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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #1,421
  • Jun 21, 2021 8:43am Jun 21, 2021 8:43am
Quoting TraderTim125
{quote} Hi Winston, The reality and assumptions of High Risk High Return (HRHR) trading are very different to those, that, for want of a better word, I will call investment trading. Let me first define what I mean by investment trading. You have a significant amount of capital. The first objective is or should be to protect that capital. You're second objective is to earn either a regular income or stable compounding return on that capital. If you have enough capital, perhaps both. This is what we might describe as "normal" trading. HRHR trading...
My post has only one intention and that is to point out with raw numbers the near impossibility of a trader being able to consistently achieve a 5% return. My only response to someone who claims they are doing this or that they can do it or that it is not so difficult to do, is merely to just prove it. No anecdotes or quaint stories will suffice. Only hard core proof. Anything else is equates to "the fish I caught was this big" yet never are they able to show the actual fish.
  • #1,422
  • Jun 21, 2021 9:44am Jun 21, 2021 9:44am
Let's calculate Peter's money again. For example he is trading EURUSD where 1 point = 1$ and where 1 lot size is 100.000$.

Peter has 10.000$ account. So 5% is 500$. He must trade 0.1 lot size max which is 10.000$ and now 1 point = 0.1$

1% for EU is about 1185 points, or 118$ if 1 point = 0.1$. And 0.56$ commission + may be spread around 0.1$.

Now please tell me how many times a week EU price move for 1%? Last 10 days is was only 2 times and IF check it from bottom to top. But we know that Peter so good so he can catch exact low and exact high. But even if this is TRUE, he can't earn 5-6% daily 3-4 times a week.

Now please tell me how many times price moved 5% (5% = 5925 points)? Zero. Never.

Someone can say that Peter used GBPUSD as example. Yes, this is ok. But 1 point of EURUSD = 0.7 point of GBPUSD and that's all. There are no difference at all. EU taken just to have simple calculations.

May be he is trading more than 1 pair? May be. But then initial lot size will be less and the whole calculations remains the same anyway.

So please tell me, Peter, how your imagination works? What are the math rules in your world?
Observer effect
  • #1,423
  • Jun 21, 2021 10:00am Jun 21, 2021 10:00am
Peter said:

"Monday morning, I look at the previous 2 weeks and see what has happened, how it played out and where it's up to now.
Because I am a manual trader, I do NOT rely on blind signals. So if for that week, the market I am looking at, offers 2 or 3 or 4 trades setups to my liking, then I will anticipate their outcomes with the understanding"

I perform a similar analysis every Sunday, which seems to line up with Peter's timing. My work and objectives are slightly different, but may be similar. If Peter agrees to share, I suggest everyone here who does this kind of prep work, post their work here this coming weekend. If Peter agrees to share, we can all share, too. For clarity, let's agree on 4 or 5 currency pairs (not gold or oil or corn or anything else), and show some high level analysis of the currency markets. I know not everyone here does this kind of prep, but it would be an opportunity to show how we are preparing for the coming week.

I know this is just "opinion", and most who post here will not "think" properly and will not be in a "learning" mindset. But it might be an opportunity for Peter to show his stuff, compared to the rest of us. I'm curious about what "real world" opinion is, how a non-"consumer" trader thinks, and how a non-"speculator" views the upcoming week.

This is a risk-free challenge to compare our prep thinking with a 5%'er. Peter, what do you think? Can you lead us in some relevant learning?
  • #1,424
  • Jun 21, 2021 10:59am Jun 21, 2021 10:59am
Quoting GEfx
For clarity, let's agree on 4 or 5 currency pairs (not gold or oil or corn or anything else)
Why? Let it be 28 pairs + Gold + Silver + Oil + Every Crypto he wants. Just let him show how his "I look at the previous 2 weeks" can a) predict the future movements and b) destroy basic math rules of the real world and c) earn 5-6% 3-4 times a week.

