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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,461
  • Jun 20, 2021 12:26pm Jun 20, 2021 12:26pm
Experimenting a software
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Daily 20-06-2021.png Size: 107 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD H4 20-06-2021.png Size: 93 KB
  • #1,462
  • Jun 27, 2021 9:07am Jun 27, 2021 9:07am
Quoting Merka
Experimenting a software {image} {image}
To me that bearish movement on EURUSD H4 looks more like an extension, most likely wave C.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only wealth which you will keep forever is the wealth you have given away.
  • #1,463
  • Jun 27, 2021 11:01am Jun 27, 2021 11:01am
Quoting ByeMyDeposit
{quote} To me that bearish movement on EURUSD H4 looks more like an extension, most likely wave C. {image}
Agree
  • #1,464
  • Jun 27, 2021 11:18am Jun 27, 2021 11:18am
Net positions of USD has flipped to the short side since 15th June as per COT data, and there seems to be accumulation in EURO with the same data. So it seems there might be another minor push down in eur/usd and then a massive push up after the accumulation. This coincides with this weeks NFP. If eur/usd makes the down move before the nfp, expect bad figures in nfp and a good rise in eur/usd and also gold
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu12.png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gold1.png Size: 38 KB
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  • #1,465
  • Jun 27, 2021 2:49pm Jun 27, 2021 2:49pm
Quoting stringfx
Net positions of USD has flipped to the short side since 15th June as per COT data, and there seems to be accumulation in EURO with the same data. So it seems there might be another minor push down in eur/usd and then a massive push up after the accumulation. This coincides with this weeks NFP. If eur/usd makes the down move before the nfp, expect bad figures in nfp and a good rise in eur/usd and also gold {image} {image}
How do you label that entire A-B-C bearish movement on EURUSD H4 ?
If that A-B-C is an entire correction, how do you label the wave that I labeled as /B\ in this EURUSD Daily chart? As wave A of irregular wave B of higher degree or something else?
Fibo is relation between /A\ and /C\. MACD(5,34,5) levels: 0.005, -0.005.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 31 KB
Only wealth which you will keep forever is the wealth you have given away.
  • #1,466
  • Jun 30, 2021 5:44am Jun 30, 2021 5:44am
In my honest Opinion, DXY is in a correction to the upside with an Orange wave A-B-C to around 96.20 (give a few 15-20 pips). Currently on a 5th minor wave of orange A wave. Most probably it will correct to B wave during the NFP and when everyone is in the mood to sell DXY, the hedge funds will take dxy prices UP to Orange Wave C (5 waves to around 96.20). After which in my opinion, we should see a huge decline in DXY, thereby taking the currencies, equities and commodities to new high, and very higher levels.

