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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #801
  • May 17, 2021 7:23pm May 17, 2021 7:23pm
Quote
People make MANY MANY assumptions and they are NOT necessarily an automatic gateway to facts and knowledge and insight and positive outcomes.

Assumptions made by considering facts or past behaviors can be credible.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #802
  • May 18, 2021 12:11am May 18, 2021 12:11am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} Assumptions made by considering facts or past behaviors can be credible.



I'll let you in on a little secret ...... just because most people enjoy a type of blissful ignorance when it comes to most things, does not mean it's healthy. It's the same with assumptions.

Assumption
= a thing that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof.

When an assumption is considered to be acceptable, it is deemed as real. But in light of this, it is wise to have a back up plan.

Speculators make assumptions where hard work needs to be present. That is why most people are mentally lazy and ignorant these days. Basing things you do on an assumption and a premise that is based on that assumption is foolish.

I'll let you think about this OK.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #803
  • May 18, 2021 1:11am May 18, 2021 1:11am
Quote
Assumption
= a thing that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof.

Past = proof
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #804
  • May 18, 2021 1:18am May 18, 2021 1:18am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} Past = proof
past is only indicative.
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #805
  • May 18, 2021 1:19am May 18, 2021 1:19am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} Past = proof
past facts do not mean proof ... it is statistical fact not a proof
  • #806
  • May 18, 2021 1:22am May 18, 2021 1:22am
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} past do not mean proof ... it is statistical fact not a proof
then why does support and resistance work?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #807
  • May 18, 2021 1:32am May 18, 2021 1:32am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} then why does support and resistance work?
Look at it like this ...
Statistical facts relate to the past and describe the likelihood of similar behavior in the future.
The statistic is about a specific sample of data, the probability is for an infinitely large amount of data.
So you never know is support will hold .. there is no proof it will hold, in future you are playing not with certainty but with uncertainty - statistic versus probability
  • #808
  • May 18, 2021 1:33am May 18, 2021 1:33am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} then why does support and resistance work?
Observer effect
  • #809
  • May 18, 2021 2:56am May 18, 2021 2:56am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} then why does support and resistance work?
Just a suggestion: don't think of any aspect of TA (your S/R levels, fibs, trends, etc) as working or not working. It's not these things that "work". It's your trading plan, and your execution of that plan, the either "works" or not. It's your plan and execution that makes you money, not a S/R price level. That is why your plan should include the necessary contingencies based on your assumptions ("this S/R level has been where the market turns so I will enter the market there trade 1 with a target of X, and add trade 2 as PA unfolds in my favor to maximize my profits; and if trade 1 falters, I will exit my trade to minimize my loss on this trade"). Your assumptions must include the possibility that the past market performance will not hold up in the future. You need a complete set of assumptions, not just a single assumption that you are going to be right.
  • #810
  • Edited 5:54am May 18, 2021 3:27am | Edited 5:54am
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} Look at it like this ... Statistical facts relate to the past and describe the likelihood of similar behavior in the future. The statistic is about a specific sample of data, the probability is for an infinitely large amount of data. So you never know is support will hold .. there is no proof it will hold, in future you are playing not with certainty but with uncertainty - statistic versus probability
Hi Black,

Nice explanation. I agree with almost everything you are saying.
There is no proof because future event has not happened yet. But this does not stop us from making support and resistance line based on the past.
In trading, we have to deal with uncertainty and probabilities but we do not go about basing our trades randomly. The reason for getting into a trade is our research of the past and expectations of future.
Thanks for your time

Quote
It's not these things that "work". It's your trading plan, and your execution of that plan, the either "works" or not.

Hi G,
I cannot understand why you say that these things "work" is not the way to think.

Edit - After reading your post almost 10 times and thinking for about 1hour, I think I understood why I should think that my plan does all the work, which in turn means that I have to do the work and that way because I do not control the market, only thing I can control is my actions and thoughts. So, if I think that I have to do all the trading related work/thinking then this thought process will be more useful because now I kind of KNOW what I expect from the market and not the other way round. What market expects from me is to buy/sell at a fair price . What I should expect from the market is nothing.

Thanks for your time G.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #811
  • May 18, 2021 6:06am May 18, 2021 6:06am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} {quote} Hi G, I cannot understand why you say that these things "work" is not the way to think. Thanks for your time G.
It's another brutal truth about day trading: TA does not work. Indicators do not work. But a trader who knows how and when to apply TA, or knows how and when to use indicators, will find success in the forex. The only thing that "works" in your office, is you. If you enter a trade on a S/R line and lose money, it was not the S/R line that failed. It was your failure. If you enter on a S/R line and make money, the S/R line did not make you money. You made yourself money. There are thousands of people on FF who whine and complain about how things don't work for them. In reality, things don't work for them because they have no clue what they are doing, how to use the tools at their disposal, how to think about trading, how to respond to the market while they are in trades, etc. It's not the things like S/R that work. It's your plan and use of S/R that works. Your focus in trading is not aspects of TA but instead your plan and your execution. If you aren't making money, it's your trading plan and your execution that is off, not the market or your tools. Nothing "works", but everything can be made to work for you.

Stop thinking about is or how a S/R works. Think about how you will behave at the S/R during a trade so that you will maximize you return or mitigate a poor entry.