No limits!
Observer effect
  • #1,425
  • Edited 12:22pm Jun 21, 2021 11:23am | Edited 12:22pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Why? Let it be 28 pairs + Gold + Silver + Oil + Every Crypto he wants. Just let him show how his "I look at the previous 2 weeks" can a) predict the future movements and b) destroy basic math rules of the real world and c) earn 5-6% 3-4 times a week. No limits!
No...this is Forex Factory. Post anything traded on the Forex. Let's stay focused on the topic at hand, which is 5% pet day trading the Forex.
  • #1,426
  • Jun 21, 2021 1:01pm Jun 21, 2021 1:01pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} My post has only one intention and that is to point out with raw numbers the near impossibility of a trader being able to consistently achieve a 5% return. My only response to someone who claims they are doing this or that they can do it or that it is not so difficult to do, is merely to just prove it. No anecdotes or quaint stories will suffice. Only hard core proof. Anything else is equates to "the fish I caught was this big" yet never are they able to show the actual fish.
I Am Willing To Put My Money Where My Mouth Is

Hi Winston,
I haven't done this yet. It is pure theory at this stage.

I have mentioned a couple of times elsewhere on this thread that I am a member of a small peer-to-peer fx trader mentoring group. One of the members of the group came up with this idea a couple of years ago. Some of our members thought it would be a fun thing to try and do and some of us were prepared to put some money up to give it a go. The problem was we could not find a decent trader. None of us was a consistent enough trader to do it ourselves. We looked at a couple of "guns for hire" but when we investigated their claimed performance they turned out to be bullshit.

I have already said in recent posts what we regarded as a decent consistently profitable trader is a 5% return on capital/month with a maximum of about 2% intratrade drawdown. I would also expect to see a consistent profit factor of around 2 or better. Based on numerous claims that people have made, I would expect that there would be a number of people on this forum capable of this level of performance.

The trader would not need to invest one penny of their own money. Nor would they need to do anything other than their own normal day to day trading. The trading could even be done on a demo account if they wished. All they need to do is run an EA on their MetaTrader trading account which would pick up their trading signals.

If the project paid off, the trader would get a reasonable pre negotiated percentage of the winnings. I would have to do the sums but I guess this would be of the order of $100K

As I said in my earlier post there is quite a bit more to this scheme. Some of the additional elements should significantly reduce the risk. The objective would be to set up a scheme where the account would have the best possible chance of not blowing up consistent with the best possible profit. In other words the system would be designed for the best reward /risk possible.

If this project gets off the ground, I would be happy to give you or any other responsible person read access to the live high risk trading account(s). You could then report the progress on a weekly or monthly basis in this forum. If the account(s) blow up, the sceptics can then all laugh and say Nah Nah Nah I told you so. If the account(s) survive the designated time then it would prove, at least to some extent that high risk, high return trading is possible.

Since this system relies on copy trading, any scalping strategy that takes very short duration trades may run into latency and other time related issues. We would therefore need to assess each prospective trader and their strategy on their merits.

First we need just one reasonably good trader Any takers? Please PM me.

Tim
Don't Guess Test
  • #1,427
  • Jun 21, 2021 1:09pm Jun 21, 2021 1:09pm
Quoting TraderTim125
{quote} I Am Willing To Put My Money Where My Mouth Is Hi Winston, I haven't done this yet. It is pure theory at this stage. I have mentioned a couple of times elsewhere on this thread that I am a member of a small peer-to-peer fx trader mentoring group. One of the members of the group came up with this idea a couple of years ago. Some of our members thought it would be a fun thing to try and do and some of us were prepared to put some money up to give it a go. The problem was we could not find a decent trader. None of us was a consistent enough...
There's lots of good traders here, including me not gonna lie. That doesn't mean i am after your money though, i wouldn't accept it even if you were to offer me a trillion dollars.

Why don't you consider going to a personal investment adviser/portfolio manager though? It would be safer that way.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #1,428
  • Jun 21, 2021 1:23pm Jun 21, 2021 1:23pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} No...this is Forex Factory. Post anything traded on the Forex. Let's stay focused on the topic at hand, which is 5% pet day trading the Forex.
Oh sorry, you are right! Then any of 28 forex pairs!
Observer effect
  • #1,429
  • Jun 21, 2021 1:35pm Jun 21, 2021 1:35pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Oh sorry, you are right! Then any of 28 forex pairs!
Yes I would go along with that. The only caveat would be if Peter objects and wants to narrow down the field to better display is non-consumer thinking.
  • #1,430
  • Edited 1:51pm Jun 21, 2021 1:40pm | Edited 1:51pm
Quoting TraderTim125
Based on numerous claims that people have made, I would expect that there would be a number of people on this forum capable of this level of performance.
Hi Tim. Here in trading there are few logic issues everywhere. For example:
1. Profitable trader does not trade, but teaches
2. Profitable EA does not earn but for sale
3. Profitable strategy not used by it's creator but shares for free
4. Profitable trader searching for battles, challenges

Why? No answer, just magic everywhere. Because people are so good, happy and kind. And only in trading. In the other world they are greedy and jealousy and only here there are selected good ones.

