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Nordling's Legacy - Live Fundamental Trading

  • #41
  • Jun 23, 2021 1:07pm Jun 23, 2021 1:07pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Japanese insurers and companies exchanged their foreign currency for yen to pay for the damage and more demand means price goes up . The second reason may be what is called carry trade. Japan had such low interest rates that it made sense to borrow money in Japan, and invest it elsewhere which entails selling the yen and buying the foreign currency where the investment is. Investors may have decided to bail out of that investment strategy, causing the money to be converted back into yen.
thanks for the feedback and it makes a lot of sense, is there any source of fundamentals informations and how to learn with properly
  • #42
  • Jun 23, 2021 1:27pm Jun 23, 2021 1:27pm
Quoting snowflower
Hello.. saw your thread discussing fundamentals, this was very interesting to me, by the way.. do you still remember the Japanese tsunami disaster in 2011, when most economists predicted that jpy would fall, but it turned out that jpy strengthened after that, what do you think about that? regards SF
Excellent question!

I agree with Techanalyst. People in Japan sold their assets cause they needed cash to repair the damage. Let's say something extra ordinary happened in your country, what would you do? You would probably go to an atm or something in order to get as much as cash so that you can be safer. This creates a short term demand and a bottleneck in Yen supply. So that moves Yen prices up for a short period of time.

I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist but in obvious cases like this, market almost always make an opposite move before heading to the expected direction. Market has to be efficient, of course there are practical reasons behind it like we tried to explain but economics is like any other science that makes sure resources, opportunities are always efficient. No matter how horrific the problem is, finance & economics always aim to make it profitable.

Hear this, pay attention to the part where he confesses that he dreams of a crash/recession:

Inserted Video
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  • #43
  • Jun 23, 2021 1:35pm Jun 23, 2021 1:35pm
Quoting snowflower
{quote} thanks for the feedback and it makes a lot of sense, is there any source of fundamentals informations and how to learn with properly
There's no one way to trade fundamentals, so i can't really point out an exact way to approach it. For example, i take high inflation and high growth rates as negative indicators for the value of a currency in the mid-long run. They generally appreciate the currency in the short run though, like the exact time when they are released. That's okay since i use it to fill my short orders from a better price but there's also people that use Bloomberg Terminal etc. to take that data very quick and long the currency for only few hours or a day.

They are both right in their way of trading fundamentals, the question is which way would fit you?
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  • #44
  • Jun 23, 2021 5:19pm Jun 23, 2021 5:19pm
Quoting snowflower
{quote} thanks for the feedback and it makes a lot of sense, is there any source of fundamentals informations and how to learn with properly
Once I get home, i will share some info here for you some videos, its nothing complicated. Just remember keep your charts as clean as you can.
  • #45
  • Jun 23, 2021 6:44pm Jun 23, 2021 6:44pm
Dear Nordling00 and Techanalyst,

Thank you for this thread.
Do you use stuff from Anton Kreil course?
"The hard work in trading comes in the preparation"
  • #46
  • Jun 23, 2021 9:38pm Jun 23, 2021 9:38pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Excellent question! I agree with Techanalyst. People in Japan sold their assets cause they needed cash to repair the damage. Let's say something extra ordinary happened in your country, what would you do? You would probably go to an atm or something in order to get as much as cash so that you can be safer. This creates a short term demand and a bottleneck in Yen supply. So that moves Yen prices up for a short period of time. I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist but in obvious cases like this, market almost always make an opposite...
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Once I get home, i will share some info here for you some videos, its nothing complicated. Just remember keep your charts as clean as you can.
thanks guys for the further explanation, got the points, will keep watching to make out better
  • #47
  • Edited 5:02pm Jun 24, 2021 4:01am | Edited 5:02pm
Quoting snowflower
{quote} {quote} thanks guys for the further explanation, got the points, will keep watching to make out better
Here it is the youtube videos. They all offer courses too on their website, but watching the videos they post, just by paying attention, you can learn it from that, it's free for videos on youtube.

Karen Foo
https://www.youtube.com/c/KarenFoo/videos

Trading180
https://www.youtube.com/c/Trading180/videos

J Athens
https://www.youtube.com/c/JAthens/videos

Financial Source
https://www.youtube.com/c/FinancialSource/videos

Institute of Trading(Anton Kreil and his other mentors all worked for banks and financial institutions as institutional traders. Look it up.)
https://www.youtube.com/c/InstituteofTrading/videos


Good luck, take your time, if you are interested in specifically macroeconomics, just go through the videos and find any that mentions macroeconomics and fundamentals, a lot of good information on all those videos. Trade safe.
  • #48
  • Jun 24, 2021 4:03am Jun 24, 2021 4:03am
GBP bank rate the same at 0.1%.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/mone...2021/june-2021

GBP bullish.
  • #49
  • Jun 24, 2021 5:39am Jun 24, 2021 5:39am
Quoting Nick.Vuong
Dear Nordling00 and Techanalyst, Thank you for this thread. Do you use stuff from Anton Kreil course?
You are welcome buddy.

