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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #1,141
  • Jun 11, 2021 9:49am Jun 11, 2021 9:49am
Quoting ryuryu
I was waiting for, and finally that thread rolled down to posting traditional historical charts with random lines, boxes and arrows, showing great entries. Don't know why and what for RickM still here. It is very funny to compare approaches. First one is pure math and logic (vol, delta, calculations), second is meaningless bullshit (fibo, lines, higher tfs). And hey, why RickM is showing real trades, but you all wizards of trading showing only "it was great entry in the past" stuff? Fibo paper traders talking about mind sets yeah ...
you should have posted some charts along with the post.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,142
  • Jun 11, 2021 9:55am Jun 11, 2021 9:55am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Bilal Here was that AUDUSD trade tonight, nothing special. I attempt to trade when the Bids & Asks flip - about 30+ trades a session if the market allows it. This trade would be worth about 0.06% rise in equity with my current daily goal set at 0.50% rise in equity per day. So I need around 10 nice small wins and the task of finding these trades doesn't make the market seem so brutal. My opinion is the day is only good if the maximum draw down is less than the total percentage rise in daily equity. Today I only achieved 0.41% rise in...
thanks for sharing this should be special trade, seems someone pushed audusd from the mountain
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,143
  • Edited 10:20am Jun 11, 2021 10:01am | Edited 10:20am
i was short gbpusd, and gold earlier, fib has some hidden magic or somthing to do with elliot waves i dont know really.

price has an imbalance which it didnt fill and rebounce from the 38.2 fib level

BE Hit
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,144
  • Jun 11, 2021 10:04am Jun 11, 2021 10:04am
New highs have failed and the appearance of bearish trend bars, which are all entries for many, forecasted the current downtrend. The break of support with a trend bar again is an entry and the retest with trend bar is an entry. Futures day traders constantly anticipate the trend of the day and look for nearly every opportunity to hop on. If trending doesn't appear then of course they will have been trading the tops and bottoms of the ranges many using trend bars for entries. Of course one can see that day trading requires undivided attention and willingness to take profit quickly and discipline to take stops usually one tick below/above entries.
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Update on live UJ trade (not historical for the winers who with sticks up their rearends about learning from historical charts and yet not posting their own, definition of hypocrite by the way).
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New minor high so hopefully this forecasts continued move to the upside and eventual target.
  • #1,145
  • Jun 11, 2021 10:14am Jun 11, 2021 10:14am
I have posted contemporaneous trades on my journal. The following chart is typical of my trades. It contains lines and fibs and other TA. I hope this can be used to dispel the notion that TA is bullshit. This is my GA trading today, and I would be happy to post the G$, A$, and $CAD charts if it would help prove that TA is pretty useful.
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  • #1,146
  • Jun 11, 2021 10:20am Jun 11, 2021 10:20am
If you are looking at charts right now, you see another surge entering the market on the G$, A$, GA, and $CAD. I am exiting all trades now, on this surge and ahead of the weekend! Trade well everyone!
  • #1,147
  • Jun 11, 2021 10:20am Jun 11, 2021 10:20am
Just pay attention how GU drops to 1.40548 and will rise to 1.43
  • #1,148
  • Jun 11, 2021 10:25am Jun 11, 2021 10:25am
Quoting Winston Reed
New highs have failed and the appearance of bearish trend bars, which are all entries for many, forecasted the current downtrend. The break of support with a trend bar again is an entry and the retest with trend bar is an entry. Futures day traders constantly anticipate the trend of the day and look for nearly every opportunity to hop on. If trending doesn't appear then of course they will have been trading the tops and bottoms of the ranges many using trend bars for entries. Of course one can see that day trading requires undivided attention and...
If you care to share, what is your $J target? I have several above you now, one being pretty close, but I won't mention them now because I don't want to influence you in any way right now.
  • #1,149
  • Jun 11, 2021 10:32am Jun 11, 2021 10:32am
/MES (mini S&P) is a nice futures contract for beginning futures traders. Each 0.25 tick is worth $1.25 compared to /ES which is $12.50/tick. I use think or swim which requires a minimum deposit of $1500. To trade /MES you must have a minimum of $1210 and with/ES you must have a minimum of $12,100. Don't be fooled by mini contracts, you can get in to trouble in a hurry.

I'm not trading futures right now so I want to be clear about that. So with that said I'm going to give my 2 cents on day trading the ES (mini or full contract). First I only trade after the NY open. Trend days are what many look for and while waiting for the trend to appear day traders will short the tops and buy bottoms of ranges. At some point when the trend appears if they were long and an uptrend appears then they will relentlessly buy the dips and move stops up until they get taken out. The reverse is true for once a down trend appears.