May be that's why you can't find that trader?

For example I'm profitable trader. And I'm trading every day. How and why I'll record youtube video? For what? For example I have 100k$ account and earn 0.5% daily. It is 500$. What youtube channel will gain 500$ daily?
And I have my EA that helps me to trade. Will I share it for free or sell? Where I will take time for support? What EA will gain 500$ daily if sell it?
And I have a strategy. What for I'll teach other people? Why? Especially for free, on forum?
And last but not least. Why the world I'll proof anything and take challenges? If you are a taxi driver you will never drag race. Because your car is your bread. Your instument to earn money. You will never risk your driver licence or your car.

I know the answer why this happening. Because real traders they trade. Every day. Day by day. And all others who failed they are teaching, mentoring, selling eas and indicators, speaking on youtube channels and so on. And to advertise themselves taking every challenge. Because if win that will be good. If not they can register another "Peter" account and start to post bullshit about 5-6% daily again.
Observer effect
  • #1,431
  • Jun 21, 2021 1:51pm Jun 21, 2021 1:51pm
If your dreams don't scare you, they ain't big enough.
Try to achieve 100% profit in a week.
Observe and learn the habits
  • #1,432
  • Edited 3:40pm Jun 21, 2021 1:52pm | Edited 3:40pm
Quoting TraderTim125
{quote} I Am Willing To Put My Money Where My Mouth Is Hi Winston, I haven't done this yet. It is pure theory at this stage. I have mentioned a couple of times elsewhere on this thread that I am a member of a small peer-to-peer fx trader mentoring group. One of the members of the group came up with this idea a couple of years ago. Some of our members thought it would be a fun thing to try and do and some of us were prepared to put some money up to give it a go. The problem was we could not find a decent trader. None of us was a consistent enough...
I'd have no time for this, but I'd think a good trader would demand different terms. For example, they'd likely retain all the gains, plus 20% of the invested capital as a fee. After all, the beneficiaries of the exercise (the investors) should be willing to pay a fee. There is at least one trading tool on the market that would allow the test trader to mirror trades into their account plus the investors account, but wouldn't it be prudent to have the investor account in the name of the test trader? I think it need to be. Then there is the matter of taxes. If the test trader is a US-based trader, then there would need to be an agreed upon method of sending K1s or K1 like tax documents, etc. And as soon as taxes come into the picture, the US-based traders will be open to an audit (nearly a certainty given the international aspects of the scheme), at which point the US-based trader would need to show their legal credentials for trading other peoples money. This scheme seems complicated, at least if you like in the US.
  • #1,433
  • Jun 21, 2021 2:06pm Jun 21, 2021 2:06pm
Whe should ask George for help to answer all these questions, he is the master trader, does anyone know where he his???

George???? HELP US!!!!!
  • #1,434
  • Jun 21, 2021 2:41pm Jun 21, 2021 2:41pm
Quoting STrading
Whe should ask George for help to answer all these questions, he is the master trader, does anyone know where he his??? George???? HELP US!!!!!
George is Davit on steroids
  • #1,435
  • Jun 21, 2021 3:01pm Jun 21, 2021 3:01pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} There's lots of good traders here, including me not gonna lie. That doesn't mean i am after your money though, i wouldn't accept it even if you were to offer me a trillion dollars. Why don't you consider going to a personal investment adviser/portfolio manager though? It would be safer that way.
That is a really smart piece of advice. Go to an investment advisor who wouldn't have a clue about this sort of thing and tell them I wanted to take a high risk gamble on a self managed forex scheme with a couple of grand. I can just imagine the look on his face.
Don't Guess Test
  • #1,436
  • Jun 21, 2021 3:09pm Jun 21, 2021 3:09pm
Quoting TraderTim125
{quote} That is a really smart piece of advice. Go to an investment advisor who wouldn't have a clue about this sort of thing and tell them I wanted to take a high risk gamble on a self managed forex scheme with a couple of grand. I can just imagine the look on his face.
Fair enough. I don't know if it would be safe to hire a trader from here though. Good luck i guess...
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #1,437
  • Jun 21, 2021 3:25pm Jun 21, 2021 3:25pm
Tumbleweed on this thread.