No i just use the info i got from economics & finance books, university classes and academic articles.
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  • #50
  • Jun 24, 2021 5:02pm Jun 24, 2021 5:02pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} You are welcome buddy. No i just use the info i got from economics & finance books, university classes and academic articles.
https://think.ing.com/articles/eur-e...et-april-2021/
  • #51
  • Jun 25, 2021 12:20am Jun 25, 2021 12:20am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} https://think.ing.com/articles/eur-e...et-april-2021/
I can agree with that, after the yesterday's US GDP numbers, USD lost it's advantage against Euro and now they are equal and ranked the same in my spreadsheet. So i expect EURUSD to continue sideways from now on, at least until another inflation or gdp data. That's short-mid term.

For the long term, i expect dollar to continue losing it's value until 2022. I don't think dollar's depreciation will be as significant as it was in 2020, but yes around 1.20 looks realistic and accurate. Because while inflation is still a big problem in US which cannot only be suppressed by tapering, looking at EU and UK the inflation is not much of a big deal as it is in the US.
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  • #52
  • Jun 25, 2021 2:28am Jun 25, 2021 2:28am
Quoting Nordling00
I am going to start with my open positions: GBP/PLN: Sell {image} USD/CHF: Sell {image}
Here's the Friday update from my GBP/PLN and USD/CHF positions, all in profit They are small profits but considering they are new trades, it's a good start


GBP/PLN Sell:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPPLN SELL FRIDAY UPDATE.png Size: 31 KB


USD/CHF Sell:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF SELL FRIDAY UPDATE.png Size: 29 KB


Profits:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FRIDAY OPEN POSITIONS REPORT.png Size: 7 KB
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  • #53
  • Jun 28, 2021 4:00am Jun 28, 2021 4:00am
A lot of important fundamentals coming out this week. There should be a lot of volatility and should give us the direction where the currencies are going. Looks like USA is doing better than Euro Area, so with the upcoming fundamentals, EURUSD could go further down.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #54
  • Edited 7:50am Jun 29, 2021 6:59am | Edited 7:50am
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/10...gital-recovery


EURUSD bearish.

More positive news for USD.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #55
  • Jun 30, 2021 3:09pm Jun 30, 2021 3:09pm
I absolutely love this thread. Low key, sharing macroeconomics with charts, and not flooding the thread everyday with absolutely nonsense. Keep it up everyone. But keep it low key, this is a fundamentals thread macroeconomics. Trade safe.
  • #56
  • Jun 30, 2021 3:37pm Jun 30, 2021 3:37pm
Quoting Techanalyst
I absolutely love this thread. Low key, sharing macroeconomics with charts, and not flooding the thread everyday with absolutely nonsense. Keep it up everyone. But keep it low key, this is a fundamentals thread macroeconomics. Trade safe.
Exactly bro! This thread is full of quality posts instead of idle talk unlike the popular threads. Attention is good, but too much attention can become toxic.

As a position trader, i open 3-4 trades maximum in a month and i let them be. Right now i have my USD/CHF and GBP/PLN trades open and that's all. So i don't have many stuff to post regularly. They are going bad this week unlike the previous one but let's see.

Btw thank you for your great contribution to this thread, your trading ideas are full of information and so helpful. Great fundamental view!
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  • #57
  • Edited 7:21am Jul 1, 2021 7:06am | Edited 7:21am
USD fundamentals good so far. GBP and EURO not as good as USA. JPY is also weak so cadjpy buy was a good entry. GBP Interest Rate is 0.1% so not near as to where it should be. Trade safe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDdaily.png Size: 120 KB
  • #58
  • Jul 4, 2021 7:35am Jul 4, 2021 7:35am
Looks like fundamentals are still strong with USA, and EURO is weaker. EURUSD still bearish. Trade safe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDdaily.png Size: 34 KB
  • #59
  • Jul 5, 2021 7:09am Jul 5, 2021 7:09am
We could see pullback to 1.19xx daily supply before Friday news ECB. From there after the news, we could see price dropping further and eventually will get to daily demand zone around 1.17xx. There is also a week ahead of macroeconomics. Trade safe.


https://tradingeconomics.com/blog
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: News.png Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDdaily.png Size: 106 KB
  • #60
  • Jul 6, 2021 6:53am Jul 6, 2021 6:53am
Numbers are no good for EUR, so looks like EUR won't even get to daily supply zone. EURUSD bearish all the way down to 1.17xx. Trade safe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDdaily.png Size: 29 KB
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