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The brutal truth of day trading

Quoting scherzi
{quote} Sure, name a few if you can, pls. There is something that I can see on SP500 and Nasdaq and it is the extremely parabolic ascending move. For me it is a sign that a possible retracement may be in preparation. Markets are speculative and the supply will eventually be exhausted, requiring an accumulative program that precises a decrease in price. Supply understood as the selloff of the assets bought in the past that are now being sold as the indices rise. What do you think about that? I mean, I studied Economy and have also a master in advanced...
ISM for the broader market. COT for forex. That should get you started.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} all the Olympians are cursing that the Yen is so strong and they cannot afford to pay a visit to Shinjuku Kabukicho. The japan tourism promotion board is asking BOJ to ease the Yen so that the Olympians can go ease themselves.



One word - co-factors.
Real Trading is not gambling.
This topic was discussed at length here: Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

I must agree, as I wrote back then, that daytrading forex (opening and closing a position within 24 hours) is an exercise in negative expectancy. However, you can make profits in forex as a day/swing trader. It is really all about finding a reliable method to trade with. Of course, patience and money management play a large roll as well.... but for me, at least, the latter 2 were a lot easier to come by. Finding a method that I could really rely on to produce enough winners was my big hold up. And it was a very, very, big hold up. Years of frustration. Thank God I finally found mine. I have been trading profitably for 3 years now, and supporting my family for 2 years with my forex trading profits. Even if it all goes away tomorrow, I have the satisfaction of knowing that forex can be traded successfully. That knowledge is almost as enjoyable as the money (but not quite)! I hope all you guys and gals find your method. Keep working at it! Its out there!

Kind Regards
Quoting PeterCaleb
For most of you 'brought up' on mt4 and 5 and the like, I will show you what I mean in a format you are familiar with here ..... {image} Here and now, you can make whatever assessment (or judgment) you like about what is shown in this picture. IT IS FOR YOU. Not me. SO have at it. But remember, the more you judge the less you observe and learn and THINK. ........ Value and Ratings. Peter

Quoting Bilal1947
[quote=attached my M5 GBPUSD chart showing three trades: if you can mention some annotation on your chart would be more useful though i know why i first sell at premium prices (taken major profits) and buy at discount prices and again sell and all in my favor. {image}[/quote]

=========================================


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Interest comes in and then it recedes. Premium vs discount eg. needs to have a why. The below chart that I posted looks messy or complicated etc, but I showed it because it has layers of detail. The dark blue line is a monitored average, not a 'just do what you're programmed to do' kind. Perhaps similar to a VWAP (a real one) but it uses data that is not forex broker based. It is based on the derivations that always come from Futures data combined with a GBP 'divided by' EUR index addition. I have found that 'a market' is stale at times and needs a 'self-regenerating' motivator. There are times in Futures when things just slow right down to a grind. Happens in FX and stocks etc too. Each red and blue horizontal line represents "interest paid" levels. In the early days we had to work from levels of 'interest' and price reconstitution levels etc, now in FX eg. we just have a standard swap rollover per day. The angled white lines are desired movement and the horizontal white line is where my retractable deadman's stop ended up before my calculation hedge was closed. There's also a counter move order placed earlier on, with white line intersecting it. Needed it at/near 'edge of interest' to refer focus for a possible deep reversal or breakout decision. But the deep dip n wedge offered great ROI and with little resistance along with its final higher internal tail (both on chart and on derivation indicators below) it was good to go. You see. I really don't do anything the same way most people do it. Been that way for a long time. Now for those indicators below the price chart. Seeing as people think that FX is a black hole I won't bother trying to engage with trying to convince them. If they believe rather than know then that's their future challenge to face. Finally the chart I showed is a 'search and recover' chart. This means that it CAN be a bit messy as I don't trade on it.

Now to your chart. For whatever reason you let your first sell run too long. You need to learn what is called an edging gate. Eg - market moves high and higher with medium to large 'push intervals' or perhaps dribbles up etc using smaller bars. Now think of a gate. Usually it only moves from closed/locked position out to its axis finale where it is stopped by something and is always set to a fixed hinge. Can you visualize this? Keep this in mind.

While lots of people argue over pretty silly things re: entry and exit etc, a preset for your trade must be observing that consideration phase. You see it on 1M and 5M when push turns into something more gentle or 'different'. Refer to the 2 peaks straight after your first sell. This is where "auction market theory" and all its derivations and all these 'modern theories' are BS and really rather ridiculous. Auction by nature are a 'transcendent organism'. Meaning that either you have upward climbing minimum and max. personally influenced reserves or you have an inverted auction, where you are seeking the best option within certain time restraints. But usually you cannot have both in one situation. Right there on your chart (and mine) ARE both. And so, the peak where your first sell was inputted then observed two smaller peaks then a small cascade then smaller peaks then the final run-off. Now place the why factor overhead.

Some people around have rather strange beliefs about how some things work. Some say that a spike/wick is just the spread widening. Others say that a bar means this or that. You have to imagine that everyone and thing that sees that chart, 'sees IT' but does not process scenarios the same way.