  • #1,438
  • Jun 21, 2021 3:59pm Jun 21, 2021 3:59pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I have not time for this, but I'd think a good trader would demand different terms. For example, they'd likely retain all the gains, plus 20% of the invested capital as a fee. After all, the beneficiaries of the exercise (the investors) should be willing to pay a fee. There is at least one trading tool on the market that would allow the test trader to mirror trades into their account plus the investors account, but wouldn't it be prudent to have the investor account in the name of the test trader? I think it need to be. Then there is the...
Quote
I'd think a good trader would demand different terms. For example, they'd likely retain all the gains, plus 20% of the invested capital as a fee. After all, the beneficiaries of the exercise (the investors) should be willing to pay a fee.
I think the offer is pretty reasonable. $100K or thereabouts for doing nothing other than their normal trading. Absolutely no risk. with a fairly high likelihood of winning. Anyway everything is negotiable but obviously not to the extent of 120% of the winnings. Perhaps you misunderstood the concept behind the proposal.

Quote
There is at least one trading tool on the market

The infrastructure is already set up and works fine.

Quote
but wouldn't it be prudent to have the investor account in the name of the test trader
I don't think that would be prudent at all. It is our money so we will manage it thank you very much. There will of course be a formal contract with the trader. Some of us are reputable, experienced business people so there is no basis for the trader to be concerned about not getting paid if the project is successful (wins).

Quote
And as soon as taxes come into the picture
When you make money, if you are ethical and honest you pay taxes. It is as simple as that.

Quote
This scheme seems complicated, at least if you like in the US.
We are Australian's so this project would be taking place within Australia. We are quite capable of managing the admin

Quote
The US-based trader would need to show their legal credentials for trading other peoples money
If a trader of any nationality feels they are restricted by local laws then that is their decisions and so be it. We don't care what nationality the trader is.
Technically speaking they would not be trading other people's money. The account would not be in traders name or under their direct control. They are providing trading signals (information/data). Yes it is somewhat of a grey area but it is highly unlikely to effect either us and even less so the trader. Paperwork for transferring the traders share of the winnings is a routine matter. We have a practicing lawyer on our team. She has already given the thumbs up to this project.

All we need is just one reasonably good trader Any takers? Please PM me
Don't Guess Test
  • #1,439
  • Jun 21, 2021 4:36pm Jun 21, 2021 4:36pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Hi Tim. Here in trading there are few logic issues everywhere. For example: 1. Profitable trader does not trade, but teaches 2. Profitable EA does not earn but for sale 3. Profitable strategy not used by it's creator but shares for free 4. Profitable trader searching for battles, challenges Why? No answer, just magic everywhere. Because people are so good, happy and kind. And only in trading. In the other world they are greedy and jealousy and only here there are selected good ones. May be that's why you can't find that trader? For example...
Quote
Maybe that's why you can't find that trader
Hey give me a break. I only got the OK from our team yesterday to put a post on the FF forum.

Quote
Because real traders they trade. Every day. Day by day
Yes we are looking for just one of those.
Let us say that this hypothetical real trader trades with say a $100K account and makes say 2-10% a month and meets our other quite reasonable performance criteria. We come along and say just stick our EA on your MT4/5 account and send us your trading signals. We put up all the money and if you perform as you say you can, after 12 months you get about $100K with absolutely no additional risk! If you screw up you get nothing and we get nothing. Of course first you will have to show us some proof that you are a capable and responsible trader. Therein lies the big problem.


Quote
What youtube channel will gain 500$ daily
How did YouTube get into the picture. I certainly never mentioned it. All I said was that I would make the live trading accounts accessible to a responsible person so that they can report the results of this project to this thread of this forum as proof of this experiment in high risk high reward trading. The trader can remain completely anonymous if they wish. They do not need to be concerned or even aware of what is happening to their signals. That is actually preferred.

Tim
Don't Guess Test
  • #1,440
  • Jun 21, 2021 5:24pm Jun 21, 2021 5:24pm
Quoting TraderTim125
{quote} {quote} I think the offer is pretty reasonable. $100K or thereabouts for doing nothing other than their normal trading. Absolutely no risk. with a fairly high likelihood of winning. Anyway everything is negotiable but obviously not to the extent of 120% of the winnings. Perhaps you misunderstood the concept behind the proposal. {quote} The infrastructure is already set up and works fine. {quote} I don't think that would be prudent at all. It is our money so we will manage it thank you very much. There will of course be...
Sorry, I seem to have stepped over a line here. I'm sure Australian's can manage without my input. My apologies!
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