The Equilibrium, a key to success!

Hello Lem, Thank you very much for your great praise, the translation should now work on YouTube. I wish you a successful trading week and a great weekend. Greetings Michael

Inserted Video

Why 90% of traders lose...


Hello dear subscribers,

the new video is online and, as always, you will first receive the English translation. You can find the link from the video at the end of my post.

There are around 5 million retail traders worldwide, 90% of whom lose every month. That's a shockingly high number and at first glance you can't believe that such a high rate of loss is possible. In today's post we want to look at why this is in detail. In the videos I have produced so far, you will find good solutions that can help you in the future. We can gloss it over as we want. The fact is that only 5% of all traders make long-term profits. 5% are breakeven and 90% suffer losses. The dramatic thing is that the 5% who make profits unfortunately not all traders can make a living from it. The fundamental question is what reason should there be for you, of all people, to be one of the winners in the future. Maybe some of my approaches will help you, if so I would be very happy about it.

One of the main reasons so many traders lose is the fact that many believe that the stock market is very simple. Accordingly, they meet the big players in the market. Playing chess is also relatively easy in principle, but not when you play against the world champion. And in the stock market we compete against the best traders in the world every day. It would be presumptuous to believe that you have a fair chance here. This does not mean that it is impossible to trade profitably, but one should enter the markets with the necessary respect. Another problem is working with the indicators. Many traders rely on indicators to make the decision as to whether or not to enter a trade. And that is exactly a big mistake that can cost a lot of money in the long term. Here we should always pay attention to the causality principle of cause and effect. Only the market orders that run into the limit orders are responsible for a price change and not the indicator that suddenly indicates an oversold. From this cause the effect arises, like the price the candles and the time. Trading decisions should never be made on the basis of an effect, but always on the basis of the cause itself.

A lot of traders pay too much attention to the price from my point of view. Of course, a price randomly changes direction at an even price level, but as a rule you will not notice that. As we know, there is actually no above and below in the price, so the price is completely irrelevant to me. In most cases I don't even know exactly where the price is in EURUSD. In EURUSD, the average cost per lot is ten dollars. If I do ten trades, the broker has already made $ 100. With a 60% win rate, I have to win at least $ 16 per trade to make as much as my broker. This $ 100 that the broker earns logically reduces my profit. In addition to the costs and fees, the execution times and many other things are of course also important. You can find detailed information about this in my videos.

The hype about volume trading began ten years ago in Germany, although volume trading is nothing new as the big players have been working with it for over 30 years. However, the big players do not work with volume in the way many coaches portray it. The volume is just an addition of the ask and bid. Interestingly enough, ask and bid never meet and have nothing to do with each other in the market. In the high volume peaks, people like to talk about the fair price, but the fair price is where there was hardly any volume. For this reason, volume trading is ineffective for me. Many traders look to the news to make trading decisions. But it is not the news that influences the market, it is the market that influences the news. Check out my last video about this. There I'll show you that not even the latest news from the FED have a significant impact on the markets (except for volatility). The big players who have previously collected ask or bids in certain price regions determine where the markets will go.

It is also a mistake to assume that there are both upward and downward trends. What we see on the chart are only movements that are initiated by the big players. These movements are only dependent on the reactions of the 1 million retail traders. For this reason, the market technique and the candle formation are ineffective for me. Every day, many traders look for the ASSETS with the highest volatility in different markets, because they believe they can make a profit with it. Basically, this line of thought is not wrong, but 90% of traders lose their money. High volatility is therefore rather counterproductive for over 90% of traders, as they lose money even faster with this approach. The Apple share has a significantly higher volatility than the EURUSD, which is due to the fact that the largest big players in the world provide a massive amount of liquidity in the EURUSD. That is precisely where security is significantly higher. Another challenge is the flood of information from the stock exchanges, which runs exclusively through our brain canal, seeing. Our eyes are totally overloaded in trading, as they can only absorb about 25 pieces of information per second. For this reason, I work with tones that our brain can pick up up to 20 times more efficiently. This often brings significant market advantages.

Many future traders often only concentrate on the market orders, although it is primarily the limit orders that influence the market. In addition, I made a nice comparison with a vehicle in my videos to show the dominance of limit orders. In order to anticipate the short-term market development one has to be able to identify a kind of 3-D strength in the limit and market orders. This results in further advantages. Another challenge is that every trader has different skills and approaches. You can't lump traders together. First of all, you should find out whether you are suitable as a swing trader, day trader or scalper. When this question has been answered, you should create and further optimize your individual setup precisely in this area. A trader who tries to be able to do everything is in the end just a duck who can do everything. Flies swim, run and dive, but in no area does it stand a chance against its competition.

In EURUSD, downward movements are 30-40% faster than upward movements. Those who use this information to their advantage can earn up to 30% more without changing their strategy. Anyone who wants to become successful as a trader must inevitably deal with these decisive factors in trading. This is about efficient money management that can only be achieved if in-depth information is available. From this information you can identify your strengths and weaknesses as well as your mistakes and improve them in the long term. In addition, you should also deal with the topic of taxes and know which measures must be taken so that the new trader tax does not take effect so dramatically. You can get information about it in my video, even with a table that you can download.

A greatly underestimated factor in trading is the amount of screen time spent trading. This screen time is essentially responsible for when you hit your personal breakeven point. It's like playing a video game, the more you play the better you get. It is therefore crucial not to invest so much money in the beginning. A crucial point why so many traders lose is due to the fact that they have simply chosen the wrong asset for themselves. In my videos you will find a table where you can calculate your optimal asset. In the example you can see that personally I am four times faster in profit in EURUSD than in pound US dollars. I can also urge every trader to take a closer look at currency strengths. This information is actually worth gold and often gives you the decisive market advantage. Another challenge is to no longer use time-dependent charts for market analysis in the future. Use time and volume-independent charts for this. The best information can be generated from this and it can even be used to read out algorithms. Since we are dealing more and more with algorithms in this market, you will have to deal with them in the future. Get creative and develop your own strategies and procedures to penetrate even deeper into the market. This results in further market advantages. It is a great fairy tale that you have a real chance against the big players with a laptop. No big player works with a laptop, but with state-of-the-art technology and the fastest servers in the world, which are located as close as possible to the stock exchange locations. Our technology today ages very quickly, as you can see in the following article. Not only does our knowledge double every ten years, technology and progress are also changing our language rapidly. Here we find ten sentences that no one would have understood twenty years ago. For this reason I can strongly recommend that you invest in very good technology. In my videos I go into exactly that and show you how you can save a lot of money. There are no relevant patterns in the price or in the candles. Neither do we find any samples in the cathedral or in the T&S. I have already analyzed a few 100,000 candles and found that there are no reliable samples. But there is a ray of hope on the horizon, because clear patterns can be identified in the algorithms. And that is also logical, since they are programmed once and are called up until they are reprogrammed. And it is precisely these algorithms that make life so difficult for most traders. For this reason, one should study it more closely.

Many traders have already wondered about my screen structure, but that's because I use it to identify and evaluate precisely these algorithms. Another reason why so many traders lose is that over 70% of the price trend takes place in the equilibrium or sideways market. This is exactly where small price movements occur, which make it so difficult for day or swing traders. Basically, the stock market is by far the largest market in the world. If we add the forex market to the stocks and future markets, we get a daily turnover of $ 10 trillion. So that we can see how much that is, I've made a comparison. The annual gross domestic product in the US is $ 20,932 billion. Germany is five times smaller but is already in fourth place. If we add up the gross domestic product of the entire world, we get together $ 87.552 billion. If we were to compare the total annual turnover on the stock exchange with this, they would be 87 times greater than the world's gross domestic product. From an economic point of view, of course, the figures cannot be compared with each other, it should only show once how big the stock market turnover is. And in this stock exchange environment, the big players have the greatest capital. The biggest big players trade up to 1 million lots in a day. In order to move the rate by one pip in EURUSD, you have to invest around 10-20,000 lots. That means the institutional and retail traders are hardly able to influence the price. By the way, this is one of the main reasons why so many retail traders are losing.

