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WTI Crude Oil Trading

  • #9,561
  • Jun 10, 2021 4:17pm Jun 10, 2021 4:17pm
WTI went up 34¢ today with a higher than average ATR that produced 4 winning trades although the last signal produced a minuscule trade.
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  • #9,562
  • Jun 10, 2021 11:43pm Jun 10, 2021 11:43pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Instead of "bullish" you might as well have said "bull shit" since the big drop lasted 3 minutes as seen in the chart below.
Well said.

Still trading above $70.00, I couldn't help but notice. : )
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #9,563
  • Jun 11, 2021 7:35am Jun 11, 2021 7:35am
Hutch a rare example of a signal that doesn't meet the criteria?
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  • #9,564
  • Jun 11, 2021 12:09pm Jun 11, 2021 12:09pm
4 trades in the last few days: 3 winners, today shorted the rally, reversed right away, recovered the small loss plus a little, so I consider that "campaign" a BE.
Can´t complain, thanks Hutch!
  • #9,565
  • Jun 11, 2021 2:47pm Jun 11, 2021 2:47pm
Quoting silversurfer
Hutch a rare example of a signal that doesn't meet the criteria? {image}
For sure. First the FxBay MACD is way too positive and second the brick after the brick with the signal is not the same color. I think that the arrow disappeared after the completion of the next aqua brick. Please let us know.
  • #9,566
  • Jun 11, 2021 4:19pm Jun 11, 2021 4:19pm
WTI went up 73¢ today with an average ATR that mainly produced 2 break even trades and 4 winning trades if the last arrow signal is included.
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  • #9,567
  • Jun 11, 2021 4:34pm Jun 11, 2021 4:34pm
Yep the arrow went away. Am very happy that I stumbled across your strategy and very happy that you share it for free, quite amazing really given the number of less desirable types out there who'll scam you at a blink of an eye.
Only traded this since Tuesday and made 5% on my account with virtually no drawdown, have been focusing on WTI, Nikkei and Dow.
  • #9,568
  • Jun 11, 2021 4:53pm Jun 11, 2021 4:53pm
Quoting silversurfer
Yep the arrow went away. Am very happy that I stumbled across your strategy and very happy that you share it for free, quite amazing really given the number of less desirable types out there who'll scam you at a blink of an eye. Only traded this since Tuesday and made 5% on my account with virtually no drawdown, have been focusing on WTI, Nikkei and Dow.
The goal of FF is traders helping traders and I'm happy to be part of that group. Unfortunately you are right and there are a few bad apples in this basket. I never traded the Nikkei but it looks interesting. The hardest part of any Renko strategy is to find the right brick size. Trading the Dow with brick size of 20 can be quite nice but you need to be patient. As you can see on the charts OANDA just reduced the tick value of the Dow from $100 to $1 so more people can trade it.
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  • #9,569
  • Jun 12, 2021 2:00pm Jun 12, 2021 2:00pm
To me, the hardest part of this system is the repaint, otherwise, there would be hardly any hurdles to making tons of
I use all my other tools to filter bad trades as much as possible.
Basically, Renko and the arrow signal simplify things a lot.
Practice and more practice...consistent profits are there for the grab.
Happy weekend to all..
  • #9,570
  • Jun 13, 2021 6:13pm Jun 13, 2021 6:13pm
Quoting Mark Douglas " technical price patterns aren't designed to tell us what will happen next, they are designed to help us put the odds of success in our favour over a series of trades". Which is what this system should be able to do if you use it as Hutch does.
  • #9,571
  • Jun 13, 2021 9:36pm Jun 13, 2021 9:36pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} The goal of FF is traders helping traders and I'm happy to be part of that group. Unfortunately you are right and there are a few bad apples in this basket. I never traded the Nikkei but it looks interesting. The hardest part of any Renko strategy is to find the right brick size. Trading the Dow with brick size of 20 can be quite nice but you need to be patient. As you can see on the charts OANDA just reduced the tick value of the Dow from $100 to $1 so more people can trade it. {image} {image}
Hi Hutch,

Just wondering about entry criteria, I actually went through your strategy in the indicator folder (Fx Bay Strategy STG).
My understanding is this, please let me know if it's correct.

1. There is an arrow and the next brick is the same color as the brick where the
signal was given.
2. The FxBay MACD line must be crossed in the right direction of the brick after the signal.

