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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #2,061
  • Jul 18, 2021 7:44am Jul 18, 2021 7:44am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} You are wrong. I'm trading with RickM every day @ discord group. I never saw him selling or promoting..
Just to confirm that RickM sells absolutely nothing.

He often posts unsolicited charts with detailed explanations of his trade calls in real time.

In the last year he hasn't changed his way of trading, instead he has improved it thanks to the introduction of delta, volume, cumulative delta, DOM and bid/ask imbalances brought to the discord channel by another trader named Andrew who I don't think is even registered in FF.

Then in the end one can think what he wants, but these have been the facts of every day for more than a year.
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #2,062
  • Jul 18, 2021 8:23am Jul 18, 2021 8:23am
Quoting joyny
{quote} Not all brokers. Scammers yes - they need 2 traders, their "consultants" for trader A tell "SELL" for trader B the same time the same symbol tell "BUY". With "all in". One of the traders loses all, but another wins huge. Then for that "winner" their "consultants" say "See how we made you a fortune - add more money will move you to our elite consultant which trades most lucrative deals". But for looser - they put that in black marketing were advertised "another consultant, another broker" who will be fair and "will fight back your money"......
Yes, I understand your point.

One question I repeat to myself is if cfd brokers that cover a huge portion of the retail trading; if they offset their clients positions in real markets or not.

For instance, one of the most important cfd brokers used by thousands of traders clearly states on their terms the "inherent conflic of interests between their client and them" as a risk. Probably that is why, actually, one needs to eventually move to prime brokerage that, as you pointed out, do not incur in that kind of conflict of interest.

Going back to the account statement question, there is a limit, a border that words cannot overcome. Now think that the best trader in the entire world writes a paper explaining his or her views. Now you take an anonymous person and let that person read in public that paper.

Which would be the difference between the speech if read by the best trader itself and the same speech read by that anonymous person?

It is legit to require some kind of proof before believing. I am atheist and I do not like the decision that those who believe in religions made without a sufficient (for me) proof. I mean, I get your point and understand your concerns.

There is kind of a workaround, a heuristic way of analysis. You can check on a chart if a particular statement is true or not. Or you can write code for doing it if you know how to. I personally like using trading simulators (not paper trading, but trading simulation) for discretionary trading. MT5 has kind features for prototyping as well. Using Python is really easy to backtest data as well.

See this EA I am writting, it is obvious I need to control that drawdown. It won't survive for so long. I do not mind if the root ideas behind that EA come from a succesful trader or not. The long-term results over multiple markets cannot be discussed. There is no opinion there, just numbers.

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Why am I showing you this?

Because if you decide that the work of testing and verifying and getting the proof is all on you, then you do not mind if the person in front of you is a chatterbox or not. You don't know if the person was right and made 1 million dollar just because that person bought on an uptrend and nothing else.

When you are trying to check on others, you will have to do 2 tasks:
1 - Verifying that person.
2 - Verifying the strategy.

If you ignore the person when he or she is reasonable, you have less work to do.

Then, if the person seems more or less mentally sane, what I do is just focus on the trading aspect of my problem and forget about the person. Maybe the person is a thief but maybe that person is using a legit system as a cover and you can find the original source if you forget about the person.

Another last thing is that good techniques are quite obvious once you learn them. If someone tells you something and you cannot find it on your charts, then it is simply a lie.

Ok, I think I have written too much.

See you.
  • #2,063
  • Jul 18, 2021 8:34am Jul 18, 2021 8:34am
Quoting ryuryu
So I don't know why you all are attacking RickM, because he is the only person here (for me) who I can ask real question about trading and get the balanced correct answer.
ryuryu i respect you. therefore ok I admit I did an offensive post regarding RickM. I am guilty.

RickM you are a good person.

My bad.

Thank you all who wrote good points regarding RickM... I appreciate and you opened my eyes. My ego was blinded me.

