Cable Supply & Demand Intraday

Entered my first short at 1.4126. Classic short accumulation on 5m. 12 pips SL and TP open for now. Expect 1.40 this wk.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PUUTIPdU/

Edit- caught out by a massive spike on the rate hike announcement by MPC, -12. Unfortunately didn't set my stop to BE as quickly as I normally do

Could not have predicted that one - knew 1.41 was a strong zone but was a bit of a bolt out of the blue. We had GBP weakening for days and USD looking bullish so I assumed and expected my way into a short trade. We also had Gilt yields touch into a strong H4 demand. I covered my loss and took a couple of 10 pip scalps so at least ended the day with small profit

Lesson- scan news more thoroughly and don't trade against buy zones. I welcome days like this as learning opportunities and a chance to refine rules and procedures. I do not double down on mistakes and know when to stay out so no damage- however, in months gone by I know I would be frantically trying to fade this spike and make a bad situation worse. I know now how to cool off and come back with a level head and wait for an opportunity. Looking back it was a classic MM trap- break the equal lows to trap sellers then pump up- very obvious with hindsight and i know for next time

I see the 1.4155-4172 as the new buying zone tomorrow

Actually been a very decent day already, around 50 pips up just scalping the range. Started first thing by opening short as we broke a TL and were drifting towards the pivot pre LO. Defined it pretty early on expecting the 1h zone below to hold with confluence on the pivot. Then waited for the first kick up from 14175, bought the retrace twice. Then when the wedge/divergence formed started shorting. Then defined the 5m SD range and scalped within it. Very straightforward morning. Some people look at this and think it's just noise, 10 pip range what's the point but I tend to make good profits in these conditions

https://www.tradingview.com/x/c0HeTgqi/

Edit, gave a little back trying to buy here, saw it as a flag forming on a demand zone, but DXY started flying and pushed through a supply area.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OnZvfyJW/

Caught a really nice 50 pip move on cable. Noticed the imbalance had been fixed then looked out for the reversal pattern. Formed a W then went in on the channel retest/fib retrace of last leg

I like the 5m reversal pattern it formed. This is maybe the only kind of trade I should take. Find a level where something is expected to happen. Wait for a PA signature to confirm. Get in on the pullback.

The 12 pips I lost before this I had one half of the equation. A level where I expected something. But nothing in PA to confirm just blind hope.

Shorted this M retrace early on, looking to break the last low and get 20-30 pips

Just closed for around 20, I think it will go further but bank hol best just to book profit

https://www.tradingview.com/x/IFYUM5qP/

Ended up taking a buy over this demand re-test, but the market crawled to a halt, took out me BE stop, and didn't feel comfortable re-entering but would have been fine. It was around the pivot/major TL too so need to be wary sometimes

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OA0ihgXb/

Took another scalp on M5 demand level when it broke below the TL and showed some bullish reaction. Possible false break/liquidity area

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ilp3rrxD/

Shorting 1.4232, 12 pips SL

Mentioned before I thought we might clear the top of the range before going to the bottom and below it for NFP

Will look for below 1.41

MMs creating liquidity on both sides of the range then taking it

DXY back on multi year support/major TL retest/demand area

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4pcklNE3/

Closed 50 pips as yesterday's imbalance filled. Not good at holding trades but a healthy profit for the day

Caught some pips during LO then this at NYO, posted on cable update :

Gilt yields weakening was the first clue then the fake TL break pre NYO followed by a sudden burst down creating a supply zone, shorted the retrace and rode to break into the liquidity below the daily low

We have a bearish M pattern playing out now, short entry coincides with h1 supply

Today was a bit of a damp squib. Two trades, one ten pip gain and one loss.

Unfortunately I overslept so missed an easy buy which could have had me finished for the day and enjoying the sun

Price action wise, price was climbing up from demand inside a wedge structure, crescendo around 10am, I shorted on the retrace to the m5 supply created but closed early, reasoning I'd have a better opportunity later and it was best just to book a quick profit. Then I mistakenly believed a quick pump up above the highs was imminent to sweep the last highs based on the PA. However it quickly dumped and broke the wedge. My error was to trade into active supply but I thought the PA was indicating a move up. Then, price didn't fully retrace to the wedge in order to re-short, only 50pc of the down impulse so I missed out.

I gotta ask myself why I didn't hold the original short too, given it was the optimal entry with no drawdown, H1 supply/m5 supply- a textbook entry in my book. Execution flaw/emotions. Some second guessing of where I expected price rather than just simply following rules. To me it's very important to journal and reflect on every error to determine if there is a pattern to any avoidable mistakes.

Nevermind! Tomorrow is a new day

https://www.tradingview.com/x/SDtTuFyd/

Big area for improvement in June- plan the exit of the trade before entry with multiple TPs, before emotions are involved. Too often do I just pick a decent entry then wing it once I've committed.

Decent short overnight off of an m30 supply, then caught out shorting again on supply/TL, the news spike caught me-broke my rules by trading around news

Short pos

Going over my chart for the day and realised I missed this H4 demand zone. Schoolboy error. The move down could have been seen as a stop run on this low and signal to go long. Too many mistakes in the past two days. A warning to myself to be focused on all TFs of the chart and not get distracted constantly.

From your analysis and the present PA, is it safe to short cable now?

I don't like opening trades at this time because I always find whatever seems apparent now usually changes during Asia. Add to that you can't react whilst sleeping, the spreads leap up at 10pm, and we're likely to have little movement until Tokyo. Sells probably better than buys though as we're at the top of the range. I'd rather see what the situation is pre-London and make a decision then, patience is best, I can't rule out price running up to 1.42 overnight so can't recommend selling (not that I'd recommend any trade ideas anyway, best to follow your own plan always). I did have a short running from here but closed it early just for this reason

On the short side this morning

Took off 80pc at pivot as its a high confluence level

Ended up closing all as it looked like a potential reversal. But I can't see any good reason to reverse here beyond just a scalp/profit taking. I think it may hit the original target

Around 35 pips/7xR (very tight SL)

It ended up hitting my original target, I overthought it a bit and didnt let it run. Focus next week is to plan out TPs with clear rules and scaling