In case the next brick is not the same color as the brick where the signal
occurred then the signal is not valid.

My question is how to gauge the entry exactly;

that is the entering on the second brick after the signal occurred given above 2 criteria are met?

or

After the second brick finishes its formation and the above criteria are met?


Bit confused in this regard!


Also curious if the strategy is applicable in the crypto market (BTC/ETH). Seems to make sense as the crypto market has high volatility like WTI. Any opinion in this regard?
  • #9,572
  • Jun 14, 2021 4:12am Jun 14, 2021 4:12am
Seems to be no stopping of the bull run, till at least the weekly 77.054
  • #9,573
  • Jun 14, 2021 9:28am Jun 14, 2021 9:28am
Busy week hasn't gotten started yet. PPI/Retail sales tomorrow, EIA inventory and FOMC on Wednesday. I expect some significant volatility across asset classes. The big mover will be FOMC and the focus for oil traders should be on the change in projections for inflation, growth, and if the rate hike will get moved up. There could be some upside risk to an already strong rally, although there seems to be some strong resistance at around the $73 handle. CME CL on a weekly:
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #9,574
  • Edited 3:49pm Jun 14, 2021 2:58pm | Edited 3:49pm
Quoting civilpes2001
{quote} Hi Hutch, Just wondering about entry criteria, I actually went through your strategy in the indicator folder (Fx Bay Strategy STG). My understanding is this, please let me know if it's correct. 1. There is an arrow and the next brick is the same color as the brick where the signal was given. 2. The FxBay MACD line must be crossed in the right direction of the brick after the signal. In case the next brick is not the same color as the brick where the signal occurred then the signal is not valid. My question is how to gauge the entry exactly;...
I prefer to enter when the brick is starting to form so around half way. Crypto is good but usually too fast. You can try a chart of 15-25 bricks and you will see it's too fast. Better is to use brick size 50. Please note that my broker shows BTC but I can't trade it because I live in the EU.

Edit: I forgot to mention that the FxBay MACD is way more important than the arrow. If the FxBay MACD is pointing in the same direction as the arrow it's quite safe to enter into a trade immediately upon the opening of the brick immediately after the brick with the arrow.
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  • #9,575
  • Jun 14, 2021 4:25pm Jun 14, 2021 4:25pm
WTI went up 37¢ today with a low ATR that produced 3 winning trades. The biggest danger of the day were the first 2 red bricks with the second brick barely touching the zero line of the FxBay MACD. You can see better with the picture showing the up wicks on these 2 bricks.
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  • #9,576
  • Jun 15, 2021 4:14pm Jun 15, 2021 4:14pm
WTI went up $1.27¢ today with an average ATR that produced 2 winning trades but quite early in the session.
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  • #9,577
  • Jun 15, 2021 5:59pm Jun 15, 2021 5:59pm
Is demand for crude oil growing, or is supply contracting?

Stocks of crude oil in the United States plunged by 8.537 million barrels in the week ended June 11th of 2021, after a 2.108 million drop in the previous week, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed. It was the biggest draw since the week ended on September 11th, 2020. source: American Petroleum Institute (API)

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  • #9,578
  • Jun 16, 2021 6:04am Jun 16, 2021 6:04am
Quoting cuchuflito
Seems to be no stopping of the bull run, till at least the weekly 77.054
Yeah, but still a v strong market. 72.25 last time I checked, but all bulls have their Achilles heel.
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #9,579
  • Jun 16, 2021 8:35am Jun 16, 2021 8:35am
Last week, the EIA inventory report showed a larger than expected draw in crude inventories. But it sold off because distillates and gasoline inventories surprised the market with very large builds. Remember crude, heating oil, and gasoline will take the same direction so you can't only focus in on the crude inventory number.
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In about an hour we'll see this week's EIA data. We still haven't seen that test of the important $73 level. I'd be surprised if this data triggered that move, we'd have to see a pretty big draw in crude and at least smaller than expected builds in the other two. I don't expect the volatility to be muted ahead of FOMC but it's possible.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #9,580
  • Jun 16, 2021 9:37am Jun 16, 2021 9:37am
EIA data is definitely positive for WTI. Very surprised at how accurately API predicted this EIA data. I've learned it's usually not a good reliable leading indicator. This week it was pretty close.

API: https://www.energyexch.com/news/1088239-api-crude-8537m-cushing-1526m-gasoline-2852m-distillate
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EIA:
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