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  • #1,821
  • Jul 13, 2021 12:53am Jul 13, 2021 12:53am
Quoting ArnoldPike
but isn't the whole idea of this, is to see if we get it right? and how many times we can get it right? it looks like unequal opportunity at times.
All "edges" people try to trade are statistical and therefore results fluctuate. Nothing works "stable" in longterm. And still you can earn money out of all this stable "unstability" by using quantitative data proccessing & making portfolious of n "edges". It is posible only with EAs or with n manual traders. It is not wise to go "all in" with 1 particular EA or 1 particular manual trader even if that trader is yourself. Diversification is the key.

From all arguing in ff you can get out n ideas and compile your own portfolious with "edges". It is ok to argue. It is ok that all is uncertain. Just master it like insurance companies master probabilities in uncertain environment.
  • #1,822
  • Jul 13, 2021 12:58am Jul 13, 2021 12:58am
Quoting ArnoldPike
{quote} thanks for that info scherzi. I have been looking at all kinds of views and I can now see why all those things are important. A friend of mine uses jigsaw trading to see order flow and all that and last night he was trying to show me how some markets are similar. But it was over my head so I asked him to make it simpler. And all he said was with all the markets being open season to everyone now, there's lots of overlap of trading from same people and companies and stuff. Then he was talking about that same stuff you said before. Oh boy!...
Order flow is presented many times by swings sequentially and framed between zero levels. If you can anticipate to ascending an/or descending cannels, you get it.

Prices usually go beyond longer-term swings to print the first leg and then continue expanding the legs in the flow direction while starting the later legs as the market rebalances back to clear the pending orders or hedging or whatever is needed against the main direction. And that forms channels.
  • #1,823
  • Edited 2:14am Jul 13, 2021 1:39am | Edited 2:14am
However, @ArnodlPike,

See this order-flow change now on London markets opening time.

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Order-flow is not everything, I have not bought it because it is not actually at low prices within the current daily perspective and m15 rules over m1 intra-day.

I may miss this opportunity if it finally moves, up. But I am sitting waiting for prices to drop more to go long if I see that opportunity.

[edit]

Later screenshot. I want to buy this stuff, but lower. Anyways you can see how a new initial short-term positive order-flow is framed between two zero levels.

On equllibrium (50%) it seems to be printing a sideways movement. m1 traders could have bought below, on my first picture above for instance, an exited gradually as price was reaching and/or moving beyond the equillibrium area.
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Because the order-flow, at the intraday level, seems stronger than a small m1 channel:
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I think each of us understand imbalances in different ways. But we need a story behind the chart to trade it. Now the chart is switched ot M5. If prices comes up a bit, I can sell that imbalance while prices reach lower levels within the daily context and till it is completed so I can buy later.

This is an assumption and no one knows what is going to happen. And it does not work many times, you need to be eager to pay the markets.

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  • #1,824
  • Edited 2:54am Jul 13, 2021 2:38am | Edited 2:54am
This has been said before.

Fatigue is bad for trading, because it induces you to take trades too early (FOMO).

Yesterday, I lost 2 consecutive positions and decided to stop trading because I had headache. It seems stupid but I think that many of us take loses by FOMO mainly. It is not easy to decide to stop when you have a losing day.

And even if you trade as planned, you should quit the trade if it violates your rules.

I sold here but the imbalance was higher than expected (much higher), so I closed at breakeven (for me BE is recovery mode when I try to mitigate a loss or a bad position). M5 has a relatively high degree of strength for intra-day. I am expecting prices to fall even more, but I cannot ignore the break of these highs and the consecutive lower-highs that contradict the story behind my scalp.

When you are wrong in any part of your story, you can assume all your story was wrong and you are not flowing with price. So it is better to sit on your hands.

Attached Image


It would have worked, but most often than not, it won't work when your story is not right. Never regret closing a bad trade even if it eventually works out.
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Now I am long but within the weekly range perspective and the process starts again. I think prices can fall even below Monday's lows, so my SL is not visible nor my TP.