Another reason is that most traders do not even see what the big players have collected and therefore cannot estimate the future price. Since the big players collect their limit orders with the help of iceberg orders, the essentials in the market are invisible to most traders. And it is precisely this advantage that the big players use to their advantage. Over the past few years I've found that the shorter the time I've been in the market, the lower my risk becomes. I developed the pip value per minute for myself. The longer I am in a trade, the smaller the pip value per minute becomes. The pip value per minute and the risk are contrary to each other. For this reason, I am interested in achieving the highest possible pip value per minute in order to keep the risk low and at the same time to achieve effective profits. I also recommend combining the forex and stock market data with each other for the sake of probability of profit. In the euro US dollar, the two different markets are almost tick-accurate to one another. I also recommend that you look for your optimal currency pair and then work exclusively with it. I've had very good experiences with it over the past eleven years. In my numerous videos you will get a lot of information about the different winning probabilities in the different ASSETS. It is always about one thing: Where can I achieve the highest return with the lowest risk and where can I keep it with a high probability? For this, I recommend an individual evaluation in order to then determine which area is most interesting for you. This market is all about probabilities and if you act wisely here, you can become more successful with it. Avoid bad advisors or incompetent coaches who only want your best, namely your money. As I mentioned in my last few videos, many coaches got into trouble because customers were no longer willing to pay such horrific sums. Some bankruptcies are just around the corner. Instead, look for a mentor who may accompany you for life and not interested in money.

Another factor that should not be underestimated is the psychology of trading. Man instinctively wants to understand things, grasp, pick up or examine them. But that is exactly what is almost impossible on the stock market. In nature there are neither rewards nor punishments; there are only consequences. And that is exactly the same on the stock exchange. If you want to be successful on the stock market, you should develop into a Triple A Trader. This triple A stands for different from others. It's not about being better than the big players, it's about being different from the other traders. And that is exactly what your future profit will be. In the past there have been different studies where one wanted to find out what distinguishes a successful person from an unsuccessful one. At first it was assumed that a successful person makes five correct decisions out of eight, while the unsuccessful person makes only two correct decisions. However, that was a huge mistake. The studies have found that both the successful and the unsuccessful make the same number of correct decisions. What made the successful one successful? Well, it was simply because the unsuccessful tended to postpone decisions or to take too long to make a decision. This means that the successful person was simply able to make twice the number of successful decisions in the same time, which ultimately explains his success.

I am convinced that a great many of you will find some aspects of this video that you have gotten wrong in the past. The ability to turn to something new requires the ability to break away from the previous one. And it is precisely here that past experiences very often stand in the way. Changes are always very stressful and frightening because you cannot predict the future. But this is exactly the step you must be ready to take. This is the current situation in the market and if you are ready to address these changes the tide could turn to your advantage.

In this video I talked about a lot of things that I have already covered in great detail in my individual videos. If you are not yet informed about this, I recommend you to watch the videos. There you will get a lot of information that will optimize your probability of winning. You can lose some time by doing this, but the chances are high that you will gain more in the long run. I keep my fingers crossed for you with all my heart and would be very happy if my information helps you a little.

In return, I would be very happy if you would recommend this YouTube channel to others. I wish you all the best in trading.



Kind regards Michael

Strategy, part-time to become a successful trader



Hello dear subscribers,


the new video is online and, as always, you will first receive the English translation. You can find the link from the video at the end of my post.

Many people dream of becoming a successful trader. But what's the smartest way to do it? Do I jump into the deep end and start full-time straight away, or is there a good alternative that offers me the security I need and that may bring me to profitability in 3 years. In addition, I will give you some important information that will significantly increase your probability of winning. For this purpose I analyzed some 100,000 candles, the result is very interesting and will help you in the trade. In Germany there are 44.7 million gainfully employed persons, of which 40.7 million are salaried and over 4 million self-employed. Of the 40.7 million employees, over 3 million also have a part-time job, as the income from one job is no longer sufficient for many employees. 23% are very satisfied in their job, 55% are moderately satisfied and 22% are dissatisfied. Since the self-employed and part-time workers can usually choose their activities, this satisfaction relates to the remaining 37 million employees. The fact that 55% are only moderately satisfied shows that there are massive problems here too.

There are many reasons for dissatisfaction. Too much work, too little time, too little money, and annoying colleagues are criticized by most. There is a lack of recognition in the job, self-realization is seldom given, there is little prospect for the future and the question of meaning is judged poorly by most. The time dependency, work from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. and the local dependency are also criticized. Long driving times to work are not counted as working time. The job is performed according to regulations and wrong values are conveyed in the process. Many criticize the loneliness at work, such as parcel delivery staff or agents, and feel that they are underutilized. Not only is working with hazardous substances harmful to health, but also sitting in open-plan offices with poor ventilation. Overall, many do not have a work-life balance. Many trading coaches who advertise on YouTube take advantage of employee dissatisfaction. From her point of view, trading is associated with: Little work, more time, a lot of money and great colleagues. There is recognition you can realize yourself has a future perspective and the question of meaning has also been clarified. You can work when and where you want and determine your own values. Joint trading in a team, there is no underchallenge, lots of breaks and the work-life balance is not neglected either. Some trading coaches even recommend jumping into the deep end. You should simply book a seminar with them and then quit your job and immediately start full-time as a successful trader. I can only urgently warn you not to comply with this request. Because these trading coaches are primarily concerned with the money that they earn from you.

In truth, as a trading beginner you have a lot of work, little time and no money because you only lose at the beginning. There are hardly any colleagues who act in the same setup as you. You will only receive recognition from the trading coach if you pay for it. Of course you can self-actualize, while your wife goes to work and earns money, you lose your money on the stock market. Of course, you do not have great future prospects in trading at the beginning and you can clarify the question of meaning when you have become successful. You can work whenever you want, but in the beginning I worked 13-14 hours a day and even on weekends. Of course, you no longer have to drive to work every morning and do the work according to the rules, but now you have to observe your own rules and values. You will continue to trade alone all day, you will be overwhelmed by the approach of the big players and if you forget to take breaks, your health and your work-life balance will suffer. When you suddenly become self-employed as a former employee, there are many challenges. I know that exactly because I've been self-employed for over 32 years and I made a lot of mistakes at the beginning.

If you do a mini job for three years, you have to work 1500 hours and earn € 16,000. In trading, you will invest at least 3,000 hours in the first three years and possibly lose € 12,000 or even more. Of course you have to invest as an entrepreneur, the question is always whether you can afford it. I don't know if your life partner will love it. The fact is you invest a lot of time in the beginning, have less time for the family, and are stressed when things don't go well. You lose money for the first three years and have little support in trading and possibly at home. But there is a solution to this, and that's what we're going to talk about today. How do you learn to ride a bike? It is best to start with a balance bike, where the sense of balance is best trained. And once you master this skill, you can start with a small bike. That's why I would recommend most of you to start trading on a part-time basis and as soon as you have made steady profits, you can switch to a main job. Of course, it depends on your individual situation, if you are single and have no responsibility for a family, you are of course more free in your decision. Of course, full-time trading is the most efficient, but today I'm going to show you a way how you can achieve your goals faster in part-time trading.

