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Plan the Trade

  • #14,001
  • May 13, 2021 4:29pm May 13, 2021 4:29pm
Quoting trader-f1
{quote} Hi Harold, I found these setups on today's session. Have I missed any of your trades? Thanks!!! {image}
the first one the red and green candles didnt double bottomed so all those candles were just inside bars next one if it was 10+ ticks then yes if not no but its still a pullback meaning the next trade took out that pullback candle meaning trend changed to down side so all those up arrows are not tradesexcept the last two that was my last win. The last up arrow was a 123 long which was correct
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  • #14,002
  • May 13, 2021 4:48pm May 13, 2021 4:48pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} the first one the red and green candles didnt double bottomed so all those candles were just inside bars next one if it was 10+ ticks then yes if not no but its still a pullback meaning the next trade took out that pullback candle meaning trend changed to down side so all those up arrows are not tradesexcept the last two that was my last win. The last up arrow was a 123 long which was correct {image}
Great explanation, thank you.
You're right, no double bottom on the first trade, only inside bars...
Second one was only 9 ticks, no trade there.
Didn't realise there was a trend change there after the first long "trade". I was considering these red candles a pullback from all the previous consecutive green candles.
Thanks again!!
  • #14,003
  • May 13, 2021 4:50pm May 13, 2021 4:50pm
“So here's the distinction between activities in which luck plays a small role and activities in which luck plays a large role: when luck has little influence, a good process will always have a good outcome. When a measure of luck is involved, a good process will have a good outcome but only over time. ”
Excerpt From: Michael J. Mauboussin. “The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing”.

Currently reading this book, finding it quite interesting...
  • #14,004
  • May 13, 2021 5:28pm May 13, 2021 5:28pm
Quoting trader-f1
{quote} Great explanation, thank you. You're right, no double bottom on the first trade, only inside bars... Second one was only 9 ticks, no trade there. Didn't realise there was a trend change there after the first long "trade". I was considering these red candles a pullback from all the previous consecutive green candles. Thanks again!!
a higher high higher low then higher high then lower low i call that a 2b
  • #14,005
  • May 14, 2021 9:01am May 14, 2021 9:01am
Traded a couple of days this week on and off because I've been busy at work. Good news because a nice contract came our way & we won it. I hate to say it but I went back to YM, nothing to do with Harolds method just my own personal risk profile at the moment. I have worked out when to trade it & when not to, which is a win for me in itself, but being pre occupied with work has really helped with the patience. And my goodness you need it to trade that.

Anyway, just wanted top pop in to let you know I hadn't blown up or anything. I hope you are all still practicing, as this is doable. But for me not every day. I have set a rule - 1 trade a day win or lose, I walk away until the next day. When I'm satisfied with those results, I'll progress to more. But until then, that's the discipline.
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #14,006
  • May 14, 2021 12:38pm May 14, 2021 12:38pm
Hello Harold, hope you had a good trading session.

Found these setups on today's session.
Not sure if the last one at the top is legit as 1-bar pullback.
Thanks for the feedback and have a good weekend!
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  • #14,007
  • May 14, 2021 4:54pm May 14, 2021 4:54pm
Quoting trader-f1
Hello Harold, hope you had a good trading session. Found these setups on today's session. Not sure if the last one at the top is legit as 1-bar pullback. Thanks for the feedback and have a good weekend! {image}
bingo you got them all
  • #14,008
  • May 18, 2021 2:49am May 18, 2021 2:49am
Hi Harold,
I have a question for you about trade management.
I remember watching some of your older videos on Youtube when you traded the retracements with limit orders.
If a trade started to crawl in negative territory, sometimes you would move your profit target to breakeven.

With the current method, are there any situations when you decide to move target or close a trade manually?

Thanks!
  • #14,009
  • May 18, 2021 6:07am May 18, 2021 6:07am
Hello,
I want to be a good trader. I recently started trading live and within 2 days, I am down almost $1000. I am doing all psychological mistakes possible
not trading the plan, changing the trade plan on trade to trade basis, over trading, revenge trading, closing trade too early, not letting profit rum, over-leveraging.
I am more or less gambling. I want to put an end to this. So I am trading with the lowest lot size possible and if I make profit consistently using smaller lots, I will increase the lot size. Wish me luck guys.
  • #14,010
  • May 18, 2021 6:19am May 18, 2021 6:19am
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  • #14,011
  • May 18, 2021 8:30am May 18, 2021 8:30am
So what is the goal? The short-term goal is to place one good trade per day. I can't think fast. So it is best for me to do only swing trade. I have to take my time to analyze the chart and wait for the right opportunity.
But the problem with swing trading is how do you know that when you make an entry, the market will go swing in your favor. You just don't know. You are basically at the mercy of market makers or big money or whoever is moving the market.
Swing trading is not easy. In hindsight, it looks so easy. Enter at this swing low, exit at that swing high. But when the price starts ticking against your direction, that's when the pressure starts building, and then you realize trading is not easy.
Once u enter the trade and even if the price has gone in your favor, life is not easy. In that, the pressure is should I close the trade now? Oh my God, what if it retraces, I will lose all the profits. I was down $500, let me capture at least $100. Then you capture $100 and then price goes blasting in your predicted direction. More heart burn
  • #14,012
  • May 18, 2021 8:45am May 18, 2021 8:45am
quick one:

