Nordling's Legacy - Live Fundamental Trading | Forex Factory

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Nordling's Legacy - Live Fundamental Trading

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 7:51pm Jun 22, 2021 1:06pm | Edited 7:51pm
Hi everyone! I have been actively posting on GU and EU threads for a while now. I decided to gather all of my live trades in one thread so that you guys can track and follow it easier. It's also nice to have a thread focused mainly on fundamentals since fundamental analysis is not very popular here. Feel free to ask and share anything!

Rules:

1. No trolling, no commercial stuff, no advertisement.

2. TA is welcome but it needs to be backed by fundamentals. There's gotta be a fundamental reason behind your trades since this is a thread that mainly focuses on fundamentals.

3. Be respectful to the members here. Disagreements, discussions are fine but fighting is not allowed.

4. Quality of the posts matter, misleading information can cause harm to the members and the thread. Make sure that your info is based on the proven facts, science, economics.

5. No HFT and Scalping. Sorry guys. Daytrading can be acceptable since some traders may want to take advantage of the news releases or other fundamental factors, events. Swing Trading and Position Trading is of course allowed.

6. Every pair is allowed. No matter if they are major, minor or exotic.


I think the rules are clear, let's start this journey. I won't wish anyone good luck this time. Everyone is going to make his/her own luck, like it is supposed to be. Trade safe
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  • #2
  • Jun 22, 2021 1:15pm Jun 22, 2021 1:15pm
I am going to start with my open positions:

GBP/PLN: Sell

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPPLN.png Size: 39 KB


USD/CHF: Sell

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.png Size: 32 KB
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  • #3
  • Jun 22, 2021 2:37pm Jun 22, 2021 2:37pm
Quoting Nordling00
2. TA is welcome but it needs to be backed by fundamentals. There's gotta be a fundamental reason behind your trades since this is a thread that mainly focuses on fundamentals.

4. Quality of the posts matter, misleading information can cause harm to the members and the thread. Make sure that your info is based on the proven facts, science, economics.
No replies here yet so I'll play devil's advocate to get the ball rolling...

How does your trade screenshot exactly demonstrate points 2 and 4? We do not see any fundamental reasons posted behind those entries... I am sure the others are wondering the same thing too
  • #4
  • Jun 22, 2021 2:42pm Jun 22, 2021 2:42pm
Quoting Nordling00
Hi everyone! I have been actively posting on GU and EU threads for a while now. I decided to gather all of my live trades in one thread so that you guys can track and follow it easier. It's also nice to have a thread focused mainly on fundamentals since fundamental analysis is not very popular here. Feel free to ask and share anything! Rules: 1. No trolling, no commercial stuff, no advertisement. 2. TA is welcome but it needs to be backed by fundamentals. There's gotta be a fundamental reason behind your trades since this is a thread that mainly...
Sounds good to me.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #5
  • Jun 22, 2021 3:11pm Jun 22, 2021 3:11pm
i own a hardaware store and business is going shit
similar shops here have the same issue this year

the fall i see has not happened since 2012 when it was cut in half

fed printed money and prices off the products went all up from 30% minimum up to 100% on metals
i see this happening around the world

investors are gonna take their money out since the retail world has no money to spend. money has lost its value.

stock market is about to crash again in the coming weeks the way i see it.

that is a bit of my fundamental analysis and the only kind of fundamental analysis i do apart from searching for stocks to invest in (currently there is none) and my active job that makes me know much about metals and gas withc i believe the new norm for them has been created (they are not going down again to historic lows)

us500 target is at around 3400. stop at 4500 possible but i trade technical as well so i am waiting for my technicals to align. ideal entry is 4200-4300.

good luck with your thread mate

ps. i wrote it in as much of a minimalistic way as i could.
offering my system to copy trade. check my link
  • #6
  • Jun 22, 2021 3:34pm Jun 22, 2021 3:34pm
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} No replies here yet so I'll play devil's advocate to get the ball rolling... How does your trade screenshot exactly demonstrate points 2 and 4? We do not see any fundamental reasons posted behind those entries... I am sure the others are wondering the same thing too
Oh thank you Well you pointed out a good thing, i forgot to elaborate on the fundamental side

I am sorry though

So here's my fundamental spreadsheet where i rank the currencies that i trade (ex-commodity, floating) depending on their inflation, growth and interest rate numbers:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Fundamental Spreadsheet.png Size: 17 KB


So in this table, i do the opposite of what people do How? I take high inflation and high growth rates as a bad thing, which is true on the long term. Yeah i know that high inflation and growth numbers affect currencies in a good way when the time they are released, but it actually gives you an opportunity to sell/buy from a better price. Like a discount

