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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #1,401
  • Jun 20, 2021 11:05am Jun 20, 2021 11:05am
Quoting TraderTim125
{quote} {quote} High risk, high return trading is an interesting subject. There is quite a lot more I could say about it but I would probably just be wasting my time and efforts. I would love to be able to have some more in depth discussions with people about some of the trading areas that I have been or currently are involved with. I don't think this is going to happen on this forum. Regards Tim
Financial trading is a no-brainer activity for people like me who want to run a speculation enterprise or as punters with some financial resources to bet.

But FF mostly attracts "effortless solutions for quick profits" seekers and those lacking financial resources. So FF is loved by Gurus because they get free space and a captive traffic of these quick money seekers. It is a fertile ground for attracting followers and diverting them to their own channels. Some are on ego-trips and they make noise and troll almost all the threads initially.

FF certainly is not a forum for in-depth discussions.

Pragmatists, like me, do find like-minded persons and if you are looking for making money, you are welcome to join our ranks.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #1,402
  • Jun 20, 2021 11:25am Jun 20, 2021 11:25am
Quoting TraderTim125
{quote} Hi again BlackNapkins

Tim,
First of all, thank you very much for your time… having doubt I am asking questions … and please take under consideration my poor English knowledge … this makes much more difficult for me to express my thoughts…
Anyway, I think I understood why and for what reason you wrote all that… will no discus this further.
Because I can not call myself trader that’s why I call my self beginner …
Once again Thank you for your time.
Stay well
  • #1,403
  • Edited 3:56pm Jun 20, 2021 11:26am | Edited 3:56pm
Quoting Winston Reed
Since we are talking about a 5% average then some trading days will yield less than 5% and some days will need yield more than 5% to make up the losses and keep the 5% average return. No matter how you do it the assumption must come out to a 5% return. A 5% return on capital (no matter how you do it) would result in the following.[.... compounding rate] Being able to maintain this rate of capital appreciation would be truly astounding and really not sustainable over any reasonable length of time.
Hi Winston,

The reality and assumptions of High Risk High Return (HRHR) trading are very different to those, that, for want of a better word, I will call investment trading.
Let me first define what I mean by investment trading.

You have a significant amount of capital. The first objective is or should be to protect that capital. You're second objective is to earn either a regular income or stable compounding return on that capital. If you have enough capital, perhaps both. This is what we might describe as "normal" trading.

HRHR trading is more like buying a ticket in a lottery. You are probably going to lose all of your capital (the price of the lottery ticket). But if you win you win big. Time in the market and risk of ruin become critical determinant factors. Returns due to compounding as you have correctly pointed out are astronomical. Developing a finite time based strategy for this sort of arrangement involves trying to juggle parameters to try and optimise the odds.

Here is a rough example. Please don't hold me to this as being any sort of factual or predictive model. I am just bouncing an idea around at this stage.
Suppose you invest $1000 in a "ticket". The HRHR system has the potential to generate a compounded return of say $100,000 in 12 months. You liquidate the account after that time assuming it survives that long. You determine through modelling and analysis that this system has a 90% chance of blowing the account within that 12 month period which means that it has a 10% chance of success. In other words your $1000 ticket has a utility value of 10% of $100,000 = $10,000.

To put it another way, for an investment of $1000 you have a 10% chance of "winning" $100,000 dollars after 1 year.

Of course there is no clear demarcation line between the two approaches.

There is quite a bit more to it than that but this should do as a start to the conversation.

Regards
Tim
Don't Guess Test
  • #1,404
  • Jun 20, 2021 11:33am Jun 20, 2021 11:33am
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} Tim, First of all, thank you very much for your time… having doubt I am asking questions … and please take under consideration my poor English knowledge … this makes much more difficult for me to express my thoughts… Anyway, I think I understood why and for what reason you wrote all that… will no discus this further. Because I can not call myself trader that’s why I call my self beginner … Once again Thank you for your time. Stay well
You are welcome. I am sympathetic to the language problem. It must be very difficult. I think it results in quite a lot of misunderstandings on this forum.
Regards
Tim
Don't Guess Test
  • #1,405
  • Edited 3:52pm Jun 20, 2021 12:08pm | Edited 3:52pm
Quoting simnz
{quote} Financial trading is a no-brainer activity for people like me who want to run a speculation enterprise or as punters with some financial resources to bet. But FF mostly attracts "effortless solutions for quick profits" seekers and those lacking financial resources. So FF is loved by Gurus because they get free space and a captive traffic of these quick money seekers. It is a fertile ground for attracting followers and diverting them to their own channels. Some are on ego-trips and they make noise and troll almost all the threads initially....

