Cable Supply & Demand Intraday

Attempting to buy countertrend

- Major support level, just popped SL area under asia range low, been grinding down slowly for a while without much retrace, bottom of a channel and H1 TL- banking on an LO fakeout

Long from this morning pre-LO

Untested m5 demand was hit 1.38 (also H1 demand), reversal pattern with divergence so went long for 20 pips to pivot/SBR/5 supply

Now this should have been an easy reverse short but I didn't take it unfortunately. Part of me was thinking (unjustifiably) we may continue up, but would have been a very easy momentum continuation supply short

Took another short on cable on the m5 supply from the morning impulse down on the Bailey speech. This was crying out for short with bearish structure already in place.

However, I perceived the green drop base rally zone as a valid buying zone so I TP'd and bought at the first sign of a bounce (price looked like it may form a triangle)... however, newbie error. The demand was cleared pretty quick and I took a 1xR loss, however got 3xR on the short. Simply staying in the short, obviously with hindsight, would have been a much better move in a clear bear market

DXY starting to reach into weekly supply so a deep correction expected soon on cable. Will it reach up to the daily supply around 93.1-93.5 or will NFP be the catalyst for a turnaround ?

There was a fairly standard breakout short on cable off of a flip zone this morning but I slept through it. Waiting to see if it hunts the asia range high before diving again

Daily demand on GU has been tested twice so can break, but we have two untested zones on the H4 chart coming up

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ua7MroP3/

Possibly 1.37-1.3750 will be the spot for a correction so I look out for a shift to bullish structure around there

Cable loves round numbers so 1.37 is promising

There was a valid buy on the retest of this m5 demand zone (h4 as HTF), I didn't take it though but lets see if we retest

Range low and high taken out- curious if price will fall now after buy stops collected

To me it's not a high probability trade though as we are reacting off of demand, if it's too uncertain like this I prefer just to observe

It didn't transpire in the end and we are getting the anticipated correction off of the untested demand level. I had a long in for NFP in the above level (3740) but it took out my BE stop before popping (now 90+pips). A bit frustrating really. I largely stayed away from the markets today because I don't like to get involved during these big market moving events. If it didn't go my way and I didn't have my stop in place then it could have wiped a good chunk of my account so it's not worth the risk. Back next week.

Doing some work on my trading plan this weekend setting out one-page documents for each of my trading setups with matrices to grade their perceived strength, and a written checklist system. Hopefully this removes some of the variability and impulsiveness I occasionally experience.

Looking for DXY to retest the mid 92s before going long on cable. Looks like an imbalance on dxy to fill. Candidates are 1.38, and the green demand zone below 1.3760-80. Target 1.3960

Possibly a drop overnight during asia, I'll wait for LO to make a judgement call

testing short, target pivot around 1.38

edit-stopped at BE

try again the short higher up around 1.3850

Holding overnight from the resistance level, W pattern on demand looks good on dxy for a drop on cable to me, will lock in at BE, Asia can do it's own thing so never know

Just picked up this on audible, amazing I've never read it

Of course it pumps during Asia and takes me out BE

On zero for the week still, keep an eye on things- kind of screws up my plan to go long to 1.39 now we've already hit. See if I can find a scalp

Took short on this retest/m5 supply area, PA suggesting further down for me

edit-stop hit -10

Have to chastise myself a bit because this kind of setup isn't in my trading plan anymore (TL retest/confluence). I used to trade these and get burned as they deliberately fake out a lot so they're not reliable. I guess I was impatient in this instance, lesson learned.

Caught a good amount of the short today just shorting the pullbacks into the clusters on m1

The last trade I posted was actually fine just the stop was too tight- it went up to the 0.618 retrace and did an ABCD move down

Now we are retesting weekly supply/broken TL on dxy - if this holds then it can be bulls all week on GU-we shall see.. Currently in a demand zone from Fridays pump, I have tested the waters with a v small long

Caught 40 pips on the long, TPd at an m5 supply. Then 15 pips scalp on the way down, then lost 10 pips buying 1.38. Still decent profit. DX now heading up to daily supply 93-93.5 so no buys until then.

Actually broke my rules yesterday with the buy as we were reacting off of h4 supply- didn't have this transposed to my intraday chart at the time. Lesson learned. Still worked out an OK day with the 40 pip buy.

Looking at the 2 h4 zones as the trading range until breakout, I have a long going from the same area as yesterday to the pivot

Scalp buy, possible frankfurt fakey. Treating the asia range as a stop hunt zone and buying in demand

Edit- didn't work, this setup isn't in my trading plan yet so just keep it under observation for now, -8 pips

The real setup was the short from the supply above, that is in one of my setups but I didn't have the zone drawn wide enough so was waiting for a retest of 1.38 before selling

Edit again- ended up re-entering and took a good buy, then reverse sell, missed the buy again but then sold again around the pivot so a good day all in just bouncing between zones

Quick 20 pip scalp this morning

No rush just wait for something solid to pop up next

Generally think down on cable because I think we're headed to daily supply on DXY, but anything can happen