Disliked{quote} Price always does one of two thing. goes up or down. there arent' very many dojis on a daily chart. this was one of crucialpoint's infamous lines from his buried thread and we all wonder why that thread got buried....anyhow... the only thing that really changes with different markets is volatility. Most trend trading strategies need some sort of volatility assuming one isn't trading a range bound market which i don't really see a point in for a day trader. also day trading in the US has tax advantages vs swing trading. if you use the IRS...Ignored
For instance, mathematically speaking, there is a 3% of probability of getting seven candles of the same color on a row. When you verify and run a test over 1000 daily candles, you see that in practice, these probabilistic rules apply and that it is true. It applies to any timeframe in any case.
This fact could lead one person to think that buying after six negative candles using 1:1 RRR could be profitable in the long-term. In practice, it is not; because markets are ruled by forces that act over more features other than just directionality and volatility. Maybe using 1:2? nope. Maybe 2:1? Nope. Maybe using dynamic lot sizing? no no no.
People sometimes will think the "bearish" candle are "hot". This is incorrect, people thinks that in roulette, for instance. It is incorrect but, if you filp your trade. It won't work either by selling/buying "hot" markets.
And this implies that the problem of trading is more complex than studying deltas, thetas, vegas and dojis (for me at least). We need to add layers and a context, a story behind what is going on. And that our story matches the facts in the long-term and vice-versa.
And I think we have to work on our creative side by researching, listening to others and practicing. Even when one is sharing stuff new ideas may come into your mind.
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