Here is a stress test for people who have doubts about certain aspects of their thinking and understanding .......This is me trying to be helpful so if anyone wants to throw trash talk, then so be it. Peter
- #1,162
- Jun 11, 2021 11:33pm Jun 11, 2021 11:33pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2020 | 2,353 Posts
Real Trading is not gambling.
- #1,163
- Jun 11, 2021 11:40pm Jun 11, 2021 11:40pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2020 | 2,353 Posts
OK, let's indulge.
Any real life, stress test cannot and should NEVER be done with internalized data. Why not? The proficiency is always skewed as no one market is an island.
So my stress tests are always performed pro rata with what is called Price Ratings.
While some people try to use past data = data that is eg 10 or 20 yrs back for backtesting purposes, a counter market must be used to gain considerably higher, real life probability rating scores. Please note - When I talk about these things I am referring to real life outcomes and never just intellectualized "data"/over-optimized data.
And while some people believe 'similar' is all you need, the mistake is to ignore the fact that if one market falls then so too does the other. If you have doubts, ask the people who traded the GBP in 1992, or the EURUSD more recently in March 2020.
Now go read about this ....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash
Of course I am generalizing here as I don't have the time to lay out all the details but you should see the reference.
Price Ratings are a bridge between the real world and what is now, the digital sandpit of the financial world.
If you have ever researched Soros' trade of '92, him and Drukenmiller used Price Ratings to keep an eye on the circumstances of that trade. It combines real world with price discovery vs retracement/correction.
The principle is = Who, What .... to help determine the why, always working backwards. Why it has led to X, why X IS continuing and why X could turn into Y or Z.
Price Ratings is more effective a predictor than "trade setup" formation stress testing because market movements always occur AFTER some action has taken place. And the action comes from a determined decision based on a variety of identified/approved options. And these are observed by the circumstances of the "participant". And 'participant' could relate to anyone, with shallow OR deep pockets.
An example of my use of Price Ratings came in earlier posts - in 2 forms ......
And now look at that Soros trade of '92 ....
https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/Uo...pt-04-09-1.jpg
And now go look at your own EURUSD Daily chart for the month of March 2020.
* The so-called 'fundamental analysis' that people say they do, is really nothing but speculating on what they interpret and filter as being relevant.
So a stress test must be made of ingredients that deliberately make the trader uncomfortable and force them to stretch their knowledge.
Daily circumstances on a chart are not "unpredictable" in the traditional sense, they are more foreseeable than "predictable".
If I was someone who intraday traded with ONLY Price Ratings to guide me, then I could do it. So could you. But not via "economic news" etc. My pics of PR are just two of my own making, from my understanding of the categories of what money flows through the markets and has taken many years to understand. But as I have "tried" to explain, Order Flow and "data" are an effect and certain types of delinquency is inevitable, as is redundancy.
I think like a person who looks at the world then looks at the function of a market and then look at who NEEDS to be present in that market THEN look at a chart.
Many people do not understand that PR's are the bread and butter for someone who sees the need to go beyond cherry picking approaches.
At this point, %'s are skewed and it's not difficult to gain substantial position over participants who are displacing the "norm". RickM talks about the 'games' some participants play at, but what he's not seeing is, the why. WHY is more present and important because the why MAKES the game you see played "on the chart".
Why a fund would "today", place a % of their money into that market. The same assumption is always made - to make money. Yes sure, but sometimes they cannot afford to do what they "want" to do because their quota is already met, yet they do it anyway. Or, there's another real life reason. But unless you look under the hood of that category, you're just guessing.
A person could spend years positing what this chart is and is for.
I don't use it as a "technical chart". I use it to forgo the assumptions (I and everyone alike make) so I can focus on the why. In my experience if you neglect the why, then you are always reacting to what happens. While reacting you can never get out in front of anything.
If someone insists on using charting as the basis for their trading, I would still learn the why. Even if, like me, you translate that into a digitized representation, at least you know that you have one foot in reality and one foot on the throat of the market when it glares at your wallet.