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  • #1,825
  • Jul 13, 2021 3:06am Jul 13, 2021 3:06am
Day trading is about answering this question. At what point in live market do you know with some certainty price is moving towards T1 or T2? Same question every trading day.
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Know what you trade
  • #1,826
  • Jul 13, 2021 3:16am Jul 13, 2021 3:16am
Quoting scherzi
I think each of us understand imbalances in different ways. But we need a story behind the chart to trade it.
1. Imbalance = when there are more buys then sells and vice versa. There are no other definition. The bigger the imbalance the greater the trade.
2. We don't need any story behind. We don't need higher TF data. Imbalance is imbalance.

I don't see any volume data on your chart so I hardly can understand how the world you see imbalances.
Observer effect
  • #1,827
  • Jul 13, 2021 3:20am Jul 13, 2021 3:20am
Quoting BWilliam
Day trading is about answering this question. At what point do you know with some certainty price is moving towards T1 or T2? Same question every trading day. {image}
Yes, lol

I (most usually) try to do this instead. That chart is bullish for me, so I will be waiting a Tᵢ level to go long.

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  • #1,828
  • Jul 13, 2021 3:21am Jul 13, 2021 3:21am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} 1. Imbalance = when there are more buys then sells and vice versa. There are no other definition. The bigger the imbalance the greater the trade. 2. We don't need any story behind. We don't need higher TF data. Imbalance is imbalance. I don't see any volume data on your chart so I hardly can understand how the world you see imbalances.
that what he said we all see imbalance differently we see imbalances without volume , volume is leading data yet lags when it compares to price.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,829
  • Jul 13, 2021 3:46am Jul 13, 2021 3:46am
Time is a driver
Volume is an engine
Price is a wheel
Just popped in my mind
  • #1,830
  • Jul 13, 2021 3:54am Jul 13, 2021 3:54am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} that what he said we all see imbalance differently we see imbalances without volume , volume is leading data yet lags when it compares to price.
The imbalance you see on price bar or candle is an assumption and not conclusive. You still need volume to conclude that indeed there is an imbalance.
  • #1,831
  • Jul 13, 2021 4:10am Jul 13, 2021 4:10am
Quoting Pumi
{quote} The imbalance you see on price bar or candle is an assumption and not conclusive. You still need volume to conclude that indeed there is an imbalance.
the statement raised was we see imbalance differently, three candles move to one side is conclusive itself it is imbalance price moves to one direction, what you are pointing is the number orders in one candle so both things are entirely different.

i emphasize again that the beauty not lies in leg pulling, blaming, shaming but in learning from each other, it is not about if you lose only than i win we can win by learning from each other not by saying other is wrong or vice versa.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,832
  • Jul 13, 2021 4:12am Jul 13, 2021 4:12am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} 1. Imbalance = when there are more buys then sells and vice versa. There are no other definition. The bigger the imbalance the greater the trade. 2. We don't need any story behind. We don't need higher TF data. Imbalance is imbalance. I don't see any volume data on your chart so I hardly can understand how the world you see imbalances.
Even if the optimization algorithms used to allocate orders and generate prices take into account the market depth, I assume that it would be inaccurate and vague to say that every price change depends only of the difference between supply and demand.

Programs can be parametrized in multiple ways to pursue other goals different from matching buy and sell orders.

So, for instance, when I go long today I have two main imbalance areas on my chart (you can verify it looking at my previous posts with levels 1.1848 and 1.1842 printed on them):
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If I am bullish I can try to enter long when I know prices are low and the imbalance is reasonabily compensated. My exact definition of imbalance, I keep it for myself.

I do need higher TFs, maybe you not. But I trade upon HTF bias. That is part of my system. If you do not need it, then it does not necessarily implies that all of us do not need it.

When the imbalance is compensated, price is in equillibrium and it will more soon than later took off.

I need to go.

See you.
  • #1,833
  • Jul 13, 2021 4:24am Jul 13, 2021 4:24am
Quoting scherzi
So, for instance, when I go long today I have two main imbalance areas on my chart
That is exactly what I'm talking about. You are drawing random rectangles, lines, using fibo levels, placing arrows... And think you have found imbalances or support and resistance areas. In fact you are just guessing. There are no math under the hood.