Quote
if you are looking for making money, you are welcome to join our ranks
Hi Simz,
I don't have a problem with making money but these days trading is more of a game than anything else. For me it is something to maintain my interest in life and a reason to get up in the morning.

Quote
Pragmatists, like me, do find like-minded person
Perhaps in time I will get to know people on the forum better. I have never been the greatest of social animals. There are at least a few other ratbags that seem to hang out here so I seem to be in reasonable company.

I was having an online conversation with another old trading friend this morning and said

Quote
For me, Forex is a mathematical mind game that I am still trying to
solve. Financially I am comfortably well off so trading is not really
about money. It is about numbers. A 5% monthly return with 2% or less
draw down gives me as much of a buzz on a $1000 account as it would on a
$100,000 account accept with the $100,000 account I get the "shakes" these days


Regards
Tim
Don't Guess Test
  • #1,406
  • Jun 20, 2021 4:40pm Jun 20, 2021 4:40pm
Trading is a Rorschach test disguised as a mathematical mind game that your old trading friend is still trying to solve.
  • #1,407
  • Jun 20, 2021 7:36pm Jun 20, 2021 7:36pm
Quoting Winston Reed
Since we are talking about a 5% average then some trading days will yield less than 5% and some days will need yield more than 5% to make up the losses and keep the 5% average return. No matter how you do it the assumption must come out to a 5% return. A 5% return on capital (no matter how you do it) would result in the following. (It's unnecessary to show trades below/above 5% because we are talking about an average). I hope everyone gets it. 10000 + 5% = 10500 10500 + 5% = 11025 11025+ 5% = 11576.25 11576.25 + 5% = 12155.0625 12155.0625 + 5% =...
You are, of course, correct.

The efforts to show how it might be done -- Peter consistently earning 5% per day -- are about as convincing as an attempt to show how Peter might move faster than the speed of light. Or how Peter might travel back in time. All three are fantasy and defy the laws of physics.

Peter is an inert object in time, space, and financial markets.
  • #1,408
  • Edited 10:06pm Jun 20, 2021 8:17pm | Edited 10:06pm
For people here who are unfamiliar with what a real life manual trader does .....

Monday morning, I look at the previous 2 weeks and see what has happened, how it played out and where it's up to now.

Because I am a manual trader, I do NOT rely on blind signals. So if for that week, the market I am looking at, offers 2 or 3 or 4 trades setups to my liking, then I will anticipate their outcomes with the understanding I may be wrong and in recognizing this, prepare for the "other options" that may play out. The REAL problem I see on this site, is most of you are just a consumer looking to "get" from the market. You clearly don't know how to track something, ESPECIALLY in a closed system that offers a controlled environment..... that "should", by the law of averages, work in your favor at least once in a while. But you keep arguing etc and do long drawn out calculations and expect someone, that you've really only just met (On a consumer based anonymous website) to "answer to you". Are you kidding me? Surely you see how childish this is?

5% is NOTHING if you are dealing with the market and not your silly, diluted ideas of these markets. Petty, misdirected ideas of these markets.

Someone who gets past all your consumer BS and just wants to learn how to trade for themself, can see that if you are selective about your trade setups, manage your MONEY (Gosh!! Really??!!), pay no attention to people who solicit immaturity, cynicism and a malnourished mind, then they can learn and then ...... guess what ?!! ..... They can do what NONE of you have done ...... move on with their lives, while you people are stuck here. ALL of you, no matter what rationale you try and use.

The problem is not with me, it's with your hang-ups. I can claim whatever I choose, that's my right. But knowing that I have no sinister agenda, every time that you people claim I do, you want proof. YOU are the proof. You're just a bunch of anonymous nobodies on a website. And since many have no semblance of basic common sense that you can apply to trading, you insist on pressuring someone YOU DON'T KNOW to bend to your wishes.

Everything about day trading is reflected on this thread - impatience, laziness, cynical over-reaching, selfish opportunism, lack of basic observation skills as well as good observation skills, good insight and VERY sad, deluded and polluted insights, keen sense of Life as well as a pathetic weak willed sense of it.

You can't cover this stuff up. And I don't answer to anyone here. The proof is in the doing for the person who divorces themself from consumer based stupidity.

I came to this site and ended up proving to others one simple thing - most people are out of their depth and can't see it.

Day trading is not what you people say it is. And until you learn that, you're just a bunch of nobodies trying to be something you're not, so you can forget you're a nobody, wishing you had some idea of anything real.

