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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #1,121
  • Edited 12:40am Jun 11, 2021 12:25am | Edited 12:40am
BE hit
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,122
  • Jun 11, 2021 12:29am Jun 11, 2021 12:29am
people are successful even with RSI, Stochastic, volumes, TMA but if one has found a perfect way then i would say no need to consider risk management but nothing is perfect its like playing chess with a computer it has so many moves to do and many time our way works too .

look for the method that suits you only few will say my success rate is 90-99% and they are lying.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,123
  • Jun 11, 2021 1:23am Jun 11, 2021 1:23am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi RickM did i understand you correct, we should buy once imbalance happened, upon low volume restest of imbalance. {image}
That sounds like Wyckoff VSA. The testing of supply with low volume (activity) shows no interest of taking prices down.
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  • #1,124
  • Jun 11, 2021 1:33am Jun 11, 2021 1:33am
Quoting bilal1947
people are successful even with RSI, Stochastic, volumes, TMA but if one has found a perfect way then i would say no need to consider risk management but nothing is perfect its like playing chess with a computer it has so many moves to do and many time our way works too . look for the method that suits you only few will say my success rate is 90-99% and they are lying.
My success rate for MSFT buy the dips trading is 95% so far. Where I am lying?

Quoting gepards
{quote} 100% right. This is why I trade MSFT stock. Very very trendy in long term. And my EA optimization/backtests of 15 years shows "buy the dip" works perfectly with MSFT. {image} Here in myfxbook you can see my live results so far with MSFT: profit 33% in 3 months. Longest trade 21 days. You can diversify risks by various trendy blue-chip companies' stocks to trade (amazon, crm, google, fb and other...) If the main issue of trading is to identify trends (start, end)...
I backtested/optimized 15 years history and found the best setup for dips entries/exits. So 15 years of history is not enough? Ok I am trading now >3 months with this method. You might say - let's see how it will after 3 years. Does it mean those who cant show 3 years of live trading history all are layers here?
  • #1,125
  • Jun 11, 2021 1:38am Jun 11, 2021 1:38am
RickM

I usually don't do this before london open.
Here is both direction at europe morning. Check your messages.

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  • #1,126
  • Jun 11, 2021 1:45am Jun 11, 2021 1:45am
Quoting gepards
{quote} My success rate for MSFT buy the dips trading is 95% so far. Where I am lying? {quote} I backtested/optimized 15 years history and found the best setup for dips entries/exits. So 15 years of history is not enough? Ok I am trading now >3 months with this method. You might say - let's see how it will after 3 years. Does it mean those who cant show 3 years of live trading history all are layers here?
you can easily overlook my post by assuming 89% success rate

since you are 90% i wish you good luck, stay blessed.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,127
  • Jun 11, 2021 2:00am Jun 11, 2021 2:00am
Quoting gepards
{quote} My success rate for MSFT buy the dips trading is 95% so far. Where I am lying? {quote} I backtested/optimized 15 years history and found the best setup for dips entries/exits. So 15 years of history is not enough? Ok I am trading now >3 months with this method. You might say - let's see how it will after 3 years. Does it mean those who cant show 3 years of live trading history all are layers here?
"Past performance does not guarantee the future" something similar can be found under any investment proposal.

15 years is past. Your 3 months is past. Any trade did by any trader no matter what strategy used is past. And it does not guarantee next month/year any success.

Then how Renesanses Technology did it 30+ years...?

Think answer is diversification. You have to have at least 100 runing horses to bet on. You should be similar like banks who "allways" (If no corruption) win with loans portfolious because of diversification... They calculated probabilities. Some horses lose some win. Thats how insurance companies operate.

Trading the same. Most people operating 1 strategy are like 1 runing horse. Thats it.
  • #1,128
  • Jun 11, 2021 3:05am Jun 11, 2021 3:05am
Quoting PeterCaleb
but when it's actually put to the test
That's the trouble Peter, you speak of tests, but when asked to demonstrate this skill of yours, you like to dance. Some would say, all hat, no cattle. Of course, you will respond that you do not care. In fact, you will care so little that you will feel compelled to attract attention by a large font essay to show just how little you care.

This is rather interesting behavior. Did the changing industry cost you your career Peter? Many pit traders could not adapt and are now grumpy old men talking about the good old days. You should let this go, it is not healthy.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,129
  • Jun 11, 2021 3:28am Jun 11, 2021 3:28am
You have a vivid imagination. But no, it's very simple - I'm not a circus clown.

So because I'm not like you, you think I'm the dumbass.

Mmmmm. Interesting.
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,130
  • Jun 11, 2021 3:52am Jun 11, 2021 3:52am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi RickM did i understand you correct, we should buy once imbalance happened, upon low volume restest of imbalance. {image}
Hi Bilal

I am looking far more closely that candle patterns.
I am looking at market executions in real time looking to see whether the big players are consuming buy limit orders forcing the market bearish, or consuming Sell limit orders forcing the market bearish.

Here is a chart just before your arrow on M1.
I actually took some of this last night due when all I had to do was piggyback along with the big players.
It was a Sell till I saw signs of Ask Imbalance creating a bullish move.

