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HMA Trend Break Strategy

  • #21
  • Dec 17, 2019 8:56am Dec 17, 2019 8:56am
Quoting osfx
... again a day with good opportunities - took 6 trades (4 winners, 2 losses) - example AUDJPY long {image}
If it was such a good "opportunity", why didn't you take that trade? 4 winners and 2 losers sounds pretty good ... except for how much did you win vs how much did you lose?

Quick question for anyone on this thread ... if you see a trendline that has already been broken and it gets broken again at a lower price, is this still a valid trade?
  • #22
  • Dec 17, 2019 9:06am Dec 17, 2019 9:06am
Quoting osfx
... again a day with good opportunities - took 6 trades (4 winners, 2 losses) - example AUDJPY long {image}
A good opportunity? Why didn't you take the trade? And 4 winners vs 2 losses sounds good ... but how much did you win vs how much did you lose? With the variable SL levels, 2 losses could wipe out 4 wins.

Quick question ... if the trendline is broken and price still keeps going in the original direction is a second break of the trendline still a valid entry point?

Thanks
  • #23
  • Dec 17, 2019 11:00pm Dec 17, 2019 11:00pm
Quoting tenthman
{quote} A good opportunity? Why didn't you take the trade? And 4 winners vs 2 losses sounds good ... but how much did you win vs how much did you lose? With the variable SL levels, 2 losses could wipe out 4 wins.
Hi tenthman, I took the trade, it was one of the 4 winners - your're right, the absolute nos. of winners and losses don't say anything, so here are the stats from monday, fees deducted:

EURGBP long, Entry 58.75, exit at expiry 100.00 (gain 39.25)
AUDJPY long, Entry 57.25, exit at expiry 100.00 (gain 40.75)
Gold short, Entry 47.50, closed manually at 67.50 (loss 22.00)
USDCHF long, Entry 58.00, closed manually at 28.00 (loss 32.00)
AUDUSD long, Entry 54.75, exit at expiry 100.00 (gain 43.25)
EURUSD long 64.50, exit at expiry 100.00 (gain 33.50)
Total gain 102.75 (based on 1 contract per trade)
  • #24
  • Edited Dec 18, 2019 6:39am Dec 17, 2019 11:03pm | Edited Dec 18, 2019 6:39am
Quoting tenthman
{quote} Quick question ... if the trendline is broken and price still keeps going in the original direction is a second break of the trendline still a valid entry point? Thanks
Maybe - this wasn't clearly defined by the thread opener. However I considered this a valid trade.
  • #25
  • Dec 18, 2019 11:29pm Dec 18, 2019 11:29pm
Nice trend
  • #26
  • Dec 19, 2019 8:11am Dec 19, 2019 8:11am
Quoting Intrepidpips
{quote} Or could it be Entry 1 or Entry 2 ? {image}
In Post 11, the OP said to wait for a pullback. That would mean Entry #1 was valid and Entry #2 would not have occurred without breaking the pullback rule.

I'm trying to see if Bollinger Bands will help with the decision of when to pull the trigger.
  • #27
  • Dec 19, 2019 8:16am Dec 19, 2019 8:16am
Quoting osfx
{quote} Hi tenthman, I took the trade, it was one of the 4 winners - your're right, the absolute nos. of winners and losses don't say anything, so here are the stats from monday, fees deducted: EURGBP long, Entry 58.75, exit at expiry 100.00 (gain 39.25) AUDJPY long, Entry 57.25, exit at expiry 100.00 (gain 40.75) Gold short, Entry 47.50, closed manually at 67.50 (loss 22.00) USDCHF long, Entry 58.00, closed manually at 28.00 (loss 32.00) AUDUSD long, Entry 54.75, exit at expiry 100.00 (gain 43.25) EURUSD long 64.50, exit at expiry 100.00 (gain...
Hey osfx, what's up buddy. I'm surprised you didn't get upset with my questions ... class act ... you da man!
  • #28
  • Jan 3, 2020 3:24pm Jan 3, 2020 3:24pm
Hi what is the long term moving average that is being used?
  • #29
  • Jan 10, 2020 10:48pm Jan 10, 2020 10:48pm
Quoting Hurrikane9
Hi what is the long term moving average that is being used?
Read post 5. Might give you a clue. It is an HMA (Hull Moving Average)
  • #30
  • Jun 13, 2021 4:31am Jun 13, 2021 4:31am
Thanks, Vdubus. Since I have seen this strategy for the first time now HMA is something I look very often at while trading.
  • #31
  • Jun 22, 2021 11:27am Jun 22, 2021 11:27am
This strategy is awesome!! Trading on the 15 m time frame
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  • #32
  • Edited 7:05am Jun 23, 2021 6:49am | Edited 7:05am
Trading 1M TF

Could have caught this move potentially sooner
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  • #33
  • Jun 23, 2021 7:26am Jun 23, 2021 7:26am
Quoting tenthman
{quote} If it was such a good "opportunity", why didn't you take that trade? 4 winners and 2 losers sounds pretty good ... except for how much did you win vs how much did you lose? Quick question for anyone on this thread ... if you see a trendline that has already been broken and it gets broken again at a lower price, is this still a valid trade?

4 Winners and 2 Losers while risking 1% with a R:R of 1:1 should be 4% - 2% = +2%. The pips/points do not matter or what do you mean by this?

The trendline rule seems important after I've done a couple of visual backtest, think OP should clarify this.

Looks promising in any case!
  • #34
  • Jun 23, 2021 7:28am Jun 23, 2021 7:28am
Quoting BurnGuy
This strategy is awesome!!

Like any other MA-based strategy, in a trending market (when you least need MA indicators) it can be very successful, and in a ranging market (when indicators would be most helpful) its results are no better than random entries.

That's not to say it has no value, of course - just like hundreds of other MA-based methods, but "awesome" is a huge exaggeration, as you'll discover if you collate the results of 500 trades: the only steadily profitable periods will be the ones made during trends clear enough for absolutely any MA-based method to make profits.
  • #35
  • Jun 23, 2021 11:36am Jun 23, 2021 11:36am
Quoting KarlKraus
{quote} Like any other MA-based strategy, in a trending market (when you least need MA indicators) it can be very successful, and in a ranging market (when indicators would be most helpful) its results are no better than random entries. That's not to say it has no value, of course - just like hundreds of other MA-based methods, but "awesome" is a huge exaggeration, as you'll discover if you collate the results of 500 trades: the only steadily profitable periods will be the ones made during trends clear enough for absolutely any MA-based method to...
don’t agree as I’m using it as a trend reversal, and there’s an abundance of indicators that work great in ranging markets and indicators that work great in trending markets. Sounds like you have your mind made it up about how things work and anything outside of that is bad.

I’ll continue making profit thanks though!
  • #36
  • Last Post: Jun 24, 2021 4:41pm Jun 24, 2021 4:41pm
Update!

So the strategy needs better entry conditions to filter out quick trend breaks. After hours of playing around with different trading mechanics and indicators, I've found a great solution to make the win rate something incredible.

I'm filtering entries with a SuperTrend indicator. Perfect entry would be like the first picture below where price breaks the TL and the next candle signals.

However, most of the time price will break TL and then it will signal a few bars later. This is fine. I'll show some examples down below of filtered entries and successful entries.
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