Trend bars are signals and buying or selling them with buy or sell stops 1 tick above or below is one way to get in. Stops often are just 1 tick below or above entries and successful day traders will take the stop every time and move on.

Today one can see the appearance of the down trend and for many this would be enough for the day and have been a great Friday and time to celebrate.
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  • #1,150
  • Jun 11, 2021 10:37am Jun 11, 2021 10:37am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} If you care to share, what is your $J target? I have several above you now, one being pretty close, but I won't mention them now because I don't want to influence you in any way right now.
GEfx you're using different symbol terminology than I use. I have been referring to /ES S&P500 and /MES mini S&P500.

When day trading targets are actually not determined in the traditional sense. I alluded in the above post to how taking profit is often achieved. And that is by moving up fairly tight stops as the market keeps moving in one's direction. When the stop gets hit you hit target. The DOM is what I use in this case because you can move stops quickly and easily. That's why it's pretty difficult to post trades before they happen because there isn't time. One would need a live cast to do this.
  • #1,151
  • Edited 10:56am Jun 11, 2021 10:46am | Edited 10:56am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} you should have posted some charts along with the post.
What is the purpose of that? I know how I trade. I know how RickM trades. And I know that 99.9% of others are liars and paper traders. Real trader doesn't need any confirmation. Proof anything for paper fibo randon lines trading wizards... waste of time.

But if you wish. Here is example of "trading the trend" strategy. Remember that I'm not trading manually and all the trades are on M1. I have several strategies and I love most to trade like RickM does. Fast trades mostly against the trend.

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But let's examine the chart. Remember I'm not using magic and luck. So everything is math.
So why this trade was taken?

It was long trade:
1. Because the Swap rate was bigger for longs.
2. 3 EMA (50, 100, 200) was in long order.
3. EMA 50 cross up Asian Session High.
4. It was trading hours range (London open -> NY +3).
5. Few more things were confirmed like candle size, atr, speed, distance from daily open and so on.

Why the exit was there?

1. The price reach first xZone which is 0.25% of ADR.
2. The trailing stop was activated

And yes, there were no fibo, random horizontal lines, predictions
4h timeframes, daily, weekly, sup/res...

Now let's check RickM's approach. USDCHF today:

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Why this trade was taken?

1. It was reverse candle
2. It was Stoch
3. Delta was high
4. Candle size was > 0.1 of ADR
5. Candle was in xZone 1-2 range

Why exit was there? It must be on the blue dashed line which is previous day high. But it was triggered later. Because of trailing stop.
Observer effect
  • #1,152
  • Jun 11, 2021 10:51am Jun 11, 2021 10:51am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} And that is by moving up fairly tight stops as the market keeps moving in one's direction. When the stop gets hit you hit target. The DOM is what I use in this case because you can move stops quickly and easily. That's why it's pretty difficult to post trades before they happen because there isn't time. One would need a live cast to do this.
Okay thanks! I agree that posting charts before the trade is difficult. I have done this on my journal, but it takes up valuable time and takes focus off the charts. I try to be as rea-time as possible when posting there. But thanks for the note on your idea of targets. I understand what you are doing. Thanks and good trading!
  • #1,153
  • Jun 11, 2021 11:21am Jun 11, 2021 11:21am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} What is the purpose of that? I know how I trade. I know how RickM trades. And I know that 99.9% of others are liars and paper traders. Real trader doesn't need any confirmation. Proof anything for paper fibo randon lines trading wizards... waste of time. But if you wish. Here is example of "trading the trend" strategy. Remember that I'm not trading manually and all the trades are on M1. I have several strategies and I love most to trade like RickM does. Fast trades mostly against the trend. {image} But let's examine the chart. Remember I'm...
Great to see MAs and TMA after long time i knew alot of people are still using them in their trading model with great discipline and are successful.
thanks for sharing.
stay blessed
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,154
  • Jun 11, 2021 11:45am Jun 11, 2021 11:45am
Quoting GEfx
I have posted contemporaneous trades on my journal. The following chart is typical of my trades. It contains lines and fibs and other TA. I hope this can be used to dispel the notion that TA is bullshit. This is my GA trading today, and I would be happy to post the G$, A$, and $CAD charts if it would help prove that TA is pretty useful. {image}

I am very glad and i can see how well you use it, but is it you could do it without it ?
I mean all your experience and other analytics what your group is doing.

This is thoughts which comes mind and not anykind of negative tone.

I just generally thinking its like a russian roulette gun where at least five slots are loaded. For persons who don't know all things and other kind of skills what you got.

