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Can anyone figure this strategy out?

  • #41
  • Apr 15, 2021 5:04am Apr 15, 2021 5:04am
I think its are short timeframe positions. And the expert using.
  • #42
  • May 7, 2021 4:01am May 7, 2021 4:01am
Quoting Mr4x86
{quote} He adjust lot sizes down during periods of expected volatility like major news / elections / etc and sometimes does not trade during these events at all. I guess with automation you just need to tell the algo when to stop placing trades, he obviously does only 1-4 trades before calling it quits for the night...
What I'm keen to find out is what his rules are when the 4th trade still doesn't work in his favour.
Running some backtests shows that his original rules are pretty solid. Test of the pudding will be in live conditions with larger lot sizes.
  • #43
  • Jul 7, 2021 12:19am Jul 7, 2021 12:19am
If anyone is still looking at this - His account is in quite a bit of a drawdown at the moment with 3 trades in. These are the moments that will be the true tests.
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  • #44
  • Jul 7, 2021 12:20am Jul 7, 2021 12:20am
On a separate note, I've been forward testing my own interpretation of his strategy. If you keep it to low trade count, it just might work
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  • #45
  • Jul 7, 2021 4:34pm Jul 7, 2021 4:34pm
That s hot stuff...this could be created as feature in every ea....outstanding good...!
Vucking good EA coder... https://t.ly/AZjRM
  • #46
  • Jul 17, 2021 8:23am Jul 17, 2021 8:23am
He is in a bit of a bind now though, 3 open trades for significant drawdown and for quite a long time now as well:
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  • #47
  • Jul 21, 2021 2:03am Jul 21, 2021 2:03am
Mate is still in a drawdown. Must be one of his worst over so many years
  • #48
  • Jul 21, 2021 7:18am Jul 21, 2021 7:18am
Quoting carddard
Mate is still in a drawdown. Must be one of his worst over so many years

for him it is a matter of waiting for market to go back to his entries (pray, wait, tears). For me, I m interested to see what the reports show once the trades are closed if they return to that level. Will there be any indication that there was such a big drawdown, or will it just look like a few ok trades?
  • #49
  • Jul 21, 2021 7:58am Jul 21, 2021 7:58am
Quoting Mr4x86
Just a slight observation, looking at the range GBPCAD trades from 22:00 Broker time you could almost guarantee profit by going short right at 22:00 with TP of 10 pips and doing a slight grid adding up to 3 positions if the trade goes against you by 20 pips. Most of the time GBPCAD will make a move downwards over the next 12 hours after 22:00... Yes that is actually 5am Sydney time at the moment with no daylight savings... Anybody feel free to jump in with observations or to correct me if you believe I am wrong...
Yes, I agree basically that you can trade directionless during the Asian session.

In fact you can do it also with the daily range, but the Asian range is normally more stable.
  • #50
  • Jul 27, 2021 7:43am Jul 27, 2021 7:43am
now there are 4 trades in loss. The last one was actually in profit but no profit taken (because it is hoped it will help to cost average out of the other 3 losses) but no stop loss placed for at least breakeven if that did not work. A trader should always i think place Break Even stops when possible in cases like this. Just my opinion.
  • #51
  • Jul 28, 2021 2:07am Jul 28, 2021 2:07am
Quoting modsky
now there are 4 trades in loss. The last one was actually in profit but no profit taken (because it is hoped it will help to cost average out of the other 3 losses) but no stop loss placed for at least breakeven if that did not work. A trader should always i think place Break Even stops when possible in cases like this. Just my opinion.
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Now 5. If would start even with 700 usd deposit then wipeout. Seems to survive this dd needed 1000 usd initial deposit. Therefore in 3 years 1499 usd profit is not anymore 499% profits... but 150%. On average 50% yearly. And still will have 70% dd. For me, risk tolerance is ~35%. Therefore 2000 usd initial deposit needed. Then 25% yearly. And still.. we have 5 opened deals and who knows where GBPCAD could go...

