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  • #1,201
  • Jun 12, 2021 8:45pm Jun 12, 2021 8:45pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Peter You have it just a bit wrong. Data junky's as you described it - it see it first. We see price move seconds after its occurred and like a train, once it moves it takes a while to stop. We are now in the money - Meanwhile Peter is down the news agent buying yesterdays newspaper to see what happen the day before. This is a day trading thread, not "whatever" investing real life. Peter, could you please just post like a normal person instead of calling everyone a - Wanker loser Dickhead Lazy Fool Stupid Those words were used in your...
Almost all economists major in history. They are only good at telling us why this and that happen last week or month. With all their theories and math formulas NONE, not a single economist saw the Great Recession,1987 stock market crash, etc.
  • #1,202
  • Jun 12, 2021 9:04pm Jun 12, 2021 9:04pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
But if you're a data junky, you are always the last to see what's happening and feasibly, what will happen next. Fact of Life. Deal with it. Enjoy. Peter
May I invite you to join me to take this free challenge offered.
There are 3 stages to complete. We just need to passed the 3 challenge stages, don't need to pay them for the funded account.
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Just said if we passed the 3 stages then we earned the right to write bullshit nonsensical moronic essay in FF.

btw this is a very good opportunity for us to test our ability to trade within some set rules than to paper trade or demo trade.
Don't have to pay US$300 for the funded account, use that money and look for your own broker.
  • #1,203
  • Jun 12, 2021 9:18pm Jun 12, 2021 9:18pm
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Sorry Peter the challenge is made for highly experienced trader only.
  • #1,204
  • Jun 12, 2021 9:53pm Jun 12, 2021 9:53pm
Just your friendly speculating data junky getting a data fix with a post containing completely useless information.

Disclaimer: This is the EURJPY 60 minute chart. I did absolutely no research into the fundamentals of the countries' currencies involved. All useless comments are completely based in completely useless technical analysis and anyone who listens and profits from this completely useless analysis assumes full responsibility for their own actions.

On this 60 minute historical EURJPY price chart, which is completely useless, price has been trending up with a rhythm shown by the colored trend lines and rectangles. This Friday price retraced about the length of a swing previously measured by the purple designations and transposed to the current retracement. Of completely useless note a possible down trend has emerged shown by the green designations. Given this data and being completely satisfied by it I speculated the possibility that price could turn back to the upside and continue a swinging behavior to the upside reminiscent of the previous purple swing. It could make a new high or perhaps the turn up would end at the size of the previous green downtrend swing. Either way Mondays price action (another completely useless term commonly used by data junkies) will reveal. Ahhhhh. I feel so good now but this fix will only last a short time so I'm on to more data mining, technical analysis and completely useless speculation.
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  • #1,205
  • Jun 12, 2021 9:56pm Jun 12, 2021 9:56pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Beats me why you are wasting your time Pete!
God damn it - thanks for reminding me only to reply to real traders.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,206
  • Jun 12, 2021 10:33pm Jun 12, 2021 10:33pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} God damn it - thanks for reminding me only to reply to real traders.
Man, I even called you Pete…
  • #1,207
  • Edited 11:37pm Jun 12, 2021 11:09pm | Edited 11:37pm
Someone has watched too many times Paul Tudor Jones document, his earlier days, when he was placing orders, using a telephone, i mean real telephone in real life, real physical line, not those where is screen or data.

That GU/Soros, was one time event, and there has been also great movements later like a 2014, when ALL and markets didn't collapse (like a 2020 march event)
I have been reading and listening these Senior Gentleman's Soros ex pal Jim Rogers and Marc Faber .... long time, good wisdom and entertainment.

Attacking most of the time, I don't know is his roots from deep south where Afro Americans use to call boys , and somewhere still.
Maybe he still call native Australians also boys and shout them bring him lemonade.

Its quite rude. Thats why I call him psychopath, because he can't pass test of Voight-Kampff ("Blade Runner question where turtle is upside down" )

The purpose of dude is distract this thread and George's thread similar kind of information "20 yrs experience" as this thread starter remonpilip.
He talks keeping position open longer period is much more safer, way trade and short term traders will be looser.

When long term trades starts look like a investments and are not just a trades. How about these cleaning operations and long term position while you see you are ´+40% draw down. like a march 2020.
If I am visible for bullets shorter period, i will survive longer,"Exposure", my DD is lower than these "investors/long term traders"
I mean now what remonpilip claims in a forex forum and forex trading.

P. Dude spits these meaningless sentence as monkey stuck his ass into spinning sprinkler water hose which should moist lawn, of his enema procedure,where all stuff is going out from his mouth.

So no point get stuck same way. Would be glad read other peoples posts.

