The Really Useful Grains/Soft Thread | Forex Factory

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The Really Useful Grains/Soft Thread

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  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 26, 2021 12:06pm Jun 26, 2021 12:06pm
Bull market in grains with soya leading the way for wheat and corn. With many countries limiting export and others looking to grab what they can to ensure supply means this bull market isn't stopping soon.

Buckle up!
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #2
  • Jun 28, 2021 5:34am Jun 28, 2021 5:34am
If I understand it correctly, this can lead to a peak in prices, but this impulse will have the opposite effect when the stocks are full and there is an oversupply of goods on the domestic market, exports increase and the price falls again.
  • #3
  • Jun 29, 2021 7:43pm Jun 29, 2021 7:43pm
Hi Marcel

bases of the shortage is in part climatic, global cooling not warming imo. cooling means cooler weather (of course) and loads of rain. there has been crop failure in china which is the main driver but also in south america (drought). the other main driver is western policy against farmers in favour of global warming policies. my tin hat theory is this is being done on purpose.

the outcome will be a global protein shortage, leading us to accept plant and insect protein. bugs as food has already been allowed in the EU.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #4
  • Jun 29, 2021 7:43pm Jun 29, 2021 7:43pm
i've taken a long wheat @ 645.50
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #5
  • Jun 29, 2021 8:07pm Jun 29, 2021 8:07pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
i've taken a long wheat @ 645.50
What’s your target?
  • #6
  • Jun 30, 2021 5:26am Jun 30, 2021 5:26am
Quoting drewshu
{quote} What’s your target?
i'm looking for 662 ish. the way it's trading it looks like i'm going to get stopped out. we'll see.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #7
  • Jun 30, 2021 5:37am Jun 30, 2021 5:37am
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} i'm looking for 662 ish. the way it's trading it looks like i'm going to get stopped out. we'll see.

added some more @642
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #8
  • Jun 30, 2021 8:36am Jun 30, 2021 8:36am
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} added some more @642
stopped out. back to watching.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #9
  • Edited 9:54am Jun 30, 2021 8:43am | Edited 9:54am
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} stopped out. back to watching.
looks like a stop hunting exercise. i've take a small long here @638
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #10
  • Jun 30, 2021 9:55am Jun 30, 2021 9:55am
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} looks like a stop hunting exercise. i've take a small long here @638
correct assessment on stop loss hunting. I"m looking for 663 ish as a intial target
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #11
  • Jun 30, 2021 11:29am Jun 30, 2021 11:29am
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} correct assessment on stop loss hunting. I"m looking for 663 ish as a intial target
i was thinking i'd made a mistake getting back in. but having been out and return it is currently on 668ish, top was 674. still holding.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #12
  • Jun 30, 2021 11:46am Jun 30, 2021 11:46am
closed out @672ish.

usda published the crop report for wheat, corn soya etc today at 12:00 est (the all did well). no surprise i could see the build out before hand.

edit - chart added
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2021-06-30_12-48-13.png Size: 141 KB
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #13
  • Jun 30, 2021 11:54am Jun 30, 2021 11:54am
Inserted Video


The extreme drought has already forced some Utah farmers to walk away from crops in thirsty fields just to get through a very dry year.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #14
  • Jun 30, 2021 1:18pm Jun 30, 2021 1:18pm
my new target for wheat as it just kept on going up is 688.25. no position at the moment but will buy the dip in the after market if allowed.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #15
  • Jul 1, 2021 8:31am Jul 1, 2021 8:31am
damn - closed my wheat trade waaaaay toooo early!!!!

softs are going to go on and on imo.

take courage and buy any dip?
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #16
  • Jul 2, 2021 10:14am Jul 2, 2021 10:14am
Inserted Video


this guy makes his living promoting food shortages but some interesting points.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #17
  • Jul 6, 2021 9:54am Jul 6, 2021 9:54am
corn appears to be limit down. ouch. and sellers are still trying to get out. don't buy it imo.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #18
  • Jul 7, 2021 8:50am Jul 7, 2021 8:50am
should have shorted corn, from yesterday it was a no brainer. if she retraces I'll join in.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #19
  • Jul 8, 2021 8:38am Jul 8, 2021 8:38am
taken a long on soya bean @ 1364
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #20
  • Jul 13, 2021 9:52am Jul 13, 2021 9:52am
Quoting Mcbeaners
taken a long on soya bean @ 1364
I know I'm talking to myself (in the main) but profits from trading softs are exponential, ok losses can also be the same, but its a massive bull market and therefore risk is seriously reduced.

so far my soya trade is bringing home the bucks.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2021-07-13_10-50-24.png Size: 141 KB
In tea leaves we trust!
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