I will quit FF for some weeks and calm down.
  • #2,064
  • Jul 18, 2021 9:05am Jul 18, 2021 9:05am
Quoting RickM
{quote} How many do you want to see {image}
Good morning RickyM, where can I find OrderFlow with Real Volume for Forex in Metatrader? Thanks greetings!
  • #2,065
  • Jul 18, 2021 9:12am Jul 18, 2021 9:12am
Quoting EduardoCFD
{quote} Good morning RickyM, where can I find OrderFlow with Real Volume for Forex in Metatrader? Thanks greetings!
FX is a decentralized market, meaning that counterparties trade between themselves, not on an exchange such as the NYSE. As such, to get a reliable volume indicator you'd have to get every major ECN and brokerage firm of the world over to publish their volume in a standardized format. Volume is used most often in stock trading, where it shows the number of shares that are being traded. Each market or exchange will track its own volume and distribute the data to traders.

There is no volume reported for currency trading because there is no central clearing of fx trades.
  • #2,066
  • Jul 18, 2021 9:15am Jul 18, 2021 9:15am
PeterCaleb series
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  • #2,067
  • Edited 10:08am Jul 18, 2021 9:27am | Edited 10:08am
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  • #2,068
  • Jul 18, 2021 9:31am Jul 18, 2021 9:31am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} FX is a decentralized market, meaning that counterparties trade between themselves, not on an exchange such as the NYSE. As such, to get a reliable volume indicator you'd have to get every major ECN and brokerage firm of the world over to publish their volume in a standardized format. Volume is used most often in stock trading, where it shows the number of shares that are being traded. Each market or exchange will track its own volume and distribute the data to traders. There is no volume reported for currency trading because there is no...
Hi Techanalyst

Don't let the wolfs blind you from seeing the truth.

An accurate reflection of volume is available for US pairs - All we need is vision to understand what the data means then execute its message.

Hope you have a great trading week
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #2,069
  • Jul 18, 2021 9:32am Jul 18, 2021 9:32am
Just imagine this is not an EA, but a trader using the same strategy on two different markets:

Results on GBPUSD.
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Results on EURUSD.
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Same configuration. Every parameter is relative to the market, no absolute values for this specific program. It should adapt to market changes. Different symbol only.

It is worthless to show a balance or how was my last week or month. Doing exactly the same one loses and the other wins. The difference was the market not the quality of the strategy that was, as shown, very deficient, a ver bad EA so far.
  • #2,070
  • Jul 18, 2021 9:55am Jul 18, 2021 9:55am
Quoting joyny
I will quit FF for some weeks and calm down.
I join you quit FF, I have to focus on a personal project come Monday.
I'll read as usual but not sure if I'll post again.

Take care good people, the best wishes and may success follow you.
Know what you trade
  • #2,071
  • Jul 18, 2021 9:58am Jul 18, 2021 9:58am
There are some statements that everyone repeat day by day:

1. Always use Stop Loss.
2. Use at least 1:2 Risk Reward ratio.
3. Trade only long term, no day trading.
4. Do not study math, statistics, do not create algos. You brain is best indicator, draw lines, rectangles and use fibos only.
5. Learn to feel the market. This is the edge.
6. You will be profitable automatically after 10000 hours of trading.
7. We will reduce leverage and ban hedges to protect your capital (the funniest part).

So there is some very smart and wealthy guy sitting somewhere and he wants us what? To get rich? If we will follow the rules?
It is very strange. Especially the way that bullshit is forced. Doubts creep in about the veracity of these statements.

In the whole world people lie and betray and ready to kill you for 1$, but here on billion market only truth everywhere that we have to believe in?

Show me stats where SL works. Show me stats where 1:2 RR works. Show me comparison of 2 good traders: one day trader second long term to see the difference. And so on. I know the answer. These statements are stupid, it is pure lie. The only purpose to force them everywhere is to trap newbies and take their money. No other purpose.
Observer effect
  • #2,072
  • Edited 10:12am Jul 18, 2021 10:01am | Edited 10:12am
Quoting Techanalyst
{image}
There is a book, "A Practitioner's Guide to Asset Allocation", with foreword by Harry Markowitz.

I think it is one of the best books on porftolio management that revisits all these old theories. You can verify that asset allocation is not as important or that time does not reduce the overall risk ceteris paribus. They use maths to prove it, you do not need to believe in their sole words.