Forex factory admins should be little bit more careful, what let people get out from they mouth, your office is in U.S.A and "boy" kind of words are not really in fashion there, it can burn shops and towns. I mean if someone come to call me boy in Peters real life, i would let my girlfriends little sister kick HIS plastic pussy.

Peter thank you for posting a Chart.
  • #1,208
  • Jun 12, 2021 11:37pm Jun 12, 2021 11:37pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Ihlas; Look for Levels on Higher Time Frames (M30 H1 H4 D1) Then watch Lower Time Frames (M5 M1) for Structure and Flow to take Entries
Hi StevePatt,
The thing I want to point out is that we can know what's going to happen on the right side of the chart. (even one week before) I use only LTF for everything to see the current situation and what's going to happen next. From what I see, market drives the price to predetermined levels. It's llike an equation a=b.

Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Ihlas Liquidity is just a collection of bids and asks that seek to be balanced. The problem is once balanced, the market will only drift without any real purpose or direction. To achieve a trend, we need to see either bids or asks increase by more than 3:1 in size on balanced density. We get no movement either if the density of orders is compacted tightly regardless of size on one side of the order book. So what is my point. For price to turn bullish, we need more sellers to panic. The big players will turn the price bearish first to...
Hi RickM,
Thanks for your time and I got it. It can be used for very short-term (1M) trades and you do it successfully. Why should we care about liquidity if there's predetermined levels?
Thanks
  • #1,209
  • Jun 13, 2021 12:03am Jun 13, 2021 12:03am
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  • #1,210
  • Edited 1:25am Jun 13, 2021 1:13am | Edited 1:25am
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} Hi StevePatt, The thing I want to point out is that we can know what's going to happen on the right side of the chart. (even one week before) I use only LTF for everything to see the current situation and what's going to happen next. From what I see, market drives the price to predetermined levels. It's llike an equation a=b. {quote} Hi RickM, Thanks for your time and I got it. It can be used for very short-term (1M) trades and you do it successfully. Why should we care about liquidity if there's predetermined levels? Thanks
Hi Ihlas

Big players are in a battle with breakout traders who are just smaller bankers and retail traders. Their combined aggressive market orders will destroy the major players plans as the liquidity they provide to the market destroys the balance of the order book. This is a real thread to their profitability because the player or players than control either the Bids or Asks controls the profits and determines the market direction.

The Big players on average only have ONE card to play a day, the smaller institutions seem to have around TWELVE cards to play a day on average (EURUSD) so the big player can't make a mistake. If they time their entry incorrectly, they risk been swamped by the herd.
They also apply many smaller orders a day which we cannot see, but they are only a supporting cast to the main show.

What does this have to do with your predetermined levels?.

The predetermined levels are there to prevent breakout traders from gaining control of the order books. This is why we often see price move to yesterdays low but bounce back to form double bottoms. They remain in control if the situation of a double bottom remains, but if price moves 5 pips lower, the herd of breakout traders will swamp the market.
If they enter, it's only because that one trader who controls the books wants it that way.

Therefore predetermined levels are just really the control point of market direction. They can choose to pull back price and remain in control, or release control by pushing price a few more pips.

My point is this. If liquidity is needed to transfer wealth from one big player to another, they need liquidity to remain unbalanced until it reaches areas where they can transfer their orders into profits. If we can read the Bids & Asks and see one side is barren - we can ride with them until liquidity becomes dense on both sides.
So we should care if liquidity is unbalanced regardless of your predetermined levels.

Trade the journey till we get to the destination because we don't know who we will meet or why.

This is just my opinion after watching the data of orders flow through the market every single day - Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,211
  • Jun 13, 2021 3:22am Jun 13, 2021 3:22am
Quoting BlackNapkins
https://youtu.be/zrzMhU_4m-g
I wonder about subscribers of PeterCaleb... Can' t you see what/how he is talking? Do you like & support all this:

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Subscribers of PeterCaleb, please explain what value you get from him? Why do you decided him to follow?
  • #1,212
  • Jun 13, 2021 3:27am Jun 13, 2021 3:27am
Quoting gepards
{quote} I wonder about subscribers of PeterCaleb... Can' t you see what/how he is talking? Do you like & support all this: {image}{image}{image}{image} Subscribers of PeterCaleb, please explain what value you get from him? Why do you decided him to follow?
nec Hercules contra plures
  • #1,213
  • Jun 13, 2021 3:54am Jun 13, 2021 3:54am
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} nec Hercules contra plures
Tnx for the answer. Translated your Latin proverb and it seems like this: "Even Hercules is a wimp, when he must fight against heaps of enemies."

So you think PeterCaleb uses a rude & offense style to challenge people so they reveal their trading secrets... yes? ok, that could be a good point.

The same strategy of communication worked well for Hitler and Trump. It is working. Yes, I agree. PeterCaleb has 30 followers and I have 6. I started FF May 2020, PeterCaleb started Nov 2020. He is far better than me at networking.