Edit: I just saw your edit. Yep!
  • #812
  • May 18, 2021 6:12am May 18, 2021 6:12am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} It's another brutal truth about day trading: TA does not work. Indicators do not work. But a trader who knows how and when to apply TA, or knows how and when to use indicators, will find success in the forex. The only thing that "works" in your office, is you. If you enter a trade on a S/R line and lose money, it was not the S/R line that failed. It was your failure. If you enter on a S/R line and make money, the S/R line did not make you money. You made yourself money. There are thousands of people on FF who whine and complain about how...
Quote
The only thing that "works" in your office, is you.
Yes. One should be responsible for their actions and accountable for their words.

Quote
Think about how you will behave at the S/R during a trade so that you will maximize you return or mitigate a poor entry.
Thanks for the reminder. I have to study the PA around S/R levels.

Thanks for your time
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #813
  • May 18, 2021 10:09am May 18, 2021 10:09am
Brutal truth on everything included trading is this:

Inserted Video


Reprogram yourself. You are not your body and not your brains. You have a body and have brains. Use it and tune it.
  • #814
  • May 18, 2021 5:58pm May 18, 2021 5:58pm
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} {quote} Yes. One should be responsible for their actions and accountable for their words. {quote} Thanks for the reminder. I have to study the PA around S/R levels. Thanks for your time
Hi Maverick

We can study the PA around the S/R levels but the brutal truth is price is like tennis ball in a grudge match between minor and major players.
Once a minor player like a small banker makes a move, a major banker try’s to trap them into a losing position. That first minor player retaliates by placing order blocks in front of price to stop the move then dumps opposite delta onto the market to prove their point. If the bigger player gets pissed off, they dump a even bigger order onto the chart to remove the smaller guys liquidity, therefore starving them of orders which forces them to cover their position.
Now another big player who has been watching this action decides that last big player has made a error in position size so sets out to block that last major player because they see an opportunity to profit because of new fundamental news.

And so on.

They have just created three new resistance lines, mean while your old resistance and support lines weren’t even noticed.

What R / S ?
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #815
  • May 18, 2021 6:27pm May 18, 2021 6:27pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Maverick We can study the PA around the S/R levels but the brutal truth is price is like tennis ball in a grudge match between minor and major players. Once a minor player like a small banker makes a move, a major banker try’s to trap them into a losing position. That first minor player retaliates by placing order blocks in front of price to stop the move then dumps opposite delta onto the market to prove their point. If the bigger player gets pissed off, they dump a even bigger order onto the chart to remove the smaller guys liquidity,...
Hi Rick,
It is only a match, not a grudge match.
I understand what you mean when you say order blocks in front of price. What I don't agree with is people are out there to trap someone because trap is set only for a small no. of points and big players do not play this type of game, this is only my guess, I have no idea how the bigger players trade.
In your example, I'm thinking that a new level is created because if an old S/R is where the action is then other players will also get involved and the three players will have a little say on the direction or they might even not know who they are playing against.
3 new levels have been created and that is why I want to see the PA around S/R levels. I want to see what kind of PA occurs on a S/R level which is respected.

Thanks for your time
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #816
  • May 18, 2021 6:46pm May 18, 2021 6:46pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} past is only indicative.
Hi Peter,
I did not see this post.
Past is definite, a fact. So, is any news.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #817
  • May 18, 2021 8:22pm May 18, 2021 8:22pm
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} Hi Rick, It is only a match, not a grudge match. I understand what you mean when you say order blocks in front of price. What I don't agree with is people are out there to trap someone because trap is set only for a small no. of points and big players do not play this type of game, this is only my guess, I have no idea how the bigger players trade. In your example, I'm thinking that a new level is created because if an old S/R is where the action is then other players will also get involved and the three players will have a little say on...
Hi Maverick

The problem is of course no one knows where the orders originate from but looking at the futures markets, it becomes apparent that the bigger players place multiple orders all day long to suit their objectives.

But without doubt, anyone watching live orders going to market sees big orders being trapped within minutes of being executed.
For example if a large Buy (not huge however) is placed on to the market, price will swing against that position within 1 minute of the orders execution on most occasions. Unless they follow through with multiple orders of the same delta, they will stay in the red.

Another example was EURUSD last night during that grind after London open. Looking at the futures order book where normally buyers and sellers are mostly balanced, for a two hour period there were more buyers on the books 4 to 1. They were stacking the buys just under the current price to ensure pullbacks would be blocked.
None of these orders were big but the density of them at every level under price was astonishing.

It was the actions from a big players Algo without doubt because it was too precise and impossibly quicker than the eye and mind could act.

Cheers


No, it is a grudge match.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #818
  • Edited 8:53pm May 18, 2021 8:30pm | Edited 8:53pm
Following on from my post about EURUSD
its important to know this high density of limit orders that form a wall often are not executed and therefore not recorded as volume.

So they can apply an incredible amount of liquidity to the market to block price but it never gets recorded as volume, it can be humongous.

You may call it hidden volume if you like.
Therefore volume and liquidity are not even closely related.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #819
  • Edited 9:15pm May 18, 2021 8:43pm | Edited 9:15pm
I always find it hilarious when people still insist on making up stories to justify their perspective. Data alone does not have a truthful relationship to reality it's just a convenient story building tool to keep seeing what you want to see.

At maverick, you have a lot to learn. and not a lot of time to waste.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #820
  • May 18, 2021 9:21pm May 18, 2021 9:21pm
Data is the following

Bid 20 lots
Bid 20 lots
Ask 20 lot

Result bearish move

Not sure how some people find data hilarious.
If these people had half a brain, they would have said “ All the data is of no help to a trader if they lack the capacity to interpret it”
I would give a thumbs up for that.

No, perhaps some people should start thinking a bit more.
You know the trader who thinks about thinking.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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