Since trading is all about probabilities, we have to deal with it first. Let's consider an Risk-reward ratio 1. Our stop is five pips from the entry and so is the TP. This would result in a profit probability of 50%, of course without spread and commission. These costs further reduce our probability of winning. A RRR of 2 reduces our chance of winning to 33% and a RRR of 3 only gives us a 25% chance of winning. A RRR of 4 means we lose 80% of the time and a RRR of 5 means we have a 17% chance of winning. The pure RRR consideration is of no use to us, the decisive factor is our personal profit ratio. Let's take a look at which RRR the most successful traders work with. Goldman Sachs has a hit rate of 90% with a RRR of just over 2, even though they are primarily day traders.

The range in which a part-time trader acts is a decisive criterion. To do this, we look at the EURUSD in the M5 in the time from 5 p.m. to 8 p.m., where a part-time trader can trade. To get a RRR of 3, we use a stop of 5 pips and a TP of 15 pips. The graph for the short and long trades can be seen on the right. We are now placing this graphical representation next to the range. We find that this Monday it would not have been easy to make a good trade. On Tuesday you could have used a few opportunities in this constellation, on Wednesday it would have been a challenge and on Thursday almost impossible to complete a profitable trade. With a lot of luck you could have done it on Friday. In this constellation, a part-time trader would only have been able to get a good trade through once or twice this week. The biggest challenge was on Thursday as the range was only 10 pips. We are now reducing our stop to 2 pips. With a RRR of 3, the TP is also reduced. This means that our trading range is significantly smaller and the probability of trading profitably on this Thursday is higher. Let us take a brief look at this course again in the M1. I myself work with a stop of 2 pips and a TP of 3 pips. This is a gross RRR of 2 because my stop already includes the spread. Even in this weak volatility phase, you could have found 25 trading opportunities in these 3 hours. Of course, this only works with a special setup, you can find information about this in my numerous videos.
Which trading is actually suitable for a part-time professional, is it swing trading, day trading or scalping? The first challenge is that the part-time trader can only start trading at 4 or 5 p.m. to trade for a maximum of 2-3 hours. For this reason, he can theoretically only work as a swing trader or as a scalper. The problem is that a lot of part-time workers work with day trading strategies, I have just shown you why this goes wrong. The decision in favor of scalping is often difficult, as there is the stock market adage: back and forth empties pockets. Of course, a scalper pays more fees than a swing trader, but effectively makes more money in the same amount of time. Also take a look at my video about scalping, there you will find very interesting information. As a swing trader you work with large stops, small stakes, a high pip target and do few trades. As a scalper you work with small stops, use larger stakes to achieve a small pip target with significantly more trades at the same time. With a similar risk, I earn significantly more money within a shorter period of time, provided that the strategy is successful. Incidentally, I am of the opinion that the number of trades carried out contribute significantly to the experience of a trader. I also believe that a tennis player who has trained 1000 serves in four years has a clear disadvantage compared to his opponent who has trained a total of 50,000 serves in four years. Take a look at my paper airplane experiment again, we learn from it: The closer your goal is to the current price, the more accurate your prediction will be. This can be used to influence the probability in your favor.

I work with currency pairs because I always need a reference value from the past with my strategy. Here you can see the six largest currency pairs, which already account for 2/3 of the total forex turnover. Since the EURUSD is the largest, you will also find the largest big players in the world there. Here you can see the average ATR in the M1 in the individual currency pairs, which leads to a safety factor. The smaller the value, the higher the security. Another important value is the seconds to the breakeven point. In my constellation, I need an average of 20 seconds in EURUSD to reach my break-even point. That is why the euro US dollar is my favorite. A part-time trader has to act efficiently because he doesn't have that much time. Let us now consider which time unit is most efficient. The average ATR in the M1 is 1.5, the M5 candle reaches an ATR of 4 pips. If we calculate that down to the minute, this results in 0.8. We can see that the pip value per minute falls as the unit of time increases. Here you can see the number of zigzag lines that arise in the different time units and how many pip a zigzag line reaches in the average. That means in the M1 a change of direction occurs on average every 20 minutes and if I were to correctly act on all zigzag lines the potential of 264 pips would result. It is not crucial to exhaust the total potential, rather it is crucial to have a potential first. And that is highest in the M1.

So let's come back to the pip value per minute. At the start, I get into trading. The candle reaches 2 pip after 1 minute, so the pip value per minute is 2. The pip value for the next candle is 1.25 and the third candle is 1.16. Now the price is running down the pip value is 0 .25 and is reduced to 0.2 after the fifth candle. The price goes up more strongly at the end and reaches 4 pip after 6 minutes. The pip value per minute is 0.66. We reached the highest pip value per minute after just 1 minute, which would have been the optimal time for me to get out. Why? We see the average ATR of 1.5 and the results we get per minute during our trading. The risk value is calculated from this, the smaller it is, the less risk I have to take in trading. This means that if the pip value per minute is below the ATR, the greater my risk automatically becomes. Now many will think well after 1 minute he have reached two pips, but four pips after 6 minutes is twice as much. That's right, the number of pips is twice as high, but you also have to take three times as high a risk. And from the point of view of probability, that is not wise and certainly not efficient.

Let's see how many candles are above the ATR, for this I analyzed 65,000 candles from M1 to H4. For us traders, it is precisely these candles that are important because they bring us to profit quickly. These are the little breakout candles. In the M1, the average ATR in the last 65,000 candles was only 1.4. 43% of the candles were above the ATR and 57% below the ATR. With 1440 day candles, 619 are above and 821 candles are below the average. In the M5 only 40% of the candles are above the ATR and in the M 15 only 36% of the candles. After that, not much changes. That means in the M1 I have an advantage of 20% over the M15 to get a stronger movement candle. And now it's getting really exciting. In EURUSD I analyzed the M1 candles in the ATR area for four weeks. From Monday to Thursday, as Friday ends at 10:00 p.m. The green fields show the candles that reach an ATR greater than 1.4 on the right side we see the respective time. And now we let the four weeks run through completely from midnight to midnight. We start in the Asian time and find that the volatility in this area is relatively low. The market in Frankfurt opens around 8:00 a.m. and London is added at 9:00 a.m. the volatility rises sharply. Around noon the volatility decreases a bit and at 2:30 p.m. when New York hits the market, 90% of the candles are now above the ATR. As soon as London, Frankfurt and the USA leave the market, volatility will drop significantly. Let's get to the result, between 8:00 a.m. and 7:00 p.m. the average pip value per minute is over 1.4. From 7 p.m. to midnight, the average pip value per minute is still higher than in the Asian market. The optimal range in the euro US dollar is between 8 a.m. and 7 p.m., because there 76% of all candles are above the ATR. From 8 p.m. to midnight, 30% of all candles are above the ATR and from 0 to 8 a.m. only 10% of all candles. From 3 p.m. to 5 p.m., almost 90% of all candles are above the average ATR. For the part-time traders who trade between 5pm and 8pm, there are also good opportunities, as the average pip value per minute is 1.5. This makes it possible to trade profitably in this area as well.

Today we first created your part-time ticket to success. This means that in the future you will be able to trade very successfully even in very difficult market phases, although you can only start at around 4 or 5 p.m. This means that we have first created the basis for successful part-time trading. Next up is the efficiency of your personal strategy. How do you manage to reach your breakeven point as quickly as possible and at the same time instead of € 16,000 in loss only € 160? And how can you invest part of this remaining € 15,840 in such a way that you reach your breakeven point even faster? We will talk about this in great detail next week, otherwise this video would have lasted over 1 hour. The topic will be: efficiency in a part-time job, lose 100 times less . I wish you a very successful week, stay healthy and I look forward to seeing you again.



