478
  • Jul 27, 2021 6:16pm Jul 27, 2021 6:16pm
Quoting tiborf71
many see the solution in IT. though, there are much simpler approaches that work.
Brute Force isn't much of a solution; wildly shoot enough bullets and eventually some will hit the target by crap luck

Networked matrices aren't exclusive to IT. Iterated Round-Robin tournaments have been around for much longer than the field of IT. E = MC^2 is certainly the simplest approach but, realistically, the only people that are actually competent enough to understand how were the ones that chose to be geniuses as children.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,479
  • Jul 27, 2021 6:37pm Jul 27, 2021 6:37pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Brute Force isn't much of a solution; wildly shoot enough bullets and eventually some will hit the target by crap luck Networked matrices aren't exclusive to IT. Iterated Round-Robin tournaments have been around for much longer than the field of IT. E = MC^2 is certainly the simplest approach but, realistically, the only people that are actually competent enough to understand how were the ones that chose to be geniuses as children.
Nowadays, there's much more than just "brute force". Have you read about Super Computation, Parallel Processing, Neural Networks, Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning (from specialized software AND now also hardware) and Data Science? And from here to 2035 approx, Quantum Computing + further advances in A.I. will change EVERYTHING.

And no one chooses to be born with X or Y I.Q or logical-mathematical "genius-level" intellect. That's mostly genetics; and not losing because "nurture". In fact, you don't need to be a "genius" to succeed in those areas, but maybe a little bit "brilliant", or at least very smart and well prepared... and they have whole interdisciplinary teams of brains like that, plus millions of dollars in infrastructure and the best data available.
  • #2,480
  • Jul 27, 2021 6:55pm Jul 27, 2021 6:55pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} it is impossible to imagine that guy who is spending hundreds and thousands will share his developments fo free.
Long, long time ago when I first landed on FF I was attracted to this thread - Quantum London Trading. I opened an account with my life saving. For the first 5 months it works like charm. Then ....

Quoting ryuryu
{quote} For free you can find fibonacci or rectangles drawings only.
One thing I learned in trading humbled and learn from others who post useful concepts. It is by incorporating the concepts of others (ok minus Peter C.) that I formulate my own.

Quoting ryuryu
{quote} it is impossible to imagine that guy who is spending hundreds and thousands will share his developments fo free.
I not so sure this guy had spend hundreds and thousands but he left FF with a gift for GBPUSD. I chanced upon his thread (now in the rubbish bin) when I was trying to resolve the puzzle George posted and the big hoo-ha of the use of TMA. He did not answer many questions about how to use the indicators, he only said put it on the chart and observed. It was the way he used fractal.

failinforex should be using the same fractal concept.
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