Imbalance = Buy Volume / Sell Volume (or Buy Volume - Sell Volume, doesn't matter).
You don't have volume data. You can call your trading approach everything you like but this is not trading market insufficiency - imbalance. Nothing in common.

p.s. I'm not saying that your approach is not profitable or it is very good. I just said let's call red apples red apples not green watermelons.
Observer effect
  • #1,834
  • Jul 13, 2021 4:37am Jul 13, 2021 4:37am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} the statement raised was we see imbalance differently, three candles move to one side is conclusive itself it is imbalance price moves to one direction, what you are pointing is the number orders in one candle so both things are entirely different.
The 3 candles/bars can mean 1 candle/bar to another trader or not even a bar/candle for a trader who doesn't use a time based chart.
Price can still be traded efficiently on those 3 candles.
  • #1,835
  • Jul 13, 2021 4:40am Jul 13, 2021 4:40am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} That is exactly what I'm talking about. You are drawing random rectangles, lines, using fibo levels, placing arrows... And think you have found imbalances or support and resistance areas. In fact you are just guessing. There are no math under the hood. Imbalance = Buy Volume / Sell Volume (or Buy Volume - Sell Volume, doesn't matter). You don't have volume data. You can call your trading approach everything you like but this is not trading market insufficiency - imbalance. Nothing in common. p.s. I'm not saying that your approach is not...
Ok, just understand that when I say "imbalance", it is not exactly what it is written in your dictionary. Just that.
  • #1,836
  • Jul 13, 2021 4:47am Jul 13, 2021 4:47am
Quoting scherzi
{quote} Ok, just understand that when I say "imbalance", it is not exactly what it is written in your dictionary. Just that.
Sure. Imbalance is not Buy vol / Sell vol. It is the line (or colored rectangle) that trader scherzi placed on his charts with a strong theory in the background why we should not divide buy volume on sell volume but use random magic rectangles instead.

Observer effect
  • #1,837
  • Jul 13, 2021 4:49am Jul 13, 2021 4:49am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Sure. Imbalance is not Buy vol / Sell vol. It is the line (or colored rectangle) that trader scherzi placed on his charts with a strong theory in the background why we should not divide buy volume on sell volume but use random magic rectangles instead.
I told you I am not going to explain to you what I exactly mean with imbalance. It is not your business how I trade. Get over it.

I am not going to argue with you anymore in any case.
  • #1,838
  • Jul 13, 2021 5:10am Jul 13, 2021 5:10am
Quoting Pumi
{quote} The 3 candles/bars can mean 1 candle/bar to another trader or not even a bar/candle for a trader who doesn't use a time based chart. Price can still be traded efficiently on those 3 candles.
That's the beauty of time frames
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,839
  • Jul 13, 2021 5:32am Jul 13, 2021 5:32am
Quoting scherzi
{quote} I told you I am not going to explain to you what I exactly mean with imbalance. It is not your business how I trade. Get over it. I am not going to argue with you anymore in any case.
ryuryu was just trying to avoid confusion, its a Volume only definition.

If price is at a level and four orders come in of the same size, its a Bid imbalance if three of them are Sellers and one is a Buyer - price will go bearish.

But its not so simple because liquidity is required to be consistent on both sides of price for the move to actually turn bearish. If a big player stacks buy orders tightly together to form a dense wall, price will stop and be repelled bullish.

Many candles I look at all night long can have a Bullish delta (more buyers than sellers) but the candle ends bearish. Therefore its the liquidity which controls direction, not buyers or sellers.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,840
  • Jul 13, 2021 6:07am Jul 13, 2021 6:07am
Quoting RickM
{quote} ryuryu was just trying to avoid confusion, its a Volume only definition.
Yeah. Imbalance of what? Of volume, of red candles, money.
I understand if he said: there were 10 green candles and only 3 red. Imbalance of candles.
Or. Average red candle size is 100, green is 500. Imbalance.

But he is talking about VOLUME imbalance with no volume data available

How the world you can count your apples if you even don't have one? It is like you are trying to detect the speed of your car not using speedometer but sticking a wet finger out the window.

Quoting scherzi
I am not going to argue with you anymore in any case.
Agree. There is nothing to argue. You can't count volume imbalance without volume data. Easy.
Observer effect
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