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  • #1,381
  • Nov 8, 2006 10:42pm Nov 8, 2006 10:42pm
I won't be scalping when mine goes, I plan on holding this impending downside for a few weeks. It might go 300 pips. I hope.
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #1,382
  • Nov 8, 2006 11:03pm Nov 8, 2006 11:03pm
My scalp target is 25 pips minimum, anything above that is welcome, so accordingly I trade only the moves where the move is strong enough to trend 30 to 40 pips.

And when I say levels, I am not expecting GU to move anywhere over those levels, like when I say the range is 9047 to 9124, I never expect GU to go ovr 9124, unless crossed.

So that gives me a whole lot of pips along the way.

Like the current trade is stuck on a 2 way channel with 9040 as median, can go up 20 pips or down 20 pips, either way.
  • #1,383
  • Nov 9, 2006 1:44am Nov 9, 2006 1:44am
As expected, we enjoyed a nice overnight short from 9060 to 9035, and now its bounced back to almost 78.2%.

GU has entered a channel mode, with slow upwards move towards 78.2% which if broken could lead us to 9074 level.
  • #1,384
  • Nov 9, 2006 1:52am Nov 9, 2006 1:52am
Why do I have to be correct always GU went right through 78.2% as if programmed to do so.
  • #1,385
  • Nov 9, 2006 2:23am Nov 9, 2006 2:23am
Now since we are in a confirmed channel trade on 1 hour charts, I have a long exit @ 9089 and short entry @ 9090 with tight SL.

9090 also happens to be closest to a fib level and I expect a bounce off here.
  • #1,386
  • Nov 9, 2006 3:01am Nov 9, 2006 3:01am
it will be droping 300 pips but wont take a few weeks to day it moves ATR 100 pips per day. By mid to late next week be ready for ride up to 9400



Quoting dukeofdents
I won't be scalping when mine goes, I plan on holding this impending downside for a few weeks. It might go 300 pips. I hope.
  • #1,387
  • Nov 9, 2006 4:27am Nov 9, 2006 4:27am
Quoting fixme1too
it will be droping 300 pips but wont take a few weeks to day it moves ATR 100 pips per day. By mid to late next week be ready for ride up to 9400

The way we have seen the current price action, 9400 seems possible, because GU refused to budge below 9000 level in 4 full days, which is very surprising at this level.

Even more surprising was the way it rebounded from 8953 that too in Asian session, something unheard of previously and took many hard core traders by total surprise.


Anyways, back to current analysis.

GU rebounded off 9074 level, it now remains to see if 9060 [ 78.2% ] holds or breaks, if it holds then we could be re-testing 9074 again towards 9090 levels.
  • #1,388
  • Nov 9, 2006 4:33am Nov 9, 2006 4:33am
I would think that it may spike up to major resistance at 9115 today on BoE announcement, before coming down sharply due to profit taking.

Do you no think that is likely?
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #1,389
  • Nov 9, 2006 5:37am Nov 9, 2006 5:37am
Quoting Geldmeister
I would think that it may spike up to major resistance at 9115 today on BoE announcement, before coming down sharply due to profit taking.

Do you no think that is likely?
Quite possible, that is the reason why i have a long close @ 9089 and short open @ 9090 as discussed earlier.
  • #1,390
  • Nov 9, 2006 6:16am Nov 9, 2006 6:16am
GU was rejected by 9074 hitting SL @ 9060 in green.

Since we have a rate hike as expected, we can expect weakness in GBP for this month.

The next bit of news which comes in is the USD trade balance and rumours are strife about a worse than expected trade balance.

We could see some interesting price action on GU here, before seeing a final trend develop for the rest of the week.
  • #1,391
  • Nov 9, 2006 6:41am Nov 9, 2006 6:41am
Quoting TheJungleLion
GU was rejected by 9074 hitting SL @ 9060 in green.

Since we have a rate hike as expected, we can expect weakness in GBP for this month.

The next bit of news which comes in is the USD trade balance and rumours are strife about a worse than expected trade balance.

We could see some interesting price action on GU here, before seeing a final trend develop for the rest of the week.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #1,392
  • Nov 9, 2006 6:48am Nov 9, 2006 6:48am
GU was rejected yet again off 50.0% around 9025 ; which specifically prepares it for the trade balance report, and with expectations strife on a weaker $$


Strangely GU is gone totally against the best readings of an overbought market. And has been reacting quite strangely this week.


Under the circumstances only one scenario remains, we seriously need to consider what 9100 would have to say should the trade balance be worse than expected as the rumours go.
  • #1,393
  • Edited 7:14am Nov 9, 2006 7:00am | Edited 7:14am
Quoting FXopportunist
Join us on this topic in the news trading room

1) Trade deficit expected in excess of 70 bio

2)huge Chinese trade surplus which was spurred by a light increase in imports.

Since this will have a negative impact on the dollar, I am expecting a spike here, whether this spike happens or not is to be see, either way I would wait to see a fib level broken before entering a fresh trade.

This effect is more visible on the eur/usd pair instead of GU

25 minutes to go
  • #1,394
  • Nov 9, 2006 7:38am Nov 9, 2006 7:38am
GU enters new trade channel with break of 50.0% around 9020, trend down.

As is clear here, we expect a small bounce off 8953.

At 78.2% we had 2 options, 1) to enter the top channel and trend up or enter the down channel and trend down.

With GBP rate hike and later USD trade balance, it opted to choose the down channel breaking 50.0% fib level.
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  • #1,395
  • Nov 9, 2006 10:49am Nov 9, 2006 10:49am
The Pound has been going crazy today. Just pick a damn direction already!
  • #1,396
  • Nov 9, 2006 10:53am Nov 9, 2006 10:53am
thats what im saying but so far it doesnt look likely one side will win out over the short term i favor a correction...
  • #1,397
  • Nov 9, 2006 11:02am Nov 9, 2006 11:02am
Man I love Volatility. This is great...
  • #1,398
  • Nov 9, 2006 12:49pm Nov 9, 2006 12:49pm
note downtrending channel on cable 15min chart... price is bouncing around within this range with no clear direction...
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  • #1,399
  • Nov 9, 2006 9:07pm Nov 9, 2006 9:07pm
Quoting enoc2g
note downtrending channel on cable 15min chart... price is bouncing around within this range with no clear direction...
keep going up and up .. i should have closed my short
  • #1,400
  • Nov 9, 2006 9:26pm Nov 9, 2006 9:26pm
what are the proabibilties that 1.9100 is a reversal point?
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