There's also another interesting thing about this. Look at those charts carefully, can you see how FOMC tapering pushed GBP/PLN up? It wasn't even a USD pair. But it continued against my analysis still. What it did is market gave me a chance to sell from a better price. I couldn't time it very well though. I jumped in after the second day of FOMC release. I should have waited one more day. Why? Because FOMC's tapering effect generally lasts for 3 days. It did lasted for 3 days in most of the pairs right. It also lasted for 3 days back in 19th of June, 2013:

EU chart from those days:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Taper Tantrum.png Size: 34 KB


The shock effect lasted for 3 days, then it slowed down a bit but it continued to go down. Why? Cause the fundamental spreadsheet that i use indicated that USD was also strong against Euro. So it went down until Euro took it's fundamental advantage back. If you look at the rankings of USD, GBP and Euro, it looks like history is going to repeat itself. We also have US GDP numbers this Thursday though. That can change the game. Until then EU and GU looks bearish like 2013.

It is very interesting that even pairs like GBP/PLN moved with FOMC tapering decision. But it moved to give you a discount I don't know if i explained it good but it's very hard for me to explain my thoughts with words. Especially with a foreign language. I couldn't even explain this properly in Turkish though, there's a very complex, interconnected but also kinda simple structure between all these stuff happening
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  • #7
  • Jun 22, 2021 3:44pm Jun 22, 2021 3:44pm
Quoting nikosk0
i own a hardaware store and business is going shit similar shops here have the same issue this year the fall i see has not happened since 2012 when it was cut in half fed printed money and prices off the products went all up from 30% minimum up to 100% on metals i see this happening around the world investors are gonna take their money out since the retail world has no money to spend. money has lost its value. stock market is about to crash again in the coming weeks the way i see it. that is a bit of my fundamental analysis and the only kind of...
Thank you beforehand mate

See, that's the result of high inflation and high growth rates. They are doing this in order to give people affordable loans to keep them alive but there's also rising costs and prices of doing business. Which is hurting consumers and also business owners so bad. I can relate. We are living that inflation and growth chaos in Turkey for 10 years. There's also Argentina example just like us. This is not sustainable in the long run. USA will get over this stuff once the pandemic is over though. They already vaccinated lots of people. This recovery/expansion cycle will probably be over in US by 2022, then the economy and buying power will recover no worries. Can't say the same thing about Argentina and Turkey though

Note: Things that i said about US is also applies for the other western, developed countries. They are all in this expansion cycle right now, but with high percentage of vaccinations this chaos will end during 2022.
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  • #8
  • Jun 22, 2021 4:28pm Jun 22, 2021 4:28pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Thank you beforehand mate See, that's the result of high inflation and high growth rates. They are doing this in order to give people affordable loans to keep them alive but there's also rising costs and prices of doing business. Which is hurting consumers and also business owners so bad. I can relate. We are living that inflation and growth chaos in Turkey for 10 years. There's also Argentina example just like us. This is not sustainable in the long run. USA will get over this stuff once the pandemic is over though. They already...
That is what I am thinking, because pandemics usually last for about two years. So I am thinking maybe by the end of 2022 this will all be done and back to normal. A lot of things will change, and a lot of people will remain working from home, a lot of insurance companies, accounting, software technology, will have employees working from home, because it is a big profit for them and they don't have to lease big buildings that cost them 100 thousands of dollars.
  • #9
  • Jun 22, 2021 4:48pm Jun 22, 2021 4:48pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} That is what I am thinking, because pandemics usually last for about two years. So I am thinking maybe by the end of 2022 this will all be done and back to normal. A lot of things will change, and a lot of people will remain working from home, a lot of insurance companies, accounting, software technology, will have employees working from home, because it is a big profit for them and they don't have to lease big buildings that cost them 100 thousands of dollars.
Yes there's also that. Profit margins, work effectiveness will increase mostly. As a college student, i attend to classes online via Microsoft Teams since schools are closed because of pandemic. I also see that my ability to focus and my success increased during these online classes, compared to the formal education. So i think employees will be more happy, effective and expenses will be less. This is a big step for evolving this whole system to "Industry 4.0" too.

Also economy and central bank policies will turn back to the normal. USD kept losing strength for more than a year now. This is a chance for the developing countries to keep up with western world since USD is kinda cheap and accessible than before. Most of them missed that chance though, including my country. We wil see a strong USD after 2022. The gap will widen.
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  • #10
  • Jun 22, 2021 5:46pm Jun 22, 2021 5:46pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Yes there's also that. Profit margins, work effectiveness will increase mostly. As a college student, i attend to classes online via Microsoft Teams since schools are closed because of pandemic. I also see that my ability to focus and my success increased during these online classes, compared to the formal education. So i think employees will be more happy, effective and expenses will be less. This is a big step for evolving this whole system to "Industry 4.0" too. Also economy and central bank policies will turn back to the normal. USD...
Closed my sell on EURUSD due to bad news for USA. What do you got?
  • #11
  • Jun 22, 2021 6:17pm Jun 22, 2021 6:17pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Closed my sell on EURUSD due to bad news for USA. What do you got?
I didn't trade EU and GU after closing my positions last week. I am just waiting for my USD/CHF and GBP/PLN trades.