I post real results, real trading strategies... you can see all my entries/exits in myfxbook.. nobody even noticed that.~120% yearly profits is not interesting? Too small profits? Please explain what I do wrong? What is bad in my strategy... for example trading MSFT stock? Why it is not interesting? 15 years history backtests not enough? What do I need to consider more?
  • #1,214
  • Jun 13, 2021 3:58am Jun 13, 2021 3:58am
Quoting gepards
{quote} Tnx for the answer. Translated your Latin proverb and it seems like this: "Even Hercules is a wimp, when he must fight against heaps of enemies." So you think PeterCaleb uses a rude & offense style to challenge people so they reveal their trading secrets... yes? ok, that could be a good point. The same strategy of communication worked well for Hitler and Trump. It is working. Yes, I agree. PeterCaleb has 30 followers and I have 6. I started FF May 2020, PeterCaleb started Nov 2020. He is far better than me at networking. I...
Congratulation... good job
  • #1,215
  • Jun 13, 2021 4:31am Jun 13, 2021 4:31am
Quoting gepards
{quote} I wonder about subscribers of PeterCaleb... Can' t you see what/how he is talking? Do you like & support all this: {image}{image}{image}{image} Subscribers of PeterCaleb, please explain what value you get from him? Why do you decided him to follow?
Funny you should mention that.
I’ve been wondering whether Peter is a reincarnation of a previous ‘face’….
Humans tend to return back to type, difficult to change their ways.
Quick search of Peters posted images, attitude and language strike an uncanny resemblance to those presented by another member… our old friend FX Primate….

So I think he’s FX Primate committed in the trading room and the weapon was his keyboard.
  • #1,216
  • Jun 13, 2021 5:09am Jun 13, 2021 5:09am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Ihlas Big players are in a battle with breakout traders who are just smaller bankers and retail traders. Their combined aggressive market orders will destroy the major players plans as the liquidity they provide to the market destroys the balance of the order book. This is a real thread to their profitability because the player or players than control either the Bids or Asks controls the profits and determines the market direction. The Big players on average only have ONE card to play a day, the smaller institutions seem to have around...
Again thank you for your time.
Here's the chart. So how can we now where the price will move (longer term) with the data of orderflow? IMHO the data can show what's happening now and few minutes later. Can it show the intention and destination of price movement from up to down? Big red zone is very well structured and it's not about support and resistance line. There are few more details that should be paid attention. For example, if price drops to 1.40457, the whole structure is damaged.
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  • #1,217
  • Jun 13, 2021 5:36am Jun 13, 2021 5:36am
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} Again thank you for your time. Here's the chart. So how can we now where the price will move (longer term) with the data of orderflow? IMHO the data can show what's happening now and few minutes later. Can it show the intention and destination of price movement from up to down? Big red zone is very well structured and it's not about support and resistance line. There are few more details that should be paid attention. For example, if price drops to 1.40457, the whole structure is damaged. {image}
Your rectangles are meaningless. And your chart just showing the past. It is useless. We can't know where the price will move. It can ruin all your prediction abd break all your lines and rectangles (and will for sure) in few seconds/minutes.

If you want to trade like RickM says you must have real volume and real orderflow data. And then you can "predict" few movements. And not on M30 chart. M1 or may be M3 max. There is no need to check higher TFs, since it make no sense. It is like to watch at the train that has already gone.
Observer effect
  • #1,218
  • Jun 13, 2021 5:42am Jun 13, 2021 5:42am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Your rectangles are meaningless. And your chart just showing the past. It is useless. We can't know where the price will move. It can ruin all your prediction abd break all your lines and rectangles (and will for sure) in few seconds/minutes. If you want to trade like RickM says you must have real volume and real orderflow data. And then you can "predict" few movements. And not on M30 chart. M1 or may be M3 max. There is no need to check higher TFs, since it make no sense. It is like to watch at the train that has already gone.
Do you mean the saying that the market is fractal is a myth?
  • #1,219
  • Jun 13, 2021 5:48am Jun 13, 2021 5:48am
Just a bit of a trading rant

Hi Simnz

Thank you very much for your kind offer to supply me with Fx Futures data but I will decline your offer for the time being. I ordered one month of recent FX Futures intraday history from a commercial supplier (CQG Data factory). They initially delivered me the wrong data so I have to go through that annoying and time wasting dance with them but I guess I will eventually get the data I ordered and paid for.

I look forward to running it through the number cruncher and seeing what comes out the other end. My gut feeling at this time is that it won’t be too different from the GBPUSD tests that I did but I could be very wrong. If I am very wrong I will still publish the outcome of the EURUSD test on this forum thread and show everybody what a silly old fool I am.