I can show you a actual trade I took a hour ago on AUDUSD if you like when I when short on another Bid Imbalance near London Open.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,131
  • Jun 11, 2021 4:17am Jun 11, 2021 4:17am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Bilal I am looking far more closely that candle patterns. I am looking at market executions in real time looking to see whether the big players are consuming buy limit orders forcing the market bearish, or consuming Sell limit orders forcing the market bearish. Here is a chart just before your arrow on M1. I actually took some of this last night due when all I had to do was piggyback along with the big players. It was a Sell till I saw signs of Ask Imbalance creating a bullish move. I can show you a actual trade I took a hour ago on AUDUSD...
Thanks for sharing, sure that will be good
i marked posted audusd with 1H and 5min Imbalance on audusd, do you correlate it to dollar index or gold?
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,132
  • Jun 11, 2021 4:45am Jun 11, 2021 4:45am
Quoting Pumi
{quote} That sounds like Wyckoff VSA. The testing of supply with low volume (activity) shows no interest of taking prices down. {image}
Have a look why price is obeying the fibs it amazing:
Before:
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After: ( have adjusted the start from the first leg)
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,133
  • Jun 11, 2021 7:38am Jun 11, 2021 7:38am
Quoting RickM
{quote} I can show you a actual trade I took a hour ago on AUDUSD if you like when I when short on another Bid Imbalance near London Open. }
I sold the A$ a few hours later than you (and bought the GA just ahead of selling the A$). As before you were in ahead of me! Well done!
  • #1,134
  • Jun 11, 2021 8:43am Jun 11, 2021 8:43am
In years past I was an active participant in Redwords thread "Price is Everything". One of the things I enjoyed most about was the rule "charts not chat". Of course this was to reduce not only chat but the so called "all talk, no walk" BS that usually benefits no one. So I for the most part live by the "charts not chat" rule.

Having said that here's my /MES 777 tick chart. As I've said earlier I trade trends and do so in futures trading also. I don't generally trade NYopen as often it can be violent but one can see support here at the open and a long opportunity presented and for many this would have been the first "day-trade" of the day and it would have been profitable. Especially on /ES where a 0.25 tick = $12.50.

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  • #1,135
  • Jun 11, 2021 8:49am Jun 11, 2021 8:49am
F/U on my UJ trade that I've been in pretty much the whole week. I thought it was goin to take me out yesterday but it reversed and it is again trying hopefully for a HH where my target lies. Of course this again is pure trend trading on a H1 time frame. H1 is fairly stress free and I pretty much set and forget trades until they either reach target or don't. Occasionally I'll move stops and try to take advantage of additional profit.

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  • #1,136
  • Jun 11, 2021 9:05am Jun 11, 2021 9:05am
Quoting Winston Reed
In years past I was an active participant in Redwords thread "Price is Everything". One of the things I enjoyed most about was the rule "charts not chat". Of course this was to reduce not only chat but the so called "all talk, no walk" BS that usually benefits no one. So I for the most part live by the "charts not chat" rule. Having said that here's my /MES 777 tick chart. As I've said earlier I trade trends and do so in futures trading also. I don't generally trade NYopen as often it can be violent but one can see support here at the open and a...
F/U. Price tested support. Buying the trend bar with a buy stop 1 tick above it with idea that price will at least hit the high since NY open and perhaps exceed.
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  • #1,137
  • Jun 11, 2021 9:08am Jun 11, 2021 9:08am
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  • #1,138
  • Jun 11, 2021 9:20am Jun 11, 2021 9:20am
Quoting Winston Reed
F/U on my UJ trade that I've been in pretty much the whole week. I thought it was goin to take me out yesterday but it reversed and it is again trying hopefully for a HH where my target lies. Of course this again is pure trend trading on a H1 time frame. H1 is fairly stress free and I pretty much set and forget trades until they either reach target or don't. Occasionally I'll move stops and try to take advantage of additional profit. {image}
Well done! A few posts ago, RickM commented on being aggressively patient. I tend to be patiently aggressive, maybe just stubborn sometime, and hold to targets. Glad your $J came around today. I looked at the $J earlier, but passed on it going north. I took early trades in the A$ and GA, them the $CAD, and finally got into the G$. All are at targets and I'm getting hungry...might be time to call it a day and head for breakfast.

Really like the last few pages here, where the talk has been on trading. Hope everyone got some pips today!
  • #1,139
  • Jun 11, 2021 9:39am Jun 11, 2021 9:39am
I was waiting for, and finally that thread rolled down to posting traditional historical charts with random lines, boxes and arrows, showing great entries. Don't know why and what for RickM still here. It is very funny to compare approaches. First one is pure math and logic (vol, delta, calculations), second is meaningless bullshit (fibo, lines, higher tfs).

And hey, why RickM is showing real trades, but you all wizards of trading showing only "it was great entry in the past" stuff? Fibo paper traders talking about mind sets yeah
Observer effect
  • #1,140
  • Jun 11, 2021 9:42am Jun 11, 2021 9:42am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Have a look why price is obeying the fibs it amazing: Before: {image} After: ( have adjusted the start from the first leg) {image}
Hi Bilal

Here was that AUDUSD trade tonight, nothing special.

I attempt to trade when the Bids & Asks flip - about 30+ trades a session if the market allows it.
This trade would be worth about 0.06% rise in equity with my current daily goal set at 0.50% rise in equity per day.
So I need around 10 nice small wins and the task of finding these trades doesn't make the market seem so brutal.

My opinion is the day is only good if the maximum draw down is less than the total percentage rise in daily equity.
Today I only achieved 0.41% rise in equity but the maximum draw down was only 0.09%.

Thats the skill of the trader, never trade in hope a large draw down will recover into a nice win.

If the trade is wrong, get out before the market notices you were trading.

Cheers
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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