Last trades from my EU chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 33 KB

Last trades from my GU chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.png Size: 41 KB


So i am at "sitting and waiting" phase of trading right now. I think GU and EU will continue falling ( I gotta wait until Thursday to confirm that though) but i didn't sell EU and GU since i already have a USDCHF trade. I don't like opening too many positions on the same currency cause correlation thing can become a pain
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  • #12
  • Jun 22, 2021 6:58pm Jun 22, 2021 6:58pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} I didn't trade EU and GU after closing my positions last week. I am just waiting for my USD/CHF and GBP/PLN trades. Last trades from my EU chart: {image} Last trades from my GU chart: {image} So i am at "sitting and waiting" phase of trading right now. I think GU and EU will continue falling ( I gotta wait until Thursday to confirm that though) but i didn't sell EU and GU since i already have a USDCHF trade. I don't like opening too many positions on the same currency cause correlation thing can become a pain
On that other thread EURUSD, when I get a stupid reply from angry traders, you will notice my response will be a chart and a tissue box "heavenly soft" HAHA.
  • #13
  • Jun 22, 2021 7:13pm Jun 22, 2021 7:13pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} On that other thread EURUSD, when I get a stupid reply from angry traders, you will notice my response will be a chart and a tissue box "heavenly soft" HAHA.
You are doing the best because they don't even understand the explanations we made. We did everything we can to teach them some stuff, but they are too stubborn to learn. All there's left to say is "tissue" really, that's the treatment they deserve .
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  • #14
  • Jun 22, 2021 7:26pm Jun 22, 2021 7:26pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} You are doing the best because they don't even understand the explanations we made. We did everything we can to teach them some stuff, but they are too stubborn to learn. All there's left to say is "tissue" really, that's the treatment they deserve .
The EURUSD thread is toxic. I'm done with it. You try to help people to become better traders and you get told not to teach or you get ignored or falsely accused of having a commercial agenda.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #15
  • Jun 22, 2021 7:33pm Jun 22, 2021 7:33pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} The EURUSD thread is toxic. I'm done with it. You try to help people to become better traders and you get told not to teach or you get ignored or falsely accused of having a commercial agenda.
I agree, but man you gotta see the GBPUSD thread. That's the worst i have ever seen. Even EURUSD thread feels like a heaven after spending some time at GBPUSD thread
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #16
  • Jun 22, 2021 7:36pm Jun 22, 2021 7:36pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} I agree, but man you gotta see the GBPUSD thread. That's the worst i have ever seen. Even EURUSD thread feels like a heaven after spending some time at GBPUSD thread
That's interesting. I have been having a pretty good experience in there so far.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #17
  • Jun 22, 2021 8:18pm Jun 22, 2021 8:18pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} I agree, but man you gotta see the GBPUSD thread. That's the worst i have ever seen. Even EURUSD thread feels like a heaven after spending some time at GBPUSD thread
Fully agree. I had a look for a while and to me it is like a flea market. Have no idea how people can trade while constantly chatting...
  • #18
  • Jun 22, 2021 8:20pm Jun 22, 2021 8:20pm
Quoting snail69
{quote} Fully agree. I had a look for a while and to me it is like a flea market. Have no idea how people can trade while constantly chatting...
I agree, that tells you that about 95% of traders on FF are not traders, and will most likely never be.
  • #19
  • Jun 22, 2021 8:28pm Jun 22, 2021 8:28pm
Quoting snail69
{quote} Fully agree. I had a look for a while and to me it is like a flea market. Have no idea how people can trade while constantly chatting...
Well, there is more chatting going on in here at the moment than posting charts and sharing ideas.

Or perhaps it is best to say there is more complaining at the moment.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #20
  • Jun 22, 2021 8:31pm Jun 22, 2021 8:31pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Well, there is more chatting going on in here at the moment than posting charts and sharing ideas. Or perhaps it is best to say there is more complaining at the moment.
HAHA good one. But this here, is fundamentals trading so most of us so far are longer term traders, so chatting can be done for a while. But the issue is most of the traders on FF claim they are "day traders/scalpers" but they are chatting and posting every minute. If they are really day trading, there is no time really to post and share charts. Usually people will make a video and share what they did during the day.
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