Forex factory is not real. It's just a bloody website people.

YOUR idea of proof and mine are worlds apart. You're still stumbling around pretending you're "socializing" ...... what a disgusting bloody joke.

I just hope none of you have children. I pity them.

Have fun.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,409
  • Jun 20, 2021 10:12pm Jun 20, 2021 10:12pm
If people just learn to respect the other they will grow that is the secret recipe.

we dont need to scoof, make fun of anyone to prove our selves a superman. Learn to accept the other person as he is.

If i disagree with someone i shouldn't have time to argue or prove someone is wrong if i am right that is enough for me to be right.

Please show some Patience and spend that time on learning.

Stay blessed everyone
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,410
  • Jun 20, 2021 10:50pm Jun 20, 2021 10:50pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
that "should", by the law of averages, work in your favor at least once in a while. But you keep arguing etc and do long drawn out calculations and expect someone, that you've really only just met (On a consumer based anonymous website) to "answer to you". Are you kidding me? Surely you see how childish this is? 5% is NOTHING if you are dealing with the market and not your silly, diluted ideas of these markets. Petty, misdirected ideas of these markets. Someone who gets past all your consumer BS and just wants to learn how to trade for themself,...
There is a diamond in this text , if someone can find it. I see it
  • #1,411
  • Jun 21, 2021 12:12am Jun 21, 2021 12:12am
Quoting PeterCaleb
For people here who are unfamiliar with what a real life manual trader does ..... Monday morning, I look at the previous 2 weeks and see what has happened, how it played out and where it's up to now. Because I am a manual trader, I do NOT rely on blind signals. So if for that week, the market I am looking at, offers 2 or 3 or 4 trades setups to my liking, then I will anticipate their outcomes with the understanding I may be wrong and in recognizing this, prepare for the "other options" that may play out. The REAL problem I see on this site, is most...
Can we expect some charts with 2 weeks ‘before’ analysis, with expected entry and exit to be made available?
Just trying to follow your teachings, but with my eyes closed, I’m afraid I’m failing miserably.
Even better, setup a journal with your predictions.

Cheers …
  • #1,412
  • Edited 12:49am Jun 21, 2021 12:36am | Edited 12:49am
hope chart speaks of itself
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I not only observed it but make some blues too, bingo !
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,413
  • Edited 1:38am Jun 21, 2021 1:19am | Edited 1:38am
Quoting PeterCaleb
I can claim whatever I choose, that's my right.
“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'” -- Issac Asimov

Yes, you can absolutely claim whatever you want, and we can assert that your claims are BS. We can also assert that your posts reflect the behavior of an insolent child in search of an audience. The insolent child does not get what it wants, so it stomps it's feet, and cries sour grapes, and claims to be misunderstood.

I just love democracy, don't you?

Quoting moodybot
{quote} Can we expect some charts with 2 weeks ‘before’ analysis, with expected entry and exit to be made available? Just trying to follow your teachings, but with my eyes closed, I’m afraid I’m failing miserably. Even better, setup a journal with your predictions. Cheers …
No. The hallmark of any wanna be guru is to avoid direct accountability at all costs. They will blame the audience for not understanding their convoluted posts. They will never put forth anything that can remotely be fact checked.

Their potential victims are to accept extraordinary claims because the guru says so.

Quoting GEfx
{quote} You are, of course, correct. The efforts to show how it might be done -- Peter consistently earning 5% per day -- are about as convincing as an attempt to show how Peter might move faster than the speed of light. Or how Peter might travel back in time. All three are fantasy and defy the laws of physics. Peter is an inert object in time, space, and financial markets.
Indeed, it is as if the guy says it enough times, it will come true.

He cares so little about anonymous people on an anonymous website that he can check out any time he likes, but he can never leave!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,414
  • Jun 21, 2021 2:37am Jun 21, 2021 2:37am
Quoting jmn5611
Indeed, it is as if the guy says it enough times, it will come true.
This is caled propoganda and it is working. Tell big lies loud enough, repeat that consistently and will get folowers. People love harisma and not the truth.
  • #1,415
  • Jun 21, 2021 3:05am Jun 21, 2021 3:05am
Quoting joyny
{quote} This is caled propoganda and it is working. Tell big lies loud enough, repeat that consistently and will get folowers. People love harisma and not the truth.
Yes, I study history extensively as a hobby for market reasons. There was a powerful organization that took over a country through propaganda. Their head of propaganda said as much publicly. The bigger the lie, the more people will believe it if it is repeated often enough. I need not call names here. A good Google search will tell an individual all they need to know about the "Big Lie".
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,416
  • Jun 21, 2021 3:11am Jun 21, 2021 3:11am
Quoting PeterCaleb
For people here who are unfamiliar with what a real life manual trader does ..... Monday morning, I look at the previous 2 weeks and see what has happened, how it played out and where it's up to now. Because I am a manual trader, I do NOT rely on blind signals. So if for that week, the market I am looking at, offers 2 or 3 or 4 trades setups to my liking, then I will anticipate their outcomes with the understanding I may be wrong and in recognizing this, prepare for the "other options" that may play out. The REAL problem I see on this site, is most...

