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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #7,021
  • Jun 17, 2021 11:58am Jun 17, 2021 11:58am
Why not? Elliott Wave Theory is almost a hundred years old, and it still works.))
  • #7,022
  • Jun 18, 2021 5:14am Jun 18, 2021 5:14am
Quoting yahya11
{quote} you mean our trading system can work forever
Well it is not a system as such but more like interpreting what the charts are telling us and acting accordingly with risk management in place to put the mathematics very much in our favor.
  • #7,023
  • Jun 18, 2021 5:28am Jun 18, 2021 5:28am
Dear Alan,
Is your system still not taking full advantage of rsi, i.e. rsi support/resistance, rsi pattern etc.?
  • #7,024
  • Jun 18, 2021 10:54am Jun 18, 2021 10:54am
Quoting jewelnguyen
Dear Alan, Is your system still not taking full advantage of rsi, i.e. rsi support/resistance, rsi pattern etc.?
Not sure what you mean here. I haven't changed anything.

Supports are important to me along with a whole bunch of things such as divs and EMA levels. I suppose the main thing is the direction the market is moving so I can go with the flow. But this is only the physical aspect of the trades we must absolutely control it with money management to ensure we always have the edge in out favor.

Stop outs are just par for the course our winnings more than pay for any minor losses.
  • #7,025
  • Jun 18, 2021 9:34pm Jun 18, 2021 9:34pm
We are now at an interesting level....

The weekly was in div and that has returned to the average a nice number of pips. However it remains to be seen if the price can break the average because it has tested several times before and failed.

The monthly chart is still very much in bullish territory irrespective of this months pull back so far. It has only had three pull backs in the lest 13 months.

For me I would be watching for the weekly to break or bounce at the average and this should happen this coming week.
  • #7,026
  • Jun 19, 2021 9:33pm Jun 19, 2021 9:33pm
thanks Alan for your system
  • #7,027
  • Jun 21, 2021 4:27am Jun 21, 2021 4:27am
Could you explain a bit more detailed how you know a div fails to make it back to the EMA when trading real time? As about when do you expect it to make a higher high instead for example?
  • #7,028
  • Edited 6:58am Jun 21, 2021 5:34am | Edited 6:58am
I'm afraid this is impossible. Technically div is just a retard of the moving average on which is built the RSI after recalculation of the specified parameters in relation to price. Therefore it is impossible to know for sure whether the price will cross the average if there are divs on the indicator. By divs one can only judge the slowing down of the current movement. Therefore in Alan's system, the first input is used as a trial one.
If you refer to his post -
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post13583902
and to read it again, you will see that Alan says so about it. "... IF it crosses the average..."
  • #7,029
  • Jun 21, 2021 9:55am Jun 21, 2021 9:55am
I'm not sure impossible. I'd agree you can never know for certain of course, however there should be a way to trade it and I assume you'd be looking to the 1m chart to tell you wether or not the 5m div looks to fail.

But that's only my view on the topic.
  • #7,030
  • Edited 11:20am Jun 21, 2021 11:06am | Edited 11:20am
If we consider div M5 on M1 from the point of view of crossing EMA26 then of course this probability is higher. However you yourself know that the length of the movement is different every time and if so the presence of divs on the M5 does not guarantee the price crossing or rebound from the EMA. This is what I meant when I said that it is impossible to predict whether there will be a cross of the EMA or not. You can only find out after the fact.
Quoting Fantaburk
however there should be a way to trade it
I use wave analysis for this purpose.)
  • #7,031
  • Jun 22, 2021 3:32am Jun 22, 2021 3:32am
Quoting Fantaburk
Could you explain a bit more detailed how you know a div fails to make it back to the EMA when trading real time? As about when do you expect it to make a higher high instead for example?
When we have as in your example a bull div we have an expectation that the price will return to the average, this is an expectation not a guarantee so we make a tentative entry with a stop. As price progresses we move the stop to trail the price action.

At some point the price may fail to make the EMA, it turns and stops us out with very little loss, if any at all.

The reason is simple. If price fails to make the crossing then it will probably make a LL than the div so we don't want to be caught holding onto a losing trade.

This part is not really rocket science we are just protecting ourselves. It is important to limit the loss before we consider the profit.

Profit will come many times more profitable than the little losses.

The biggest mistake anyone can make when trading is to add to losses trying to defend a position, sooner or later a huge hole will swallow the account.

Many would say they have a money management plan where they take small trades and say their losses are small. However what they don't say is that their wins are small also so the account just rises and falls with little progress. A three stage entry is very aggressive and results in very nice wins keeping the account tracking nicely in the desired direction.