I think that a retail trader should only hold a few positions because the individual risk of each position is the same. The risk you incur in if you have 10 positions opened at the same time is exactly the same than if you open one unique consecutive position as the last one is closed. Therefore, having multiple positions opened does not reduce your risk.

If W are your chances of winning, winning 10 times on a row has a likelyhood of W¹⁰ no matter if you open 10 trades at a time or wait for each trade to be closed before opening the next one. Then, we can add the effects of compounding 10 consecutive times as you win and not doing it because you divided into 10 your position to obtain the same probability of winning without the benefits of compounding in the case you diversify your portfolio.

And for a retail trader, having multiple positions opened must increase the risk of losing because it is easier to commit a mistake when checking and verifying 10 postions per day due to fatigue and other external or internal factors than just having to check one that you perfectly understand and control.

It is not the same a professional working for a hedge fund supported by a team that John Doe after work being interrupted by 3 children crying and his wife angry because he is absent while he is trying to decide if the market is tradable or not.

So I think that for the retail trader it is better to manage a small portfolio. And considering that a trader expects duplicating the balance each year (otherwise we can talk about investors), I doubt it may be achieved with less than one trade per week at least expecting an average increase of your porftfolio of around 2-4%. Then you need to deduct the part you take to pay your bills, but we can ignore that part to simplify.

Just a few thoughts.
  • #2,073
  • Jul 18, 2021 10:17am Jul 18, 2021 10:17am
[quote = RickM; 13631479] {quote} Hola, analista técnico No dejes que los lobos te impidan ver la verdad. Un reflejo preciso del volumen está disponible para los pares estadounidenses: todo lo que necesitamos es visión para comprender lo que significan los datos y luego ejecutar su mensaje. Espero que tenga una excelente semana comercial [/ quote]

There is a payment service where you can place the actual volume of currency futures contracts in the Metatrader. can be an objective assessment
it's called ClusterDelta :

http://clusterdelta.com/
  • #2,074
  • Jul 18, 2021 10:21am Jul 18, 2021 10:21am
Quoting ryuryu
Show me stats where SL works. Show me stats where 1:2 RR works.
See my signature live trades MSFT stock. SL is 13% of the account. Backtested 8 years. Now live trading 4 months.

See here put on live FB stock with risk/reward 1/7. Backtested 8 years. Just recently put on live.

You can track my TE - will see how it goes further.
  • #2,075
  • Edited 11:22am Jul 18, 2021 11:02am | Edited 11:22am
Quoting gepards
{quote} See my signature live trades MSFT stock. SL is 13% of the account. Backtested 8 years. Now live trading 4 months. See here put on live FB stock with risk/reward 1/7. Backtested 8 years. Just recently put on live. You can track my TE - will see how it goes further.
So your TP is +91%?

Why not 92%? Why not 91.5%? Why SL is 13%? Why not 15%?

Why RR is 1/7 not 1/8 or 1/78?

I know the answer. Because you made a backtest and think that history will repeat itself. Ok, that is nice approach!

P.S. Microsoft is on top and will drop soon.
Observer effect
  • #2,076
  • Jul 18, 2021 11:42am Jul 18, 2021 11:42am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Techanalyst Don't let the wolfs blind you from seeing the truth. An accurate reflection of volume is available for US pairs - All we need is vision to understand what the data means then execute its message. Hope you have a great trading week
I also try to spot volume indirectly when/if I need it.

However, if one wants direct values, for postition traders you have the furures markets report which is made public on a weekly basis.

