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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,441
  • May 7, 2021 10:35am May 7, 2021 10:35am
lol. didnt realize it already broke as i was working on last post.
I read and watch to learn.
  • #1,442
  • May 13, 2021 9:10am May 13, 2021 9:10am
I personally trade using Smart Money concept. i have been learning Elliot waves in the past 4 days and here is my exercise on USDCHF! .. I STILL HAVE STRUGGLE UNDERSATING CORRECTIVE PATTERNS ESPECIALLY FLATS
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCFH PREDICTED.png Size: 60 KB
  • #1,443
  • May 24, 2021 12:55am May 24, 2021 12:55am
EURUSD daily seems back on the bull side
  • #1,444
  • May 25, 2021 2:36pm May 25, 2021 2:36pm
Quoting Merka
EURUSD daily seems back on the bull side
yes merka, the alternate count is on now ....
Remember we had 2 probabilities,
1) this being a B wave and
2) this being the 5th wave. So since this is a 5th wave up to complete the cycle, we can expect around 110 pips more to the bull side at least (i.e 38.2 % expansion.) to about 1.2350.
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  • #1,445
  • May 25, 2021 3:19pm May 25, 2021 3:19pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} yes merka, the alternate count is on now .... Remember we had 2 probabilities, 1) this being a B wave and 2) this being the 5th wave. So since this is a 5th wave up to complete the cycle, we can expect around 110 pips more to the bull side at least (i.e 38.2 % expansion.) to about 1.2350.
I'm wondering if there is a way to come out from dilemma like this in the methodology.
Recently I saw many EW analyses where people were 50/50 split in the 2 groups and no way to understand which side is correct/wrong prior the fact
  • #1,446
  • May 25, 2021 10:54pm May 25, 2021 10:54pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} I'm wondering if there is a way to come out from dilemma like this in the methodology. Recently I saw many EW analyses where people were 50/50 split in the 2 groups and no way to understand which side is correct/wrong prior the fact
Yes this is a problem every retail trader undergoes. The institutional traders can exactly see the sentiment of the retail trading and they move the market the way they want. The only edge we have is the COT report . Please check the COT report of EURO and also the daily chart of euro on a side by side pictures so that you can compare.

Notice that my data is from Feb 2nd this year.
In the % long contract, you will see it started off from 73% and the net positions are at +137,000 which means they are net long for 137,000 contracts (clearly bullish) but in the weeks to follow, they have considerably reduced their position to 62% long and 73739 by march 31st of this year. then there is a consolidation for 2 weeks which is marked grey . after which they started buying. From 20th of Apr to 18th of may which was the last COT report, they have increased their long contract percentage and also their net positions.

Also notice in the Excel sheet, there are a lot of negative figures in the change long from Feb. to mar 31st and the change short has been mostly positive.

With technical analysis, we are trying to predict the future market but probabilities can go either way. Of course we also cannot decipher the COT report also so cleanly as i have mentioned above when it is happening live in the market. So speculation is the best we can do. if there is a clear cut way of going about it, i would have beaten Warren Buffet by now .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu3.png Size: 28 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx EU COT.xlsx   10 KB | 261 downloads
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  • #1,447
  • May 25, 2021 11:56pm May 25, 2021 11:56pm
This is the present chart count that i am looking at . Looking at DXY also this seems to be a 5th wave .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4.png Size: 21 KB
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  • #1,448
  • May 26, 2021 1:39am May 26, 2021 1:39am
Quoting stringfx
This is the present chart count that i am looking at . Looking at DXY also this seems to be a 5th wave . {image}
If this 2 week could be back to bear its possible to make ending diagonal
  • #1,449
  • May 26, 2021 1:55am May 26, 2021 1:55am
Quoting corongumet
{quote} If this 2 week could be back to bear its possible to make ending diagonal
In which time frame?
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  • #1,450
  • May 26, 2021 4:18am May 26, 2021 4:18am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} In which time frame?
H4 check it
  • #1,451
  • Edited 10:31am Jun 4, 2021 12:04am | Edited 10:31am
My take on today's NFP.

although ADP came bullish, i am expecting the US dollar to crash technically. ( i may be wrong and have been a lot before).
It seems like we are in a wave 3 with some 1-2 1-2 waves. if this rally crosses 90.89, then i am wrong for sure. Hopefully it wont.
Most people are short on eur, gbp, gold , nzd , aud etc but all these currency pairs are sitting pretty on their strong support at the moment.
Since the majority of the retail are short, that provides enough liquidity for the banks and Hedge funds to go the opposite way but please don't take this as trading advise, do your own analysis and trade, i am just advising the probability. Notice the divergence as well.
Here are a couple of charts on dxy and eur/usd. COt report also sugegsts a strong move up on eur as they have been increasing their net positions from 66K to 104K over the last 2 months.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurdaily.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy daily.png Size: 24 KB
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  • #1,452
  • Jun 4, 2021 12:31am Jun 4, 2021 12:31am
My Take on Gold