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Become the casino
  • #14,013
  • May 18, 2021 11:13am May 18, 2021 11:13am
Quoting wanttobeapro
So what is the goal? The short-term goal is to place one good trade per day. I can't think fast. So it is best for me to do only swing trade. I have to take my time to analyze the chart and wait for the right opportunity. But the problem with swing trading is how do you know that when you make an entry, the market will go swing in your favor. You just don't know. You are basically at the mercy of market makers or big money or whoever is moving the market. Swing trading is not easy. In hindsight, it looks so easy. Enter at this swing low, exit at...
are you trading forex or futures? we trade the futures NQ
  • #14,014
  • May 18, 2021 11:15am May 18, 2021 11:15am
Quoting trader-f1
Hi Harold, I have a question for you about trade management. I remember watching some of your older videos on Youtube when you traded the retracements with limit orders. If a trade started to crawl in negative territory, sometimes you would move your profit target to breakeven. With the current method, are there any situations when you decide to move target or close a trade manually? Thanks!
i am not trading limit orders but buy and sell stops. When up 5 stop moved to +2 when up 16 stop moved to +12 stop and target 20. What you watched was many years ago
  • #14,015
  • May 18, 2021 11:16am May 18, 2021 11:16am
Quoting erasmus66
quick one: {image}
Nice one.
I had not realised it was possible to take a 1-bar setup from a double-bottom, thought there should be a second bar taking out its high to form a retracement...
Thanks!!
  • #14,016
  • May 18, 2021 11:19am May 18, 2021 11:19am
Quoting Divergence
{quote} i am not trading limit orders but buy and sell stops. When up 5 stop moved to +2 when up 16 stop moved to +12 stop and target 20. What you watched was many years ago
I understand that, Harold.
I was just asking if, with the current method, you sometimes decide to manually close a trade or move targets like you did in the old videos...
Thanks!
  • #14,017
  • May 18, 2021 1:44pm May 18, 2021 1:44pm
Quoting trader-f1
{quote} I understand that, Harold. I was just asking if, with the current method, you sometimes decide to manually close a trade or move targets like you did in the old videos... Thanks!
once order triggers i just leave it alone to do its thing
  • #14,018
  • May 18, 2021 4:28pm May 18, 2021 4:28pm
Quoting wanttobeapro
Hello, I want to be a good trader. I recently started trading live and within 2 days, I am down almost $1000. I am doing all psychological mistakes possible not trading the plan, changing the trade plan on trade to trade basis, over trading, revenge trading, closing trade too early, not letting profit rum, over-leveraging. I am more or less gambling. I want to put an end to this. So I am trading with the lowest lot size possible and if I make profit consistently using smaller lots, I will increase the lot size. Wish me luck guys.
Save yourself some money and demo trade. It is useless, but not when you first start. If you can't make money in demo, then you most certainly won't live. Try to (a) generate a net profit that exceeds a minimum profit potential (i.e. 20 ticks/pip) and (b) make no mistakes for five consecutive days in demo. Once you do that, try trading live. This way you ensure you have some sort of strategy.

Relative to your next post: the big secret is no one knows what will happen next. Profitability comes from certain market conditions tilting probability to somewhere above 50% for something specific to happen OR probability still below 50% but potential reward that is significantly larger than the risk. I focus on the former, but either is acceptable. Either way, probability is never 100%. Unless you accept that and truly understand that, success is impossible.

Lastly, if you are trading a size that is meaningless (as demo is), then the "pressure" doesn't build. Combine correct trading size with true acceptance of the risk and you will move closer toward potential profitability. But even then, it will likely be years before you create consistency. Not trying to dissuade you, just make you aware of the reality.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #14,019
  • May 18, 2021 8:30pm May 18, 2021 8:30pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} are you trading forex or futures? we trade the futures NQ
I am trading forex.
  • #14,020
  • May 18, 2021 8:32pm May 18, 2021 8:32pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Save yourself some money and demo trade. It is useless, but not when you first start. If you can't make money in demo, then you most certainly won't live. Try to (a) generate a net profit that exceeds a minimum profit potential (i.e. 20 ticks/pip) and (b) make no mistakes for five consecutive days in demo. Once you do that, try trading live. This way you ensure you have some sort of strategy. Relative to your next post: the big secret is no one knows what will happen next. Profitability comes from certain market conditions tilting probability...
Thanks for your advice
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