Kind regards Michael

M1 breakout candles



Hello dear subscribers,

In my new video (last post) I highlighted the M1 breakout candles in EURUSD, which achieve an above-average ATR. These are exactly the candles that quickly get us into breakeven. This significantly reduces our initial risk, where we are in the red. With this information you can optimize your probability of winning.

At this point, once again a big thank you to all subscribers who support this blog so well. I wish you a great weekend and continued success in retail.

Kind regards Michael

Hi Michael,
here I have made a somewhat simpler statistic (hourly ranges):

Hello Georg,

a great idea for a condensed overview. This will surely help many of us who saw my last video. Thank you very much, as always a very professional job.

Kind regards Michael

For all subscribers to this blog:

(I can highly recommend the Swingman blog to you, as you will find very creative ideas of different concepts and excellent auxiliary indicators there. By the way, Swingman is the number 1 of the German high impact members at Forex Factory. Just take a look)

Efficiency, losing 100 times less on a part-time basis



Hello dear subscribers,

the new video is online and, as always, you will first receive the English translation. You can find the link from the video at the end of my post.


Today I will show you how a part-time trader who tries to break even, loses only € 160 instead of € 16,000 and has the same learning effect as someone who has lost € 15,480 more. In addition, I will show you exactly how you can reach your breakeven point much more efficiently and at what point it makes sense to recoup your losses. We will also look at real examples from practice. Since this video builds on my previous video, I would like to briefly summarize the most important findings of the last video. In the last video we talked about the truth as a beginner trader. The things that are promised to us by many trading coaches only encourage us to spend money that does not help us in the end. We looked at various examples of the RRR and found that a high number of pips usually cannot be achieved in day-to-day business. For this reason it is important to reduce the trading range. In addition to the RRR, the win rate is also a decisive factor. As a part-time trader, you are only forced to trade at certain times, unfortunately the volatility is often a bit lower there. In order to trade consistently and profitably in these markets too, it is essential to work with a small stop. The EURUSD is particularly suitable here, as you can trade there with an above-average pip value per minute until 9:00 p.m.

In my last video I went into more detail about the pip value per minute. This shows very effectively the ratio of risk and profit and when the optimal exit time is to achieve the lowest risk. Within a month we looked at the candles that had an above-average pip value per minute. These are the small breakout candles that are interesting for us as scalpers in order to achieve high profits within a short time. An evaluation was then made from these findings to show what percentage of the candles achieve an above-average ATR within a certain time. In the end, we found that a part-time trader in EURUSD, can expect an above-average pip value per minute between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. This also supports him in part-time trading. The ultimate goal of any trader is to break even. Here I would like to pass on my personal experience, which of course has not been scientifically proven. From my point of view, in order to break even, you need either 6000 screen hours with corresponding trades or 6000 trades of course with real money, since from my point of view you don't learn anything with demo accounts.

The special art is not to maximize profits, but to limit your losses. This is simply due to the fact that you always lose at the beginning and possible profits are based only on pure chance. Now let's calculate how a beginner can become successful with my approach. We calculate a spread of 0.5 pip, the stop is 1.5 and the TP is 3 pip. The gross RRR is thus 2. We are trading with 0.01 lot, the initial profit rate is 30% and the expected value is -5 cents. After ten trades we made a loss of € 0.50. This plan is now valid for one year. Now some will think, why one planning losses for a year. The answer is simple because the biggest challenge is breaking even. Only 10% of all traders reach this breakeven point, and those who do that are already among the 10% of the best traders. And that we understand each other correctly, breakeven means that I don't earn anything. Achieving this goal is the greatest challenge in trading, after which it becomes easier. In the second year we calculate with a profit rate of 35% and an expected value of -3 cents per trade. After the third year and a profit rate of 40%, we expect to break even. After a total of 6000 trades, this should be possible. If, contrary to expectations, the profit rate increases faster, you can gradually adjust the number of lots accordingly and thus achieve profitability more quickly. However, this always depends on the individual situation of the individual trader.

And now we are planning the next 7 years. In the first year we start with a 30% win rate. Trading with 0.01 lot, the expected value is -5 cents per trade, I do 8-10 trades per day in order to reach 2000 trades at the end of the year. As crazy as it sounds, we are planning a loss of $ 100 after one year. In the second year we increase our profit ratio, carry out 2000 trades again and plan a loss of € 60. In the third year we increase our profit rate to 40% and after 2000 trades we have reached our breakeven point. In the fourth year we increase the number of lots by ten times the value to 0.1. The expected value is € 0.25 and after 2000 trades we have won € 500. In the fifth year the profit rate is 50%, the number of lots is increased to 0.5 and the expected value is € 2.50. At the end of the year we made € 5000. That's a nice addition to income. We increase the number of lots to 1, with a win rate of 55% we reach € 15,000 in the sixth year. We have now completed 12,000 trades in the same market and are now taking the plunge into full-time employment. With a win rate of 60% with a stake of 3 lots, we achieve an expected value of € 30 per trade and a profit of € 60,000 before tax at the end of the year. Now let's look at the result. We made € 108,000 in profits in the seventh year, Loss of € 48,000, € 20,000 are deductible, so I have to pay tax on € 88,000 profit. Tax is € 23,000, I have € 60,000 in cash, I have € 36,000 left at the end. The effective capital gains tax is 38.7% instead of 26.37%. That means I have to work on my profit quota in the future in order to save taxes more efficiently. All in all, an income of 3000 net per month is a nice sum that can of course be increased gradually. Incidentally, if I carry out the same strategy in the futures market, I will suffer a loss of € 10,000 in the first year because I have to trade at least one lot. In the second year the loss is € 6,000 and in the third year I'm in breakeven there too. Now of course everyone will think that if you make more losses, you would of course have to get more profits in return. However, this is a mistake. If I trade 1 lot in the Forex market, I earn just as much as if I trade one lot in the futures market. Of course, the future data is important in order to make trading decisions from it, which is why I already work with this exchange data on a daily basis.

A friend of mine, worked up into my setup some time ago, which took me about 100 hours. I also recommended him to start trading on a part-time basis, although he has already lost some experience and some € 10,000. After training, I made a plan for him. The initial capital is 3000 €, the leverage is 200, it trades with 0.01 lot, the initial profit ratio is 30%, the spread is 0.5, the stop is 1.5 and the TP is 3. Target in the first year 2000 trades, with an expected value of -5 cents. The risk per trade is 0.01%. I don't think there is any need to discuss that. The expected loss after one year is € 100. And that is exactly the goal after 2000 trades. A few days ago he called me and told me that he had already completed 153 trades in the real money account. I entered the number of trades in my planning and it turned out that he should have reached a loss of € 7.97. He then sent me his trades and I then evaluated them with my program. Not surprisingly, the result was a loss of € 7.93. That means he is absolutely on track, even though he has made losses. What is his goal in three years? He should reach his breakeven point! And now let's take a closer look at his trades. In almost 100 trades he has already shown that he is able to reach this breakeven point. There are still a few outliers that have to do with his previous trading style. This is an over trading, where he has repeatedly placed on short positions, even though the price wanted to continue to rise. Problem recognized Danger averted. On the positive side, it should be mentioned that the profit and loss ratio in the money area is significantly higher than the profit and loss ratio in the area of trades. The gross pip value per minute is also positive and the expected value as well as the profit and loss will improve in the next few months. And now you have to delve a little deeper into the matter: What were the losses and profits in the short trades, which quotas were achieved, where are the deficiencies and what is going well. We look at the same thing in the long trades. And at the end, consider the resulting profits and losses with the respective odds. Then there are a few important secondary aspects to consider that ultimately contribute to the overall result. Incidentally, this table is updated daily in order to draw conclusions from it.