Your buy is in a good position. Then past the solid black line and larger period, look for final push and position buys for counterparty trade for what THEN becomes your second sell at right edge of chart there. If people don't "like" what I'm saying here, tough. If Bilal has 'good reason/s' to position there for a sell AND it is NOT a reactive trade decision, then it stands to reason that it is therefore - pre-planned/pre-determined within his approach. If it is so, then a little extra planning will amplify profitability, (at the VERY least maintain probability) and reduce risk, factoring in what is 'overhead' - others' why.

Peter


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Real Trading is not gambling.
Quoting FX-Petra
This topic was discussed at length here: Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy I must agree, as I wrote back then, that daytrading forex (opening and closing a position within 24 hours) is an exercise in negative expectancy. However, you can make profits in forex as a day/swing trader. It is really all about finding a reliable method to trade with. Of course, patience and money management play a large roll as well.... but for me, at least,...
Hi FX Petra

Great story and thanks for sharing it.
Hope you continue your trading story for years to come.

You talk about expensive trading costs but I don’t see it. Trading costs are very cheap these days with cheap leverage and spreads on my primary market I trade which is EURUSD- are zero or just 0.1. Therefore short positions actually make more sense.
We can get in with strong momentum and be out before news hits - that’s a great advantage in my eyes. We can make good money even with 1 pip trades if the need arises.

I also think there is one area retail day traders traders can totally destroy big players and there is nothing they can do about this.
If we trade liquidity imbalances, we can trade against their positions using quick trades to out manoeuvre their large positions. If they go large, they clean the deck of the order books and the only players are small enough to feed off light liquidity still present is retail traders.
We can feed off the crumbs left and they can’t fight us.
Why wouldn’t you want to day trade and take easy pips of big fat cows who can’t turn back to suck the milk spilled on the ground as they left.

cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
No spread markets that have light volume zones due to order book imbalances -

WE HAVE NEVER HAD IT SO GOOD
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting PeterCaleb
WOW ! There's a lot of mutton heads in this world. {image} {image}
a lot of them are on this thread peter , keep it simple
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} I do not know what "daily trader" is. However, I hold my positions from one day up to about three months. It all depends on the fundamentals and supply/demand confirmation.
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
Quoting PeterCaleb
Quoting PeterCaleb For most of you 'brought up' on mt4 and 5 and the like, I will show you what I mean
you mean 1.38033
Quoting PeterCaleb
Quoting PeterCaleb For most of you 'brought up' on mt4 and 5 and the like, I will show you what I mean
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} you mean 1.38033
I mean 1.38033 is my take profit from Asian high - 20 pips.
Quoting PeterCaleb
Quoting PeterCaleb For most of you 'brought up' on mt4 and 5 and the like, I will show you what I mean
Do you mean that it did not occurred to you to SELL HK50 - the stock crash in china because of private tuition industry, read some news, don't put out meaningless picture and charts.

HK50 free money
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} Do you mean that it did not occurred to you to SELL HK50 - the stock crash in china because of private tuition industry, read some news, don't put out meaningless picture and charts. HK50 free money


If you say so.
Real Trading is not gambling.
The GBPUSD today ....


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And then ....

Attached Image

.... So why does the bottom half of this picture look so familiar?
Real Trading is not gambling.
Quoting PeterCaleb
The GBPUSD today .... And then ....
And then carry on the right side, what's going to happen
GBPUSD - We're heading to
B4N
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 24.07.2021.png Size: 78 KB
Quoting Ihlas
GBPUSD - We're heading to B4N {image}


We shall see.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
@ Aussi ...... you said keep it simple.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} We shall see. Peter
Ya, 4 hours later then continue the left side story
Quoting FX-Petra
This topic was discussed at length here: Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy I must agree, as I wrote back then, that daytrading forex (opening and closing a position within 24 hours) is an exercise in negative expectancy. However, you can make profits in forex as a day/swing trader. It is really all about finding a reliable method to trade with. Of course, patience and money management play a large roll as well.... but for me, at least,...
Hi FX-Petra!
Thank you for your story! It is possible to be profitable with long-term for sure. No questions.

But. It is also possible to be profitable with short-term, scalping, algo trading.

I have read and saw a lot of stories about trading. They are all the same. There are no successful scalping stories ever. Every story has the same scenario: started with scalping, failed, moved to long-term. Also there are exactly the same scenarios about algo trading: tried, failed, returned to manual trading. And then there are always a lot of excuses why it didn't work.

And I found it very interesting. Where do the high frequency trading firms come from then? And why there are no successful algo/scalping stories? I think the answer in that it is very expensive to create real working algo. It is a real job to scalp every day. And if you earn from that kind of trading you will not / and just can't share your experience. Even if you will there are just no trader to follow you. By the other hand it is impossible to imagine that guy who is spending hundreds and thousands will share his developments fo free. For free you can find fibonacci or rectangles drawings only.

Why most fail? Because if we will check the statistics the vast majority of traders are part-time "after main job" traders. Scalping is not for them in any case. For the same reason they have no time, no money, no skills for development. All they can is to download another one martingale grid ea from forexfactory. Or buy ea/signal from mql service.

So I think the reason if that simple. It is just very complicated and much more expensive (time and money).
Observer effect
Quoting Aussi
{quote}a lot of them are on this thread peter , keep it simple
indeed...and you were missing somehow...but it is solved now
On ignore list of scammers, deceivers and low IQ individuals. Exclusively
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