Quote
I use IB mobile trader to execute trades. Not even desktop
.

I have thought about that myself but haven’t done anything about it yet. It is not too hard to do these days. I don’t go out a lot and if I miss or mess up a trade opportunity once in a while I don’t really care. My days of taking trading too seriously are long past.

Quote
I analyse trades on MT4 because it is easier for an indicator to generate spreadsheets for probability studies. My consistent profitability is largely because of the probability statistics the spreadsheets churn out


I also make quite a lot of use of automated techniques to statistically analyse trade results. I do this for my own trading as well as for a few of my trading buddies. We use to do this on a weekly basis but now days we do it on a monthly basis. I think it definitely helps to improve trading over time.

Quote
My trading strategy veers around Daily Open as the axis of trade rotation. Trade rotation can be measured by Pips, Percentage, or tick volume. I use Pips while RickM uses volume. Some use percentages as well.

My base strategy is pretty simple but I am just starting to integrate volume into it. It was the discussions about volume and order flow that attracted me to this thread. Generally I convert everything to percentages because I find it easier to compare results from different traders. Some people also like to think in terms of dollars so I normalise all the results to use the same amount of trading capital ($10K) which again makes comparisons between traders more meaningful. I have learnt the hard way that good traders are not necessary good at arithmetic. I try to make it as easy as possible for others even when I don’t agree with the way they think or do things.

Quote
I don't know Excel or any programming language
.

In my experience, the majority of good traders have little or no programming ability or skills.
On the other hand the majority of people that I have come across who muck around trying to program EA robots etc often have little or no real trading skills. There are of course people who have both but it is not that common.

Quote
I don't use any technical indicators, Moving Averages, oscillators, or Bollinger Bands.
I use a small number of indicators but only for measuring. My most used indicator is the daily Average True Range(ATR) or Daily Average Range (DAR). The other indicator I use quite a bit is actually a drawing tool in Metatrader. It is linear regression or the Linear Regression Channel if you want a visual representation. I find it useful for measuring things like trends. Many people don’t seem to realise that a price chart is highly subjective depending on how you scale the X and Y axis. You can change price movement from a sideways pattern to a steep trend just by scaling. Measuring things has always been an important part of my trading but this seems to really get up the nose of some people.

Quote
My brain makes the decisions
Brains are good. My ongoing love affair with MetaTrader started in 2006 – about 15 years ago – when it was the shiny new toy in the sandbox. For it’s time it had a very sophisticated programming interface that grabbed my attention. The very first thing I did with it was to create a trading robot. Over the years I have probably created hundreds of the damn things. The performance of the best of them was only mediocre and we wont even talk about the worst ones.

Today I use a hybrid system. I use EA’s to monitor the market for trade opportunities but then open the trade manually after looking at what the EA offers. Mostly it comes up with pretty good trades but sometimes it also comes up with crap. I use another EA to monitor the open trade but I move stops and close the trade manually unless of course it hits a stop - hopefully my TP

This way I am letting EA’s do all the tedious and time consuming grunt work while I make the key decisions. I only need to spend a few minutes each day in front of a trading terminal. I usually only take one trade a day which works out to be about 15 trades a month. My trades on average used to last about 12 hours but I have noticed that since I have started using volume the trade time has reduced dramatically because the entries and exits are more accurate

When RickM talks about taking 200 trades a day in a 5 hour session my head starts to spin and I start feeling nauseous. I have been there and done that. Before I started mucking around with MetaTrader I day traded stocks for a few years but it got to be too much like hard work. Now that I’m officially an old fart I believe I am entitled to just potter around and do whatever I enjoy.

As for replacing the human brain for making trading decisions with a computer/ EA/Robot or whatever you want to call it - that is a hard one. I am not saying it can’t be done or that no one has been able to do it but it has so far evaded me.

For me Forex trading is a mind game. It is arguably the most challenging mind game on the planet. Successfully cracking that mind game with artificial intelligence is another mind game to be reckoned with.

Regards
Tim
Don't Guess Test
  • #1,220
  • Jun 13, 2021 5:55am Jun 13, 2021 5:55am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Your rectangles are meaningless. And your chart just showing the past. It is useless. We can't know where the price will move. It can ruin all your prediction abd break all your lines and rectangles (and will for sure) in few seconds/minutes. If you want to trade like RickM says you must have real volume and real orderflow data. And then you can "predict" few movements. And not on M30 chart. M1 or may be M3 max. There is no need to check higher TFs, since it make no sense. It is like to watch at the train that has already gone.
Yes, the rectangles are meaningless. It's just demonstration. You are restricting yourself from wonderful things. Let the price talk. Look at the chart when it hits 1.43.
I don't want to trade like anybody else. Mine is enough for myself.
If you can foresee few movements then you can also see the whole picture.
I use 1M and 5M.
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