We already know the planning for the first year. In the second year we plan a total loss of € 160 after 4000 trades. The breakeven point should be reached by the third year at the latest and no further loss should be made. As soon as the breakeven point has been reached, the number of lots can be increased individually in order to come into profit. This means that as soon as the equilibrium is reached in the profit and loss area, the lot can be increased. This is not necessary as long as losses are being made. When I want to learn motocross, I usually start with a small machine. As soon as I've mastered this sport, I can switch to a bigger machine at any time. However, as a beginner I wouldn't start out with a big machine. In the end, it is relatively easy to scale, the decisive factor is to break even once. You don't automatically get more profits just because you trade a higher number of lots. And that is the mistake of many beginners. There is another very important aspect: in the Forex market I lost € 160 after 6000 trades. In the future market I would lose 100 times. It doesn't matter if you lose 2.5 cents or € 25 per trade. First, you are just as angry about your losses and second, the learning effect is given in both cases, only that you lose 100 times less.

Instead of losing more money with a higher amount of solder, it is better to invest a few 1000 € in good hardware and software. You can find detailed information about this in these two videos. Hard skills and soft skills are also a decisive factor in reaching the breakeven point more quickly. For this I would look for a mentor who can save you a lot of time in the end. You can find more information in these two videos. In addition to the screen time, the number of trades that should only be carried out in the real money account is of course decisive. Demo accounts make absolutely no sense, as you cannot check your reactions in the event of loss. A trader has to learn to deal confidently with losses, otherwise he will never win. Money management is also a decisive factor in finding out exactly where the source of the error lies. When evaluating the trades you have to proceed precisely in order to draw knowledge from them and to make an adjustment. As you know, I work with a special setup that includes chart technology, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, algorithm analysis and sound analysis. So my setup runs according to the same principle over and over again, although it is of course regularly optimized.

I hope that in today's post I was able to show you that you can also become successful in the long term as a part-time trader. The big advantage is that I don't have to jump into the deep end and can gradually develop into a professional trader without making a big loss at the same time. This is easy on the nerves and is less of a burden on a partnership. I think that if you approach your partner with such a strategy and show him what you are doing there every evening in front of his screen, then the willingness to support should be significantly greater than if you lose a few thousand euros every year. Please consider that 50% of your success depends on your partner. Your partner can support you or slow you down. Communication is the only thing that matters. If you go into business for yourself, the bank also wants you to do some financial planning before giving you any money. If you inform your partner as comprehensively as a bank in the future, the support will improve significantly. And that can have a lasting effect on your success. I keep my fingers crossed for you and I wish you the best of luck so that in the future you will achieve the things that you have set out to do.




Kind regards Michael

Maximum loss of € 160 as a scalper



Hello dear subscribers,


the new video is online and, as always, you will first receive the English translation. You can find the link from the video at the end of my post.


Today's video is about the most important topic, the breakeven point, which 90% of all traders have not yet reached. I will show you exactly which points you have to pay attention to in order to reach this breakeven point as efficiently and quickly as possible. With my approach and a subsequent strategic analysis, you don't lose more than 160 euros. For this purpose, I will present you practical results from a trading beginner who started trading as a part-time scalper only a few weeks ago. Very interesting findings come to light that can save you a lot of money in the future. I know countless traders who have lost many thousands of euros in trading. As a part-time trader, they often use strategies that are only suitable for day traders. We have already noticed that a part-time trader can only be active as a swing trader or scalper due to the time.

The breakeven point is the most important factor as only 10% of all traders reach it. This breakeven point can be reached within 6000 hours or 6000 trades with certain conditions. Since a trader only loses at the beginning from the perspective of probability, he should first concentrate on limiting losses. He achieves this with a small number of lot and small stops. Once he has reached his breakeven point, he can focus on maximizing his profits by scaling. In practice, it usually works the other way around. A mathematical law also helps us with this. The law of large numbers is a limit theorem from probability that helps us in trading. In the simplest case, it describes that the relative frequency of a random event approaches the theoretical probability of this event if the random experiment is only carried out often enough. This means that we can use the sample mean to estimate the expected value of random variables well. The following applies: the larger the sample size, the more precise our expected value becomes. A large sample is therefore an important requirement so that you can make reliable estimates about your future expected value. And now I'll show you how we can increase the number of our trades.

Here we see an M1 chart in EURUSD with different zigzag lines within 80 minutes. A day trader, indicated by the red line, can trade two movements during this time. A minute scalper can do 16 movements and a seconds scalper can do 34 movements. What is the difference between a minute and a seconds scalper? The seconds scalper can also be in the market for a few minutes, but usually ends its trades earlier than the minute scalper. This means that in this example, a day trader has an entry opportunity every 40 minutes on average, the minute scalper every five minutes and the seconds scalper after 2.5 minutes, which results in the seconds scalper 48 chances within 2 hours and even 96 entry chances in 4 hours. As a rule, however, he will not use this completely. Now let's take a look at how long it takes a beginner to break even. A day trader has 4 hours a day, trades 250 days a year, carries out four trades per day, that's 1000 per year. That would take him 6 years and 6000 hours to break even. If he doubled the number of trades per day, he would cut the time in half. A minute scalper who trades 2 hours a day on 200 days creates 1500 trades per year and is already at breakeven after 4 years with 1600 hours of experience. With twice the number of trades, he already achieved the goal after two years. The reason why a scalper can break even after 1600 hours is simply the experience of the many different trades. The seconds scalper comes to the same result here, but is able to significantly increase the number of trades again and thus shorten the time to one year. We will see in practice later whether this number of trades is actually possible.

In order to break even within a year, a few prerequisites are necessary. First, the spread should be cheap, the stop is 1.5 pip and the TP is 3 pip. We trade with the smallest lot size and that is only possible in the Forex market. In addition, for our trading decisions we need real stock exchange data, a special screen structure, a high-quality workstation and stock exchange software that is specially filtered and tailored to seconds scalping. There is also a clear strategy. In the area of technical analysis, I work exclusively with limit orders, my self-developed bionic candle supports me in chart technology, the strength of market and limit orders support me in algorithm analysis, the currency strength of the euro or dollar give me important fundamental data and my special sound analysis helps me get in and out. In practice it sounds like this. By the way, in the end the complicated thing is not reading out the charts, but programming the filter settings.

In my last video, I already described the seven phases to success, with the aim of achieving the main occupation in phase 7 and earning a net income of € 3000 per month from it. Today we're going to look at exactly those three phases to break even. In the first phase we calculate a loss for the first 2000 trades with an expected value of -5 cents per trade. In the second phase the expected value is -3 cents per trade and in the third phase we want to break even. Let's take a closer look at this process. In phase 1A we calculate the first 666 trades with an expected value of -7 cents per trade. In phase 1B we calculate 668 trades with -5 cents per trade and in phase 1C we expect 666 trades with -3 cents per trade. So the result after 2000 trades is a loss of € 100. Phase 2A has an expected value of -5 cents. Why is it higher than in phase 1C? The beginner should have the chance to achieve his goals without having too much pressure. Phase 2B at -3 cents and phase 2C at -1 cents. The result after the completed phase 2 is a loss of € 60. The total loss is € 160. The last phase 3 begins with an expected value of -3 cents, after which we reach the breakeven point and at the end even get a little profit. However, the overall result is zero because we had to make up for the previous loss. Then we can deal with scaling and profit maximization.