First of all, change that font size, i need to take few steps away from my monitor to read it.

Second, you are just curving the words and spinning the verbs. I didn't want to call you a scam at first but now i see a big brat with a big mouth who knows nothing about people here and nothing about trading. All you are talking about is your silly mathematical theory about how to get 5% a day, well let me tell you something; YOU GET WHAT THE MARKET GIVES. Sometimes it can be more than 5%, sometimes there will be no volatility at all. So it doesn't make any sense to chase 5% everyday. You can't force the market, you can't cap it, you can't limit it. We can control everything in our trading except the outcome. What you say is not something an experienced trader can say, that just shows how noob you are.

You think you are smart by keep telling that you are thinking outside the box, your way of thinking is awesome etc. Get over yourself mate, you don't matter. If you were that great, you would show us proofs that will confirm you are a profitable trader. But you can't, because you are not. Get over yourself loser, stop praising yourself. Let the other's praise you if you are doing something right.

You damage this community with your misleading, wrong information. You are a scam, loser, liar and an idiot. You are misleading newbies here. Prove that you are profitable and i will take my words back. Otherwise that's what you are. Do what you preach and show the results. And don't forget to get yourself a life, loser.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #1,417
  • Jun 21, 2021 5:41am Jun 21, 2021 5:41am
==========================================

Seeing as the rules are the same for all of us .... That means all of you AND me.

My suggestion to someone who wants to learn to trade would be this ...

* Usually there is no reason to join any site to be able to access the information and knowledge found on the site. Trading sites are known for changing the way people think. It's important to understand that opinions are not going to help you learn how you can trade. Only what you can do is important.

* Know that you are alone. Trading is an activity best done on you own without any influences from other people. Everything you do needs to be done independent of everyone. You need to know that no other trader cares about your trading more than you. You will need to be neutral and objective and do all the research you can to create a blueprint on...

- About Trading

- How to trade

... And it is best for you to do it as thoroughly as you can, without interference from anyone.

* It's a good idea not to follow anyone.

* It's a good idea not to get involved in all the talk from people. There's a reason why they say the crowd is wrong most of the time.

* When doing research online, remember that people online are not your friends and you need to protect yourself. When possible, do not join or participate in any site or apparent socializing as it is not real and will distract you from your research and learning.

* Most people congregate on trading sites to feel that they belong. However fake relationships won't help someone learn as you simply do not know who you are talking to and therefore will never know if the information is real and true until you do your own private research.

* Retail traders are not well respected in the financial world and this is not an accident. Most people never do quality research about the industry.

* It is your future so you need to do the work.

* Most retail traders look to their peers to help them. You need to learn they cannot teach what they do not know. And usually that is why their trading has not advanced any further.

* You need to maintain your self respect when doing your research. There will be many who will test you.

* I don't want you to follow me. You won't trade as I do. You need to find out how you see everything.

* People are easily coralled like sheep and this makes them easier to manipulate, particularly on trading sites. Your job is to be better than them and do better than them. But this won't happen if you become one of them.

Have Fun and Good Luck.


Peter


==========================================
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,418
  • Jun 21, 2021 6:10am Jun 21, 2021 6:10am
Quoting PeterCaleb
Usually there is no reason to join any site to be able to access the information and knowledge found on the site. Trading sites are known for changing the way people think. It's important to understand that opinions are not going to help you learn how you can trade.
What is reason you are here?

Quoting PeterCaleb
It's a good idea not to get involved in all the talk from people.
Why you get involved here in this thread?

Quoting PeterCaleb
When possible, do not join or participate in any site or apparent socializing as it is not real and will distract you from your research and learning.
Why you joined here?
  • #1,419
  • Jun 21, 2021 7:30am Jun 21, 2021 7:30am
Gold - Entry at ICT breaker, along with Fib and Round no confluence targeting the opening Gap.
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,420
  • Jun 21, 2021 7:41am Jun 21, 2021 7:41am
I played with gold a bit, too

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