It helps to understand which will be the dominant forces during higher timeframe periods.

https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/C...ders/index.htm
  • #2,077
  • Edited 1:02pm Jul 18, 2021 12:39pm | Edited 1:02pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Techanalyst Don't let the wolfs blind you from seeing the truth. An accurate reflection of volume is available for US pairs - All we need is vision to understand what the data means then execute its message. Hope you have a great trading week
It seems to me that traders who object to using tick volume in Forex do so because they have not learned how to use it correctly. It's not about accuracy, though studies have shown tick volume is not that far off from real volume. It's the anomalies that make tick volume powerful to use for trading. Anomalies are indicative of soon coming retracements and even trend reversals. It can keep you from getting lured into traps, and give you early warnings to prepare to exit a position. Tick volume is very powerful when you know how to use it. But if a person is convinced it is worthless, then that's all it will ever be to that person, and they will not benefit from it. Granted, it's not perfect, but it is helpful, and quite effective when used in combination with other things such as candlestick patterns and key levels of support and resistance.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #2,078
  • Edited 1:10pm Jul 18, 2021 12:50pm | Edited 1:10pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} So your TP is +91%? Why not 92%? Why not 91.5%? Why SL is 13%? Why not 15%? Why RR is 1/7 not 1/8 or 1/78? I know the answer. Because you made a backtest and think that history will repeat itself. Ok, that is nice approach! P.S. Microsoft is on top and will drop soon.
Nobody knows when exactly MSFT will drop. But history shows all big techs could have about 30-35% drop. Most likely September/October will start a downtrend because of Covid 3rd/4rt waves.

TP is 1%. Using averaging 2 levels on next 6% drop. So when 13% then SL accepted.

Blue-chip companies stocks are different compared vs currencies... You can see normal/good companies tend to always grow. Big companies acquire smaller and if managed correctly will grow always. Pension funds like to buy blue-chip stocks no matter what price. Therefore constant push to price goes up in long term.

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See MSFT stock price and tell it is not UP trend in long term? See MSFT fundamentals. All good. Why not bet on BUY the dips? Nothing complicated. Never SELL. Only BUY when price drops some %. No need to use indicators.

Good companies to bet on longterm UP: CRM, FB, MSFT, AAPL, VZ, NOKIA. Make some research and could find various other sectors companies to bet on growth.

Why risk/reward 1/7? Yea, good results in the previous 8 years. No other reason. Why not? If that worked in 8 years more than 100 times... Trailing not worked so well... fixed SL/TP works the best in long term. Deals are opened shortly before markets closing. Therefore small SL. Bet on gaps. History show for good companies stocks gaps % more in positive way. Why not to use as an advantage?
  • #2,079
  • Jul 18, 2021 12:58pm Jul 18, 2021 12:58pm
Quoting gepards
{quote} Nobody knows when exactly MSFT will drop. But history shows all big techs could have about 30-35% drop. Most likely September/October will start a downtrend because of Covid 3rd/4rt waves. TP is 1%. Using averaging 2 levels on next 6% drop. So when 13% then SL accepted. Blue-chip companies stocks are different compared vs currencies... You can see normal/good companies tend to always grow. Big companies acquire smaller and if managed correctly will grow always. Insurance companies like to buy blue-chip stocks no matter what price. Therefore...
Well, that is a monthly chart. Corrections happen, as well as deep retracements. The Monthly chart won't show these things as clearly as a daily chart would. Under such conditions, it seems to make sense to trade against the trend. But it seems it would make more sense, in my opinion, two have two accounts, one for riding the trend out, and the other to trade the corrections/retracements. That's just my opinion. You do what you think is best for you.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #2,080
  • Jul 18, 2021 1:22pm Jul 18, 2021 1:22pm
Quoting here2there
Well, that is a monthly chart. Corrections happen, as well as deep retracements. The Monthly chart won't show these things as clearly as a daily chart would. Under such conditions, it seems to make sense to trade against the trend. But it seems it would make more sense, in my opinion, two have two accounts, one for riding the trend out, and the other to trade the corrections/retracements. That's just my opinion. You do what you think is best for you.
Tried various SELL methods for MSFT... indicators, % etc... never get good results in the past. Why bet on SELL?

Here some SELL setup but not impressive as BUY..

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17 entries for SELL in 8 years. Go SELL when MSFT went up at least 12% in the previous 7 days. Then you can expect a retrace of about 2% (TP target) and still have SL 17%... not nice with SELL.

Waren Baffet told "never bet against America"... I would tell "Never bet against Microsoft"
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