I'm not sure if that helps. Hopefully it does. MOST people have to come to terms with the real life fact that not ALL relevant and necessary information is set on any chart. Your chart should only be a car's windscreen and nothing more.
It's an oxymoron and I think literally insane to expect to trade forever with just an anecdotal idea of how this world works.
On the chart or off, profits are kept by keeping ahead of the market you trade and not by allowing yourself to be kept behind the 8-ball.
Peter
Any real life, stress test cannot and should NEVER be done with internalized data. Why not? The proficiency is always skewed as no one market is an island.
So my stress tests are always performed pro rata with what is called Price Ratings.
While some people try to use past data = data that is eg 10 or 20 yrs back for backtesting purposes, a counter market must be used to gain considerably higher, real life probability rating scores. Please note - When I talk about these things I am referring to real life outcomes and never just intellectualized "data"/over-optimized data.
And while some people believe 'similar' is all you need, the mistake is to ignore the fact that if one market falls then so too does the other. If you have doubts, ask the people who traded the GBP in 1992, or the EURUSD more recently in March 2020.
Now go read about this ....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash
Of course I am generalizing here as I don't have the time to lay out all the details but you should see the reference.
Price Ratings are a bridge between the real world and what is now, the digital sandpit of the financial world.
If you have ever researched Soros' trade of '92, him and Drukenmiller used Price Ratings to keep an eye on the circumstances of that trade. It combines real world with price discovery vs retracement/correction.
The principle is = Who, What .... to help determine the why, always working backwards. Why it has led to X, why X IS continuing and why X could turn into Y or Z.
Price Ratings is more effective a predictor than "trade setup" formation stress testing because market movements always occur AFTER some action has taken place. And the action comes from a determined decision based on a variety of identified/approved options. And these are observed by the circumstances of the "participant". And 'participant' could relate to anyone, with shallow OR deep pockets.
An example of my use of Price Ratings came in earlier posts - in 2 forms ......
And now look at that Soros trade of '92 ....
https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/Uo...pt-04-09-1.jpg
And now go look at your own EURUSD Daily chart for the month of March 2020.
* The so-called 'fundamental analysis' that people say they do, is really nothing but speculating on what they interpret and filter as being relevant.
So a stress test must be made of ingredients that deliberately make the trader uncomfortable and force them to stretch their knowledge.
Daily circumstances on a chart are not "unpredictable" in the traditional sense, they are more foreseeable than "predictable".
If I was someone who intraday traded with ONLY Price Ratings to guide me, then I could do it. So could you. But not via "economic news" etc. My pics of PR are just two of my own making, from my understanding of the categories of what money flows through the markets and has taken many years to understand. But as I have "tried" to explain, Order Flow and "data" are an effect and certain types of delinquency is inevitable, as is redundancy.
I think like a person who looks at the world then looks at the function of a market and then look at who NEEDS to be present in that market THEN look at a chart.
Many people do not understand that PR's are the bread and butter for someone who sees the need to go beyond cherry picking approaches.
At this point, %'s are skewed and it's not difficult to gain substantial position over participants who are displacing the "norm". RickM talks about the 'games' some participants play at, but what he's not seeing is, the why. WHY is more present and important because the why MAKES the game you see played "on the chart".
Why a fund would "today", place a % of their money into that market. The same assumption is always made - to make money. Yes sure, but sometimes they cannot afford to do what they "want" to do because their quota is already met, yet they do it anyway. Or, there's another real life reason. But unless you look under the hood of that category, you're just guessing.
A person could spend years positing what this chart is and is for.
I don't use it as a "technical chart". I use it to forgo the assumptions (I and everyone alike make) so I can focus on the why. In my experience if you neglect the why, then you are always reacting to what happens. While reacting you can never get out in front of anything.
If someone insists on using charting as the basis for their trading, I would still learn the why. Even if, like me, you translate that into a digitized representation, at least you know that you have one foot in reality and one foot on the throat of the market when it glares at your wallet.
I'm not sure if that helps. Hopefully it does. MOST people have to come to terms with the real life fact that not ALL relevant and necessary information is set on any chart. Your chart should only be a car's windscreen and nothing more.