The big question is: how do we get to the breakeven point as quickly as possible? The answer is: with clear, traceable controls. Here you can see already known control factors that show you your current status in trading. I have added ten important points to this that I have developed for myself over the years. We'll go into that in a moment. In my last video I reported that in over 100 hours I shared my strategy with a good friend. He now has the same elaborate technology and equipment as me. However, he does not yet have the same experience as he is still an absolute beginner in scalping. In 15 trading days he has now completed 705 trades, during which he had also a week of vacation. From his point of view, as a part-time trader, in the evening from 4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. are 30 trades possible. Now let's take a closer look at his result of the 705 trades. On the short side, he traded 4.19 lots, of which he lost 2.97 lots. 423 short trades were completed, positive is, the profit trades reached more pip. The gross pip value was 3.21 with the net pip value at the losses being higher. On average he was 4.3 minutes per trade in the market, positive the winning trades ran longer than the losing trades. The CRV is 1.49 and the pip per minute ratio is 0.43 these values should be closer together. The profit quota is within the agreed framework. With a CRV of 1, the win rate would be as much as 44.2%. The expected value is -4 cents and the loss per minute is -1 cent. He lost € 48 in the short trades and won € 30. The total result for the short area is € -17.98. He traded less long than short. It was also significantly longer in the long trades, even though he had a smaller pip values per minute. The CRV is similar, but the pip per minute ratio is significantly better. The profit ratio in the long segment was also significantly higher, which in this case resulted in a significantly better expected value. The loss was also significantly lower here. Normally everyone would now say that they should concentrate more on the long area, but as you can see there is much higher potential in the short area. In the past he was a typical long trader in the DAX and S&P, so the shorts are a big challenge at first.

Here we look at all the losers with the winners. With 6.3 minutes per trade, he has been in the market for far too long, the profit rate is better than agreed, as is the expected value. He lost € 21.70 but in which area can you gain experience and complete 705 trades with so little loss? In this comparison chart you can see that he is still a bit long oriented. Overall he won 59 € lost 80 € the result is 21 €. A loss of € 49 was planned, but it has reached € 22. He did very well for the first goal. Without broker costs, he would even be € 13.70. That shows that he is on the right track. Since this value is below 100%, this shows that the broker has earned more than he himself. In total, the broker has earned € 35.40. Now some will say, I knew it, as a scalper you pay an infinite number of broker fees. Let's take a closer look at whether that's really the case. I have an old evaluation here where I traded 80 trades in two days with one lot each. My result was € 888, the broker earned € 415. Now everyone would say the broker earns half of what you earn. First you have to know that I will get a small discount of 25%, that's € 103.75. This increases my profit to € 992. In this case, the broker would earn 26%, but the point of view is not yet entirely correct. My profit totaled € 1186.31 and the broker gave me an additional € 103.75 discount. With that I earned a total of € 1290.06. The broker is not responsible for the loss I caused by my wrong decisions. The broker receives € 311, so the effective share of the broker is 19%. From my point of view, that's ok. Of course, a day trader pays less fees because he of course also trades significantly less. But we know the higher the number of trades, the more experience we get and the faster we reach our breakeven point. And in the scalping area this is much faster than in day trading. The question in the end is do we want to cut fees or reach our profit zone faster?

Let us now return to the evaluation of the scalping beginner. The minus return is 0.72%. All in all, we expect a total loss of 5% after 6,000 trades and the risk per trade is 0.01%. This is a peak value, with so less money, that is only possible in the Forex market. He traded a total of 7.1 lots and eight trades were in breakeven. He clearly exceeded the target value of 100 with 228%, since the expected value was originally -7 cents. He invested one euro to earn 73 cents. This is absolutely great to start with. In addition, we can see some graphics that help us with the further evaluation. Of course, all executed trades are shown again individually. We see the entry time and on the left how long it took for the next trade to be completed. 297 short trades were lost, each short trade lasted an average of 2.5 minutes and here we see how many seconds it was in the trade. Here are the data for the short winners, long losers, and long winners. The respective profit and loss, as well as the cumulative value. With this view, the individual trades can be analyzed excellently.

Let us first consider the graphical evaluation of the loss trades. It is noticeable that the loss series get smaller at the end. It is also noticeable that the profits are getting bigger and bigger, although the breakeven point is the first goal. With 705 trades, my friend has only covered 12% of the way to reach his breakeven point. With this table you can of course display countless evaluations in order to get to the bottom of the individual problems. But that would go beyond the scope of today. However, I would like to show you one little thing that ultimately changes the result decisively. A stop of two pips, including the spread, was agreed, which in the end results in a loss of 17-20 cents per lost trade. You can see that at the beginning the stop was was enlarged and then, which became more and more dramatic in the end. Incidentally, only 1% of the stops that were made were successful, so you should generally avoid them. Now I've just made a new calculation of what it would look like if my friend hadn't enlarged his stops. Let's take a look at the result now. Here we see the graphic representation where the stops have been drawn and below what it would have looked like if the stop had been adhered to. Instead of a loss of € 21.70, the loss would only be € 12.45. That's a 43% difference. The CRV would improve from 1.48 to 1.67, which is over 13%. This would also improve efficiency by 13%. The decisive point, however, lies in the expected value, which would improve from -3 cents to -2 cents, that is a huge 33%. Perhaps you remember this table, an expected value of -7 cents was planned for the first 666 trades. Without following the stop, he would already have been -2 cents and would have achieved an even better result. This is a target value that he should only reach after 3,500 trades. Based on the graphics you can see that it is usually not worth enlarged the stop.


There are 1000 ways to achieve the goal. It is important that you know exactly where the individual sources of error lie, because only then can you do something about it. This means that with strategic money management there is a clear strategy to achieve the goal in a relaxed manner. Because we should note: If you make a mistake and don't correct it, you commit another mistake. As it stands now, my friend will reach his personal breakeven point by the end of the year and that within six months. His maximum loss will be € 160. In the next year we will then take care of maximizing profits and gradually increase the number of lots from 0.1 to five lots. He would then be able to generate some € 10,000 in pre-tax income in the next year. Even if it were only half of it or, in the worst case, no profit at all, he would have achieved one goal in any case: his breakeven point. And that would make him one of the 10% of the best traders in the world after just one year. And I think that's a nice goal to get up motivated every morning. I hope that I was able to show you how important it is to analyze your trades in depth in order to draw insights for the next trading day. Only those who are aware that they have lost their way can change the path in order to achieve the goal. I will keep my fingers crossed for you that you will also achieve your goal and if the information helps you, I will be happy if you recommend this channel to others.




I wish you all the best in the future, best regards Michael.

Hi Bionics why do you keep posting these blank posts?

Hello Wags, we finally found out it was my grandson who made fun of me again and again. I thought I was crazy or someone hacked my account. I have also changed my password a few times. He no longer gets the cell phone to supposedly listen to music. This should close the case. I apologize for the inconvenience and thank you very much for the message. Kind regards Michael

Lol Kids

Hello Wags, you are right. The bad thing is, I can't even be mad at my grandson. I gave him my cell phone voluntarily, he didn't hack any passwords, he was very creative and didn't cause any harm. Maybe he should study computer science later I wish you a successful trading week. Greetings Michael

Hi Michael

Yes i also have my grandson with me at the moment, he is lovely but does not stop talking lol (A sign of intelligence), but is very distracting

We are currently isolating as covid delta is rife in our area, my grandson has it with no symptoms at all, my eldest grandaughter is negative, New grandaughter 3 months old is positive with very mild symptoms, my wife negative, eldest daughter 28 years old is positive (mother of my grandchildren) and is having medium symptoms, my youngest daughter 23 years old is positive mild symptoms

I am enjoying your thread so far btw and will keep popping back to finish reading it as i am also reading another very large thread, both threads compliment eachother i feel

How are your trading results?