If you are at all worried about it then retain the three stage entry but make each stage small.
  • #7,032
  • Jun 23, 2021 2:23am Jun 23, 2021 2:23am
Looking at the 1 hour chart below...

The red horizontals represent past bull supports (bear resistance)
The black horizontals represent the past bear supports (bull resistance)

Clearly we can see how these are tested and just at a glance we can see the bulls are attempting to test the next bear support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4af9883854d1b57354f5103eef632b3f.png Size: 122 KB

It pays to keep these levels marked for future references because they are also ZOO points for consideration.

It is a long way to go for the average to test the last swing high but we live in hope hey!
  • #7,033
  • Jun 23, 2021 10:06am Jun 23, 2021 10:06am
Hope everyone is getting the idea now. Don't let anyone tell you that we cannot predict price action, just learn to read the chart information and interpret its meaning.

The times you make a mistake will be well compensated by the rewards.

Here we see the price has done exactly as we predict, always has done and probably always will.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3ce01f038829c2dd4942edcb4387e6fc.png Size: 124 KB
  • #7,034
  • Jun 23, 2021 10:40am Jun 23, 2021 10:40am
Quoting Nala66
Hope everyone is getting the idea now. Don't let anyone tell you that we cannot predict price action, just learn to read the chart information and interpret its meaning. The times you make a mistake will be well compensated by the rewards. Here we see the price has done exactly as we predict, always has done and probably always will. {image}
fantastic ! great trading as always, gives me hope !!!
  • #7,035
  • Jun 23, 2021 8:20pm Jun 23, 2021 8:20pm
And as I awake this morning I see overnight the price action did return to the EMA following the div, a 50 pip bonus.

As yet the bears have not crossed to FIND support so we could see a bounce back up again or we could see a break down. This is why it is just guesswork at the EMA level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3962b3ba10673eb358f004d87c3c57cb.png Size: 123 KB
Better to wait now for the 108 and see what sets up.
  • #7,036
  • Jun 26, 2021 9:43am Jun 26, 2021 9:43am
Quoting Nala66
And as I awake this morning I see overnight the price action did return to the EMA following the div, a 50 pip bonus. As yet the bears have not crossed to FIND support so we could see a bounce back up again or we could see a break down. This is why it is just guesswork at the EMA level. {image}Better to wait now for the 108 and see what sets up.
Hi Alan,

Could I ask at what stage to you disregard the red horizontal (bear resistance) & black horizontals (bull resistance) is it the MA26 when it moves up/below the levels or are they superseded if newer horizontal lines form

happy for any clarification

Cheers...Des
  • #7,037
  • Jun 28, 2021 4:22am Jun 28, 2021 4:22am
Quoting des_b
{quote} Hi Alan, Could I ask at what stage to you disregard the red horizontal (bear resistance) & black horizontals (bull resistance) is it the MA26 when it moves up/below the levels or are they superseded if newer horizontal lines form happy for any clarification Cheers...Des
Myself I just leave them on for a good while and look to see if I get divs thereabouts on the 5 min.

Obviously we don't want a chart full of these so if I get new ones near the old I just drop the old.
  • #7,038
  • Jun 28, 2021 8:01am Jun 28, 2021 8:01am
Hi Alan , i got all the things that you describe and read whole thread more than five times and i am practicing from almost 6 months , now able to get good trades on demo account but when i want to trade on real account i am not so confident thogh i know this could be the very profitable trade but i am really afraid and after some time when i see charts price moves according this system, my question is how i will overcome this situation and how i gain confident, can start trading on real account with small lot sizes or continue with demo yet?
  • #7,039
  • Jun 28, 2021 8:30am Jun 28, 2021 8:30am
Quoting yahya11
Hi Alan , i got all the things that you describe and read whole thread more than five times and i am practicing from almost 6 months , now able to get good trades on demo account but when i want to trade on real account i am not so confident thogh i know this could be the very profitable trade but i am really afraid and after some time when i see charts price moves according this system, my question is how i will overcome this situation and how i gain confident, can start trading on real account with small lot sizes or continue with demo yet?
According to me you can trade with cent account
  • #7,040
  • Jun 28, 2021 10:53am Jun 28, 2021 10:53am
Quoting yahya11
Hi Alan , i got all the things that you describe and read whole thread more than five times and i am practicing from almost 6 months , now able to get good trades on demo account but when i want to trade on real account i am not so confident thogh i know this could be the very profitable trade but i am really afraid and after some time when i see charts price moves according this system, my question is how i will overcome this situation and how i gain confident, can start trading on real account with small lot sizes or continue with demo yet?
I just wrote an essay on this but was unable to post and lost the lot... I will try again tomorrow
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