Those who see this chart ... take care of prices when it reaches 50% as shown in the chart. good bullish chance for dxy until 96.20.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxydaily.png Size: 36 KB
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  • #1,467
  • Jul 1, 2021 12:34am Jul 1, 2021 12:34am
Since this is a Thursday and NFP is tomorrow, we might not see a 61.8%, but not impossible. 38.2 is only 15 pips more, There doesn't seem to be any resistance in that spot (38.2) from previous levels, and there is ISM manufacturing around 14:00 GMT, so anything can happen. I wouldn't take any new positions today judging by the market sentiment as of now. WE should wait for ISM to get over with; and see where dxy is heading, if it breaks 38.2 convincingly and not a fake out, then sell euro and aud until 61.8 of dxy. after which we will think of buying euro gbp and cad.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,468
  • Edited 2:25pm Jul 2, 2021 1:36pm | Edited 2:25pm
well, it seems like dxy could not reach 61.8 as mentioned in the last post. it was satisfied with 38.2 extension . Now i am pretty sure this is a B wave going down to 50%. The only thing about B wave is it's unpredictability . seems to have around 23 variants (similar to Covid 19). so conservatives better don't trade this wave and wait for a breakout from the high for the C wave up. Aggressive traders can trade this to at least 50% of the A wave. ( Remember B waves can go below A waves as well.) Then wait for your strategy to give you a signal for the start of C wave, either by oscillators or MAs or even supertrend. so here is another updated chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy.png Size: 28 KB
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  • #1,469
  • Jul 2, 2021 2:14pm Jul 2, 2021 2:14pm
Quoting stringfx
well, it seems like dxy could not reach 61.8 as mentioned in the last post. it was satisfied with 38.2 extension . Now i am pretty sure this is a B wave going down to 50%. The only thing about B wave is it's unpredictability . seems to have around 23 variants (similar to over Covid 19). so conservatives better don't trade this wave and wait for a breakout from the high for the C wave up. Aggressive traders can trade this to at least 50% of the A wave. ( Remember B waves can go below A waves as well.) Then wait for your strategy to give you a signal...
How much your fractal?.
  • #1,470
  • Jul 2, 2021 2:24pm Jul 2, 2021 2:24pm
Quoting corongumet
{quote} How much your fractal?.
i do not understand your question. sorry !
STING
  • #1,471
  • Jul 2, 2021 4:20pm Jul 2, 2021 4:20pm
Quoting corongumet
{quote} How much your fractal?.
I didn't get eather the question
  • #1,472
  • Jul 2, 2021 11:05pm Jul 2, 2021 11:05pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} i do not understand your question. sorry !
I mean fractal 5. Like ma 5 or etc. How much the lenght of fractal?.
  • #1,473
  • Jul 2, 2021 11:39pm Jul 2, 2021 11:39pm
Quoting corongumet
{quote} I mean fractal 5. Like ma 5 or etc. How much the lenght of fractal?.
There is no value for the fractal. If you are using MT4, then it's a built in tool. On your Chart, go to Insert, then go to indicators, then Bill Williams, then choose fractal.
If you are using any other charting tools, just search for it.
It is normally calculated with 5 successive candles, so maybe you are thinking that is the value . I hope this helps.
STING
  • #1,474
  • Jul 3, 2021 12:00am Jul 3, 2021 12:00am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} There is no value for the fractal. If you are using MT4, then it's a built in tool. On your Chart, go to Insert, then go to indicators, then Bill Williams, then choose fractal. If you are using any other charting tools, just search for it. It is normally calculated with 5 successive candles, so maybe you are thinking that is the value . I hope this helps.
Yes its i mean.
  • #1,475
  • Jul 3, 2021 3:24am Jul 3, 2021 3:24am
Quoting stringfx
Net positions of USD has flipped to the short side since 15th June as per COT data, and there seems to be accumulation in EURO with the same data. So it seems there might be another minor push down in eur/usd and then a massive push up after the accumulation. This coincides with this weeks NFP. If eur/usd makes the down move before the nfp, expect bad figures in nfp and a good rise in eur/usd and also gold {image} {image}
Still the same your view on this pair?
I think it will go up but figuring out the exact turning point (with an error of +-10 pips) is quite hard.
What do you use as entry signal?
Cheers
  • #1,476
  • Jul 3, 2021 6:33am Jul 3, 2021 6:33am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Still the same your view on this pair? I think it will go up but figuring out the exact turning point (with an error of +-10 pips) is quite hard. What do you use as entry signal? Cheers
Still same view - Yes, because as said before, we are on a correction uptrend in DXY which is inversely correlated with Eur. I am quite positive that the A wave of the dxy correction is over with that huge 4 hr candle down during NFP, so that means we are on a B wave down and this wave is quite unpredictable on fib retracement levels because it can go all over the place. usually 50% but not confirmed. Now 50% on eur/usd is around 200+ pips to the upside. It can still be more. After which i am expecting a C wave (5 waves down) for this pair which can be around 450 pips down . once this correction is over, then we can expect a total uptrend in eur/usd as the major 3rd wave down will start on dxy. Here are some charts.

I usually don't trade 1 hr and below, most of my trades are with a confirmation on H4. I use supertrend to support my EW and COT view. once confirmed i take multiple trades especially when i am on a 3rd wave with SL on swing High. Then i monitor trades every 4 hours and keep adding until i risk 5% but i also take in profits as I ride the trend, thereby minimising my risk.
You can also use Bill Williams alligator once the waves gives confirmation. 10 pips of SL seems too small for me in 4hr charts. i always use swing high which can be 30-35 pips.

This whole process should take the rest of the year at least.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU123.png Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy123.png Size: 28 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 SUPERTREND.mq4   4 KB | 454 downloads
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  • #1,477
  • Jul 6, 2021 1:30am Jul 6, 2021 1:30am
Dxy seems to be moving down nicely. On a 15 minute chart, we might be hitting some support now. so i have taken out some profits and will wait for some higher prices in dxy to get in again. 92.20 is 38.2 i will try to get in somewhere there and if it goes higher, the better. I am not trading DXY. so according to COT CAD seems most powerful, then GBP and then euro. so my trades are usd/cad sell, gbp/usd buy and eur/usd buy, until at least dxy hitting 61.8% , then we will see how the momentum of DXY goes. remember tomorrow around 18:00 GMT , FOMC minutes, good chance of taking the dollar higher for a B wave in a B wave.
At the moment we have just breached 23.6 retracement on the major wave. So there is a lot more to go down on this wave.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy15.png Size: 28 KB
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  • #1,478
  • Jul 6, 2021 1:42am Jul 6, 2021 1:42am
At this moment in time, if you notice, although dxy has hit the 161.8, eur/usd has not reached there yet. so most probably dxy will be ranging up and down in small phases, so that euro can get to 161.8, maybe some fundamentals also can help, i didn't check the minor ones for today. anyway, that is the reason i removed some profits so that i can buy euro at lower rate after the 4th wave. This is aggressive trading, so conservatives stay aside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,479
  • Jul 6, 2021 1:50am Jul 6, 2021 1:50am
Gold in my honest opinion has also reached some resistance for the time being. but this is a beast and be careful trading this. i am going to wait for this to come down to take a buy from 50% retracement onwards. i don't want to sell this for the retracement as it can be very aggressive going counter trend. There is no resistance from the past, it's just fib resistance, which is also scary.
So might as well wait for retracement if any to get in lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold 1h.png Size: 33 KB
STING
  • #1,480
  • Edited 5:58am Jul 6, 2021 5:24am | Edited 5:58am
At the moment looks like a good place to buy eur/usd, gbp/usd and sell usd/cad and usd/chf .
Next should be a 5 wave down move ...
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