I am not saying its tottally useless, because i sometimes see how often some kind of values from TA can be usefull and repeat day after day.
and also while creating strategies, degree of freedom come to play important role. I have been long time thinking what would be best way put timeserries,
range,renko,tick,volume etc... they all are artificials. I mean Day highs,lows, daily range is not same kind way out of phase when we feed it inside machine.
and try to get usefull information for output.

Just ignore this, its just couple beans jump inside of over heated kettle after long week.
  • #1,155
  • Jun 11, 2021 11:59am Jun 11, 2021 11:59am
Quoting Winston Reed
/MES (mini S&P) is a nice futures contract for beginning futures traders. Each 0.25 tick is worth $1.25 compared to /ES which is $12.50/tick. I use think or swim which requires a minimum deposit of $1500. To trade /MES you must have a minimum of $1210 and with/ES you must have a minimum of $12,100. Don't be fooled by mini contracts, you can get in to trouble in a hurry. I'm not trading futures right now so I want to be clear about that. So with that said I'm going to give my 2 cents on day trading the ES (mini or full contract). First I only trade...
A final chart for today's /MES

There was an attempt at a new uptrend but it failed. Despite that many bought bullish trend bars into resistance hoping to front run a breakout to the upside it failed with the appearance of bearish trend bars for another leg down emphasizing the advantage of the down trend that developed shortly after NY open.
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  • #1,156
  • Jun 11, 2021 5:56pm Jun 11, 2021 5:56pm
Quoting kk100
{quote} I am very glad and i can see how well you use it, but is it you could do it without it ? I mean all your experience and other analytics what your group is doing. This is thoughts which comes mind and not anykind of negative tone. I just generally thinking its like a russian roulette gun where at least five slots are loaded. For persons who don't know all things and other kind of skills what you got. I am not saying its tottally useless, because i sometimes see how often some kind of values from TA can be usefull and repeat day after day....
I think I understand your point. Maybe I can provide some context to my use of TA. The charts I post here provide a view of trades and trade analysis. But before I get to a trade, there are 7 charts that I use in a cascading analysis starting with market structure as seen on 4H charts, then an analysis of 1H chart using a series of technical indicators (this to select which of the 12 pairs I follow to focus on that day, trying to narrow it down to 2 to 5 pairs), then a look back to structure for targets, then on to a 10M chart that contains indicators from the 1H and 4H charts, which is where I analyze trade setups that fit the overall analysis, and then on to actual trades. I've been doing this for about 15 years, using the same charts, so I can work through this process quickly. The TA I use fits the situation I'm trading ( eg, trending, reversing, bracketing, whatever) as seen on the 4H structure and confirmed on the 1H technicals, with frequent look backs to some very reliable indicators.The charts, plus a trade assist software tool, cost me about $350/mo.

So, TA is, or should be, situational. There is not a one-size-fits-all TA. It would be unwise, for example, to use fibs in a reversal or a bracketing situation. And, it's important to understand what the TA tool you are using is trying to measure. The TA tools in my toolkit are used to measure specific behaviors of the market. And as long as those market behaviors are present, I aggressively pursue PA.

Hope that helps.
  • #1,157
  • Jun 11, 2021 9:17pm Jun 11, 2021 9:17pm
Here is a stress test for people who have doubts about certain aspects of their thinking and understanding .......

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This is me trying to be helpful so if anyone wants to throw trash talk, then so be it.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,158
  • Jun 11, 2021 9:35pm Jun 11, 2021 9:35pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
Here is a stress test for people who have doubts about certain aspects of their thinking and understanding ....... {image} This is me trying to be helpful so if anyone wants to throw trash talk, then so be it. Peter
I am not laughing now Peter, thanks for posting a chart.

Could you please explain your thinking otherwise it’s a wasted chart

Cheers Rickyboy
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,159
  • Jun 11, 2021 9:57pm Jun 11, 2021 9:57pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} I am not laughing now Peter, thanks for posting a chart. Could you please explain your thinking otherwise it’s a wasted chart Cheers Rickyboy
We have movement.
Waiting in anticipation!
  • #1,160
  • Jun 11, 2021 10:44pm Jun 11, 2021 10:44pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
Here is a stress test for people who have doubts about certain aspects of their thinking and understanding ....... {image} This is me trying to be helpful so if anyone wants to throw trash talk, then so be it. Peter
Hi Peter

Glad i can now understand more with chart please dont be reluctant with words and marking candles showing price action as you see why buy when to exit.

A keen learner below posting my yesterday entries for persuasion i have entered from order block and targeted the imbalance gaps on both.

Regards
bilal
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"Exchange of hands"
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