Gold has been on an uptrend from march 1st week 2021. If you check these charts, it could give you some clue as to the next forecast on gold daily.
The waves have made a couple of 1-2 1-2 and then did a 3rd wave and now has declined to 38.2 for the 4th wave . we should be able to see a wave 5 coming up soon and it coincides with the weakness in dollar as well. There is a big divergence and at the moment it is sitting in a huge support from the past. so all technicals including COT report says a move up in gold. Net positions have been increasing from march 1st week onwards . 167K to 214K
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold11.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gold22.png Size: 24 KB
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  • #1,453
  • Jun 4, 2021 12:35am Jun 4, 2021 12:35am
Quoting stringfx
My take on today's NFP. although ADP came bullish, i am expecting the US market to crash technically. ( i may be wrong and have been a lot before). It seems like we are in a wave 3 with some 1-2 1-2 waves. if this rally crosses 90.89, then i am wrong for sure. Hopefully it wont. Most people are short on eur, gbp, gold , nzd , aud etc but all these currency pairs are sitting pretty on their strong support at the moment. Since the majority of the retail are short, that provides enough liquidity for the banks and Hedge funds to go the opposite way...
sorry but logically if stock market crash, then DXY should be going up.

it's opposite move.
but i think it could be EU will drop more than raised much.
  • #1,454
  • Jun 4, 2021 12:45am Jun 4, 2021 12:45am
Quoting hans91
{quote} sorry but logically if stock market crash, then DXY should be going up. it's opposite move. but i think it could be EU will drop more than raised much.
Who gave you the idea that stock market is crashing. If you are seeing the recent dip on hourly chart, then that is only a retracement. I am speaking on a daily TF level. Lets think about it again after seeing these charts ...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow daily.png Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nasdaq 100.png Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: spx500.png Size: 31 KB
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  • #1,455
  • Jun 4, 2021 1:41am Jun 4, 2021 1:41am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Who gave you the idea that stock market is crashing. If you are seeing the recent dip on hourly chart, then that is only a retracement. I am speaking on a daily TF level. Lets think about it again after seeing these charts ... {image} {image} {image}
no idea it's correlated or not.
but this news told me that something big will be happening soon.
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/06/02/it...nds-bond-etfs/
  • #1,456
  • Jun 4, 2021 7:07am Jun 4, 2021 7:07am
Quoting hans91
{quote} no idea it's correlated or not. but this news told me that something big will be happening soon. https://wolfstreet.com/2021/06/02/it...nds-bond-etfs/
Ok if you think so ...

let's wait and watch ...
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  • #1,457
  • Jun 4, 2021 10:08am Jun 4, 2021 10:08am
Quoting stringfx
My take on today's NFP. although ADP came bullish, i am expecting the US market to crash technically. ( i may be wrong and have been a lot before). It seems like we are in a wave 3 with some 1-2 1-2 waves. if this rally crosses 90.89, then i am wrong for sure. Hopefully it wont. Most people are short on eur, gbp, gold , nzd , aud etc but all these currency pairs are sitting pretty on their strong support at the moment. Since the majority of the retail are short, that provides enough liquidity for the banks and Hedge funds to go the opposite way...
That felt GOOD !!!
STING
  • #1,458
  • Jun 4, 2021 10:09am Jun 4, 2021 10:09am
Quoting stringfx
My Take on Gold Gold has been on an uptrend from march 1st week 2021. If you check these charts, it could give you some clue as to the next forecast on gold daily. The waves have made a couple of 1-2 1-2 and then did a 3rd wave and now has declined to 38.2 for the 4th wave . we should be able to see a wave 5 coming up soon and it coincides with the weakness in dollar as well. There is a big divergence and at the moment it is sitting in a huge support from the past. so all technicals including COT report says a move up in gold. Net positions have...
And this felt even Better
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  • #1,459
  • Jun 4, 2021 10:36am Jun 4, 2021 10:36am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} That felt GOOD !!!
Yep
for the moment EURUSD is behaving as per your analysis
  • #1,460
  • Jun 4, 2021 10:44am Jun 4, 2021 10:44am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Yep for the moment EURUSD is behaving as per your analysis
It's actually DXY (Us dollar) where we all revolve around. If we can get the DXY analysis right, most of the pairs become easy to forecast technically. Fundamentals can still make problems according to country wise economic data.
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