This is when averaging without SL used... wipeout is very realistic.
  • #52
  • Jul 28, 2021 3:33am Jul 28, 2021 3:33am
Quoting joyny
{quote} {image} Now 5. If would start even with 700 usd deposit then wipeout. Seems to survive this dd needed 1000 usd initial deposit. Therefore in 3 years 1499 usd profit is not anymore 499% profits... but 150%. On average 50% yearly. And still will have 70% dd. For me, risk tolerance is ~35%. Therefore 2000 usd initial deposit needed. Then 25% yearly. And still.. we have 5 opened deals and who knows where GBPCAD could go... This is when averaging without SL used... wipeout is very realistic.
GBPCAD have been in a wide weekly range for 1.5 years. GBPCAD is now close to the top of this range. It may turn south. But it's
very risky trading to add to loosing trades. But I think he will make it this time.
  • #53
  • Jul 29, 2021 9:26pm Jul 29, 2021 9:26pm
Quoting joyny
{quote} {image} Now 5. If would start even with 700 usd deposit then wipeout. Seems to survive this dd needed 1000 usd initial deposit. Therefore in 3 years 1499 usd profit is not anymore 499% profits... but 150%. On average 50% yearly. And still will have 70% dd. For me, risk tolerance is ~35%. Therefore 2000 usd initial deposit needed. Then 25% yearly. And still.. we have 5 opened deals and who knows where GBPCAD could go... This is when averaging without SL used... wipeout is very realistic.

i would hope he calculates the lot size based on equity so as balance increases, then lot size increases. ONLY by adjusting the lot size to the equity in account can a person survive drawdown like this...still too much draw down in my opinion and for me lot size is too big. But traders are impatient to make big dollars on trades but really it is more important to be consistent on pips on trades. ONce a trader is constantly making positive pips month after month, with minor drawdown %, then they have a reliable system and money control. Until then, it is still danger in times like this.
However trade 5 is at this moment in positive dollars. If me, I would close and take that money now to add to equity, but i think he/she is hoping to average out of the trades to Break Even, which can also be good IF he/she protects this winning trade now so at least it does not again go negative.
My opinion only.
  • #54
  • Jul 29, 2021 11:50pm Jul 29, 2021 11:50pm
If you are all so interested in optimizing EAs... why go so far when there are some good EAs(and the coder=me) are here...
Look at my profile....#3-#4 are promising but there has to be much done in dd....
Feel free to write me a pm...
Attached Image
Vucking good EA coder... https://t.ly/AZjRM
  • #55
  • Aug 4, 2021 7:44am Aug 4, 2021 7:44am
what an annoying giffy, have to add posts just to move it up to not keep seeing it














annoying
  • #56
  • Aug 4, 2021 7:45am Aug 4, 2021 7:45am
move it up more












still annoying
  • #57
  • Oct 13, 2021 10:27am Oct 13, 2021 10:27am
Looks like he managed to save the account with a fairly chunky equity drawdown, after leaving positions open in the wrong direction of a strong trend for months and months. Could it be that GBPCAD is one of those pairs that can simply be abused and end in profit if your position sizes are small enough?
  • #58
  • Oct 14, 2021 3:30am Oct 14, 2021 3:30am
Quoting Mr4x86
Looks like he managed to save the account with a fairly chunky equity drawdown, after leaving positions open in the wrong direction of a strong trend for months and months. Could it be that GBPCAD is one of those pairs that can simply be abused and end in profit if your position sizes are small enough?
With a larger account snd trading size, it can be a real pain holding onto these losses for a prolonged period of time
  • #59
  • Oct 14, 2021 9:47am Oct 14, 2021 9:47am
https://ncmsignal.com/signal
  • #60
  • Oct 14, 2021 2:57pm Oct 14, 2021 2:57pm
Looking at the profile of the returns, I think that there is a real risk of this account blowing up. Adding to losers is fine if you know what you’re doing (e.g. aggregating multiple, somewhat-correlated strategies that are giving you signals at different times). The strategy here seems to involve some amount of praying and YOLOing.

What happens if the pair never recovers?
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