It's an oxymoron and I think literally insane to expect to trade forever with just an anecdotal idea of how this world works.
On the chart or off, profits are kept by keeping ahead of the market you trade and not by allowing yourself to be kept behind the 8-ball.
Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
Here is a stress test for people who have doubts about certain aspects of their thinking and understanding ....... {image} This is me trying to be helpful so if anyone wants to throw trash talk, then so be it. Peter
"- where it (the EURJPY) started the day vs the rest of the space"..GBPUSD in this case
thanks
FIT
Close Trade At Profit
- #1,165
- Edited 1:11am Jun 12, 2021 12:58am | Edited 1:11am
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Offline | 3,298 Posts
"Exchange of hands"
- #1,168
- Jun 12, 2021 2:05am Jun 12, 2021 2:05am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trade Small, Win Big | 4,988 Posts
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
- #1,170
- Jun 12, 2021 3:47am Jun 12, 2021 3:47am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2020 | 2,353 Posts
Real Trading is not gambling.
- #1,171
- Jun 12, 2021 3:51am Jun 12, 2021 3:51am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2020 | 2,353 Posts
Real Trading is not gambling.
- #1,172
- Jun 12, 2021 3:52am Jun 12, 2021 3:52am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2020 | 2,353 Posts
Real Trading is not gambling.
- #1,173
- Jun 12, 2021 3:55am Jun 12, 2021 3:55am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2020 | 2,353 Posts
Real Trading is not gambling.
- #1,174
- Jun 12, 2021 4:00am Jun 12, 2021 4:00am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2020 | 2,353 Posts
Real Trading is not gambling.
- #1,175
- Jun 12, 2021 4:00am Jun 12, 2021 4:00am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trade Small, Win Big | 4,988 Posts
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
- #1,176
- Jun 12, 2021 4:18am Jun 12, 2021 4:18am
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Offline | 3,298 Posts
{quote} Hi Bilal, No sorry, not what I was talking about. Keep researching and thinking. In the last 1-2 weeks I have discussed a number of things related to what I am talking about. Research more. Michael has opinions and insights. If you want to call them teachings then fair enough, but from my experience and exposure to the world markets, that is all they are. Peter
learning never stops but its very hard to sync total daily spending and money flow, interest interest, govt tax laws, debt cycles, current account deficit, reserves balance into day trading.
"Exchange of hands"
- #1,177
- Jun 12, 2021 4:58am Jun 12, 2021 4:58am
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Trader/Coder | 1,929 Posts
An example of my use of Price Ratings
Master, could you please explain:
1. Why the world your grid starts from nowhere (10-100)? Because you want to show us the magic how 90-100 touched the top?
2. How the distance of each step calculated? (Let me guess. It is static.)
3. Why you choose 18 Jan 22:45 as your rice Ratings start? We should start calculations at 22:45? When you created that grid? 22 Jan at 22:45 or 20 Jan after 10:45? What this chart for? Where was your entry? Where you were planning to exit?
P.S. Please don't ask me to keep researching, thinking, learning and other bullshit. Just answer the questions. There are 3 simple direct questions.
Observer effect
{quote} Hi Peter! Master, could you please explain: 1. Why the world your grid starts from nowhere (10-100)? Because you want to show us the magic how 90-100 touched the top? 2. How the distance of each step calculated? (Let me guess. It is static.) 3. Why you choose 18 Jan 22:45 as your rice Ratings start? We should start calculations at 22:45? When you created that grid? 22 Jan at 22:45 or 20 Jan after 10:45? What this chart for? Where was your entry? Where you were planning to exit? {image} P.S. Please don't ask me to keep researching, thinking,...
- #1,180
- Jun 12, 2021 7:11am Jun 12, 2021 7:11am
OK, let's indulge. -ball. Peter
Like this -
TradeReport_compact.mq4
We will trade any time from Monday Asian Open to London Closed and post our report by New York Open.
We will learn from our losing and winning trades together. Just set aside our ego and learn together.
No worries if you turn down this invitation for we know the reasons.