Paul

Hello Paul,

I'm very sorry to hear that. I sincerely hope that your family will be fine as soon as possible. I'll keep my fingers crossed for you for that. Kind regards Michael

Thanks for the kind words michael

Again for all the stragglers who came later in this blog

New outbreak in 3 hours?




Hello dear traders,




Do you still remember June 16, 2021? There the big players had already collected bids in the euro US dollar days in advance. And at around 8:00 p.m. with the meeting of the FED they pushed the price down by 150 pips.

There is also a video where I pointed out a possible downward outbreak beforehand.

Inserted Video

In the last few days, I have noticed that there are similar processes in the euro US dollar.


For several days now, bids have been collected again and it seems that the same process could be repeated again.


From my point of view, the goal is to cut long-term long traders in their profits or even to stop them. As the first possible zone I see the area 1.162 and possibly we will also come into the 1.15 area.

Of course, I cannot say with certainty whether this will actually happen in 3 hours, but it is conceivable that the big players will do the same thing again. The last time there was no stop run in the opposite direction, that could possibly be different today. I'm very curious what happens later. By the way, tomorrow morning from 8:30 a.m. my new video will appear on the subject of demo accounts, foreign money accounts or real money accounts. It will be very exciting because it is about our emotions.

I wish you continued success in trading.

Kind regards Michael

Trading with debt capital, demo or real money?




Hello dear subscribers,


the new video is online and, as always, you will first receive the English translation. You can find the link from the video at the end of my post.

Today we're making a big movie , because we will compare the differences between debt capital, demo and real money trading. We look at the extent to which demo trading is helpful and also talk about the different emotions that we encounter every day in trading. We will also look at how we can optimally train these emotions in the future. In the overall result, you will at the end see a clear procedure with which you will have your emotions under control in the future. The choice is yours, you can choose to trade, where your chances of success are around 10%. Or you opt for self-employment where the chances of success are 5 times higher, at around 50%. Are you aware of these probabilities and still want to decide to trade? Okay, then we should ask ourselves a few questions first.

Why do you want to trade, who are you doing it for, in what time should it happen, what is your goal, how do you do it and who will help you? Let's start with the first question: why do you want to learn to trade? There are of course many answers to this question. Freedom, for example, can be one of them. Who are you doing this for For your family, for you, for the future. In what time do you want to reach your goal? Preferably as soon as possible, a realistic point in time would be in four years for a part-time job. What is your goal in trading? Of course the independence, as if we hadn't suspected it. The question is how do you do it? The answer: of course, this is only possible with a clear strategy and support. At the end: who will help you? It is best to have a reliable mentor who may even accompany you for many years. Take a look at my two videos. The first:



Analysis, what do you need a trading coach for? The second video:



You should do without these trading coaches and this is how you will find a suitable mentor

In these posts you will get a lot of ideas on how you can possibly find your optimal mentor in trading in the future.

There are basically three different approaches to learning to trade. Firstly you trade with debt capital, secondly you trade in the demo account or thirdly you trade with your own money. Let us first analyze the debt capital. Again, we should ask ourselves a few questions. Why, for whom, in what time, what is the goal, how do you do it, who will help you? Let us first start with the question why would someone want to trade with debt capital? Well either he has no money or he doesn't want to lose his hard earned money. First of all, neither answer exactly suggests that the trader is a professional. Would you give money to a trader who doesn't have one himself or who is unwilling to risk his own money? Now the external lenders have already asked themselves the question and for this very reason an applicant must first qualify for such a loan account. There are different models for this that I do not want to go into in detail today.

In most cases, such a qualification initially costs a few € 1,000 in fees. When you've got the qualification and training, you end up being an order taker. You are only allowed to trade in certain markets at certain times, you will receive clear instructions about your stop size and your maximum drowdown. When you trade you pay monthly fees for the software and the equipment as well as you also pay the spread that you cause by your trade. Of course, the spread is often cheaper, but many ask themselves why they should pay the spread, even though the lender initially withholds over half of the winnings. Now the thing is very clear, you are nothing more than a freelance commercial agent and you should urgently be careful in this constellation that you do not get into the area of bogus self-employment. In what time will you be successful, well that's in the stars, because of course nobody in trading can tell you that. What is the goal? Your goal is clear, you would like to become successful without investing your own capital.

The lender of course also wants to be successful and expects you to give him half of your profit at the beginning and pay monthly for the software and your spread. How do you manage to achieve this? Probably with a lot of money and time. Who will help you with this? Now, of course, the external lender will support you wherever he can, but please do not believe that he will do everything possible to make you successful. Because whether you make it or not is not relevant for the external financier. Why is that? Of course, the external financier has a large number of applicants and prospective traders who are in training. With 100 applicants who each pay € 3,000, that's already an impressive sum of € 300,000. The bad applicants are selected from and, of course, only the best remain in the end. That means the external financier has to sort out the class from the crowd. By the way, if you haven't made it in the end, you can usually not do much with the information you have been taught, since every debt capital lender has his own system that you of course cannot take with you in the end. Most third-party funder systems are a type of franchise, with the emphasis on the second syllable. (In Germany the 2nd syllable has a meaning that would be comparable to the word crap or sh..)

Let's move on to the next challenge, trading in a demo account. First of all, trading in the demo account is a kind of trading in the matrix, i.e. in an unreal environment. Why is this unreal? Well, because you are investing money in a virtual market to which the market ultimately cannot react. Perhaps you've already played with a flight simulator on your computer and actually managed to take off or land an Airbus. Of course, there have been countless attempts to find out whether a passenger could land an airplane in an emergency. That actually went well a few times in the flight simulator. But imagine now that the pilots would have failed on a real flight and you would now have to land a real airplane as a layman. What we must not forget are our emotions and it is precisely these that ultimately ensure that the aircraft does not hit the ground in one piece. It is similar with a real money account in contrast to a demo account. Trading in a demo account affects us more peripherally, because in the end we actually have nothing to lose. Our emotions are not as pronounced as in real money trading.

What I find particularly dangerous about demo accounts is the data that is made available to us by the various brokers. These differ considerably from reality. Here you can see my Bionic candle in a demo account. I used the Bionic candle because you can see the deviations here immediately. There are 23 yellow candles, 17 blue candles and 16 dojis in the M1 chart. And now let's take a look at the real money account with the same broker. All of a sudden there are 31 yellow candles, 21 blue candles and 13 dojis. First of all, this clearly proves that there are different price positions. How am I supposed to learn to trade correctly with wrong price positions? Let's take a closer look at the discrepancy. You see that there are clear differences that, at times, can have great implications. This is not noticeable with the normal candles, but with my Bionic candle you can see the difference immediately. Of course, I also compared the exchange rate data between the demo and the real money account and found a discrepancy of over 22%. That would be a reason for me not to trade with a demo account.

In many of my videos, I have already explicitly shown the effort the big players put in to strategically stop scalpers, day traders and swing traders. The market is regularly pushed up and down in zigzag lines and analyzed which stops are triggered. I will go into this in more detail in one of my next posts. Now imagine that someone is trading with 50 lots in a demo account and is amazed at the end that he has even won several € 1,000. This scenario is so unrealistic, I would like to prove to you why that is so. Imagine that you are trading in the five largest currency pair in the world, the US dollar and the Canadian dollar. You now invest a real 50 lot in this currency pair. In the forex US dollar Canadian dollar, 3.3 million lots are traded every day, that is 2000 lots per minute. If you invest five lots, that corresponds to a minute share of 0.3%. This is already noticeable in the forex market. To fly under the radar you should be 0.1% or less. With 50 Lot the big players have you on their screen immediately, and you can guess three times who will be stopped next? With such a lot size one naturally has to think about other order types than the market order. In the futures market, 330,000 Canadian dollar lots are traded per day, which is 200 lots per minute. If you trade with five lots they already have you on the screen and with 50 lots you are even trading 25% of the total minute turnover. It's a bit like the mouse trying to sneak past the sleeping cat with a loud radio. We already know now, that the demo data differ considerably from the data of the real money accounts in the Forex market.

It is alarming that the future data is also incorrect. Now many will be surprised and say: Why? The data come from the stock exchange and since there is only one exchange, the data must also be correct. Unfortunately, this is not the case. There are different data feed providers that are in turn sold by different brokers. Take a data feed from CTS and compare it with Rhythic. We use a footprint chart for each. As a result, you will find that these two footprint charts show different numbers, even though you are looking at the same unit of time. The high-frequency traders and big players use data feeds that are updated ten times per second. These special data feeds cost approximately $ 120,000 per month. Look, a lot of us use data feeds that cost between $ 10-30 a month. We cannot seriously assume that these data feeds are actually 100% correct. From my point of view, these are data feeds that have already been cleaned up by the high-frequency traders. Despite the not entirely correct data, I still found a solution that was optimal for me. I compared many different forex and future brokers in the euro US dollar and selected exactly those where the price developments were most consistent with each other.

Here we see two tick charts in EURUSD, on the left in the futures market and on the right in the forex market. Of course, we have to note that these are two different markets, but the price movements are almost tickly accurate. By the way, with this representation you can also check exactly whether the forex broker is transmitting exact data. I trade in the forex market and make my decisions based on the stock market data. Since I have compared the forex with the future data, it doesn't really matter to me whether the data is correct or not. It is only important that my data behave parallel to each other. With that I created my own virtual market. There is another important aspect that we must not neglect. From my point of view there are four different types of traders. First of all, there is the pragmatic trader who owes his success or failure to his extravert, speculative thinking. The experimental trader builds on extraverted, intuitive feeling. The reflective trader wins through introverted, sensitive feeling, while the introverted empirical thinking helps the synthetic trader. Each of these four different personalities uses different approaches to achieve the goal. There are scalpers, day traders and swing traders who each pursue different approaches. The pragmatic trader naturally has his greatest advantages in the pragmatic area. For example, he is demanding, determined, strong-willed, goal-oriented and fact-oriented. However, this also means that there can be individual weaknesses in the synthetic, reflective and experimental areas. Only those who know their own strengths and weaknesses can respond individually and thus behave in a success-oriented manner. This is especially true on the stock exchange. I will go into this topic again in a separate video.
Let's now look at the harsh reality, i.e. trading with real money on the stock exchange. Basically, we have already established that we can only bring out our hidden emotions through extreme situations on the stock market. And it is precisely these hidden emotions that we have to train over and over again in order to be able to control them in the long term. And that only works through extreme gains or losses. On this subject I strongly recommend you to watch my last four videos:



First: Why 90% of all traders lose in the long run.



Second: Part-time to become a successful trader.



Third: 100 times fewer losses as a part-time jobber.




And fourth: A maximum of € 160 loss when scalping.

Incidentally, these videos build on each other. So we know that you can train your emotions just like a muscle. The question now arises as to how we are able to train our emotions regularly and to condition them accordingly. And this conditioning is ultimately the decisive success factor. There's no point in going to the gym and exercising your muscles regularly if you don't know anything about conditioning.

In my last videos we already talked about it in detail, We start with 0.01 lot, a win rate of 30% and an expected value of -5 cents. This inevitably means that we lose 1400 times in every 2000 trades. In the second phase we continue to trade with 0.01 lots, a profit rate of 35% and an expected value of -3 cents. For every 2000 trades we will lose 1300 times. In the final phase, we achieve a 40% win rate and break even. Out of 2000 trades we will lose 1200 times. This means that with my approach you will lose almost 4000 times. This gives you 4000 times the opportunity to condition your hidden emotions accordingly. Let's take a look at some hidden emotions.

Many traders have the uncomfortable habit of selling too early just to finally take a profit in addition to the previous loss cycle. For fear of losses, very promising trades are not even entered into. Under certain circumstances, it happens that a real series of losses awaits the trader. If you go long the market goes short, if you go short the market goes long immediately. The question is how to deal with this situation. The market is going in your direction and developing well, your TP would have been reached a long time ago, but you always want more. Suddenly there is a strong countermovement, you are just about to break even or even suffer a loss. After you have been stopped countless times, you now do without your stop and achieve very large losses in the process. In certain situations you are unfocused or careless and thereby fail to achieve your goals. The market is moving down and you get in a few times to trade the reversal or pullback up. You will be stopped every time. Like an offended child, you keep pushing the buy button to recoup your losses andyou keep losing again ans again. It gets really bad if you even increase your position. It gets very dramatic if you regularly enlarge your stops. We talked about this point in great detail in my last video. If you don't stick to your own strategy, why did you even impose rules on yourself? With this approach we can put our emotions to the test 4000 times. This is a huge opportunity that will pay off in the long term.

Even if your trading plan is very structured, extreme emotions will screw up all of your odds. In such a phase we let our fear-driven survival strategies coduct. Then come up with statements like: I'll show the market, or this time I won't let myself be stopped. It is really bad if you want to clean up losses immediately. In our life we have been taught that we must correct a mistake immediately. In trading, however, it is exactly the other way around. There you have to wait and see. If we make a mistake in trading, then of course we have lost money. But it must be clear to us that we can only correct this mistake once we have found a new entry opportunity. And that can sometimes take a while. Many traders are also afraid of missing out if a price goes up or down sharply. With my approach, I have a new chance every two and a half minutes, so I'm never afraid of missing out. We just have to be aware that in the beginning we only lose. That is why we focus on limiting losses and working with very small positions. With a clear strategy we only lose a maximum of € 160 after 6000 trades. You can find information about this in my previous videos. After these 6000 trades we finally reach our breakeven point and can then shift our priorities towards profit maximization. With a clever scaling, we manage to build up an interesting profit within a short time. The nice thing about our initial losses, which we kept as small as possible. They are not noticeable in the end. And why? Because at the beginning we trade with a low lot, because we know that we will only lose. If we have our emotions under control, we can turn our position size up at any time and compensate for the small initial losses very quickly. The main reason a beginner loses so much is primarily because of his or her emotions. In principle, one day you have to be able to trade on a large real money account as if it were ultimately a demo account.

Conclusion:

So our goal is to do our trading with as few emotions as possible and to accept losses as the most normal in the world. You can do this by writing down your trading setup, avoiding over-trading and taking small breaks from time to time. Unfortunately, we humans are not suited to holding our own mirror in front of our faces. And for this very reason I recommend you to find a suitable mentor, by the way, this is not a trading coach who only offers you mass-produced goods. With a demo account you will not reach your goal in the long term and if you watch my last videos you will see that even with a real money account you don't have to lose a lot to reach your breakeven point. Of course, you need an appropriate setup for this, a mentor who is not after your money and who accompanies you for a few years.




Here is my new video:

I keep my fingers crossed that you will make the right decisions in the future and I wish you every success.

Kind regards Michael

Hello dear subscribers, I would like to take this opportunity to thank everyone who regularly supports this blog and thus helps everyone. Thank you for that, I will continue to try to provide interesting topics for you. I wish you all a nice weekend and good luck for next week. Greetings Michael

Hello dear subscribers, on the next page you will find the new contribution to the new video. Greetings Michael